Deane Jayamanne

July 28, 2024

A new era or more turbulence?

Deane Jayamanne

July 28, 2024

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

The challenges facing Sri Lanka’s next president

The Presidential Election has been announced. Ideally, by 22 September, there will be a new president with a new mandate from the people.

Sustaining power will be more difficult than winning the election. Generally, from the very first day after assuming office, things start to fall apart. This will be the first election after the ‘Aragalaya,’ and we do not know the ground reality.

The last power transition wasn’t smooth. While there was a democratic element in appointing the eighth President after the resignation of the former, that episode had many dark elements, including a massive economic contraction and impact on human lives.

Focus on economics and corruption

Previous elections had a national element, but this time the focus is completely on economics and corruption. The good news is that the path forward is well defined, including macro targets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Governance Diagnostic has provided the main reforms needed to curtail corruption, with timelines and responsible institutions. Most of these are non-controversial.

This time, all candidates will also have to declare their assets electronically. We, as the people, should demand that the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) enforces this.

The new president must deliver on anti-corruption promises because the demands of the ‘Aragalaya’ have not been met yet. However, some promises, like recovering assets overseas, are not easy to execute. Therefore, delivering on the anti-corruption sentiment is challenging.

Delivering on the economic front is equally tough. After debt restructuring, our interest rates will likely remain high. When interest rates are high, the cost of capital is higher, slowing down investment.

For instance, buying a computer to automate manual work becomes difficult when money is hard to source due to high interest rates. As a result, our economy will not grow. If the economy is slow to grow, it invites another crisis. Simply put, if the economy doesn’t grow, our debt will not be sustainable.

In other words, if the economy is slow to grow, it indicates that we are heading towards another debt crisis. The next leader must ensure both growth and stability.

The second piece of good news is that we at least have an idea of what targets we need to achieve on the economic front. Our debt-to-GDP ratio must gradually come down to 95% and our revenue must increase by improving our tax net.

Many promises about increasing Government sector salaries and public sector expenditure are good, but will be difficult to keep.

Limited options

In this context, there are two limited options available to increase money and productivity.

The first is improving productivity in what we already do. Simply working harder and putting in more effort can help. For example, reducing the number of holidays by 10% should increase the economy’s momentum because people will work more. But this race cannot be won solely by working harder. We must also look into channels for improving productivity without capital investments.

One such area is opening up business ventures that change the business format. For example, app-based taxi companies have significantly improved the productivity of both passengers and drivers by connecting potential riders with drivers. Companies like Booking.com connect tourists looking for lodging with small-scale lodging options.

Changing the business model has increased income for many people, reduced expenditure for many, and decreased waiting times, increasing overall productivity. The new leader must leverage this productivity lever.

The second option is to reform State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) to attract capital. Allowing SOEs to undergo privatisation and Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) can attract capital through investments. Additionally, rather than incurring losses, private entities can generate revenue for the Government through taxes and improve productivity.

The third option is to release land to improve productivity and circulate capital. Providing land ownership to people allows them to use it as security to unleash capital from the banking system, improving productivity.

Beyond these three options, any president will have limited choices. Relying on geopolitical powers in a highly volatile geopolitical environment may also be unfeasible.

Therefore, the challenge for the new president extends beyond getting elected. The real challenge is navigating the period after the election, which will undoubtedly be tougher than getting elected.

Deane Jayamanne

July 21, 2024

Delaying elections threatens political and economic stability

Deane Jayamanne

July 21, 2024

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

Whenever there is an election, there is always a conversation about delaying it. Already, Provincial Council Elections and Local Government Elections have been delayed. This was the case in 2004/2005 and again in 2019.

One rationale is that, having just achieved stability after a massive economic crisis, we need more time to complete some structural reforms and ensure political stability. On the flip side, how can we execute any reform without the mandate of the people? Operating without the people’s mandate means political stability is the first thing to go out the window.

After the resignation of the former President, the process of appointing a new President followed a democratic process. While it may not have been perfect, there was a democratic element involved. Political parties with a mandate from the people were able to contest, and the candidate who could command a majority of confidence through votes was given the responsibility to lead the country for the remaining term of the previous President.

Despite its flaws, this democratic element brought political stability, which led to economic stability. With the President’s support from Parliament, it was possible to enter into an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and continue discussions with external and internal creditors for debt restructuring. The political stability that came through the democratic element in the power transition process made it possible to achieve some level of economic stability.

Uncertainty and economic growth

However, the same democratic process has clear guidelines on the expiry time of the mandate. If we do not follow this process, the system that brought stability will push us towards instability again.

Delaying or attempting to delay elections often prompts political parties and their supporters to demand elections, creating instability as people seek to test the mandate of the public. Delaying an election in the hope of completing unfinished reforms rarely works as planned.

Moreover, postponing elections increases uncertainty. Even holding an election carries some uncertainty, but postponing it intensifies this uncertainty. The biggest enemy of any economic development is uncertainty.

After debt restructuring, the only way out for the country is economic growth. According to agreements with bondholders, we start repaying our interest from September onwards. A year of uncertainty will hinder even the small growth potential we have.

For economic growth, we need investments, and in an uncertain economic environment, attracting investments will be difficult. Falling behind our growth targets due to political uncertainty will challenge our debt repayments and credit rating updates.

International support may not be as easy to secure if the legitimacy of the Government is questioned over a delayed national election. It is true that elections themselves have an element of uncertainty. Especially post-Presidential Elections, if Parliamentary Elections result in fragmented party compositions, we risk returning to a scenario similar to President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s era, with a Coalition Government barely holding a majority.

