Trump tariffs expose Sri Lanka’s uncompetitive trade policy: Advocata

By Advocata Institute

The recent imposition of tariffs on trade by the United States on Sri Lankan exports is a wake-up call. While concerns about the bilateral US-Sri Lanka trade imbalance have been noted, a close reading of the Office of the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) findings suggests deeper grievances—rooted not only in tariffs, but in the wide array of non-tariff barriers and para-tariffs Sri Lanka continues to maintain.  

Sri Lanka’s protectionist trade regime—characterised by ad hoc levies, price controls, import quotas, midnight gazettes and opaque customs practices—has long been a source of concern for trading partners. Many of these measures lie outside the WTO framework, creating both inefficiencies and unpredictability in the trading environment. 

This moment should be seen not merely as a diplomatic challenge, but as a strategic opportunity to initiate and accelerate long-overdue trade reform. Rationalising our tariff structure, rapidly phasing out para-tariffs, addressing behind-the-border barriers, and improving trade facilitation will not only help rebuild trust with key partners like the US, but also improve Sri Lanka’s overall competitiveness and resilience as well as the appreciation of gains on trade. 

Trade policy must now move beyond protectionism and towards enabling integration into global value chains. The cost of inaction will be borne by Sri Lankan exporters, consumers, and our broader growth ambitions. 

While tariff rationalisation and the removal of non-tariff barriers are urgent priorities, they are only the first steps toward a broader, more strategic reset of Sri Lanka’s trade and competitiveness agenda. 

Global trade patterns are shifting rapidly, shaped by geopolitical rivalry, supply chain realignments, and the revival of regional trade agreements. From the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), countries are moving decisively to lock in market access, deepen integration, and improve resilience. Sri Lanka, however, risks being left behind. 

Sri Lanka must now actively consider accession to regional trade blocs and seek bilateral agreements with both traditional and emerging partners. Improving trade facilitation, digital trade readiness, and regulatory coherence will further boost productivity and investor confidence 

India and Sri Lanka share a unique and evolving economic relationship rooted in geography, history, and culture. With India projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030 and Sri Lanka seeking to stabilise and grow post-crisis, deepening bilateral economic integration offers mutual benefits. The Indo-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (FTA), in force since 2000, provides a strong foundation, enabling over 60% of Sri Lankan exports to benefit from preferential access. However, Sri Lanka has not fully realised the benefits of this agreement. Due to non-tariff barriers (NTBs), complex rules of origin, and tariff quotas on key export items—such as tea and garments—have constrained trade. Moreover, Sri Lankan manufacturers have struggled to integrate into Indian supply chains due to limited industrial alignment and technical bottlenecks. These are not reasons to abandon the agreement, but rather imperatives to improve it. 

It is time to revive and conclude the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India—a framework negotiated over 13 rounds and nearly finalised in 2008. CEPA aims to go beyond goods to cover services, investments, and regulatory cooperation. If well-designed and transparently negotiated, it could address many of the constraints holding back Sri Lankan exporters, support investment inflows, and enable service-sector expansion—particularly in IT, logistics, and education. 

Gain from greater integration

Sri Lanka can gain from greater integration, especially by tapping into India’s expanding middle-class—expected to reach 700 million by 2030—and attracting Indian investment into tradable sectors. Investment in ports, energy, IT, and hospitality can enhance Sri Lanka’s competitiveness, job creation, and foreign exchange earnings. Colombo and Trincomalee ports, grid connectivity for affordable power, and service sector integration—particularly in IT, aligned with Sri Lanka’s ambition to grow its tech workforce—are promising avenues. 

Sri Lanka’s path to deeper integration must also address domestic constraints: a narrow export base, protectionist policies, and ageing demographics. However, with targeted reforms and investment, Sri Lanka can participate in India’s supply chains through niche products and intra-industry trade, rather than competing head-on. Indian firms investing in Sri Lanka can re-export to India, leveraging their networks while transferring skills and technology locally. 

Policymakers can institutionalise collaboration through a bilateral Economic Cooperation Council or joint task force focused on trade, investment, and regulatory alignment. Regular exchanges among academics, think tanks, and officials can help adapt successful Indian policy lessons to Sri Lanka’s context—paving the way for shared growth and regional stability. 

Globally, countries are deepening ties to protect against trade shocks and seize new markets. The EU has accelerated negotiations with ASEAN states and Mercosur; Canada is expanding its trade footprint across Asia; and blocs like the CPTPP and RCEP are fostering tighter regional integration. If Sri Lanka remains on the sidelines, it risks being left out of emerging trade frameworks that will define global commerce over the next decade. 

Deepening trade ties with India is not without challenges. But the alternative—continued stagnation and vulnerability to arbitrary tariffs or shifting investor sentiment—is far worse. Sri Lanka must move beyond domestic hesitation and re-engage India in good faith. A renewed CEPA—anchored in mutual benefit, transparency, and safeguards for sensitive sectors—can serve as a cornerstone of a modern, outward-oriented economic strategy. 

We urge the Government of Sri Lanka to seize this opportunity—push for the implementation of CEPA, invest in domestic capacity to meet quality standards, and remove barriers that hold our firms back from regional value chains. If we act decisively, Sri Lanka can transform a once-contentious FTA into a platform for inclusive growth and sustained global relevance. 

The Advocata Institute strongly urges the Sri Lankan Government to eliminate para-tariffs such as CESS and the Ports and Airports Levy (PAL), which have long hindered Sri Lanka’s trade competitiveness. These additional taxes that sit on top of general import duties increase costs for businesses making it expensive for inputs for manufacturing, disincentives entrepreneurs in taking risks in the global market ultimately making Sri Lankan exports less competitive in global markets. These tariffs also make day to day items expensive for the average Sri Lankan to serve a narrow interest of people. Removing para-tariffs and accelerating the current program of tariff reform to be more uniform would not only cushion the impact of US tariffs but also enhance Sri Lanka’s overall economic resilience. 

US trade tariff policy 

There is growing concern over the US government’s proposed tariff hikes, particularly the 44% tariff on Sri Lanka. These tariffs, part of a broader 10% universal duty on all imports, threaten to disrupt trade relationships, impact key industries such as the apparel sector, and exacerbate economic challenges for developing economies reliant on US markets. The new trade measures by the Trump administration include a universal 10% tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, and additional “reciprocal tariffs” targeting specific countries with which the US has significant trade deficits, set to begin 9 April. Sri Lanka is set to be hit with a 44% tariff. The US is Sri Lanka’s largest export destination, accounting for approximately 23% of total merchandise exports in 2024, with apparel making up over 70% of these exports. The new tariff threatens the competitiveness of Sri Lankan garments in the US market, potentially leading to reduced orders. 

Trump’s trade policy is largely driven by domestic political pressures, and his desire to tap into populist sentiments of his electoral coalition, positioning himself to be the protector of American industry and Jobs. Another driver of the policy is the US strategic competition with China and the Trump administration’s desire to use tariffs as a blunt diplomatic instrument to assert its influence in a fractured world. 

These policies are however based on flawed economics. The notion that imposing tariffs will “balance” trade deficits between countries is rooted in outdated mercantilist thinking. Just as businesses and families buy goods and services from some people and sell their labour and products to others, so do countries. The idea that trade has to be balanced between two countries is as flawed as thinking that just because we buy our groceries from the supermarket we must also sell to them in order to benefit from the transaction. 

Illogical as they are, Trump policies expose the protectionist policies of Sri Lanka, and the country’s lack of export diversification and lack of integration into regional value chains. 

Sri Lanka’s protectionism

 For nearly 20 years, Sri Lanka has been engaging in a similar protectionist policy regime. Protecting domestic industrialists at the cost of the competitiveness of the overall economy. 

With Sri Lanka facing a 44% tariff, the country’s apparel and textile sector—one of its largest export industries—will suffer significant losses. Given Sri Lanka’s dependence on US demand, these trade measures, could lead to: 

1. Reduced competitiveness in key export industries. 

2. Global supply chain disruptions as buyers shift to countries with lower tariffs. 

3. Declines in investment and employment, further straining an already fragile economy. 

Similar consequences will be felt in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Myanmar, where heavy tariffs will challenge their economic stability. The entire South Asian region faces risks of declining foreign investment and trade uncertainty, further slowing economic recovery efforts. 

Sri Lanka’s dependence on a few export markets is a direct result of pursuing a failed import substitution policy in the guise of ‘industrial policy’ that has caused corruption, political dysfunction and incentives domestic entrepreneurs and capital to produce for the domestic market in order ‘to save dollars’. Ironically, the logic that has shaped Sri Lanka’s trade policy is similar to the one pursued by Trump. 

Advocata Institute recommendations 

To strengthen Sri Lanka trade competitiveness and mitigate the impact of US tariffs, Advocata Institute recommends the following policy actions: 

1. Eliminate all para-tariffs on imports signalling Sri Lanka’s openness to trade with the world. 

2. Negotiate with the US on tariff levels with US imports with US tariff levels to promote fairer trade conditions.

3. Accelerate the program to move towards a more uniform and a simplified tariff facilitating trade and eliminating room for corruption. 

Supporting MSMEs requires more than parate suspension

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

The Government has decided to extend the suspension of parate law until 31 March 2025, aiming to support Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) as they recover from the setbacks of the economic crisis.

Parate execution is a Roman-Dutch law that allows Licensed Commercial Banks (LCBs) to sell mortgaged property kept as collateral. The term ‘parate’ originates from Dutch and means ‘immediate’.

Under the Recovery of Loans by Banks (Special Provisions) Act No.4 of 1990, parate execution empowers banks to recover unpaid debts by selling assets without undergoing judicial processes.

The previous Government introduced the suspension and the current Government appears to be continuing the policy without fully recognising the potential harm it could cause to the MSME sector. While the suspension has been extended until March 2025, there is a high likelihood of further extensions being requested in subsequent months.

Data accessed up to November 2023 indicates that only 557 parate cases were executed in 2023 (although the MSME Chamber claims the actual figure is 1,140 cases). The total value of these executions was Rs. 38 billion, which represents just 0.4% of total loans and only 2.7% of total bad loans. Even if the number of cases were doubled, the overall value remains insignificant.

Based on these statistics, it is evident that the suspension of parate execution does little to support MSMEs, as the affected segment represents a very small portion of the sector.

MSMEs are the backbone of Sri Lanka’s economy, constituting 99% of business establishments and contributing to 75% of employment. Supporting MSMEs requires broader initiatives beyond suspending parate execution, which is essential for safeguarding depositors’ funds in the current financial framework.

Banks primarily lend using depositors’ money. Therefore, when loans go unpaid, banks face significant challenges in recovering funds to repay depositors. Parate execution has historically served as a legal safety mechanism for banks, albeit not an ideal solution.

On the flip side, when parate execution is suspended, it discourages the majority of borrowers who struggle to repay their loans on time. These borrowers, who represent the largest segment of customers, may question why they should meet their obligations when a smaller group is granted exemptions. 

This creates a moral hazard and could encourage new loan applicants to skip payments, knowing the repercussions for non-payment are minimal.

Furthermore, if depositors perceive that banks lack sufficient legal provisions to ensure the security of their funds, they may seek alternative channels for their savings and become increasingly reluctant to deposit money in banks. This could destabilise the financial system over time.

