Non-negotiable reforms for election manifestos

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

The year 2024 will be an election year. The general flow of events is that each political party and candidate will launch a manifesto of a grand-scale and present their plans for the people and the country. Most of these promises will not be implemented or will only be half implemented. In certain cases, the opposite of what was promised will be implemented. 

Most manifestos are presented in general terms with a target of 20 years ahead with little data. Many manifestos across all party lines are wish lists with no action plans.

In my view, this time there is a slight difference. 

Regardless of the party formation or whoever the presidential candidate will be, there are few reforms that are non-negotiable. Ideally, across all manifestos, there are five basic ideas which have to be the common denominator.

Strengthening social safety nets 

Following the worst economic crisis in Sri Lanka’s history and high inflation, about four million people have fallen below the poverty line. That puts seven million people under poverty. The recent Household Income and Expenditure Survey carried out by LIRNEasia and the World Bank indicates significant poverty levels and aftereffects of poverty due to the economic crisis. As a conscientious society, we need to take care of our poor people with the social safety net. 

The social safety net is not just an allowance. It is a system and a process of targeting the right people, providing an exit route, and with proper administration. The current Aswesuma programme is making some progress with World Bank assistance, but regardless of the political leader who comes to power, it is a non-negotiable condition that social safety nets have to be strengthened and improved. 

The current process has too many loopholes which have to be addressed and improved. Simplifying the process, providing the exit route, and monitoring and depoliticising has to be a continuous effort from the new leadership of the country.

SOE reforms 

Thus far, mandatory SOE reforms have been painfully slow. Many parties with vested interests are trying to delay it until the election. However, the continuation of SOE reforms is a must. 

Colossal losses, interference in the private sector, intervening in markets, creating an unfair playing field, and inefficiencies are a few reasons why SOEs played a pivotal role in Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. SOEs are vehicles of corruption and have diluted entrepreneurship and Foreign Direct Investments significantly. Without reforming SOEs, the future of Sri Lanka appears to be bleak. 

The principles announced by the SOE Restructuring Unit are in the right direction, but the SOE Act and reforms of the Ceylon Electricity Board, Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, and many other networking industries are a must. 

Anti-corruption and governance reforms

Execution of anti-corruption laws and governance reforms is another area which has no room for negotiation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Governance Diagnostic and many other locally-developed reports on governance provide direction on what needs to be done. 

Strengthening our Judiciary system, transparency and accountability in our tax system, removing tax exemptions, and repealing the Special Commodity Levy and the Strategic Development Act too falls under governance and anti-corruption reforms, as those acts provide the legal opportunity for corruption. 

There is a strong sentiment from people on the contribution of corruption to the crisis, so taking long-term measures regarding corruption is a must. Anti-corruption and governance reforms go beyond going after corrupt politicians. Rather, it is a system and framework for minimising government influence. Some reforms are complementary and reforming SOEs is also a key component of anti-corruption and governance reforms, as these SOEs play a vital role in corruption.

Following the IMF programme and debt restructuring 

Given the international financial architecture, we have no option other than sticking to the IMF programme. We can negotiate some of the actions that we have promised, but overall indicative targets and reforms have to be maintained. Otherwise, it will be yet another incomplete IMF programme and the debt restructuring process will be in jeopardy. 

Debt restructuring and the continuation of the IMF programme are very much interconnected. At the moment, external stakeholders are concerned about political instability and in fact, the IMF’s first review identifies the political risks for the continuation of the IMF programme. A commitment from any political leader on sticking to the programme will help Sri Lanka in rebuilding relationships with the world.  

Trade reforms and joining global supply chains 

We have to grow our economy to emerge from this crisis. Tax revisions make it likely that growth will slow down and the only solution to grow small island nations like Sri Lanka is through global trade. Our problems regarding global trade are mainly the problems in our own regulations and systems. 

We have to remove our para-tariffs and simplify the tariff structure for a few tariff lines. Not only will this help trade, but consumers will also have a greater choice of goods and services as well as competitive prices. 

On the other hand, the Government can improve the revenue from Customs since at the moment, the high tariffs are a main reason for revenue leakage in the form of corruption. Trade reforms are about growth, minimising corruption, encouraging exports, and assuring reasonable prices. Even at present, after very high taxes, there are levies such as the Special Commodity Levy, Ports and Airports Development Levy, and a huge array of taxes which hinder the competitive nature of our economy.

These five policies, in my view, are non-negotiable. If any administration deviates from them, it is very likely that we will fall back a few miles behind where we started. 

Enough rent seeking, bring on competition

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

I studied at a semi-government school. Students studying in these schools pay a school fee every month. Due to financial constraints, some students found it rather difficult to pay this fee. As a solution, we decided to organise a food fair to raise funds as opposed to collecting money, which we thought would be a direct burden on most parents. The fair required students to bring food that was tradable. I remember referring to this as a “salpila” in Sinhala. Most parents contributed by sending in homemade food items such as hot dogs, sherbet, short eats, faluda, and sweetmeats.