Passing bills during a time when growth and structural reforms are needed could face resistance and pushback, leading to maintaining the status quo rather than shifting gears for growth and development.

Having a majority or even two-thirds power does not guarantee that all decisions will be right or fast. As we witnessed, a two-thirds majority Government was short-lived due to misguided economic policies. However, a diluted majority will also bring instability and frequent power changes, causing things to go back and forth.

The solution: A common reform programme

If we think about the country and the people, the only solution is a common minimum reform programme where parties agree on a baseline level of reforms. This ensures that regardless of who comes to power, progress continues. The common minimum programme can start with implementing the IMF Governance Diagnostic, which has recommended significant structural reforms for fiscal, monetary, anti-corruption, and State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) sectors.

If we can at least implement the IMF Governance Diagnostic Report as a common minimum programme, even in case of a drift, it will be slow. Delaying elections, however, will accelerate the drift and slow down existing reforms and growth.

The real challenge will be for whoever comes to power next. If the next government cannot drive economic growth through improving productivity, investment, and efficiency, another collapse is inevitable. A common agreement on reforms is required because the common people care less about who rules the country and more about how their future and standard of living will improve.

Deane Jayamanne

March 16, 2024

The other side of parate execution suspension

Deane Jayamanne

March 16, 2024

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

In India, there was a particular type of cobra that was causing havoc due to snake bites. People were protesting and social pressure was building. The then British Government had a brilliant idea to counter cobra bite-related deaths and bring down the reptiles’ population – it announced an incentive scheme for every dead cobra.

In essence, people in India were encouraged to kill cobras and hand over the animal’s dead body to established Government offices in India and collect cash in return. In the first few weeks, things worked out very well, but later the Government realised that the number of cobras being handed over was increasing exponentially.

Upon investigation, the Government realised that Indians had become somewhat entrepreneurial. They had started cobra breeding houses at homes and killing cobras as a means of revenue generation for the family. At one point, the Government withdrew the cash incentive system given the misuse of the entire scheme.

Since there was no incentive for people to maintain cobra breeding houses, they released the reptiles into the jungle. The cobra population then multiplied several fold more than what it was initially as a result of the same policy being implemented to reduce the cobra population. This is called the Cobra Effect.

The Government decision to suspend parate execution as a relief for Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) is no different. It is true that MSMEs are going through a difficult time as a result of higher inflation, high interest rates, and economic contraction. It is necessary to protect the MSMEs as they comprise about 99% of business establishments and about 75% of employment in Sri Lanka.

However, whether the suspension of parate is really for MSMEs is a question; 557 parate executions have been undertaken as of November 2023. The total value of the parate executions was just Rs. 38 billion, which stands at just 0.4% of total loans and a mere 2.7% of total impaired loans. From the numbers, it is clear that most MSMEs have not been impacted by parate executions.

Effect on MSMEs

Parate is an execution power on the part of banks under the Recovery of Loans by Banks (Special Provisions) Act, No.4 of 1990, where lending banks can recover non-repaid debt by borrowers by selling assets without going through the judicial processes. In 1961, this power was only granted to People’s Bank and the Bank of Ceylon, and in 1985, the power was extended to regional rural development banks as well.

If MSMEs are not affected, what could be expected to happen when parate executions are suspended until December by the Government? This is likely to backfire on MSMEs given the nature of the banking industry, akin to the Cobra Effect.

Banks lend depositors money. Parate was a safeguard for depositors’ money in case someone was not repaying loans they had taken, giving banks a final resort to recover that money so they could honour the depositors.

Now with parate suspension, banks have a higher risk of not being able to recover the money from the loans extended, so they have to charge a higher risk premium when borrowing for anybody, including MSMEs. Therefore, if MSMEs want to borrow money now, they have to pay higher interest rates, which means further contraction of the economy at a time when it needs to grow.

Triple whammy

On the flip side, this will encourage borrowers to default as they now know the banks cannot execute parate even if they were to willfully default. Additionally, borrowers who are honouring their loan repayments with the greatest difficulty during this economic crisis will be discouraged, because their hard work in honouring the dues will not be rewarded. This does not mean that even the Rs. 38 billion through parate execution has to be understated, but it has to be addressed separately without changing a law which affects the entire banking sector.

The Government declared a Rs. 450 billion bank recapitalisation in Budget 2024 given the instability of the banking sector as losses and loans of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have to be absorbed. On the other hand, licensed commercial banks including State banks are being exposed to sovereign debt restructuring, which is at its final stage. Accordingly, this is detrimental to the stability of the banking sector.

On the depositors’ end, they may be reluctant to deposit money as their risk is now higher on recovery.

Parate execution generally takes place at the last stage of recovery and must go through a court process. Suspension of parate without even consulting banks may provide wrong signals for the ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) review, since the IMF initially advised to conduct an assessment on the stability of the banks, although the context has now changed after a few months.

The Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios of banks are also on the rise, so banks basically face a triple whammy with this parate suspension – having to charge risk premiums, high NPL, exposure to sovereign default, and now difficulties in recovering money and incentives for not servicing existing loans.

However, the need to protect MSMEs is paramount, which requires a separate sequence of actions. Setting up a bank specifically to absorb bad loans, setting up bankruptcy laws, or moratoria on some of the bad loans under parate executions are options. Changing the entire parate system will indeed bring consequences similar to the Cobra Effect in India.