In the absence of parate execution, banks may take precautionary measures, such as tightening lending criteria, raising interest rates for riskier sectors, and prioritising lending to existing or prime customers. 

These steps could harm new entrants to the MSME sector, limiting their access to credit or burdening them with high interest rates, which reduces their competitiveness and stifles economic growth.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s Financial Stability Review for 2024 highlights that while Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) are declining, the rate remains high at over 13% as of Q2 2024, with more than Rs. 1,200 billion classified as non-performing. 

Although the tourism sector is booming, industries like transportation and manufacturing continue to report significantly higher NPL ratios than the industry average.

In the long term, the Government needs to prioritise the introduction of bankruptcy laws, enabling struggling businesses to efficiently settle liabilities and pivot to new ventures without undue delays. Such a framework would balance the interests of borrowers, banks, and depositors more effectively.

The continuation of the suspension of parate execution risks undermining the banking sector, endangering depositors’ funds, and harming MSMEs by fostering higher interest rates and restricted access to credit. 

It is time for policymakers to consider alternatives that promote sustainable economic recovery while maintaining financial stability

Graph 1 

Economic sectors with high NPL ratios 

Graph 2 -

NPL ratio

Scrambled supply: How maize, markets and policy cracked egg prices

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

Just after the election, social media chatter quickly shifted to egg prices, which had dropped by about Rs. 10. Many speculated that a kickback had ended, causing the price drop. However, a few days later, the prices shot up again by Rs. 10 and memes started circulating, joking that now the hens were taking the kickback.

But there is a deeper story behind egg prices and the poultry industry in Sri Lanka. The primary cost in poultry is the cost of feed, with maize being the main ingredient, making up about 60% of the feed by weight. The cost of maize accounts for around 45-60% of the total cost of poultry production.

In Sri Lanka’s poultry market, 40% is through wet markets while 60% is through formal markets, which maintain high standards to supply to hotel chains. At one point, we were even exporting poultry products to the Maldives.

When it comes to eggs, however, the cost factors are front-loaded. Layer chickens must be imported and raised to maturity, which takes longer than broiler chickens. The cost of feeding these layer chickens, especially with maize prices being so high, significantly increases production costs.

After the economic crisis, inflation caused maize prices to soar from Rs. 45 to Rs. 165 per kg, pushing up poultry product prices. Our local maize market, which is the main cost driver for the poultry industry, is tricky.

While Sri Lanka requires about 500,000 MT of maize annually, we only produce 300,000 MT, leaving a shortfall of 200,000 MT, which is imported through a licensing process. This system creates a cartel of importers, driving up maize prices and, consequently, chicken and egg prices.

Maize imports are also heavily taxed, including Ports and Airport Development Levy (PAL), Value-Added Tax (VAT), and Customs duty, further increasing costs. Meanwhile, local maize production is inefficient, yielding only about 1.5 MT per hectare compared to the global average of 2.5 MT per hectare. This low productivity forces farmers to encroach on forests to increase their yield, creating environmental challenges.

In response to the crisis, the Government imposed price controls on eggs. Since farmers had already invested in layer chickens, they were unable to maintain them under the price controls and ended up selling the chickens for meat. This led to a reduction in egg production, driving prices higher.

In the formal market, producers with thin profit margins halted capacity improvements, keeping production stagnant. As a result, we were unable to expand exports, as there was no capital to fund growth. The combination of price controls, maize import licensing, and high tariffs led to low production and high prices.

Eventually, the Government resorted to importing eggs from India. This highlights how distortions in the maize market, coupled with tariffs and inefficient agriculture, have hurt Sri Lanka’s poultry industry.

Despite all the costs, including shipping, insurance, and handling, the cost of an imported egg is still cheaper than locally produced eggs, mainly due to irregularities in the maize market.

Over time, the market began to stabilise. The drop in egg prices right after the election was likely due to lower demand during election week, especially from eateries and bakeries. As eggs are perishable, the surplus likely drove prices down. However, as soon as prices fell, people began buying more than usual, which quickly drove demand back up and prices along with it.

While it’s possible that some farmers and wholesalers may have hoarded eggs, the primary reason for high egg prices lies in Government interference in the maize market and price controls. The well-intentioned move to make protein more affordable through price controls has had the opposite effect – something that happens with many policy decisions.

The new Government must focus on making decisions based on data, facts, and economics, not just good intentions. In economics, good intentions don’t guarantee good outcomes.

Non-negotiable reforms for election manifestos

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

The year 2024 will be an election year. The general flow of events is that each political party and candidate will launch a manifesto of a grand-scale and present their plans for the people and the country. Most of these promises will not be implemented or will only be half implemented. In certain cases, the opposite of what was promised will be implemented. 

Most manifestos are presented in general terms with a target of 20 years ahead with little data. Many manifestos across all party lines are wish lists with no action plans.

In my view, this time there is a slight difference. 

Regardless of the party formation or whoever the presidential candidate will be, there are few reforms that are non-negotiable. Ideally, across all manifestos, there are five basic ideas which have to be the common denominator.

Strengthening social safety nets 

Following the worst economic crisis in Sri Lanka’s history and high inflation, about four million people have fallen below the poverty line. That puts seven million people under poverty. The recent Household Income and Expenditure Survey carried out by LIRNEasia and the World Bank indicates significant poverty levels and aftereffects of poverty due to the economic crisis. As a conscientious society, we need to take care of our poor people with the social safety net. 

The social safety net is not just an allowance. It is a system and a process of targeting the right people, providing an exit route, and with proper administration. The current Aswesuma programme is making some progress with World Bank assistance, but regardless of the political leader who comes to power, it is a non-negotiable condition that social safety nets have to be strengthened and improved. 

The current process has too many loopholes which have to be addressed and improved. Simplifying the process, providing the exit route, and monitoring and depoliticising has to be a continuous effort from the new leadership of the country.

SOE reforms 

Thus far, mandatory SOE reforms have been painfully slow. Many parties with vested interests are trying to delay it until the election. However, the continuation of SOE reforms is a must. 

Colossal losses, interference in the private sector, intervening in markets, creating an unfair playing field, and inefficiencies are a few reasons why SOEs played a pivotal role in Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. SOEs are vehicles of corruption and have diluted entrepreneurship and Foreign Direct Investments significantly. Without reforming SOEs, the future of Sri Lanka appears to be bleak. 

The principles announced by the SOE Restructuring Unit are in the right direction, but the SOE Act and reforms of the Ceylon Electricity Board, Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, and many other networking industries are a must. 

Anti-corruption and governance reforms

Execution of anti-corruption laws and governance reforms is another area which has no room for negotiation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Governance Diagnostic and many other locally-developed reports on governance provide direction on what needs to be done. 

Strengthening our Judiciary system, transparency and accountability in our tax system, removing tax exemptions, and repealing the Special Commodity Levy and the Strategic Development Act too falls under governance and anti-corruption reforms, as those acts provide the legal opportunity for corruption. 

There is a strong sentiment from people on the contribution of corruption to the crisis, so taking long-term measures regarding corruption is a must. Anti-corruption and governance reforms go beyond going after corrupt politicians. Rather, it is a system and framework for minimising government influence. Some reforms are complementary and reforming SOEs is also a key component of anti-corruption and governance reforms, as these SOEs play a vital role in corruption.

Following the IMF programme and debt restructuring 

Given the international financial architecture, we have no option other than sticking to the IMF programme. We can negotiate some of the actions that we have promised, but overall indicative targets and reforms have to be maintained. Otherwise, it will be yet another incomplete IMF programme and the debt restructuring process will be in jeopardy. 

Debt restructuring and the continuation of the IMF programme are very much interconnected. At the moment, external stakeholders are concerned about political instability and in fact, the IMF’s first review identifies the political risks for the continuation of the IMF programme. A commitment from any political leader on sticking to the programme will help Sri Lanka in rebuilding relationships with the world.  

Trade reforms and joining global supply chains 

We have to grow our economy to emerge from this crisis. Tax revisions make it likely that growth will slow down and the only solution to grow small island nations like Sri Lanka is through global trade. Our problems regarding global trade are mainly the problems in our own regulations and systems. 

We have to remove our para-tariffs and simplify the tariff structure for a few tariff lines. Not only will this help trade, but consumers will also have a greater choice of goods and services as well as competitive prices. 

On the other hand, the Government can improve the revenue from Customs since at the moment, the high tariffs are a main reason for revenue leakage in the form of corruption. Trade reforms are about growth, minimising corruption, encouraging exports, and assuring reasonable prices. Even at present, after very high taxes, there are levies such as the Special Commodity Levy, Ports and Airports Development Levy, and a huge array of taxes which hinder the competitive nature of our economy.

These five policies, in my view, are non-negotiable. If any administration deviates from them, it is very likely that we will fall back a few miles behind where we started. 

Understanding the economic crisis: Corruption a symptom, not the root cause

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

The most common rationalisation of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is to blame corruption, which is a complete mischaracterisation. This is not to say that corruption had no part in the crisis, but to place the blame solely on corruption would be inaccurate. In my view, there has been an economic policy problem which incentivised corruption, hence that is a problem that we have to fix, rather than trying to fix corruption. Corruption is just a symptom and policy is the root cause.

However, policy problems cannot be analysed in a vacuum, because simply having a policy does not mean everything will be alright. Policy has to be analysed based on the strength and stability of institutions.

One good example is the Fiscal Management (Responsibility) Act No.3 of 2003. According to the act (policy), the Government cannot exceed the budget deficit above 5% of the GDP. Since the act has enacted every budget we have presented, our budget deficit has been above 5%. Nothing has happened to any government for violating their own rules. We have the policy, but we do not have the institutions to enforce it or the stability or capacity for institutions to abide by the policy.

The anti-corruption commision is another good example. Many countries that wished to eradicate corruption have set up anti-corruption units, but when anti-corruption units are also corrupt, since they have been established by the existing powers, it is self-defeating.

Therefore, thinking that we can avoid an economic crisis or overcome the crisis by focusing on corruption as the sole measure shows a lack of depth. We have to evaluate the system somewhat more broadly to fix it.

A common question people ask is, “where are the assets for the loans we have taken?”. In that case, people think we have taken loans and syphoned that money out without investing. The deficit of the value of the projects and the loans we have taken is generally considered to be that which has been spent on corruption. While there have definitely been kickbacks from the projects, most of the money we have borrowed has been borrowed not for projects but to pay the interests of the loans we had borrowed before.

From our debt, about 74% has been used to pay interest or for exchange depreciation (40% for interest and 33% for currency depreciation). Since 1999, most of our debt has gone towards bad policies in the form of interest and for the exchange rate. At the point of borrowing money, similar to what happened in the Central Bank bond scam, there can be corruption, but the corruption is often an outcome of a bad policy or a poor system rather than a standalone problem.

Thus, rather than thinking about jailing the corrupt, it is easier to fill the gaps in the system where corruption takes place. This is where a market system is needed. The market system has the power to make the players of corruption uncompetitive, because corruption is costly. When the cost is too high, provided the consumer has a choice, they can shift to alternatives. Therefore, it is vitally important to set the market system straight and keep entry and exit barriers at a minimum.

Framework of the market system to think about corruption

How do we decide the project?

