Scrambled supply: How maize, markets and policy cracked egg prices

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

Just after the election, social media chatter quickly shifted to egg prices, which had dropped by about Rs. 10. Many speculated that a kickback had ended, causing the price drop. However, a few days later, the prices shot up again by Rs. 10 and memes started circulating, joking that now the hens were taking the kickback.

But there is a deeper story behind egg prices and the poultry industry in Sri Lanka. The primary cost in poultry is the cost of feed, with maize being the main ingredient, making up about 60% of the feed by weight. The cost of maize accounts for around 45-60% of the total cost of poultry production.

In Sri Lanka’s poultry market, 40% is through wet markets while 60% is through formal markets, which maintain high standards to supply to hotel chains. At one point, we were even exporting poultry products to the Maldives.

When it comes to eggs, however, the cost factors are front-loaded. Layer chickens must be imported and raised to maturity, which takes longer than broiler chickens. The cost of feeding these layer chickens, especially with maize prices being so high, significantly increases production costs.

After the economic crisis, inflation caused maize prices to soar from Rs. 45 to Rs. 165 per kg, pushing up poultry product prices. Our local maize market, which is the main cost driver for the poultry industry, is tricky.

While Sri Lanka requires about 500,000 MT of maize annually, we only produce 300,000 MT, leaving a shortfall of 200,000 MT, which is imported through a licensing process. This system creates a cartel of importers, driving up maize prices and, consequently, chicken and egg prices.

Maize imports are also heavily taxed, including Ports and Airport Development Levy (PAL), Value-Added Tax (VAT), and Customs duty, further increasing costs. Meanwhile, local maize production is inefficient, yielding only about 1.5 MT per hectare compared to the global average of 2.5 MT per hectare. This low productivity forces farmers to encroach on forests to increase their yield, creating environmental challenges.

In response to the crisis, the Government imposed price controls on eggs. Since farmers had already invested in layer chickens, they were unable to maintain them under the price controls and ended up selling the chickens for meat. This led to a reduction in egg production, driving prices higher.

In the formal market, producers with thin profit margins halted capacity improvements, keeping production stagnant. As a result, we were unable to expand exports, as there was no capital to fund growth. The combination of price controls, maize import licensing, and high tariffs led to low production and high prices.

Eventually, the Government resorted to importing eggs from India. This highlights how distortions in the maize market, coupled with tariffs and inefficient agriculture, have hurt Sri Lanka’s poultry industry.

Despite all the costs, including shipping, insurance, and handling, the cost of an imported egg is still cheaper than locally produced eggs, mainly due to irregularities in the maize market.

Over time, the market began to stabilise. The drop in egg prices right after the election was likely due to lower demand during election week, especially from eateries and bakeries. As eggs are perishable, the surplus likely drove prices down. However, as soon as prices fell, people began buying more than usual, which quickly drove demand back up and prices along with it.

While it’s possible that some farmers and wholesalers may have hoarded eggs, the primary reason for high egg prices lies in Government interference in the maize market and price controls. The well-intentioned move to make protein more affordable through price controls has had the opposite effect – something that happens with many policy decisions.

The new Government must focus on making decisions based on data, facts, and economics, not just good intentions. In economics, good intentions don’t guarantee good outcomes.

Promoting competition over price controls

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

The decision to import eggs is a classic example of how price controls are backfiring. It proves once again the main argument put forth by Advocata’s research report ‘Price Controls in Sri Lanka – Political Theatre’ published in 2018. It suggests that price controls are merely politically motivated and have never succeeded in bringing prices down. 

The story of price controls imposed on eggs has two sides. Firstly, it is about competitiveness. According to media reports, an imported egg can be sold for Rs. 25-30 while a local egg costs over Rs. 60. When an egg is imported, it involves both a value chain and the distribution of margins. At the production stage, the farmer keeps a margin. 

Secondly, there are taxes and storage charges at customs of the particular country we import eggs from. There are also charges for insurance and shipping. Once the consignment reaches Sri Lanka, there will be tariffs and handling charges imposed by Sri Lanka Customs. There may also be storage expenses in Sri Lanka and the importer and retailer will keep the margins. Even with all these costs, local eggs are almost twice as expensive as imported ones. This indicates the inefficiency of local egg production. 

Restrictions hamstring production  

A primary reason for the uncompetitive and expensive nature of local egg production is the price controls imposed by the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA). A few months ago, the CAA imposed price controls, expecting a drop in prices. As we all remember, eggs simply disappeared from the market. 

The poultry industry as a whole was also challenged. No poultry farmer could survive at the prices set by the CAA. Some micro- and small-scale poultry farmers had to scale down while some had to close down. They sold their laying hens for meat amid the price controls. Daily production of eggs dropped to about four million per day from seven million. The price cap was later increased but the damage had already been done. Additionally, due to import controls, essential chemicals for the poultry industry were in shortage.

As a result, the poultry supply contracted and led to a price hike. Now we expect to import eggs. Accordingly, the price controls not only increased prices but also damaged the efficiency of the industry. 

We often forget that markets are interconnected. The poultry industry is often interlinked with maize production as it is the main source of food for poultry. Price fluctuations of maize affect the prices of chicken and eggs. Any intervention in the form of price controls, import controls, or regulation has a direct impact on the industry. 

It was not the first time we faced such a situation. Many governments and many trade ministers fell into the same trap over and over again by failing to understand the fundamentals. 

To recall some incidents in the recent past, there was a price cap of Rs. 60 per 1 kg of dhal and Rs. 100 for tin fish during the Covid-19 pandemic. Just compare these prices now. There was also a price cap for rice and at one point, a former military officer was appointed to conduct field raids on rice mills. 

There were times a price ceiling was imposed on hoppers and egg hoppers. Similarly, in 2015, there was a price cap on plain tea and tea. In the same year, price controls were imposed on broiler chicken. Traders started selling chicken parts instead of whole chicken to avoid price controls. Have you ever noticed prices being reduced due to price controls? The simple answer is no. 

Instead, things worsened. After repeating the same mistake over and over again, the poultry industry experienced the same bitter results. Its effect was felt not only by the poultry industry, but by the poorest sections of the population as well. 

Eggs are a necessary protein intake for the poor as they do not have refrigerators for storage. Eggs are also one of the main ingredients in the bakery and restaurants industries, which involve an extended value chain. Everything has been affected and some restaurants have even had to downsize their menus due to unavailability of eggs at one point.       

Solution 

Improved efficiency in local egg production is important to reduce the cost per egg and increase the output, thereby reducing the price of eggs. The farmers in India and Pakistan are doing something right to be able to sell eggs at Rs. 35 after passing through many touchpoints and cost centres. 

We have to make ourselves productive and efficient. Efficiency works when there is competition and when we allow competition to work. We cannot restrict competition for selected markets because one way or the other, all markets are interconnected. We have to redesign the CAA as an agency to promote competition and not as an agency to regulate prices. 

The same is valid for the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL). The solution is setting up institutions to accelerate competition across all industries. The role of the Government is to remove barriers for market operations, not to control prices. Price controls make things worse and it cannot bring down prices, but it will kill the industry and many other connected industries.  

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.