Contemporary Issues in Agri-Food Supply Chain in Sri Lanka

Originally appeared on the Morning

By Thilini Bandara and Niumi Amarasekara

Introduction

In the current context of food insecurity, building a resilient agri-food supply chain is crucial for Sri Lanka. The agri-food supply chains are a set of activities involved in a “farm to fork'' sequence including farming, processing, testing, packaging, warehousing, transportation, distribution, and marketing. So far, the supply chains have been providing mass quantities of food for the country’s growing population. However, the supply chains are plagued by a number of issues stemming from within and outside the supply chain. Hence this article sheds light on various inefficiencies prevalent in the agri-food supply chain and  the way forward to establish a more resilient supply chain.

Overview of agri-food supply chain in Sri Lanka

Agri-food sector plays a major role in the Sri Lankan economy. It is a key source of food supplies which comprises a complex system of supply chains involving farmers, distributors, processing firms, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers.

Figure 01: Flow of agri-food supply chain

Issues in the agri-food supply chain sector

The country has been experiencing inefficiencies within its agriculture sector due to various issues stemming from within the supply chain.  For instance, Sri Lanka  annually loses 270,000 metric tons of fruits and vegetables along the supply chain, which are estimated to cost around Rs. 20 billion. This accounts for 30-40% of the total agri-food production in the country.One of the key causes of this is the lack of integration between supply and demand . For instance, farmers cultivate their lands without having a scientific understanding of future needs and in the absence of a national-level cultivation strategy to fulfill local demand. This leads to an overproduction of certain crops, which ultimately results in considerable losses for farmers.

Nevertheless, high food miles set along the supply chain also causes a high degree of inefficiency. For instance, when commodities from different parts of the country reach the main economic centers , only to be redistributed, it can cause high cost and further damage to the produce. Also maladaptation of post harvest handling practices at various stages of the supply chain further lead to high wastage and inefficiencies.

Apart from that, a number of additional factors (eg: information asymmetry, limited supply of inputs, lack of infrastructure and support facilities, poor agricultural policies, import restrictions, and price controls, etc.) also hinder the smooth operation of supply chains. Finally, these can lead to significant pricing disparities of the commodities across the island.

Source: Weekly prices, Hector Kobbekaduwa Research & Training Institute

In order to analyze the pricing disparities of Raw Rice (white) across the island, the average of weekly prices were obtained from the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute for four weeks from 6th of January 2023 to 2nd of February 2023 of 10 districts across Sri Lanka. Colombo was taken as the base district and the percentage changes were calculated to identify whether there is a significant difference in the prices of each district against Colombo.

Due to lower average retail pricing than Colombo's average retail price, it can be seen from the calculations that in certain paddy production areas like Ampara, Hambantota, and Matara have greater percentage changes of 13.2%, 10.2%, and 9.97% against Colombo respectively. In comparison to Colombo; Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, and Kurunegala also have relatively lower average retail prices. The common reason behind this is that food supply to Colombo varies between types of commodities and does not depend on the closest production areas. The variations in distance and transport costs are reflected in the price disparities in Colombo. Apart from that, some other reasons for the price disparities across the island could be possibly due to complex interactions between supply and demand, income variation, uneven population distribution, price controls and the price of close substitutes.

Way forward

In light of the aforementioned issues, continuous development and tailor made policies should be introduced to establish a more resilient agri-food supply chain. Hence below are a few recommendations that can be introduced to the system.

• Establish post harvest handling hubs across main cities of the island to improve the efficiency of the sector

• Farmers/ supply chain actors to be more vigilant on proper post harvest handling techniques to minimize losses

• Utilize railway system as a cost effective source of transportation

• Promote the use of digital marketing platforms to connect different actors across the supply chain

• Integrate these platforms with financial services such as online payments, credit-based transactions, and loan facilities through banks 

• Enhance collaboration among different actors across the supply chain to reduce cost and increase efficiency (eg: promote forward and backward integration via business partnerships)

• Encourage private sector participants to invest in modern technologies along the supply chain to reduce losses

• Encourage innovations/processes that can improve the efficiency and reduce losses along the supply chain
  

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

What next for Sri Lanka?

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

New predictions are emerging that debt restructuring and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Board-level agreement may take until the end of this year. Another ongoing discussion is about the Local Government Elections and postponement of elections. Electricity tariffs are to be increased and 10 banks have been downgraded by Fitch Ratings as a recalibration of Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating.

Overall, it appears that economic reforms are being sidelined faster than expected, without realising the consequences of each action. It is true these complicated problems have no easy, straightforward solutions. No solution will be perfect and the validity, impact, and effect of any solution will be weighed against time. To put it simply, a solution that appears valid and reasonable today may not sound reasonable in a few weeks or months.