Generally, corruption takes place in projects and the decision-making processes of the projects. These mainly come as unsolicited proposals. Someone proposing a solution for a problem that even the government is unaware of falls under the category of unsolicited proposals. The government has the discretionary power to decide which projects are to be done and which projects are to be set aside. This is how quite a lot of construction projects, instead of education and healthcare, get priority.

Most projects under SOEs also fall under this category, which is why SOEs are considered vehicles of corruption and SOE reform is a must. Adhering to the National Physical Plan and getting it through Parliament is one way to minimise it.

Who does the project?

When the project is decided, the selection of the implementation partner is the next window for corruption. Again, it can be awarded through unsolicited proposals or there can be technical corruption where the specifications of the supplies are in favour of a selected supplier.

Unsolicited and competitive processes violate the market system, and on a technical level, corruption is very hard to detect even at the legal stage. However, with an open process on complaints and reevaluation, there is still room for improvement. There are also cases where even the competitive process is established due to a lack of trust in the system; the most suitable person doesn’t want to apply and go through the process.

Deciding on the price

The other point of corruption is when it comes to deciding on the price. It could be the interest rates on bonds, the contract value, or the price of the energy purchase. Price discovery is also a market-based process. When prices are allowed to be set without a market-based approach, there is room for corruption. That is how most of the energy agreements were signed and we borrowed money to pay the price. Rather than trying to fix the individual involved in corruption because the next person could repeat these same actions, it is advisable to fix the problem first.

Deciding the quality of materials

The fourth case is where even the people selected through the competitive process simply use inferior quality products. Our experiences in poor quality medicine at the Ministry of Health is just one example.

Corruption can take place in projects or in processes based on any of the above or a combination of any of the four. However, this takes place only when the decision-making power or discretionary power is given to someone who is not the owner of the risk or the investment. Otherwise, it leaves competition out or maintains information asymmetry for someone to benefit from.

In a market system where competition is given priority and prices are allowed to reflect the scarcity value of money, it naturally leaves corruption behind, but creating the information balance is not easy.

Therefore, while no market or government is perfect, a market system is a better system to avoid corruption, rather than expecting the government to eradicate corruption, since the government has no interest or incentive to do business or to eradicate corruption.

It is not about the private sector versus the government – it is all about a market system which incentivises transparency and minimises room for corruption. Our continuous failure to build that system was the reason for our fall (economic crisis) and we can only overcome it by fixing it, since it is the root cause, and not by fixing the symptom called corruption.

(Source: CBSL, Advocata)

VAT: The good, the bad and the solutions

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

The Value Added Tax (VAT) increase from 15% to 18% and the removal of about 95 items from the VAT exempted list to a VAT applicable list has raised concern among politicians and people alike. 

When taxes change too often, public confusion and erosion of tax revenue both have to be expected. VAT was once 8% in Sri Lanka and then revised to 12%. It was again increased to 15% and finally now to 18%. The VAT threshold was once at Rs. 12 million and later increased to Rs. 300 million. Currently it is at Rs. 80 million and expected to be reduced to Rs. 60 million. 

When the VAT threshold was increased to Rs. 300 million from Rs. 12 million, the number of individuals registered for VAT dropped to 8,000 from 28,000. Our policymakers are discussing expanding the tax base after diluting our tax base through our own inconsistent policies. 

One of the key principles of taxation is stability, according to the Tax Foundation. The other principles are simplicity, transparency, and neutrality. When tax rates and thresholds are changed often, thIMFe markets and individuals react and tax revenue will erode. 

A complicated context 

Sri Lanka’s context is sadly more complicated than many other cases. We have given a commitment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on increasing our tax revenue because our interest costs are extremely high. Most of the interest is inherited due to bad financial management over the years and there is very little meaning in blaming each other. 

On one hand, the Government has no other option but to increase revenue through taxation. However, on the other hand, when taxes are increased the economy will contract. Growth, which is also a key requirement for us to emerge from the crisis, will be affected due to the lowered purchasing power of the people. When the economy contracts, tax revenue will also start to decline.  

Given the perennial weaknesses in our tax administration, the Government has selected the most convenient option of VAT to be increased, since it can be collected easily compared to other taxes. VAT is considered to be better compared to other taxes such as the Nation Building TAX (NBT) or the Social Security Levy (SSL), which are considered to be cascading taxes, where throughout the economic process one tax is applied on top of the other. 

This leads to a situation where the effective tax rate becomes very high, but with VAT, tax will only be applicable for the value added throughout the supply chain. Also, high income earners generally contribute a higher VAT in total as VAT is a consumption tax. People with higher incomes tend to consume more, so the more they spend, the more taxes the Government can recoup. 

The negative impact of VAT can be witnessed when it is applied to food items. The poorest of society gets adversely impacted, since their percentage of expenditure on food is very high compared to people who fall into higher income brackets. 

There will be considerable impact on the overall prices for the common people with the new VAT revisions. The price of petrol and diesel is expected to increase by about Rs. 50-60 (provided the other taxes are not changed and global fuel prices remain the same). LP Gas (12.5 kg cylinder) will increase by about Rs. 500-600. 

Prices of solar panels, electronic items, laptops, and mobile phones are expected to rise. This will also have an impact on inflation as well, but we need to keep in mind that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. With high prices, people may consider cheaper alternatives and supply and demand will readjust, provided we keep our monetary policy right. 

Solutions 

A key solution to bringing down prices of food items is to remove the Special Commodity Levy (SCL) applied to these items. The SCL not only increases prices, but the provisions provided to the minister to impose and remove the SCL overnight opens significant room for corruption. The recent increase of the SCL on sugar to Rs. 50 from 25 cents is a good example of how an overnight gazette creates room for corruption and passes the burden to the people. 

Other taxes on food items including CESS, Ports and Airport Development Levy (PAL), and many other para-tariffs should be removed. There is a myth that productivity can be improved by imposing tariffs on domestic food items. If that is the case, our industries for milk, yoghurt, cheese, and many other food items have to be extremely productive and efficient. Instead of domestic product growth, we see the same producers ask the Government for further protection. 

Tax competitiveness as a framework 

 Moving forward, Sri Lanka has to look at tax competitiveness as a framework for thinking about taxes. In the global context, everything is about competitiveness, including the tax system. As an example, if corporate tax is 25% in competing markets in the region, we cannot increase the corporate tax to 30%, only considering the revenue requirement of the Government. 

At the same time, we cannot compromise our healthcare and education systems, which help to develop better skills through taxpayer money, by bringing taxes unnecessarily down and compromising our tax revenue. In a market system, competition and prices play a key role, and the same is applicable for taxes, FDIs, and many other variables. 

We have to first take the basic steps of improving tax administration. We then have to rationalise our expenditure and spend where we need to spend, thereafter raising revenue by being competitive. A VAT increase to increase Government revenue alone will not solve our macro instability. We have to ensure macro stability by being competitive in all aspects of the economy.  

Looming political and economic challenges ahead of elections

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

“We know what should be done to get the country on the right track, but we don’t know how to get power back after implementing the policies.” This is a popular statement I hear often when I meet quite a few politicians. The truth is that politicians do not know how to get back power because it’s not an attractive solution.

The popular policies that bring politicians into power are the very same that inspire their ousting at the very next election cycle. People hardly object to good policies unless the same politicians instigate false propaganda. The Right to Information (RTI) Act was just one such instance.

As an election is due next year, it is vital to understand and remember our priorities, otherwise our politicians are likely to take a wrong turn and pass the buck back to the people.

In an election year, the behaviour of any political party is to completely abandon rational economic reforms and play to populist narratives that result in outcomes that are the complete opposite, with the motive of coming to power.

Bringing down fuel prices and announcing other types of subsidies are common tactics. This is harmful, especially when those benefits cannot be financed sustainably, or in some situations, brought into life in the first place.

Even if it does not retain power, the newly-elected government will have a tough time preventing plans that have already been put in place and enacting better policies.

Political risk

In the current context, we run a very high risk of our politicians bringing us back to square one; i.e. another economic crisis. This, given the fact that 2024 is set to be an election year, is a recipe for disaster.

All political parties will shift their focus to slowly becoming more populist rather than being driven by objectivity. Therefore, the real risk is going back to another debt restructuring if we fail to grow the economy and our exports.

There are many politicians who do not understand the gravity of the need for reforms. Regardless of which party or coalition comes to power, there are fundamental issues that need to be addressed.

The process is more or less the same as handing over a house with structural issues from one tenant (government) to the other. The new tenant cannot function because neither the previous tenant nor the owner (people) is willing to fix the fundamental problems.

Risk of a second debt default

Given the unstable political environment coupled with a country already going through debt restructuring, the risks of a second debt default are astronomically high. As we are still struggling with finalising the first debt restructuring, adding a second one into the mix will leave us in dire straits.

The second one will undoubtedly be harder, especially given the significant increase in interest rates and being unable to print money with the new Central Bank Act. If we fail to raise money through markets in order to roll over debt and if we are not open to increasing interest rates, the only option we will be left with is to default again. At that point, most likely there will be pressure once again to amend the newly-enacted Central Bank Act to allow money printing.

Of course, that would be an inflationary measure and we will be back at square one with a balance of payments crisis, debt crisis, humanitarian crisis, and likely a banking crisis too.

Solutions: A common minimum programme for reforms

Reforms are easier in the first 100 days of any government. If we fail to enact reforms within the first 100 days, more often than not, no reforms will take place. Failing to undertake reforms in 100 days means a cost of a five-year delay plus many bad policy decisions in the middle, which are costly and difficult to reverse.

Ideally, if key political parties come to an agreement before an election on selected reforms and execute them regardless of who comes into power, it will at least ensure some stability for Sri Lanka. There are many ideas that all political parties have in common.

Regarding State-Owned Enterprise reforms, there is no political party that says the Government should run an airline. Even National People’s Power Economic Advisor Dr. Anil Jayantha, in an interview with Advocata, noted that they did not believe the Government should do any business with hotels.

Accordingly, there are many other similar areas where we can arrive at an agreement with little difficulty. Therefore, regardless of who wins elections, people can win and sustain some of the economic reforms.

The truth is that reforms are inevitable if Sri Lanka needs to move forward and for any political party to sustain its power. Implementing bad policies, especially considering the status of our country, will make it very difficult to sustain power, because then we will be setting the standard for a new normal in economics and politics.

Price controls are not the way to bring down the price of chicken

By Pravena Yogendra

Originally appeared on Newswire, Lanka Business Online, the Morning and Daily News

Most HoReCa channels in Sri Lanka sell a packet of chicken rice and curry at a higher price than a comparative packet of fish rice and curry. The price of a portion of chicken rice and curry is ~30% more than that of a portion of fish rice and curry. This differential has remained over time, as this existed in the pre-crisis environment as well, albeit at low prices.

Is this because of a difference in production costs or due to undue policy intervention by the government?

Sri Lanka has a long history of implementing price controls dating back to the 1970s. In recent years, the government has implemented price controls on various essential goods, including food, fuel, and pharmaceuticals. While the resulting lower prices may have been popular among consumers, they have had significant unintended consequences on the economy.

Such price controls create distortions in the marketplace by interfering with the pricing mechanism, thereby preventing resources from being allocated efficiently. The government’s current effort to control the retail price of chicken is a case in point.

Chicken and eggs are the most affordable and culturally accepted meat source in Sri Lanka. The domestic poultry industry produces 240,000 MT of chicken per year, with current per capita consumption standing at 10.8 kg. 