Deane Jayamanne

February 17, 2024

Prioritising SOE bill over OSA: A shift in economic direction

Deane Jayamanne

February 17, 2024

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

While the Government has prioritised the Online Safety Act (OSA), which is extremely negative for our economy, there are other bills in the line-up which are expected to get through. One such bill is on the State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) holding company.

The SOE Restructuring Unit (SOERU) has outlined the principles of SOE reforms, which are in the right direction, but the Government’s prioritisation of bringing the OSA is definitely in the wrong direction.

Key principles

While the bill on the SOE holding company is yet to be released, the SOERU has outlined nine key principles on which they expect to base the SOE reforms. In the first principle it admits the Government has no role in commercial activities except for three instances.

(1) If there is a concern on national security, the Government can engage in business.

(2) If there will be no private participation in certain industries given the size of our market, the Government can engage in business. For instance, if we open the rural bus routes for the private sector, there may be a possibility that, given the nature of the low population density, no private bus operator will be interested in entering the market. While it can be to an extent addressed through allowing to charge a higher price and the Government providing a direct cash subsidy to the citizens in the rural area, there can be practical challenges. In that case the SOERU principals have left the space for the Government to enter business.

(3) If the service from the Government is essential in nature but if the regulatory mechanisms are weak for competition, where there is opportunity for market exploitation by the private sector, the Government can be in the business.

While the three areas are logically right, we have to wait for the final bill to see how exactly this has been worded. The danger is that governments are so powerful that even in the above three areas, it can leave a lot of room to keep a lot of existing SOEs under the government of the day if the political ideology is to keep SOEs, claiming it is under national security.

In the Right to Information (RTI) Act, there is provision that the authority can decline to disclose the requested information if it threatens national security. For most RTI requests, many Government institutions have been responding that the information cannot be disclosed due to national security reasons. Therefore, defining national security or the process of deciding how an organisation or industry comes under national security is important.

Unless the Government can always build a logical stand, even institutions like the Cashew Corporation will have to be under the Government as it can impact national security.

On the second condition, that in the absence of a private player due to limitation of the market size or another criterion for a service that is essential in nature, the guidelines have to be developed in the case of what could be a new player wanting to join the industry later.

For example, it could be an industry with high capital investment and low market penetration, making Sri Lanka unattractive at the beginning due to the market size. As a result the Government can be in that business as the service is in the nature of being essential.

But over the years as technology and other parameters develop, at one point there may be new players interested in joining the industry. At that point, a natural resistance may occur from the SOEs over a new entrant being in the market as they will lose their monopoly status. The same happened when Lanka IOC entered the market and still there is some resistance to the entrance of Sinopec and other players in the energy market.

Deciding what an essential service is also requires a framework. Otherwise, when a government wants to be in a business, it can easily announce that industry as an essential service and enter the business, bringing forth various reasons.

All of the above are beyond the scope of the SOE law, but we need to keep in mind that these are the loopholes governments always have when ideological stances are different. Even if the new bill passes, we should not underestimate the skills of policymakers in finding the loopholes.

Other principles

The fourth principle of the SOE holding company is to bring all SOEs under one registration format. At the moment, different SOEs have different structures with a very high degree of complexity. For instance, the railway is a commercial activity and runs as the ‘Railway Department,’ while the Ceylon Electric Board runs as a board under an act. Meanwhile, Lanka Hospitals is a hospital but operates as a private limited company. Therefore bringing them all under one registration is vital when we set up the SOE holding company.

The fifth principle mainly focuses on the governance of SOEs as the SOE reform process is a longhaul game. The SOE holding company and the subsidiaries are required to adhere to Colombo Stock Exchange guidelines. This includes releasing quarterly financial statements and the board of directors being required to conform to the Code of Best Practice on Corporate Governance.

The other principles in the list are on unbundling the regulator and the operator in certain industries. There are industries run by the Government where the Government is a player as well as a regulator at the same time.

Overall the SOERU’s principles to base the SOE holding company is in the right direction, although there is always room for politicians to exploit the principles.

It is sad to see the pushing back of such important SOE holding company legislation over the draconian Online Safety Act.

Deane Jayamanne

January 8, 2024

Non-negotiable reforms for election manifestos

Deane Jayamanne

January 8, 2024

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

The year 2024 will be an election year. The general flow of events is that each political party and candidate will launch a manifesto of a grand-scale and present their plans for the people and the country. Most of these promises will not be implemented or will only be half implemented. In certain cases, the opposite of what was promised will be implemented.

Most manifestos are presented in general terms with a target of 20 years ahead with little data. Many manifestos across all party lines are wish lists with no action plans.

In my view, this time there is a slight difference.

Regardless of the party formation or whoever the presidential candidate will be, there are few reforms that are non-negotiable. Ideally, across all manifestos, there are five basic ideas which have to be the common denominator.

Strengthening social safety nets

Following the worst economic crisis in Sri Lanka’s history and high inflation, about four million people have fallen below the poverty line. That puts seven million people under poverty. The recent Household Income and Expenditure Survey carried out by LIRNEasia and the World Bank indicates significant poverty levels and aftereffects of poverty due to the economic crisis. As a conscientious society, we need to take care of our poor people with the social safety net.

The social safety net is not just an allowance. It is a system and a process of targeting the right people, providing an exit route, and with proper administration. The current Aswesuma programme is making some progress with World Bank assistance, but regardless of the political leader who comes to power, it is a non-negotiable condition that social safety nets have to be strengthened and improved.