Each action has its consequences and inaction will also have consequences. It will be a battle between the consequences of action and inaction and the continuation of this for the next few years.

Reforms and restructuring

Let’s take the case of reforming State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). With the election cycle commencing with Local Government Elections, attempts at restructuring SOEs such as the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) may be delayed. This delay means that inefficiencies will continue and tariffs will be increased without any competitive basis. This will in turn impact all businesses as well as macroeconomic indicators given the monopoly and the size of the electricity business. It may also extend the duration of power cuts and pave the way for another wave of protests, worsening the business environment.

Reforms too will be painful. Trade unions and some employees will be affected and an electricity monopoly can interrupt the life of the common man in multiple ways, with political and capital implications.

The cost of not implementing reforms will be much higher politically and economically, as it would be a cyclical result. Therefore, the reasonable decision is to restructure loss-making SOEs. Unfortunately, there is no other way out and delaying this further may invite darker years in the future.

The delays in the debt restructuring process will have its own consequences, both economically and geopolitically. The debt restructuring delay is a repercussion of maintaining bad foreign relations.

Poor international relations

How we treated India over the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) and in discussions on the East Container Terminal was extremely unprofessional and irresponsible. There is a significant difference between disagreement, negotiation, and unprofessional treatment.

By suspending the Light Rail Transit (LRT) project, we lost the respect and trust of Japan. We even annoyed China with the fertiliser matter and continuous regulatory delays with the Port City project. Our relations with the Middle East deteriorated with the cremation of dead bodies of the Muslim community during Covid.

We are not even in the good books of the US over the way we dealt with the MCC grant. Simply put, we do not have a friend who will extend a helping hand during troubled times. It is said that countries have longer memories than people. As such, we have limited our options due to our own grave mistakes.

A stalemate in a crisis

Economics and politics often go hand in hand. During an economic crisis, instability in politics is unavoidable. Our President does not have a direct mandate and the composition of the Parliament may not really reflect the people’s voice with the dawn of the completely new sociopolitical environment.

This was one reason the discussion of a common minimum programme was floated by concerned individuals and professionals, but it appears that this too has been discarded, with everyone slowly turning their attention to the election cycle. The calibre of our politicians is too inferior for them to understand the dynamics involved and to come up with responsive and novel policies and political options.

We are now in a stalemate, with a lot of short-term distractions. In such situations, we become distracted and waste our time on non-value adding activities without realising the massive deterioration of the quality of life. A deeper analysis shows that while the absence of economic reforms is a major issue, the fragility of our institutions is a bigger concern, with the institutional capability for the functioning of a basic society being almost nonexistent.

Solutions

Appointing capable and credible human resources for debt negotiations with China is essential to avoid delays. Acceleration of debt restructuring will unblock many other barricades, enabling us to move forward. There is a huge vacuum of capable human resources needed to carry out reforms. Therefore, providing space for already appointed committees to recruit more capable people and working out a time-bound solution matrix is important. The solution now lies in setting up institutions that can execute reforms to get us the required results.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Promoting competition over price controls

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

The decision to import eggs is a classic example of how price controls are backfiring. It proves once again the main argument put forth by Advocata’s research report ‘Price Controls in Sri Lanka – Political Theatre’ published in 2018. It suggests that price controls are merely politically motivated and have never succeeded in bringing prices down. 

The story of price controls imposed on eggs has two sides. Firstly, it is about competitiveness. According to media reports, an imported egg can be sold for Rs. 25-30 while a local egg costs over Rs. 60. When an egg is imported, it involves both a value chain and the distribution of margins. At the production stage, the farmer keeps a margin. 

Secondly, there are taxes and storage charges at customs of the particular country we import eggs from. There are also charges for insurance and shipping. Once the consignment reaches Sri Lanka, there will be tariffs and handling charges imposed by Sri Lanka Customs. There may also be storage expenses in Sri Lanka and the importer and retailer will keep the margins. Even with all these costs, local eggs are almost twice as expensive as imported ones. This indicates the inefficiency of local egg production. 

Restrictions hamstring production  

A primary reason for the uncompetitive and expensive nature of local egg production is the price controls imposed by the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA). A few months ago, the CAA imposed price controls, expecting a drop in prices. As we all remember, eggs simply disappeared from the market. 

The poultry industry as a whole was also challenged. No poultry farmer could survive at the prices set by the CAA. Some micro- and small-scale poultry farmers had to scale down while some had to close down. They sold their laying hens for meat amid the price controls. Daily production of eggs dropped to about four million per day from seven million. The price cap was later increased but the damage had already been done. Additionally, due to import controls, essential chemicals for the poultry industry were in shortage.

As a result, the poultry supply contracted and led to a price hike. Now we expect to import eggs. Accordingly, the price controls not only increased prices but also damaged the efficiency of the industry. 