The recent economic events, such as the forex shortage and the ban on chemical fertilizers, led to a series of events that artificially inflated chicken prices, making them expensive for regular consumption. As a result, the state felt the need to intervene by controlling the price of broiler chicken.  

However, these price controls have only been imposed on the organized/ formal market. Industry specialists classify the domestic chicken market into the formal/ organized market, which accounts for 60% of the market, and the informal/ wet market, accounting for the remaining 40%. Branded broiler chicken producers cater to the organized market, and small and medium-scale poultry farmers cater to the wet market.

The formal market comprises highly productive tax-paying private-sector poultry operators whose products are on par with international quality, health, and safety standards, presenting an excellent opportunity to expand into export markets. This is proven by the fact that these poultry operators supply to sectors that insist on high-quality standards, such as multinational hotels and restaurants operating domestically and abroad.

However, the pricing restrictions imposed on these more productive players have created a situation where the producers cannot pass on their increased production costs to consumers, resulting in them facing compressed profit margins. The short-term implication would be a lower placement of chicks, resulting in a contraction in production, leading to shortages in the market. The medium to long-term significance would be a decline in investments channeled into capacity expansion, which also reduces innovation and technological progress.  

 It is also important to note that since the wet market players form the larger part of the industry, they are the price setters; and the branded players must follow suit to maintain demand for their products. Wet market chicken prices are mainly determined by the price and availability of other protein substitutes. 

Taxation significantly impacts the retail price of chicken while the burden on fish is lower. Fish is VAT exempt. The major source of costs is labour and entrepreneurship with inputs such as fuel (kerosene) having low tax incidence. In comparison, chicken is subject to VAT, with most producers lying above the VAT threshold of LKR 80Mn. The major cost is the cost of feed which is subject to VAT. It is estimated that both direct and indirect taxes account for 19.6% of the retail price of chicken. The tax treatment between the two alternatives significantly impacts relative prices, disadvantaging chicken over fish. This non-equitable VAT treatment of the two substitutes is expected to be further exacerbated in January 2024 as VAT rates are set to increase by 3% to 18%. 

Although the state is focusing on controlling the final retail price of chicken, the real issue lies in inflated input costs. Poultry producer’s input costs have escalated due to the depreciation of the rupee, higher staff costs, and higher admin costs. However, manufacturers' main point of contention has been the feed cost.

Maize is the largest component of poultry feed, accounting for ~60% of weight and 45% of feed cost. Although nutritionists discovered that rice can be used as a 1 for 1 substitute for maize, its utilization for purposes other than human consumption remains highly regulated, resulting in minimal availability

Domestic maize prices are currently at abnormally high levels as maize production is still reeling from the after-effects of the fertilizer crisis.

Sri Lanka's annual maize requirement is ~500,000 MT, of which ~300,000 MT are produced domestically. Roughly ~210,000 MT are cultivated during the primary Maha season and another ~90,000 MT during the secondary Yala season. The yield on maize cultivation by smallholders is currently 1.5 tons per acre. However, industry experts believe that a yield of 2.5 tons per acre can be achieved if correct farming practices are deployed. A kg of maize currently retails at ~LKR 160. Pre-crisis, it used to retail at LKR 45.

Industry practitioners believe that several efforts can be undertaken to improve the productivity of domestic maize cultivation, thereby bringing costs down. A higher yield can be achieved if proper agricultural land is utilized. Currently, maize farming is conducted on encroached forest land. Due to red tape, the 17,000 hectares allocated by the Mahaweli scheme for agriculture remain largely unutilized.

Farmers can also yield more if maize fields are irrigated instead of rainfed. Experts also believe that the right farming practices are not undertaken as proper soil analysis and spraying are not performed.

Currently, maize can be imported from Pakistan at USD 250-260 per tonne, which works out to LKR 110 per kg, including a special commodity levy of LKR 25. The SCL is a contentious tax and was even highlighted in the recently issued IMF technical assistance report, citing corruption. 

The SCL is a seasonal, quantity tax imposed on certain essential commodities as a composite tax in lieu of other prevailing levies such as customs duty, VAT, EDB, CESS, Excise duty, PAL, and NBT. The SCL has come under fire as it is subjective and arbitrary, imposed at the discretion of the finance minister, creating uncertainty among industry stakeholders.

In the case of maize, seeds imported for the purpose of animal feed production have been subjected to SCL during lean production periods, to facilitate imports. When the SCL is not in effect, a general duty of 20%, CESS of 30%, VAT of 15%, and SSCL of 2.5% are imposed at the border. 

Therefore, not only does the SCL drive up the cost of chicken, but it also creates uncertainty due to the unpredictability and subjective nature of the tax

Maize continues to remain a controlled import that can only be imported by license holders. Licenses to import maize are issued by the import controller based on recommendations issued by the agricultural minister, who issues said recommendations based on his view of the industry’s maize requirement. 

Sri Lanka's organized players are second to none in the poultry breeding process- they have adopted international quality standards regarding feed conversion ratio, mortality rates, farm productivity, etc., putting them on par with foreign players. In addition to being highly efficient, the industry also contains sufficient productive capacity to be self-sufficient, thereby rendering the case for importation redundant.

The industry also maintains biosecurity standards and adheres to industry and farming best practice to ensure healthy, safe, and high-quality output that match the quality and certifications required by export markets. 

The government should step back from intervening in the market for both maize and broiler and allow the magic of the hidden hand to do the heavy lifting. Not only will this lead to more stable prices, but competition will drive further innovation and productivity improvements, leading to more production and lower prices.

Feasibility of estimating economic recovery via LKR appreciation, CSE performance

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

Sri Lankans base their assessment of the economy’s performance on two crucial factors. One is on the operations of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) and the other is on the exchange rate – the appreciation or depreciation of the LKR to the USD.

However, neither are the right indicators to measure the performance of the economy. The companies listed on the CSE are insignificant compared to the number of business establishments in Sri Lanka.

Around 99% of the business establishments in Sri Lanka are Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) but they are not listed on the CSE. However, the MSME sector accounts for 75% of all employment. Large firms are responsible only for 25% of all employment, but not all large corporations are listed on the CSE.

For instance, MAS Holdings, which is one of Sri Lanka’s leading apparel manufacturers and employers in the sector, is not on the CSE. Moreover, just before the economic downturn in Sri Lanka, there was a bull run at the CSE. A performing economy is measured through the reduction of poverty and when the populace contributes to solving an economic problem.

The second popular measure to assess economic performance is the exchange rate. Recently, with the appreciation of the LKR, there is a sentiment that the economy is recovering. Previously, when the LKR was depreciating, the perception was that the economy was not doing so well.

Appreciation or depreciation of a currency has its own consequences, but connecting the exchange rate to performance of the entire economy is definitely not the right way to look at things.

There were few reasons behind the recent appreciation of the LKR. Nevertheless, the exchange rate is simply the price we pay to buy USD. Like for many other commodities and services, the price of USD is determined through demand and supply. Suppliers of USD are mainly exporters, service exporters, remittances, foreign grants, and tourism. Main buyers are importers, the Central Bank, service importers, etc.

If you are wondering how the Central Bank becomes a buyer of USD, that is one way reserves are built. Until the last week of February, the Central Bank had a direction for all commercial banks to surrender 25% of their USD flows from exporters. That limit has now been reduced to 15%, which means that banks will have an additional 10% of USD than they did before, so the availability of USD in the market is slightly higher. Further, over the last few months, the Central Bank has been the main buyer of USD/forex and as a result our reserve levels have improved slightly.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) also approved a $ 400 million facility to support Sri Lanka to purchase essential items, so the inflows to the market are likely to increase. As a result of high supply and constant demand, the exchange rate has come down slightly.

Another reason is that the Central Bank increased the middle spot rate for banks to Rs. 5 from Rs. 2.50 last week. In simpler terms, previously, the Central Bank had provided a direction on the price of the USD. It is similar to a price control but slightly more flexible. As a result, banks can now provide better rates so that forex sellers are willing to supply.

As the economy contracted by 7.1% in the first nine months of 2022 and the World Bank projects a further 4.2% contraction for 2023, demand for imports has been low. On top of this, most imports are restricted. Additionally, tourism is slowly picking up and with many Sri Lankans migrating for work, it helps to recover remittances to an extent.

We need to realise that none of the above changes are reforms. They are just dynamics in the market. These little fluctuations are not an indication to measure whether we are moving in the right direction.

Reforms mean establishing a dynamic market and creating a suitable environment as soon as possible given the gravity of our crisis. When reforms are implemented, the exchange rate will become predictable rather than subject to speculation.

Reforms involve systems design and thinking, so that the system works even when a new person takes over. It is important not to mix up market changes and reforms. Markets will always fluctuate based on the availability and scarcity of resources, but reforms are about creating an environment for markets to work. Even the forex market optimises the use of resources.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Why it takes so long to recover from an economic crisis

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

I have been reflecting on the last few years of public policy and discussion, which I can broadly divide into three main chapters:

Chapter 1 – Denial

Chapter 2 – Realisation

Chapter 3 - Recovery

Chapter 1 – Denial

There was a time when even respected businessmen thought an economic crisis was a distant scenario. Many politicians, across all party lines, failed to consider a situation of 12-hour power cuts and long fuel lines, and viewed debt restructuring and accessing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as taboo conversations.

We relied on a $ 3.6 billion bailout from an unknown Omani fund and thought China and the Port City would bail us out as a last resort. Some even thought the discovery of a sapphire cluster might be the breakthrough Sri Lanka needed. Sri Lankans believed we were a special nation with a magical power that would rescue us in some other way.

Despite our strategic location, beautiful weather, and natural beauty being undeniable assets, they do not guarantee a rescue from our own bad policies. Our denial was so strong that an international institution titled their report on the Sri Lankan economy as ‘Denial is Not a Strategy’.

Chapter 2 – Realisation

The moment of truth came, but we were too late to respond. None of our bailout expectations materialised and the international financial architecture found it difficult to save us. Our debt is unsustainable and the IMF requires a commitment from our creditors before providing us financial assistance.

We are struggling due to global geopolitics and our poor diplomatic service and lack of professionalism doesn’t allow us to be taken seriously. We hurt all our friendly nations as well as India, China, Japan, and the US. Islamic countries too were concerned and unhappy with us over different issues.

People only realised the depth of the crisis when medicine was in short supply and their loved ones considered leaving the country. Inflation skyrocketed, prices increased, and poverty affected about 30% of the population.

Chapter 3 – Recovery

The moment people realised the severity of the crisis, they started asking about when we would recover. The simple answer is that it takes a long time and now many of us understand why. Overcoming a crisis of this scale, which in itself is a combination of multiple crises, cannot be done easily.

Simultaneously, we face a balance of payment crisis, a debt crisis, a financial crisis, a humanitarian crisis, and a political crisis. The cost of delaying a response to the crisis and mismanagement has to be shared by us all, with mounting tax increases and high inflation pressure from the grassroots.

As a result, we can see constant protests and interruptions to public life, further worsening the situation. At the same time, this opens a new political space where any political party can make unrealistic promises and auction for votes. This vicious cycle is why recovery from the economic crisis takes a long time.

The specifics of debt restructuring are still a mystery to us. We don’t know how the restructuring will be carried out or the impact it will have on the banking industry. It is also unclear how the markets will respond.