The current process has too many loopholes which have to be addressed and improved. Simplifying the process, providing the exit route, and monitoring and depoliticising has to be a continuous effort from the new leadership of the country.

SOE reforms

Thus far, mandatory SOE reforms have been painfully slow. Many parties with vested interests are trying to delay it until the election. However, the continuation of SOE reforms is a must.

Colossal losses, interference in the private sector, intervening in markets, creating an unfair playing field, and inefficiencies are a few reasons why SOEs played a pivotal role in Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. SOEs are vehicles of corruption and have diluted entrepreneurship and Foreign Direct Investments significantly. Without reforming SOEs, the future of Sri Lanka appears to be bleak.

The principles announced by the SOE Restructuring Unit are in the right direction, but the SOE Act and reforms of the Ceylon Electricity Board, Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, and many other networking industries are a must.

Anti-corruption and governance reforms

Execution of anti-corruption laws and governance reforms is another area which has no room for negotiation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Governance Diagnostic and many other locally-developed reports on governance provide direction on what needs to be done.

Strengthening our Judiciary system, transparency and accountability in our tax system, removing tax exemptions, and repealing the Special Commodity Levy and the Strategic Development Act too falls under governance and anti-corruption reforms, as those acts provide the legal opportunity for corruption.

There is a strong sentiment from people on the contribution of corruption to the crisis, so taking long-term measures regarding corruption is a must. Anti-corruption and governance reforms go beyond going after corrupt politicians. Rather, it is a system and framework for minimising government influence. Some reforms are complementary and reforming SOEs is also a key component of anti-corruption and governance reforms, as these SOEs play a vital role in corruption.

Following the IMF programme and debt restructuring

Given the international financial architecture, we have no option other than sticking to the IMF programme. We can negotiate some of the actions that we have promised, but overall indicative targets and reforms have to be maintained. Otherwise, it will be yet another incomplete IMF programme and the debt restructuring process will be in jeopardy.

Debt restructuring and the continuation of the IMF programme are very much interconnected. At the moment, external stakeholders are concerned about political instability and in fact, the IMF’s first review identifies the political risks for the continuation of the IMF programme. A commitment from any political leader on sticking to the programme will help Sri Lanka in rebuilding relationships with the world.

Trade reforms and joining global supply chains

We have to grow our economy to emerge from this crisis. Tax revisions make it likely that growth will slow down and the only solution to grow small island nations like Sri Lanka is through global trade. Our problems regarding global trade are mainly the problems in our own regulations and systems.

We have to remove our para-tariffs and simplify the tariff structure for a few tariff lines. Not only will this help trade, but consumers will also have a greater choice of goods and services as well as competitive prices.

On the other hand, the Government can improve the revenue from Customs since at the moment, the high tariffs are a main reason for revenue leakage in the form of corruption. Trade reforms are about growth, minimising corruption, encouraging exports, and assuring reasonable prices. Even at present, after very high taxes, there are levies such as the Special Commodity Levy, Ports and Airports Development Levy, and a huge array of taxes which hinder the competitive nature of our economy.

These five policies, in my view, are non-negotiable. If any administration deviates from them, it is very likely that we will fall back a few miles behind where we started.

Deane Jayamanne

November 25, 2023

Looming political and economic challenges ahead of elections

Deane Jayamanne

November 25, 2023

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

“We know what should be done to get the country on the right track, but we don’t know how to get power back after implementing the policies.” This is a popular statement I hear often when I meet quite a few politicians. The truth is that politicians do not know how to get back power because it’s not an attractive solution.

The popular policies that bring politicians into power are the very same that inspire their ousting at the very next election cycle. People hardly object to good policies unless the same politicians instigate false propaganda. The Right to Information (RTI) Act was just one such instance.

As an election is due next year, it is vital to understand and remember our priorities, otherwise our politicians are likely to take a wrong turn and pass the buck back to the people.

In an election year, the behaviour of any political party is to completely abandon rational economic reforms and play to populist narratives that result in outcomes that are the complete opposite, with the motive of coming to power.

Bringing down fuel prices and announcing other types of subsidies are common tactics. This is harmful, especially when those benefits cannot be financed sustainably, or in some situations, brought into life in the first place.

Even if it does not retain power, the newly-elected government will have a tough time preventing plans that have already been put in place and enacting better policies.

Political risk

In the current context, we run a very high risk of our politicians bringing us back to square one; i.e. another economic crisis. This, given the fact that 2024 is set to be an election year, is a recipe for disaster.

All political parties will shift their focus to slowly becoming more populist rather than being driven by objectivity. Therefore, the real risk is going back to another debt restructuring if we fail to grow the economy and our exports.

There are many politicians who do not understand the gravity of the need for reforms. Regardless of which party or coalition comes to power, there are fundamental issues that need to be addressed.

The process is more or less the same as handing over a house with structural issues from one tenant (government) to the other. The new tenant cannot function because neither the previous tenant nor the owner (people) is willing to fix the fundamental problems.

Risk of a second debt default

Given the unstable political environment coupled with a country already going through debt restructuring, the risks of a second debt default are astronomically high. As we are still struggling with finalising the first debt restructuring, adding a second one into the mix will leave us in dire straits.

The second one will undoubtedly be harder, especially given the significant increase in interest rates and being unable to print money with the new Central Bank Act. If we fail to raise money through markets in order to roll over debt and if we are not open to increasing interest rates, the only option we will be left with is to default again. At that point, most likely there will be pressure once again to amend the newly-enacted Central Bank Act to allow money printing.