We often forget that markets are interconnected. The poultry industry is often interlinked with maize production as it is the main source of food for poultry. Price fluctuations of maize affect the prices of chicken and eggs. Any intervention in the form of price controls, import controls, or regulation has a direct impact on the industry. 

It was not the first time we faced such a situation. Many governments and many trade ministers fell into the same trap over and over again by failing to understand the fundamentals. 

To recall some incidents in the recent past, there was a price cap of Rs. 60 per 1 kg of dhal and Rs. 100 for tin fish during the Covid-19 pandemic. Just compare these prices now. There was also a price cap for rice and at one point, a former military officer was appointed to conduct field raids on rice mills. 

There were times a price ceiling was imposed on hoppers and egg hoppers. Similarly, in 2015, there was a price cap on plain tea and tea. In the same year, price controls were imposed on broiler chicken. Traders started selling chicken parts instead of whole chicken to avoid price controls. Have you ever noticed prices being reduced due to price controls? The simple answer is no. 

Instead, things worsened. After repeating the same mistake over and over again, the poultry industry experienced the same bitter results. Its effect was felt not only by the poultry industry, but by the poorest sections of the population as well. 

Eggs are a necessary protein intake for the poor as they do not have refrigerators for storage. Eggs are also one of the main ingredients in the bakery and restaurants industries, which involve an extended value chain. Everything has been affected and some restaurants have even had to downsize their menus due to unavailability of eggs at one point.       

Solution 

Improved efficiency in local egg production is important to reduce the cost per egg and increase the output, thereby reducing the price of eggs. The farmers in India and Pakistan are doing something right to be able to sell eggs at Rs. 35 after passing through many touchpoints and cost centres. 

We have to make ourselves productive and efficient. Efficiency works when there is competition and when we allow competition to work. We cannot restrict competition for selected markets because one way or the other, all markets are interconnected. We have to redesign the CAA as an agency to promote competition and not as an agency to regulate prices. 

The same is valid for the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL). The solution is setting up institutions to accelerate competition across all industries. The role of the Government is to remove barriers for market operations, not to control prices. Price controls make things worse and it cannot bring down prices, but it will kill the industry and many other connected industries.  

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Regulating prices: From price mandates to more competition

Originally appeared on Daily FT, Lanka Business Online, Colombo Telegraph, Ceylon Today and the Morning

By Thiloka Yapa

As price controls ultimately lead to instability in the system, a surer way to achieve stability and growth is to allow markets to flow freely and responsibly

The Government recently removed the maximum retail price (MRP) on rice with a decision to import a buffer stock of rice to prevent any shortages.1 This is an important step in the right direction. Opening up the market for more competition will reduce the market power of the alleged oligopoly of large-scale rice mill owners. While the removal of the MRP is commendable, the Government’s action on this front has been anything but consistent. Despite the frequent use of price controls and their appeal to politicians, economists are generally opposed to them, except perhaps for very brief periods during emergencies. While the pandemic is undoubtedly an emergency, Sri Lanka’s current economic problems are largely due to poor policies. 

Although the politicians who impose them may be motivated by good intentions, they are counterproductive, often leading to higher prices and damaging the market. 

The Parliament recently passed an amendment to the Consumer Affairs Authority Act which increases fines on traders who do not follow the MRP issued by the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA).2 Raising the penalties seems to indicate that the Government intends to impose controls more strictly. The reason that some of the ill-effects of price controls were not experienced is because they were not strictly enforced. Previous research by Advocata Institute revealed that only larger producers and the larger retailers in the formal sector adhered to them; in the informal markets and among smaller retailers these were routinely ignored so the shortages and black markets associated with price controls were not widespread.3 Strict enforcement and larger fines could see products disappearing from shelves as traders find it no longer profitable to engage in the trade of the controlled commodities.  

Price regulation and its impact 

Price controls are administered through the Consumer Affairs Authority Act which has the power to regulate prices.4

Under Section 10(1)(b)(ii) of the Act, the authority, in protection of the consumer, can call retailers and wholesale traders to register their stocks and warehouses with the CAA. Moreover, under Section 18, the Minister in consultation with the CAA is empowered to specify any good or service, as essential to the life of the community, by way of gazette notification. Manufacturers and traders are restricted from increasing prices without the prior written approval of the CAA. A period of 30 days is provided for the authority to examine the application for any price revision and convey the decision to the applicant company. 

This Section permits the CAA to make decisions on behalf of traders in the market, whenever it regards a product to be ‘essential’. Further, under Section 20(5), the Authority can fix the maximum price above which goods and services cannot be sold. It was under this section that the recent MRP for sugar, rice and LP Gas was imposed. 