Without domestic debt restructuring, even if we apply a 50% haircut on International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs) and Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs), our debt to GDP ratio after 10 years will be 136%, according to a Verité Research study published in October 2022. Cost of servicing new debt and the cost of rolling over previous debt at a high yield curve will not bring down our debt to GDP ratio.

Nevertheless, it is still possible for domestic debt to be restructured and banking recapitalisation is necessary. According to the same document, investments in Government securities, primarily Treasury bills and Treasury bonds, account for more than 30% of the interest revenue for the total banking industry.

Hence, changing the interest rates on these securities will affect the stability of banks. On the other hand, 82% of the money in the EPF and ETF has been put into Government securities.

As the required changes take place, no one will be happy, so people and opinion leaders will react in different ways. The changes will go back and forth and recovery will be prolonged. Elections will come and decision-making authorities will change and policy decisions will also go back and forth.

All this is why it takes so long to recover from an economic crisis.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Our only saviour is reforms

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

Whether we will be able to receive International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board approval is now a topic of discussion even amongst the most economically-illiterate person. Let us first set the context.

The Sri Lankan Government and the IMF came to a Staff-Level Agreement in early September 2022. One of the key milestones we have to pass through is to get to some level of negotiation with our creditors. Our credit portfolio is diverse. We have multilateral senior creditors followed by bilateral creditors, including members of the Paris Club, mainly Japan.

On the other hand, there are two main creditors who are non-Paris Club members; India and China.

Paris Club members agree on equal treatment in debt restructuring. In simple words, all member countries of the Paris Club will be treated equally when it comes to restructuring. India has also agreed to assist Sri Lanka in the debt restructuring plan and has provided a letter to the IMF. However, according to the IMF, letters provided by China are not adequate. It has indicated a two-year moratorium, but given the financial needs expected by the IMF, Sri Lanka will not be on a sustainable debt path after a two-year moratorium alone.

Generally, credit assistance provided by multilateral donor agencies such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank is not restructured, provided it has been given with very long maturity periods and very low interest rates. Therefore, restructuring those loans has not been the practice. That is how the global financial architecture is designed, given their assistance in eradicating poverty and the IMF being the lender of last resort. 

However, over the last few years, there has been a request by private creditors, bondholders, and some stakeholders that the credit of multilateral donor agencies should also be restructured and China is one party that has made this request. Unfortunately, Sri Lanka is too negligible an economy to make that request or challenge the global financial architecture. .

Given the delays, there is now an emerging conversation on whether we have any other alternative options if the IMF agreement is further delayed. In fact, I asked this question at the meeting convened by the National Council Sub-Committee on identifying short- and medium-term programmes related to economic stabilisation, on whether alternative options were being considered in the likelihood of a delay. According to its Chair MP Patali Champika Ranawaka, the committee has not considered it, but he has an aim of being prepared for the worst-case scenario.  

As we have been saying over the years, we have come to this situation through our own policy errors and with our bad reputation, we do not have many choices in hand. Therefore, finding a solution without the IMF is a major challenge, but we, as a country, cannot avoid the consequences should this agreement get further delayed; social discussion is needed on what we can do to get it soon and on the available alternatives. 

Managing with what we have

One option is to drastically cut down our consumption, including essentials such as food and medicine, and face the situation with what we have. That option can trigger some level of social unrest because ‘a hungry man is an angry man’. 

Even at this level of consumption contraction, our poverty rate has increased above 30% according to a Parliament committee. Out of about five million households, about 1.7 million receive Samurdhi and another 1.1 million are on the waiting list. Of course, Samurdhi is not a good indication, as some people who should receive Samurdhi benefits are not recipients, while others who should not be in the programme are included. However, managing with what we have is one available option that comes with its own consequences. 

Moving ahead with debt restructuring without China?

The next option is to move ahead with debt restructuring without China. This option has a significant limitation because IMF confirmation is required even to restructure the debt of bilateral creditors. Without the IMF, it will be difficult to get Paris Club members and other stakeholders to a debt negotiation table. The more we delay and if China takes a very hard stance, which is likely, we have to request the IMF to move ahead with those who have agreed and hold China’s debt payments until we come to some level of agreement.

We have to understand China’s point of view and geopolitics as well. Our crisis has also become a tug of war between two economic powerhouses. On one hand, China does not want to align or agree with a US-led programme. On the other hand, the relief measures given to Sri Lanka have to be provided to all other countries making similar requests in future.

Pakistan and many African countries and emerging economies are expected to face debt distress in the coming years. China’s growth predictions are low, impacting global economic growth. Hence, the more we delay opening up Sri Lanka to geopolitical sensitivities, the more we will be pushed to align with certain superpowers. If we were to depend on China or India for continuous relief measures, it would be extremely difficult to avoid becoming a geopolitical pawn.

Possible reforms and opportunities 

In this context, it is clear that all available options (with the IMF or without the IMF), will result in extremely difficult times. However, in a crisis, there will be winners as well. Regardless of any of the aforementioned options, there are basic levels of reforms we have to undertake in any scenario. 

State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) reforms must be at the forefront. Without this, we have no future. One good opportunity is to capture the drive within the Indian market. Even if Sri Lanka does nothing, there will be spillover effects from India. The Indian economy, especially the North Indian economy, is growing very fast and we have to connect to their market. If we had played our cards right, we could have become a good connection point for trade between India and China. Instead, we made enemies all over. However, there is still potential. 

The more we delay reforms, it will further exacerbate the problem. As such, reforms are the only saviour in any scenario. It is sad to see how we are distancing ourselves from reforms, with political developments triggering another round of economic and political uncertainty which will lead to social uncertainty. Let us hope reforms move forward fast. 

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Sri Lanka’s biggest insecurity: Fear of competition

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

If we were to take some collective responsibility for the sad state of our country and attribute it to any cause, I believe it is due to our ‘fear of competition’. 

From top to bottom, Sri Lankans have been fearful of competing. Over a period of time, we have become very reluctant to compete and our fear has grown into incompetence. The fear of competition syndrome is spread across all sections of society, from the top executives to people below the poverty line. 

Sadly, as a country, we have not understood the meaning of ‘competition’. In our vocabulary, competition is where winners are selected and losers are ridiculed. However, competition is actually where the winner and the loser both win – when the winner wins, the loser also wins. How can this be?

A winner is defined as an individual who takes the leap to utilise the resources available to their maximum potential. Even in a 100 m race, the winner is the person who covers the distance within the shortest time span.

The recipe for the title of a winner is determined by the effort endured by any individual to go that extra mile and maximise the resources available. Once that formula is found, even the loser can use the formula of the winning person without wasting their resources further. Losers can ask the winners to run on their behalf next time so that the losers can better use their skills elsewhere.

This is how we all use so many consumable goods. Let us take computers as an example: most of us have lost the race of manufacturing computers while many have not even tried. But someone found the computer formula, so now we can all use the winning formula, which helps many of us save our valuable resources. Thus, losers have also benefited. This is why competition makes winners win and losers also win. It is much more than simply picking a winner – it is about the allocation of resources.  

In the Sri Lankan context, the fear of competition is what mainly led to the misallocation of resources. From top to bottom, not only are Sri Lankans fearful, but we also instigate fear in others. 

It was recently reported that a driver who was providing a taxi service using a mobile app had been threatened by some other drivers who were not using the app-based taxi service. The threat had taken place while the service was being provided to foreigners. The underlying reason for this is the fear of competing with mobile app-based technology.  

Fear of competing with private medical schools

While our tuk-tuk drivers have fear of competition regarding app-based solutions, our doctors have a fear of competition regarding private medical schools. They do not want someone capable with a better service in the market because they are fearful that someone else will overtake them. 

Fear of competition in furniture manufacturing 

Our furniture manufacturers are fearful of competing with other furniture manufacturers in the region. Not only are they fearful, they even ask the Government to support some of these industries with taxpayer money.

Fear of competition in the construction industry

Our bathware and tile manufacturers are reluctant to compete with the same category of products overseas. As a result, our cost of construction is about 25-40% higher than the region due to our widespread fear of competition. Most of our construction materials have a tariff of nearly 100% to avoid competition. Even the private sector is suffering from the fear of competition, which is one of the main reasons Sri Lanka lacks big industries and innovation in the system.

University students’ and the labour force’s fear of competition 

Our university students and teachers do not want to compete with international students. As a result, resistance is high against the entrance of any type of private university to the market. Rankings of our universities and colleges have been deteriorating over the years, but we still remain reluctant to compete. Not only do university students want to avoid competition, but they also want to be dependent on the Government.

Our Government servants and entire labour force are fearful that if we open the job market, foreigners with better skills will replace them. Although we are not competitive, we want to maintain our stake.

Across the board, Sri Lankans are deeply fearful of competing with the world. We lack the courage to admit the truth that our competitors can produce high quality products with high efficiency and productivity. If we are so afraid to compete with the world, there is little reason to claim that we have to improve exports. Exporting would mean competing with the world on an uneven playing field with different tariffs imposed in different regions.

Hasn’t our fear of competition not only made the country worse, but also contributed greatly to our economic crisis? Not just politicians, but all Sri Lankans have promoted fear among our fellow citizens. There are no innovations, inventions, or new technologies without competition. That is the sad truth. We have unfortunately become victims of our own actions.

For once, we should admit that we are the problem without absolving ourselves and instead blaming our political elites. While the poor decision-making of politicians is definitely a problem, if we are reluctant to compete, they can easily say that they simply represented our worldview and opinion.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

A flawed independence

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

Over the years, our definition of ‘freedom’ has become full of flaws. We took freedom for granted and we lost both our freedom and independence. Even though we gained independence in 1948 from Great Britain, we have no understanding of what real freedom is. 

We fail to understand that freedom comes at the cost of hard work, courage, respect, the ability to cooperate, and being competitive with the world. There is an ecosystem we should have built if we really want to be free. We did not build that ecosystem, so over the 75 years of independence, we question ourselves and argue back, asking, “Are we really free?”

Prof. Amal Kumarage in a recent tweet has asked this question very eloquently on independence and freedom.

“I’m confused as to what’s happening on 4 February in #SriLanka. Is it: 

1. A fake celebration of a real independence, 

2. A real celebration of a fake independence, or 

3. A fake celebration of a fake independence?”

Freedom is an alluring subject to many as people in general summarise freedom to being liberated to have an easy life, getting things free of charge. Over time, as the dire need for freedom kept rising, the wrong seeds of freedom grew by encapsulating and manipulating the idea of freedom to a level where people truly believed that we are entitled to many benefits even though we lack the resources. 

The drive down the tunnel of distorted versions of freedom led to many ethnic and religious turns over the years, believing that freedom is restricting someone else’s freedom for the betterment of someone else.

This is similar to a situation where a child learns the wrong values or habits without realising they are wrong and instead thinking they are right. After 75 years of practising the wrong values and ethics, we now have an operating system which we try to sustain with unsustainable resources. That is a brief summary of insights on our 75 years of independence.    

During that journey of 75 years, we have failed to understand the damage done by the existing system to our competitiveness and productivity. We simply became irrelevant in the world over a period of time. By deciding not to compete with the world, we decided to sacrifice our freedom. 

Our decision to not compete with the world mainly came through our economic policy. We simply misread the world and future of the world. In a world of sharing resources and collaborating for each other’s benefit and independence, we thought that real freedom is the ability to produce everything on our own. 