Of course, that would be an inflationary measure and we will be back at square one with a balance of payments crisis, debt crisis, humanitarian crisis, and likely a banking crisis too.

Solutions: A common minimum programme for reforms

Reforms are easier in the first 100 days of any government. If we fail to enact reforms within the first 100 days, more often than not, no reforms will take place. Failing to undertake reforms in 100 days means a cost of a five-year delay plus many bad policy decisions in the middle, which are costly and difficult to reverse.

Ideally, if key political parties come to an agreement before an election on selected reforms and execute them regardless of who comes into power, it will at least ensure some stability for Sri Lanka. There are many ideas that all political parties have in common.

Regarding State-Owned Enterprise reforms, there is no political party that says the Government should run an airline. Even National People’s Power Economic Advisor Dr. Anil Jayantha, in an interview with Advocata, noted that they did not believe the Government should do any business with hotels.

Accordingly, there are many other similar areas where we can arrive at an agreement with little difficulty. Therefore, regardless of who wins elections, people can win and sustain some of the economic reforms.

The truth is that reforms are inevitable if Sri Lanka needs to move forward and for any political party to sustain its power. Implementing bad policies, especially considering the status of our country, will make it very difficult to sustain power, because then we will be setting the standard for a new normal in economics and politics.

Deane Jayamanne

November 18, 2023

Fiscal path amidst promises and uncertainties

Deane Jayamanne

November 18, 2023

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

Starting from the second week of November, every minute in Parliament will be focused on the national Budget. Fortunately or unfortunately, many of the promises outlined in the Budget are unlikely to be implemented or fulfilled.

At the same time, items that are not in the Budget may be implemented midway through the year, based on the direction of the wind. Things are especially likely to take a completely different turn in an election year.

A key criticism against this Budget is that the revenue proposals to cover up the expenditure proposals are not adequately mentioned. A revenue of Rs. 4,100 billion is expected for an expenditure of Rs. 6,900 billion. It’s akin to wanting to spend Rs. 69 while only having Rs. 41 in hand. The challenge is that we are uncertain as to how we will earn even Rs. 41.

An earlier proposal to increase VAT by 3% and remove the exemptions on VAT can be seen as a measure to increase revenue. There are a few proposals to increase the tax base, which is a step in the right direction, such as the requirement of a Tax Identification Number (TIN) for opening a current account, obtaining a building licence, and for revenue licences for vehicles.

The question that arises is what would happen if we fail to generate even the expected revenue and I think there are three scenarios that can occur if we fail to achieve the revenue targets in the middle of the year.

Scenario 1: Cutting down on capital expenditure

Approximately Rs. 1,200 billion has been allocated for capital expenditure in the 2024 Budget. This includes some proposals such as a new airport and building a few universities. So we will likely have to rechannel some of the capital expenditure to recurrent expenditure if we fail to generate revenue.

What is important to note is that, compared to last year, capital expenditure makes up a lower percentage of total expenditure. So in a context of starting with an already lower capital expenditure base, cutting capital expenditure from key areas of growth such as health or education further will maim our growth in the long run.

Slower growth is also not favourable for Sri Lanka because the need of the moment is growth. Only growth will increase our tax revenue and create more employment opportunities and business opportunities.

Scenario 2: High inflation

The second scenario would be the Government exploring the opportunity to get finances from the Central Bank to bridge the deficit. With the new Central Bank Act, the space for doing this is very low, but if past experiences hold true, anything is possible. There is a transition period of about 18 months and we should not underestimate the crafty nature of our politicians to find legal loopholes.

If the Budget deficit is being financed through the Central Bank (money printing), further increases in cost of living and high inflation are unavoidable. It will also drain our forex reserves and build additional pressure on our currency and likely end up with a currency depreciation after a few months’ cycle: a cycle not so distant in memory.

The Central Bank financing this Budget deficit will also challenge the sustainability of the IMF programme. As the next year is an election year, politicians will mainly think about the elections before the economy, despite promises made. While the new Central Bank Act tries to stop this from taking place, the possibility cannot be ruled out fully.

Scenario 3: Hike in interest rates

The third scenario is where the Government borrows money from the market to bridge the gap and allow interest rates to move. This will not cause inflation as the Budget deficit is not being financed through the Central Bank, but the cost of money will go up (interest rates moving up).

When the cost of money goes up, growth will contract. When this happens, businesses start winding-up operations and expansions become difficult. Also, banks will lend more money to the Government at higher interest rates, slowing down credit for the private sector.

When the economy slows down there may be an impact on the tax revenue on one side. On the other side, with limited growth, achieving debt sustainability will be challenging.

Solution

In order to prevent these scenarios from taking place, it is imperative that we reduce wasteful expenditure. The key solution is to focus on reforming State-Owned Enterprises (SOE). SOE reforms can increase revenue, cut down expenditure, bring down our debt, and attract foreign investments.

The bank recapitalisation of Rs. 450 billion, mentioned in the Budget, is due to the debt owed by two SOEs that have losses which amount to Rs. 1,800 billion. The taxpayer is now expected to pay the bill. It amounts to about Rs. 20,000 per citizen from taxpayer money for bank recapitalisation. That is a staggering Rs. 80,000 per household of four members.

Boosting tourism is also another option. While there is a fund for tourism promotions which has to be utilised well for building our brand image, it will all be in vain if we do not do things as simple as removing regulatory barriers to tourism.