This regulation could be a barrier against market competition, as it may deter the entry of new firms and discourage innovation which curtails competition. Competition plays a vital role in a market economy. It incentivises firms to challenge each other, create new markets and expand existing markets. While this leads efficient firms to enter and grow, inefficient firms shrink and exit. Firms innovate, leading to lower prices and enhance consumer choices. While the objective of the Consumer Affairs Authority Act No. 9 of 2003 in itself is to promote competition and protect consumers, the impact of the provisions which allow the authority to regulate prices lead to the exact opposite, resulting in high prices and less choice for consumers.

Prices play a key role in a market economy. It is a signal, wrapped in an incentive. Change in prices incentivise individuals to respond; either by consuming less of a product, or shifting to alternatives. Price controls distort these signals. Since the Government defines market prices when controls are imposed, it forces the market to function based on the imposed price. As producers and consumers respond to controls, they produce an excess supply when the prices are set high or increase the demand when prices are set low. This leads to wastage and shortages, exacerbating the fundamental economic problem that the controls expect to solve. 

A 2018 report on price controls by the Advocata Institute revealed that price controls have limited value in controlling the cost of goods, particularly in the consumer market due to weak enforcement.5 The report highlighted other ill-effects: traders surveyed have admitted to the problem of low-quality goods being brought into the market, meaning that quality suffers as a result. As traders are under pressure to comply, they resort to importing substandard products to supply at prices close to the controlled price.

The enforcement of ad-hoc controls also adds up to the costs of suppliers, as these regulations distort their cost structures. This was the case when the Government slashed the Special Commodity Levy on sugar, big onions, dhal and canned fish in November last year, imposing an MRP on these commodities.6 The sellers who were impacted, opposed the MRP and continued their sale at high prices, claiming they would incur massive losses since the stocks were purchased before tax revisions, at a much higher price. 

Price controls also result in policy uncertainty. This is a situation where there is ambiguity in the stability of future rules and regulations. While entrepreneurs in the market will then keep attempting to predict what regulators would do in the future, this comes at the expense of consumers, who would have otherwise been the main-focus of these businesses.7

What can be done?

Sri Lanka urgently needs to rethink government interventions that increase the costs of competing. At a recent discussion hosted by the Advocata Institute, the newly-appointed Governor emphasised the importance of growth and stability. He stated that the lack of stability would lead to uncertainty. As price controls ultimately lead to instability in the system, a surer way to achieve stability and growth is to allow markets to flow freely and responsibly. For this to happen, as one major reform, Sri Lanka needs to amend the sections in the Consumer Affairs Authority Act that permits the authority to regulate market prices. In doing so, it is also worthy to review Sections 34 to Section 38 in the Act, which aims to promote competition and revisit the mandate of the CAA. 

1.  Ruwani Fonseka, ‘Alagiyawanna explains removal of MRP on rice’, The Morning, September 28, 2021 https://www.themorning.lk/alagiyawanna-explains-removal-of-mrp-on-rice/ (accessed September 29, 2021)

2. Parliament of Sri Lanka, ‘Hon. Speaker endorses the certificate on the Consumer Affairs Authority (Amendment) Bill’, Parliament of Sri Lanka. September 23, 2021, https://parliament.lk/en/news-en/view/2263 (accessed September 25, 2021)

3. Advocata Institute, ‘Price Controls in Sri Lanka-Political Theatre’( Sri Lanka: Advocata Institute, 2018), 24 https://www.research.advocata.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Price-Controls-in-Srilanka-Book.pdf (accessed September 25, 2021)

4.  Consumer Affairs Authority Act No. 09 of 2003 

5. Advocata Institute, ‘Price Controls in Sri Lanka-Political Theatre’( Sri Lanka: Advocata Institute, 2018), 9 https://www.research.advocata.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Price-Controls-in-Srilanka-Book.pdf (accessed September 25, 2021) 

6. ‘Revised taxes, MRP complicate commodities market’, The Sunday Times, November 22, 2020 https://www.sundaytimes.lk/201122/business-times/revised-taxes-mrp-complicate-commodities-market-423077.html (accessed September 30, 2021)

7. Institute of Economic Affairs, ‘Flaws and Ceilings: Price Controls and the damage they cause’ (London: London Publishing Partnership, 2015) quoted in Advocata Institute, ‘Price Controls in Sri Lanka-Political Theatre’( Sri Lanka: Advocata Institute, 2018), 43 https://www.research.advocata.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Price-Controls-in-Srilanka-Book.pdf (accessed September 25, 2021)
   
   ‘රටේ ආර්ථිකය හා අපේ හෙට දවස’ YouTube video, posted by “Advocata Plus,” September 25, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JvWQWn7cHw (accessed September 25, 2021)
   

Thiloka Yapa is the Research Analyst at the Advocata Institute and can be contacted at thiloka@advocata.org. Learn more about Advocata’s work at www.advocata.org. The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute, or anyone affiliated with the institute.