We supported the narrative of ‘self sufficiency’ when the world actually moved away from self sufficiency to interdependence. As per the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World Index, Sri Lanka has been ranked at the 138th position out of 165 countries based on our ‘Freedom to Trade Internationally’. Though we claim we are an open economy, the facts say otherwise. In terms of our openness, we are at one of our lowest points.

My father used to say: “If you think you are the smartest person on the street, it is time to change the street.” This is because an uncompetitive environment does not support growth. Without growth, no wealth will be created nor will there be freedom or independence.

When we isolate ourselves from global trade, we avoid competition. Avoiding competition means we are out of touch with the real needs and wants of people. Not only that, we try to become dependent on the world without contributing anything to the world or to its maximum utility of resources. Being open to competition is what keeps us all competitive and relevant.

Real freedom is the freedom to compete and be competitive in a global landscape. Even when we are one of the closed economies in the world, we are open for global competition. Our IT, apparel, tea, and rubber sectors and even unskilled labour that contribute with remittances are competing at a global level. 

When we are really competitive it provides us the tools and freedom to change the direction of our fellow human beings and to support humanity. That comes only through the freedom to trade. That is the real freedom we should all aspire to. We are far from this and we are moving further away, but at least it is important to keep the idea alive so that one day someone can move towards it. 

A fake celebration of a real independence, 

A real celebration of a fake independence, or

A fake celebration of a fake independence? 

According to Prof. Kumarage, it is difficult to judge what we are actually trying to do this year, but we should aspire to have real freedom and this real freedom comes at the cost of hard work, free exchange, and free trade by being relevant and competitive in relation to the world.

Source : Central Bank of Sri Lanka

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

A well-told lie is worth a thousand facts

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

Sri Lanka has always been consistent about two things. First, finding a villain to blame for incidents that have taken place in the past for Sri Lanka’s performance. Second, waiting for a hero to rescue us all with magical powers without making sure the systems and markets work. 

We always fail to evaluate reasons and economic context and understand the behaviour of people from an economic angle. A recent example is politicians claiming the economic crisis was a result of the Aragalaya and blaming the people who protested against the hardships they were going through, without realising that the economic crisis is what led to the Aragalaya.  

In a new turn, fingers have now been pointed at exporters, claiming that they have not brought money back into the country and accusing them of being part of the problem. In my view, the figures mentioned in relation to claims that exporters have parked funds outside are unrealistic. Some Sri Lankan companies have scaled their operations very successfully around the world, which has been done legally. For instance, there are energy investments in Bangladesh and Senegal and manufacturing plants in Africa and neighbouring India. Even our IT sector is expanding to the Middle East and to different regions around the globe using legally owned foreign exchange. 

This is obviously illegal and remedial action needs to be taken, but what is more important is to understand why it happens. We need to understand the reasons behind this and understand the reality with a solution-oriented framework. In most cases, the enemy is within, though we try to find the enemy outside. 

In my view, there are three main factors that influence such malpractices

Market intervention by the Central Bank

When central banks infuse more money into the system to maintain artificial interest rates, the exchange rate comes under pressure or the currency depreciates. The fear of currency collapse makes people withdraw money or avoid bringing money into the country.

Not only exporters, but even Sri Lankans who were sending remittances stopped sending their money through the banking system. Instead, they sent money through unofficial means at a depreciated exchange rate. When domestic prices are rising due to money printing or import controls, their families back home naturally need more money to buy goods.

However, exporters cannot keep unlimited amounts of money outside the country. Exporters need money to run their local operations, so they have to convert their export proceedings and get Sri Lankan Rupees to run the operation. When interest rates are kept artificially low, there is an incentive to borrow domestically and delay the conversion of dollars into rupees. 

However there is a limit to what exporters can borrow. Even if they borrow domestically, it cannot contribute to a foreign exchange shortage unless the Central Bank printed money to maintain an artificially low policy rate through discount windows or reverse repo operations.

If banks give extra loans to exporters, they have to cut down on other loans (to housebuilders, for example) or they have to pay higher rates and get deposits and reduce the consumption of their customers. Banks do not have to reduce other credit if the interest rate is maintained artificially through the injection of new money.

The policy of the Central Bank has simply created a highly unstable financial situation and it is human behaviour to protect one’s hard-earned money, so they will obviously keep their money outside. Understanding this should not require any financial expertise; even basic logic is enough. This is understood by our unskilled workforce contributing to our economy through remittances. 

To return to the matter of exporters, the margins are low in trading businesses and export quantities have to keep moving; a business cannot run without money. We have to reevaluate the numbers and it is unlikely that more than 10% of the proceedings will be repatriated, which is a figure that leans more towards the higher side. Even that is profits or value created by exporters. 

If the money comes, the exporter will use it and it will trigger demand. If money is not brought back, it will not become imports and instead becomes a private foreign reserve. While it may contribute to higher interest rates, this type of activity will simply reduce imports and not create forex shortages.

There were claims that some exporters sent goods to Singapore or Dubai and re-sold the goods to third countries while keeping some money there. 

We need to understand why people try to keep money outside the country. Who wants to bring money into an unstable country? Dubai and Singapore do not have central banks that print money and people not only import and export freely, they can also freely send capital in and out.

Sri Lanka, on the other hand, has exchange controls. Again, this is due to money printed to keep interest rates artificially low, which is exerting pressure on the exchange rate. Economists call this the impossible trinity of monetary policy objectives. A central bank cannot hold an exchange rate and allow the free flow of capital if it also prints money to control interest rates.

Exchange controls can be seen as a tool used to delay interest rates. It is worthwhile to recall the scale of Central Bank interventions and controls during this crisis. The Central Bank places price controls on Treasury bills and printed money. Exchange controls were also tightened further instead of correcting interest rates and stopping money printing.

The Treasury placed import controls on hundreds of items. The Central Bank increased margins for Letters of Credit (LCs). Moreover, forward markets for foreign exchange were killed, putting importers at risk and also damaging businesses that had hedged their imported input costs. Exporters were forced to convert their dollars early, which created problems for some exporters who had been in the habit of giving credit to customers to win business from competitors.

Additionally, forced conversion rules were imposed on service receipts. Some service workers and those others who used to bring these to the country and save them in foreign exchange accounts then kept their money abroad. Unlike goods exporters, service exporters have larger margins.

By this time, banks were facing a capital outflow and were unable to renew their credit lines and in some cases dollar-rupee swaps. Forced dollar conversions reduced dollar liquidity and brought these closer to default.

There are also concerns as to whether it is a violation of property rights for banks to force account holders to convert dollars without their consent. Foreign exchange controls are in any case a violation of property rights.

This very column previously warned of the potential drying up of forex with such market interventions. In simple terms, in a context where LKR is not hard pegged to the USD with floating interest rates or if there are no floating rates, all additional money supplied to the financial system to keep rates down evaporates in the form of imports, even with under-invoicing.

Trade barriers – High and complicated tariff structure 

Making tariff structures complicated is an incentive for corruption. The level of corruption that takes place at customs is no secret and the more complicated the system becomes, the more room for corruption. Simply, when the cost of corruption is lower than the legal procedure, the incentives are in place for corruption. 

This column has on many occasions recommended a simple tariff structure with three bands so that paying import tariffs becomes easier than taking on the cost of corruption. This was proved by Prof. Premachandra Athukorala in a practical research he undertook, where bringing down the tariffs by half on selected HS codes ensured that the Government income from those particular imported items doubled. Too many restrictions and intervention are the genesis of black markets and corruption. One of the easiest ways to minimise corruption at Sri Lanka Customs is to make our tariff structure simple, low, and consistent. 

Poor business environment 

Overall, Sri Lanka’s business environment is extremely poor. We have to ask ourselves why our own people leave the country and why they are reluctant to bring their money into the country. The answer is not complicated; we may act rationally or emotionally at times, but when it comes to money, we all tend to make rational decisions, especially when there is a tangible cost or benefit associated with it. 

It is obvious that people consider all alternative options to protect their hard-earned money. This is one reason remittances were not sent through official channels. Family members still received the money and imports still took place, but without going through the official channels. Any imports paid for with unofficial funds – such as open account imports – reduce the demand for dollars from exports.

Now that the Central Bank has raised rates and reduced money printing, leading to reduced exchange rates, people are sending their money through official channels. This shows that most people prefer to send their money through official and legal channels if a stable and consistent system is available.

It has been a while since Standard and Poor’s, Fitch Ratings, and many other international agencies warned about Sri Lanka’s worsening economic crisis. As such, our economic environment was extremely poor, which was why people did not feel that it was safe to bring their money into the country. The same happened even in Africa – with the crisis in Zimbabwe, many had bank accounts in Cape Town to protect the value of their money. 

Final thoughts 

One has to be careful about harassing exporters. Exporters, especially subsidiaries of foreign countries, have other countries to operate in. 

Under-invoicing exports is wrong, as it will reduce profits within the country. This is a tax fraud. However, reducing profits cannot contribute to forex shortages since any money that is not spent in the country will also reduce imports.

Sri Lanka wishes to be a hub for South Asia. It wishes to become a place where companies set up regional headquarters. If currency instability and exchange controls exist, these will not be set up in this country. Moreover, there are also rules on transfer pricing. 

If Sri Lanka possessed monetary stability, if there were no exchange controls, and if its tax rates were reasonable – the US has been pushing for a global corporate tax rate of 15% – companies would not try to take profits to safer places.

Exporters and importers have been harassed over the years. Framing exporters as the reason for the crisis instead of solving our own problems will simply make the situation worse. 

Can we really put the entire weight of the economic crisis on our exporters, forgetting the bond scam, Easter attacks, droughts, Covid-19, borrowing money at very high interest in USD, and investing in unproductive projects? The enemy is within, but we are always looking for a culprit outside. In politics, sometimes a well-told lie is worth a thousand facts.    

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

What next for Sri Lanka?

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

New predictions are emerging that debt restructuring and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Board-level agreement may take until the end of this year. Another ongoing discussion is about the Local Government Elections and postponement of elections. Electricity tariffs are to be increased and 10 banks have been downgraded by Fitch Ratings as a recalibration of Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating.

Overall, it appears that economic reforms are being sidelined faster than expected, without realising the consequences of each action. It is true these complicated problems have no easy, straightforward solutions. No solution will be perfect and the validity, impact, and effect of any solution will be weighed against time. To put it simply, a solution that appears valid and reasonable today may not sound reasonable in a few weeks or months.

Each action has its consequences and inaction will also have consequences. It will be a battle between the consequences of action and inaction and the continuation of this for the next few years.

Reforms and restructuring

Let’s take the case of reforming State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). With the election cycle commencing with Local Government Elections, attempts at restructuring SOEs such as the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) may be delayed. This delay means that inefficiencies will continue and tariffs will be increased without any competitive basis. This will in turn impact all businesses as well as macroeconomic indicators given the monopoly and the size of the electricity business. It may also extend the duration of power cuts and pave the way for another wave of protests, worsening the business environment.

Reforms too will be painful. Trade unions and some employees will be affected and an electricity monopoly can interrupt the life of the common man in multiple ways, with political and capital implications.

The cost of not implementing reforms will be much higher politically and economically, as it would be a cyclical result. Therefore, the reasonable decision is to restructure loss-making SOEs. Unfortunately, there is no other way out and delaying this further may invite darker years in the future.