The final bird in our hand as a solution is the Colombo Port City. We have to accelerate the process and attract investments.

If we play our cards right, we can at least move a step ahead in 2024.

Deane Jayamanne

June 25, 2023

Competition: The way forward

Deane Jayamanne

June 25, 2023

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

The recent conversation on taxi services at the Bandaranaike International Airport brought back memories of one of the times I travelled overseas as a youth. The Colombo-Katunayake Highway construction was not yet completed and I had just finished university.

I did not have the means to hire a vehicle to travel from Moratuwa to Katunayake in order to catch a flight, nor did Sri Lanka have the infrastructure or many affordable choices for a poor boy like me to reach the airport quickly at a reasonable cost. There was no PickMe nor Uber, and neither did I have a smartphone.

I left home early with my borrowed luggage from a friend and came to the Moratuwa Railway Station. I took the train from there to Pettah. From Pettah, I took an air-conditioned bus, paying extra to keep my luggage in the front of the bus and took a tuk from the bus depot to the airport departure terminal. I think the time I took to travel from home to the airport was just about 30 minutes less than the travel time of my flight.

All that I went through was due to unaffordability as well as the unavailability of affordable choices to travel. If there had been proper modes of public transport available connecting trains and airports, the lives of people like me, who could not afford a taxi to the airport, could have been easier. In the context of the availability of choices, we have to evaluate whether to allow mobile app-based and registered taxi services at the airport.

It is obvious why registered taxi services at the airport charge a higher rate. Their reasons to charge a higher rate include the cost to operate at the airport by paying rent for their operating offices and keeping an adequate fleet of vehicles. Further, their cost also includes licence fees and bribes that they have to pay to obtain the licence to operate at the airport.

However, their business model has been challenged by a more technologically-advanced operation where customers can choose the type of vehicle they want and are given the ability to check the rate for the journey prior to booking the taxi. This offers many more options including safety measures, such as the ability to contact the driver after the ride in case something is left behind after long hours of travel time.

While the operation of registered taxi services is perfectly reasonable, preventing someone else with an alternative solution from entering the market will make the lives of people more difficult. In a competitive world, competition should be encouraged.

The solutions suggested by our policymakers are absurd. Certain policymakers have wished to prevent the operation of mobile app-based taxi services at the airport. Others have suggested that the airport registered taxis should also register with mobile app-based taxi services. While the second option is somewhat reasonable, a business model being rendered uncompetitive due to the development of technology is not a problem for policymakers in the first place. Imagine bullock cart owners claiming that they are being impacted by engine-driven vehicles?

Simply, this is the evolution of the world and we have to adapt or we will lose in the market. Unfortunately, airport-based taxi services are becoming uncompetitive and more importantly, customers do not see any value in their services. If a customer sees the comparative value of one service being better than the other, they should be given the opportunity to make a choice based on the available options. This service should be valid even for customers whose hotel travel is coordinated directly.

Once we look beyond this and decide to connect our airport to multimodal transportation systems (such as connecting railways and highway buses to the airport), the airport-registered vehicles as well as Uber and PickMe taxis will witness an impact on the number of hires they receive.

Will policymakers delay connecting the airport to multimodal transport systems merely in order to protect our taxi services and drivers, overlooking affordable options for consumers?

In most airports around the world, the terminals are connected to some form of public transport while any type of taxi service is allowed. In fact, the infrastructure and signage enables mobile app-based taxis and other taxi services to pick up and drop off passengers at specific points. All modifications have been undertaken to make the lives of travellers easy, affordable, and safe, instead of protecting a group of politically-affiliated rent-seekers.

The manner in which our policymakers treat this issue is a good indication of how the majority’s choices have been compromised for political reasons, for the benefit of a few who are unproductive and uncompetitive.

This norm is not only seen in this particular scenario, but everywhere in our economy, including the State sector. Similar to how registered taxi drivers are objecting to mobile app-based taxi services, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation wishes to keep other private companies out of the market. Some tile and bathroom fitting manufacturers wish for import bans on tiles and bathroom fittings, simply for their own benefit, as do aluminium manufacturers.

Things are the same in politics. They are all basically asking Sri Lankans and tourists who arrive in the country to take long journeys, wasting a lot of their precious time and call it a ‘beautiful life in the paradise island or Asia’s little miracle’.

‘So Sri Lanka’; is it actually a miracle?

Deane Jayamanne

May 7, 2023

A case for privatisation

Deane Jayamanne

May 7, 2023

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

While many agree on the need to reform State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), several counter arguments remain.

There is one main argument that is reasonable: how can we be assured that corrupt politicians will make transparent transactions? The weaknesses in the previous privatisations have completely affected the confidence of the public.

On the other hand, the positive results of privatisations in cases such as Sri Lanka Telecom (SLT) are very clear. Costs have decreased while productivity and quality of service have significantly increased, and the Government has made money.

However, SLT was a partial privatisation, with the Government having the larger share of 49.5% in the company. This oversight that the Government has over the telecommunications company has once again demonstrated that it is not operating to its full potential when compared to competitors.

This is not surprising, because there is a window for corruption and favouritism when politicians have control over the administration. An article published by Sanjeeva Jayaweera, who is the Chief Financial Officer of one of Sri Lanka’s largest conglomerates, revealed some comparative statistics on the telecom sector.

This market leader, a privately-owned telecom company with more than 17.7 million subscribers, manages the operation with about 3,631 staff members and has a wage bill of Rs. 10 billion for 2021. On the contrary, SLT operates with 8,058 employees, serving about 9.3 million subscribers and has a wage bill of about Rs. 20 billion for 2021.

This is a clear indication of the space available for political appointments and usage of excess resources from the economy. The private market leader generates a revenue of Rs. 142 billion and SLT makes about Rs. 102 billion.

The average dividend income earned by the Government over the last five years is only about Rs. 1.1 billion.

Passive earning

What many forget is that the private sector making more money on a competitive basis is very much beneficial to the Government on a large scale, rather than the Government trying to do business in an unknown territory, which also results in politicisation.

A private company has to pay 15% of its entire revenue and 30% of its profits to the Government. The Government earns a significant amount of money from businesses by doing nothing. Therefore, there is no logic in intervening in markets and bearing an unnecessary burden when there are options to earn money easily.

The Government can earn even more money through PAYE taxes when employees of a private company earn more than Rs. 100,000. Accordingly, the total amount the Government earns from businesses is quite significant. Hence, it is more lucrative for the Government to hold a regulatory role rather than to engage in business.

Unfortunately, Sri Lanka does not have a competition commission. It was reported that Sri Lanka’s market leader in telecommunications was planning on acquiring another company in the market. Ideally, this transaction should go through a competition commission to evaluate the impact on customers. Sadly, Sri Lanka does not have a competition commission; nor does the competition law include or address mergers and acquisitions.

In the process of privatising, it is vitally important to have independent valuations for the company and manage the transaction transparently with no unsolicited proposals. The bidding process must be competitive and the balance sheet has to be improved to reap the maximum benefit.

According to Jayaweera’s estimation, taking an average of the share price (prior to shares becoming overvalued by privatisation discussions), the Government should be able to earn about Rs. 50 billion by trading shares. If the Government were to earn that money through dividends, it would take about 50 years. If Rs. 50 billion is invested at 10% interest, it should provide a return of Rs. 5 billion to the Government, which is five times the current earning through dividends.

National security

The second argument is on national security. This is a common argument made by politically-appointed boards of SOEs, trade unions, and affected shareholders. However, this argument has questionable logic – government ownership and operational management does not automatically ensure national security.

For example, even though the Government operates the petroleum and electricity markets, we still experienced fuel shortages and 12-hour power cuts. In the 2000s, there was a case of importing substandard fuel and during the Yahapalana regime there were fuel lines due to supply chain disruptions. If you recall, there were also times when the internet was blocked during the Aragalaya.

Even during the Yahapalana era, the internet was blocked on several occasions over national security concerns. However, even with prior warnings by the Indian intelligence services, we were unable to avoid the Easter attacks.

Therefore, if we consider facts and logic, national security has a broader mandate which goes beyond arguing that sectors such as energy and power have to be managed by the Government. Even then, petroleum products are not manufactured in Sri Lanka. We are merely importing them in vessels not owned by the Government.

Simply having control over the distribution channel does not ensure national security when the ships and entire supply chain can be interrupted by many others. The same applies for electricity and telecommunications – all high-tech equipment is supplied by multiple countries and interruptions can occur at any point.

The resistance to SOE reforms is driven more by emotion than logic. In a context where we are emotionally attached, rationale does not make any sense. But the challenge is that emotions do not count when we consider the facts and figures of the economic crisis. Unfortunately, emotional attachments cannot rescue Sri Lanka from the crisis. I wish they could.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Deane Jayamanne

April 30, 2023

Reforms: The need of the hour

Deane Jayamanne

April 30, 2023

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

Former Governor of Anambra State in Nigeria Peter Obi once wisely said: “No country can progress if its politics is more profitable than its industries. In a country where those in government are richer than the entrepreneurs, they manufacture poverty.”

This is quite relevant to the Sri Lankan scenario. If so, we have been manufacturing poverty over the years and the key tool used for it by politicians is weak governance structures. Even if we apply the best economic policy in the world, it would mean nothing in a society without governance.

The current reforms which are being discussed should also give equal weight to governance. Among the key reforms that have been discussed in Parliament, governance reforms should be given paramount importance. Suggested reforms related to the Central Bank, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), social safety nets, and reforms on trade accounts are key components.

Governance reforms and CBSL independence

In the current set-up where the President is also the Finance Minister, there is a possibility of diluting governance structures. Both tasks are quite challenging and attempting to facilitate both will likely result in nothing, especially during an economic downturn. When reforming the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), in order to ensure its independence, appointment of positions should come through the Constitutional Council.

Conversely, if the integrity of the Constitutional Council is diluted, the process of appointment of members to both the Monetary and Governance Boards of the Central Bank will not be channelled through proper checks and balances. This lack of governance structures in the CBSL leaves room for diluted appointments, particularly at a time when there is a need for a dynamic and credible Central Bank.

Governance reforms for SOEs

State-Owned Enterprise reforms require a governance structure with depth. At the moment, the SOE Restructuring Unit has called for proposals for transaction partners, but the selection of the partners should be managed with transparency.

One way to ensure transparency is to avoid information asymmetry by providing access to information to potential interested partners of SOEs. Unsolicited proposals should be avoided and competitive bidding processes have to be adhered to. While we can consider privatisation of some entities, it is important that we implement governance structures for the remaining SOEs.

Governance structures on procurement have to be in the forefront. In a nutshell, SOE reforms have to be driven by governance reforms. Otherwise, one bad transaction can drive public confidence down and lead Sri Lanka back to square one. Managing as well as reforming SOEs has provided a window of corruption for politicians.