The delays in the debt restructuring process will have its own consequences, both economically and geopolitically. The debt restructuring delay is a repercussion of maintaining bad foreign relations.

Poor international relations

How we treated India over the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) and in discussions on the East Container Terminal was extremely unprofessional and irresponsible. There is a significant difference between disagreement, negotiation, and unprofessional treatment.

By suspending the Light Rail Transit (LRT) project, we lost the respect and trust of Japan. We even annoyed China with the fertiliser matter and continuous regulatory delays with the Port City project. Our relations with the Middle East deteriorated with the cremation of dead bodies of the Muslim community during Covid.

We are not even in the good books of the US over the way we dealt with the MCC grant. Simply put, we do not have a friend who will extend a helping hand during troubled times. It is said that countries have longer memories than people. As such, we have limited our options due to our own grave mistakes.

A stalemate in a crisis

Economics and politics often go hand in hand. During an economic crisis, instability in politics is unavoidable. Our President does not have a direct mandate and the composition of the Parliament may not really reflect the people’s voice with the dawn of the completely new sociopolitical environment.

This was one reason the discussion of a common minimum programme was floated by concerned individuals and professionals, but it appears that this too has been discarded, with everyone slowly turning their attention to the election cycle. The calibre of our politicians is too inferior for them to understand the dynamics involved and to come up with responsive and novel policies and political options.

We are now in a stalemate, with a lot of short-term distractions. In such situations, we become distracted and waste our time on non-value adding activities without realising the massive deterioration of the quality of life. A deeper analysis shows that while the absence of economic reforms is a major issue, the fragility of our institutions is a bigger concern, with the institutional capability for the functioning of a basic society being almost nonexistent.

Solutions

Appointing capable and credible human resources for debt negotiations with China is essential to avoid delays. Acceleration of debt restructuring will unblock many other barricades, enabling us to move forward. There is a huge vacuum of capable human resources needed to carry out reforms. Therefore, providing space for already appointed committees to recruit more capable people and working out a time-bound solution matrix is important. The solution now lies in setting up institutions that can execute reforms to get us the required results.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Promoting competition over price controls

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

The decision to import eggs is a classic example of how price controls are backfiring. It proves once again the main argument put forth by Advocata’s research report ‘Price Controls in Sri Lanka – Political Theatre’ published in 2018. It suggests that price controls are merely politically motivated and have never succeeded in bringing prices down. 

The story of price controls imposed on eggs has two sides. Firstly, it is about competitiveness. According to media reports, an imported egg can be sold for Rs. 25-30 while a local egg costs over Rs. 60. When an egg is imported, it involves both a value chain and the distribution of margins. At the production stage, the farmer keeps a margin. 

Secondly, there are taxes and storage charges at customs of the particular country we import eggs from. There are also charges for insurance and shipping. Once the consignment reaches Sri Lanka, there will be tariffs and handling charges imposed by Sri Lanka Customs. There may also be storage expenses in Sri Lanka and the importer and retailer will keep the margins. Even with all these costs, local eggs are almost twice as expensive as imported ones. This indicates the inefficiency of local egg production. 

Restrictions hamstring production  

A primary reason for the uncompetitive and expensive nature of local egg production is the price controls imposed by the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA). A few months ago, the CAA imposed price controls, expecting a drop in prices. As we all remember, eggs simply disappeared from the market. 

The poultry industry as a whole was also challenged. No poultry farmer could survive at the prices set by the CAA. Some micro- and small-scale poultry farmers had to scale down while some had to close down. They sold their laying hens for meat amid the price controls. Daily production of eggs dropped to about four million per day from seven million. The price cap was later increased but the damage had already been done. Additionally, due to import controls, essential chemicals for the poultry industry were in shortage.

As a result, the poultry supply contracted and led to a price hike. Now we expect to import eggs. Accordingly, the price controls not only increased prices but also damaged the efficiency of the industry. 

We often forget that markets are interconnected. The poultry industry is often interlinked with maize production as it is the main source of food for poultry. Price fluctuations of maize affect the prices of chicken and eggs. Any intervention in the form of price controls, import controls, or regulation has a direct impact on the industry. 

It was not the first time we faced such a situation. Many governments and many trade ministers fell into the same trap over and over again by failing to understand the fundamentals. 

To recall some incidents in the recent past, there was a price cap of Rs. 60 per 1 kg of dhal and Rs. 100 for tin fish during the Covid-19 pandemic. Just compare these prices now. There was also a price cap for rice and at one point, a former military officer was appointed to conduct field raids on rice mills. 

There were times a price ceiling was imposed on hoppers and egg hoppers. Similarly, in 2015, there was a price cap on plain tea and tea. In the same year, price controls were imposed on broiler chicken. Traders started selling chicken parts instead of whole chicken to avoid price controls. Have you ever noticed prices being reduced due to price controls? The simple answer is no. 

Instead, things worsened. After repeating the same mistake over and over again, the poultry industry experienced the same bitter results. Its effect was felt not only by the poultry industry, but by the poorest sections of the population as well. 

Eggs are a necessary protein intake for the poor as they do not have refrigerators for storage. Eggs are also one of the main ingredients in the bakery and restaurants industries, which involve an extended value chain. Everything has been affected and some restaurants have even had to downsize their menus due to unavailability of eggs at one point.       

Solution 

Improved efficiency in local egg production is important to reduce the cost per egg and increase the output, thereby reducing the price of eggs. The farmers in India and Pakistan are doing something right to be able to sell eggs at Rs. 35 after passing through many touchpoints and cost centres. 

We have to make ourselves productive and efficient. Efficiency works when there is competition and when we allow competition to work. We cannot restrict competition for selected markets because one way or the other, all markets are interconnected. We have to redesign the CAA as an agency to promote competition and not as an agency to regulate prices. 

The same is valid for the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL). The solution is setting up institutions to accelerate competition across all industries. The role of the Government is to remove barriers for market operations, not to control prices. Price controls make things worse and it cannot bring down prices, but it will kill the industry and many other connected industries.  

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Privatisation! the need of the hour

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

I travel mainly by a common staff transport from Moratuwa to Colombo to work. I travel by train as well as on normal public transport for other travel purposes. Undoubtedly, my staff transport is the most efficient and affordable, providing the most value for money. It not only provides value for the money I pay, but it also provides a great example of why the Government should not do business and why the private sector should be allowed to. Even in the toughest conditions, private enterprises can bring solutions.   

The operator of my private staff transport is Amal, an executive at an office in Colombo. While a normal bus typically has three main stakeholders, Amal has made it so that there’s just one main stakeholder. That’s efficiency. A normal bus on the road generally has an owner, a driver, and a conductor. Amal just has one. He is the driver who drives us all safely and on time. He does not have a conductor because he has an automated door which the driver can operate easily with just a switch in the dashboard.

He charges about Rs. 12,600 for an air-conditioned bus ride for the entire month. That is approximately Rs. 286 per one-way journey from where I live, which is around 20 km. If I were to calculate my cost per kilometre for a peaceful air-conditioned bus ride where I can sleep comfortably or work on my computer, it costs just Rs. 14. 

Even if I travel by a normal non-air-conditioned bus, the incremental value I pay for Amal is negligible. If I use an air-conditioned bus, my costs are higher than what Amal charges. In the first place, there are no air-conditioned buses where I live and with Amal, my travel time is almost one-third of the total time taken on the normal route. I believe that travelling with Amal not only saves time but also reduces carbon emissions as well. 

A win-win situation 

Amal is just one man in the private sector who adds value to my life while making a profit and a living out of it. He recently bought another bus and now he has two rosters both ways with a time gap of about 30 minutes, meaning I can choose either the first bus or the second according to my convenience. He shares the live location on WhatsApp before every ride, so I can track where the bus is and be prepared. 

Amal is not the only such person. If you observe Colombo between 7-9 a.m. you will notice that there are many buses operating on the same model as Amal’s. There is no regulatory authority on staff transports in Colombo and yet it operates efficiently, with both Amal and I being beneficiaries of the system. It’s a complete win-win. I hope that after reading this article, there won’t be any Government regulations set up regarding staff transport to ruin the market. 

Amal is a one-man private operator who solves a burning issue for me or at least provides me with a reasonable solution which my Government has been unable to provide for more than three decades, even with billions worth of funds.    

Amal can improve efficiency because he has an incentive for improving efficiency. His incentive has a ripple effect leading up to minimising carbon emissions. 

Privatisation to solve problems

Given the discussion on privatisation, there is no better example than Amal of how private enterprises help people. Economics and businesses are all about solving people’s problems. Our life is all about solving each other’s problems and depending on each other. Amal solves my transport problem and by paying him, I may be contributing money for his child’s education. 

Our entire economy is a complicated yet interconnected web. Efficiency and getting the maximum out of our resources are needed, which can only be done when the markets are in operation. Markets are operated by private individuals like you and me who read this article. 

While the process of privatisation is complicated, privatisation is just a normal process for market operations. Sri Lanka’s economic problem is that we don’t solve anybody’s problems. When we do not solve problems, how can we earn money? How can others solve our problems? 

Problem-solving is nothing but improving efficiency. Efficiency can only be improved when people have incentives. It is a universal truth, like the earth revolving around the sun. Even if you look at the Return on Equity (ROE) or Return on Assets (ROA), which are indications of a company’s efficiency, it is very clear that under normal circumstances and on level playing fields, the private sector’s efficiency and impact is much higher than when the Government runs businesses. 

Just take a look at Figure 1, which is a comparison between Sri Lanka Telecom (SLT), which has some private sector engagement and Dialog, which is a private sector player.

Figure 1: ROE analysis of SLT vs. Dialog

Source: Annual Reports of SLT and Dialog (2018-2021)

In some cases, the State sector ROE is simply higher because of the absence of a level playing field. The banking sector is a good example. Most State banks get preferential treatment so their returns are high due to the non-competitive nature of getting businesses. Given the size of the Government, most Government banking is done through the State-owned People’s Bank and Bank of Ceylon. Anyone visiting a State bank and a private bank will experience the difference in service levels. This doesn’t mean the private sector is perfect; markets are always imperfect, but it is obviously many miles ahead of businesses run by the State.

Figure 2: ROE comparison of the banking sector

Source: State of the State-Owned Enterprises, Advocata Institute (2022)

The private sector is not anyone else, it is us. We should be given the opportunity to solve our problems instead of making the Government solve them. When the Government tries to solve the problem, it will not only block the private sector but it will also waste our tax money. Just think of Amal; he is providing me with a reasonable solution to a problem that the Government has been unable to solve for over three decades.  

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Who pays God’s electricity bill?

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

Over the years, I have volunteered at a humanitarian organisation named CandleAid Lanka to help the poor. The organisation has a programme called ‘Gift a Meal,’ where we provide meals to selected vulnerable households. When these people receive meals or dry rations, they thank the organisation profusely. I have noticed that most families also thank whichever god they believe in, because poor people think it is their god who is giving them a meal through CandleAid. 

I shared this observation later during a dinner table conversation with CandleAid’s Founder, Captain Elmo Jayawardena, who, as usual, cracked a joke regarding my observation. He said: “God takes very good care of people who support CandleAid, because God is rational. God ultimately gets the credit for all the hard work we do, so he must be thinking that he will lose the people’s support on two fronts if he harms such people. Firstly, he will lose the credit he gets through CandleAid’s work, and secondly, people will lose trust in God, because if something happens to people who donate to these charities, others will wonder why generous people are not being taken care of by God. So any rational God would simply do everything to protect us.”

Captain Jayawardena of course did not mean any particular god or religion, but was simply sharing a light moment at a private dinner. 

Lower power tariffs for religious institutions 

There was a time when the high powers of the Ceylon Electricity Board requested the blessings of a rain god for uninterrupted power supply during the Yahapalana regime. Now, religious institutions have requested a lower tariff rate compared to the normal rate.

Let’s face the truth. Even if we provide low tariffs for religious institutions or ask them to pay high tariffs, it is the common people who will pay. If we provide a tariff concession, common people and businesses have to pay it as taxpayers. Someone has to bear the cost of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. If we cross-subsidise religious institutions, it is ultimately the taxpayers who have to pay. If we ask religious institutions to pay higher tariff rates, these same common people have to pay, as devotees of the god they believe in. 

However, there is a significant difference in behaviour and impact of usage, although the end payer is the same. 

If taxpayers are asked to pay the subsidy for religious institutions, religious institutions have no motivation to reduce their usage, because the buying price is far less than the market price. Therefore, there is no motivation to save electricity. 

At the same time, the difference in treatment of one set of customers will create market distortions. It will also set a bad example and many other customer categories will make the same request. 

Moreover, even those who don’t use electricity at the religious institution have to indirectly pay for it through taxes, instead of spending the money on something productive. This will incentivise the religious institutions to continue using electricity without moving to sustainable energy sources. Even if the particular line ministry pays the electricity bill, it is ultimately the taxpayer who has to foot the bill. 

If the higher electricity tariff is borne by the religious institutions, even then the same taxpayers have to pay the bill, as devotees of the institution. But in this case, devotees who use electricity at the institution will be the ones to bear the cost, so they have a motivation to reduce their consumption. This will also incentivise them to look for alternative energy sources. 

Market reform for better options

Considering the political dynamics surrounding the tariff hike, it appears that once again electricity tariffs are becoming a political weapon as usual. Most likely this will block some electricity sector reforms. 

If there was a market system, there could have been a concessionary rate for religious institutions. For instance, if we had a few companies that undertook electricity generation and distribution, one of these companies may have offered an option for religious institutions to receive electricity at a concessionary rate as charity. 

For example, supermarket chains run various charity projects geared towards sustainability through their outlets. Telco service providers offer different services to donate money on a range of issues at a corporate level. 

Therefore, I believe that religious institutions should request for market reforms rather than tariff concessions, because it is more likely that they will receive a better offer from a market system than from politicians. 

Energy sector reforms should not only be about simple tariff hikes. When we approach an election, these same politicians will simply use the electricity tariff as a political tool, resulting in a bigger mess. The same will happen for fuel as well. 

In Sri Lanka, the culture of entitlement across all sectors is a genuine issue. This culture is not only present in requesting tariff concessions for religious institutions but also in requesting tariff protections for selected industries. On both occasions, the burden is simply passed on to the common man. When the same thing happens repeatedly, there is only one thing left for the common man to say: “God save us.” 

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Education is an investment for the future

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

Last week I was invited for a panel discussion by one of Sri Lanka’s leading stationery manufacturers. This was  for an initiative by them to support 100,000 families with children who are facing hardship due to the current economic crisis. 

According to their data, 50% of Sri Lanka’s families are struggling to support their children’s education. High inflation was mentioned as one main reason for this hardship.  Especially as more than 60% of what people earn have to be spent on basic food so what is left for education is shrinking. Unlike any other crisis, economic crises are the worst because it disrupts society. Inflation is not what the Central Bank says or what Prof.Steve Hanke’s updates as numbers. 

It is people’s pain, sorrow, emotion and helplessness. 80 page exercise books have increased from Rs. 75 to Rs. 100, 120 page books from Rs. 120 to Rs. 225. If you recall Sri Lanka’s World Champion Toastmaster Dhananjaya Hettiarachchi’s winning speech, he says mothers have three types of tears - tears of joy, tears of sorrow and tears of shame. There cannot be any sorrow or shame for a mother other than the inability to educate their loving children. Education is pretty much the most poor parents' insurance policy to overcome poverty at their later stage in life, especially in our context.

In Lebanon the protein intake came down by half and  35% of Lebanon’s 2 million student population have dropped out of school due to the current  economic crisis. As a result of this World Human Capital Index (2020) have projected that children born in Lebanon will only have 52% of productivity. 

So since Sri Lanka is on the same route as Lebanon,  it’s very unlikely that we would deviate far from Lebanon.  The impact of an economic crisis is beyond fuel queues and LP gas lines. Impact can run longer for generations. As Prof.Ricardo Hausmann from the Harvard Kennedy School mentioned, “economic crisis is the same as a civil war.”

So Sri Lanka has to be prepared to overcome this productivity deficit by reskilling and upskilling people. 

Sri Lanka keeps bragging about our skilled labor force and services exports of IT (Information Technology).  This is an industry that is already affected, especially as many such skilled individuals are migrating to greener pastures. Unskilled labour is remaining simply because they can’t afford to leave or they are not skilled enough to leave. Some are unskilled not due to any of their faults but due to economic conditions and flaws in the education system. 

Even though Sri Lanka moves somewhat forward towards economic reforms, after a few years we will experience a skilled labour shortage. When labour is in short supply investors don’t look at us and we become uncompetitive. 

Existing businesses will be further impacted and recovery would be challenging 

What can we do

Reskilling and upskilling our labour force is not just a function of formal education. It is mainly a function of working with co-skilled workers. For example, someone who works in a pizza restaurant has a higher chance of coming up with his or her own pizza recipe than someone just taking a degree in pizza. It's the same like someone who practices and bowls with Lasith Malinga will bowl better yorkers than someone who just watches Malinga bowling or someone just taking a theory course on bowling in cricket. 

So we have to revamp our labour regulations allowing foreign workers to come and work here specially for skilled job categories. That is one way we can attract investors. Not only will it attract investors it would reskill and upskill our own people through on the job training. We have to allow labor markets to work where hiring and firing is easy. 

If the government cannot spend money on education and if the government is too late to contain inflation then at least the government can change the archaic labour laws which have made Sri Lanka uncompetitive. 

While the support and the initiatives by the private sector in uplifting education is welcome, there are quite a lot that can be done with just a stroke of a pen which would have a very high impact at the same time. We need to do charity and reforms both to really survive this education crisis which has been triggered as a result of the economic crisis. 

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

One-size-fits-all reform strategy will not work

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

It is said that there are three kinds of people: those who watch things happen, those who make things happen, and those who wonder what happened. Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and its story of reforms is undeniably a case of the latter.

Unfortunately, our key institutions and the Government authorities who are currently in the driving seat fall into a new category called ‘those who wonder what happened, but frankly just don’t care’. 

A good example is the recent discussion on the validity of the debt servicing suspension announcement. Since Parliament has the power to approve all public finance decisions, questions have been raised as to how such an important decision, which was made for the first time in the history of Sri Lanka, was not tabled before Parliament for approval.  

Of course, if we had enough money and if our State coffers held a reasonable amount of foreign reserves, we wouldn’t have needed to skip debt servicing or suspend debt repayments, and this would not have been an issue. However, it is no secret that the country did not even have enough funds to clear a shipment of LP Gas worth $ 20-30 million. The phrase ‘scraping the bottom of the barrel’ is not appropriate in this instance, because there is simply nothing at the bottom. 

Warnings fell on deaf ears

There were multiple alerts on Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability issued by local intellectuals as well as by common men and women. Global banks such as Citibank even issued a report titled ‘Denial is not a strategy’. But their warnings fell on deaf ears as our Parliament and Central Bank did next to nothing to remedy the situation. 

Months after suspending debt payments, Parliament is now questioning whether the debt suspension decision had been approved by them. Instead, they should be asking themselves what they were doing for so long when it was obvious that we did not have money to pay our debt. 

When the country was heading straight towards bankruptcy, many policymakers did not bother to question what was happening. This does not justify the failure to follow parliamentary protocol, of course, but two wrongs will not make a right. 

In desperate need of reforms

The current system is a clear indication that our institutions are in desperate need of a complete reform programme, one that includes political reforms. However, expecting reforms to be implemented by a set of policymakers who, up until very recently, did not even bother to question what was happening may be too high an expectation. 

The execution of a solid reform programme requires building upon an understanding of what these reforms should be as well as understanding the importance of laying the foundations for strong, independent institutions. Along with specialist skills, a commitment to seeing these reforms through is required. Political reforms should support economic reforms and vice versa.

SOEs as a starting point

A good starting point is reforming State-Owned Enterprises (SOE). It is quite surprising to me that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) press release on the Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) gives little significance to SOE reforms. 

One of the seven main points highlighted by the IMF and the Government is the need for cost reflective pricing for energy and petroleum products. This is a welcome move, but it will lead to the same problems we have been facing so far. 

Given the state of our institutions, our politicians will adopt the cost reflective pricing strategy for as long as is needed and then simply revert back to their old habits – changing the pricing formula, bringing  prices down, and ignoring the cost factor. For this reason, our reforms have to be of a much more permanent nature this time around and that is why we need a strong combination of specialist skills and a commitment to implementing these reforms. 

The role of the Government

The Government’s role is not to conduct business, and a private sector business leader recently said as much: “The Government’s only business is to not to do business.” Simply looking at which enterprises make profits or incur losses is definitely the wrong way to look at it.  

Government businesses that make profits at present can incur losses in future. The Government has the ability to destroy any notion of a level playing field and can support Government businesses through loans, subsidies, and special permits. The vast majority of profit-making SOEs are not profitable solely due to their own efforts, and in reality, they aren’t competitive businesses.

For instance, it is widely known that the Development Lotteries Board is a profit-making Government institution. What may be a lesser known fact is that there is only one other competitor – the National Lotteries Board, and the directors of both these companies are appointed by the Minister of Finance. Under these circumstances, it can hardly be a surprise that the Development Lotteries Board is profitable. 

Therefore, looking solely at profitability won’t address prevailing issues. We have to first look at what the role of the Government should be. 

It is true that all SOE reforms cannot adopt a one-size-fits-all strategy. Different SOEs have to be treated differently. This treatment has to be based on the principle of the government having no role in business.  

In cricket and football, it is a commonly held view that the umpire or referee has no role in playing the game. It is the umpire’s responsibility to overlook the game and ensure that it is being played fairly. The umpire’s decision is final and if the umpire acts more favourably towards one side, there is another set of regulation mechanisms to manage this. The umpire facilitates the competitive nature of the game. The same holds true for the role of the government. 

Many options have been discussed for reforming SOEs, including privatisation and SOE consolidation that follows models like the Temasek in Singapore and Khazanah in Malaysia. Regardless of which option is chosen and which model is followed, we expect the Government to implement SOE reforms on a case-by-case basis, with special attention being paid to the role of the State.  

If we fail to understand the role of the State and implement solutions for SOEs based on this, Sri Lanka’s reform programme will probably fall into the category of things that make people ‘wonder what happened’. People will certainly question the reform programme and its credibility, while our next generation will wonder how they inherited such a poorly-managed nation that was once so full of potential.  

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.