As Peter Obi said, one tool for politicians to become richer than the industries itself has been either to appoint their henchmen to maintain corruption, while sometimes they try to make profits when the reforms take place. Both have to be avoided and can only be minimised through governance reforms.

Governance reforms for social safety nets

Another set of key reforms which requires a deeper governance structure are the reforms related to social safety nets. It is no secret that the existing Samurdhi programme has been politically driven and poorly targeted. However, a new scheme has been gazetted and people have been asked to apply for the new social safety net.

Ideally, the new selection has to be verified again through a third party organisation where political intervention is at a minimum. The selection of these third party organisations have to be made through a transparent procurement process. Otherwise, the same political biases on selecting the most vulnerable people will prevail.

We have to keep in mind that every reform or every move provides a window for politicians to profit more than entrepreneurs. That is the very reason why we need to limit Government involvement and bring in governance structures. Only solid governance structures and people’s solidarity with governance structures can stop politics from becoming more profitable than industries.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Deane Jayamanne

April 23, 2023

Economics behind much-needed reforms

Deane Jayamanne

April 23, 2023

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

The three types of fears we endure as a country

Fear is a universal emotion and we have all come across three major types of fear in our lives. The fear of failure is the most common one that often paralyses us and prevents us from taking action. The fear of success is a lesser-known fear that keeps us from achieving our goals. Finally, the fear of judgement causes us to fear being evaluated by others.

Unfortunately, in Sri Lanka, the fear of reform has encroached upon all three of these personal fears. In public policy, there are currently three primary fears:

Fear of reforming State-Owned Enterprises

It is no secret that Sri Lanka’s State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have been one of the main reasons for the country’s economic crisis. Everyone agrees that SOEs need to be reformed, but there are different opinions on how to do it. Some believe that the losses are mainly due to corruption of politicians and political influence against reforming SOEs. Others believe that with capable management, SOEs can become profitable.

However, in my opinion, the absence of competent people to run State institutions and corruption are both symptoms of the absence of a market system.

In a market system, the focus is on making profits and minimising corruption. However, it doesn’t mean everything is perfect; rather, it is geared to minimise corruption and maximise profits. Therefore, opening up the market can help solve this issue.

One key fear that is brought forward is the risk of high prices when the markets are opened. However, based on our experience, prices decrease with the opening of markets and the allowing of more competition.

For instance, Sri Lanka’s telecommunications prices are some of the lowest in the region and the entry of Lanka IOC into the fuel market did not increase prices. On the other hand, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) incurred losses and it had to pass these on to taxpayers. Its losses of Rs. 632 billion over eight months in 2022 will have to be borne by the people of Sri Lanka through the contribution of about Rs. 28,000 per person.

It is evident that the absence of a market system is one reason for the profits not being sustainable, so we always drift back to where we started. The losses of the CPC for the first eight months of 2022 are greater than the allocation for both health and education together, which is about Rs. 550 billion.

Such high losses are indicative that all loss-making institutes, including the CPC, SriLankan Airlines, and the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), should be restructured to reduce the burden on the Treasury and thereby the taxpayer.

The focus is not only on prices but also on the quality and accessibility of the service. In the past, during fuel shortages, people paid Rs. 1,000 per litre on the black market. Therefore, simply claiming that the Government can provide fuel at a lower price is not very logical. We need a Sri Lanka where people can afford and decide what they want to use rather than the Government deciding what we should do. This is the Sri Lanka we envision.

Regulation is crucial and the Government needs to create a regulatory framework to ensure a level playing field. The current Public Utilities Commission Act has provisions, but we need to move towards a competition commission to ensure fair competition.

Fear of competition

The second fear among Sri Lankans is the fear of competition. We consider competition as one person winning and the other person losing. However, it is a formula where both sides can win. The fear of competition mainly arises in global trade and we often wish to block our competition by imposing high tariffs. However, this has been detrimental to Sri Lankans and to our businesses and we need to move past this fear.

It is also important to remember that competition is the key to maximising consumer welfare. Competition brings in choice to the market and leads to competitive prices. Simultaneously, it incentivises firms to optimise their processes and functions – the key to remaining competitive and profitable. Therefore, competition should be thought of as a win-win scenario where firms are incentivised to optimise their operations and grow while consumers enjoy maximised welfare.

3. Fear of imagining a prosperous Sri Lanka

It is understandable to have concerns and fears about the transition to a more prosperous Sri Lanka, especially when it involves a shift away from a State-dependent model. However, it is important to recognise that a prosperous Sri Lanka can bring many benefits and opportunities for its citizens.

A prosperous Sri Lanka can create jobs and provide opportunities for entrepreneurship and innovation. It can also attract foreign investment and contribute to the growth of the economy. With a thriving economy, the Government will have more resources to invest in areas such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure, which can lead to an overall improvement in the quality of life for its citizens.

It is also important to acknowledge the role of the private sector in providing essential services and goods, as well as contributing to the growth of the economy. While the Government has a role to play in ensuring the safety and wellbeing of its citizens, it is often the private sector that drives innovation and progress.

As Helen Keller once said, avoiding danger does not necessarily lead to safety in the long run. It is important to face our fears and embrace change, even if it is uncomfortable at first. With the right mindset and a willingness to adapt, a prosperous Sri Lanka can be within reach.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Deane Jayamanne

April 9, 2023

Why Sri Lankans fear development