However, the food fair faced a significant challenge. We were only permitted to have the fair within the 20-minute lunch break and were strictly advised not to disturb the academic timetable for the day. I was not too pleased with this and proudly suggested a “brilliant” idea to increase the demand and sales of our little “salpila”. My “brilliant” idea was to close down the school canteen during the lunch break on that particular day, so students will be left with no choice but to purchase from the “salpila”. However, to my dismay, the then principal explicitly turned down my request. He then explained to me how short-sighted my proposal was.

It was then that I was introduced to the concept of “rent-seeking. Rent-seeking is the manipulation or alteration of the market for financial gains. This exactly was what we had proposed. The principal went on to question us on how we could match the demand of 3,000 students and the plight of the canteen owner who was on a rent agreement with the school.

I argued back, questioning “what is the big loss the canteen owner is going to make just for closing down the canteen for 20 minutes” and “why can’t the principal support us in such a noble effort of assisting our classmates to continue their education”. Our principal explained to us that bending the rules to make profit is not the way to do business or to help our classmates. However, he said that we can compete with the canteen focusing on goods that are not available there.

Now, as an adult, every time I see an overnight gazette notification or stories of import taxes on sugar, CESS on tiles, import duties on menstrual hygiene products, I revisit my school days and my short-sighted thought process which I believed to be “brilliant” at the time. The most recent story on the matter is the sugar importation conundrum which took the limelight with the COPA report. There is one school of thought that it is just a revenue loss for the government and there is another school of thought that this is a fraud. However, it is clear that the consumer has become the net loser. It is unfortunate that the discussion is not on the economics of it but rather pointing fingers at each other and comparing which losses are greater: Bond fiasco or sugar tax reduction.

Overnight gazettes: Open window for fraud and corruption

Having low duties on imports is always better for imported commodities as ultimately the tax has to be paid by the consumer. While the taxes have to be low, it is equally important for the taxes to be consistent and predictable so the room for market manipulation is limited. On the other hand, using quantitative restrictions to limit imports would encourage rent-seeking, a concept proposed by Prof. Anne Krueger.

It has become the habit of all consecutive governments to impose various import duties and taxes on various import items which affect the prices drastically. When the taxes are changed overnight in significant amounts inconsistently across and selected commodities, it will act as a barrier for small players to enter into business as they do not have the capacity to absorb tax losses or match massive quantities as it is difficult to decide on prices.

As a result, the importation of commodities such as sugar only has a handful of importers who act as an oligopoly and can manipulate market prices. Especially when taxes are brought down from large amounts such as from Rs. 50 to 25 cents, there is a higher chance of getting insider information and manipulating the market. As a result, few traders have the opportunity to get to know information early and bring in stocks early and store in bonded warehouses where only the taxes are applicable on rates where the consignment is released. This allows them to take the tax advantage by keeping prices unchanged. Or in worst cases, taxes can be brought down overnight and it can be increased again overnight, favouring a few individuals just after the goods are cleared at the port, and this is how the overnight gazette notification opens the window for rent-seeking. This can be seen every time when a budget is presented and many speculations float around on the vehicle market and many other commodity markets.

Consecutive governments are of the belief that overnight gazette notifications have become a tool to raise revenue for the government as well as to regulate markets, and this sugar tax has proved that it is not only a completely ineffective tool, but also a window for corruption.

Government’s policy inconsistency with tax policy

One of the main reasons provided by the Government to keep the corporate tax and income tax unchanged is to provide policy consistency so the business can predict future trends and support growth. The same thinking process needs to be applicable for indirect taxes as well. Both direct taxes as well as indirect taxes have similar consequences when it comes to inconsistency. Finance Ministry officials have agreed that high tariffs on sugar add a burden on the cost of living and that is one reason to bring down taxes, which is the right way to think about it.

At the same time, we should not forget the tariff on other commodities such as tiles, bathware, menstrual hygiene products, construction steel, other food items, cement; all product categories and commodities too add to the cost of living of people. When we have double and multiple standards on tariffs, that too distort markets and open opportunities for rent-seeking.

The policy of self-sufficiency has been challenged

On the other front, with the reduction of sugar tariffs, acknowledging that the tariffs have caused to increase the prices and shrink the supply has proved that self-sufficiency in sugar is an impractical concept to achieve. In a recent interview, Trade Minister Bandula Gunawardana has mentioned that import controls caused small-scale exporters who export coconut-related products and food items to be badly affected. The same argument has been highlighted by this column since the day the self-sufficiency policy was pronounced, highlighting the consequences on both losing our export markets, volumes, as well as our export competitiveness. 

Imports restrictions by themselves cannot cause pressure on the LKR, as it does not reduce the demand for sugar. What can cause pressure on the rupee is the ill-managed Monetary Policy that causes the pressure on the LKR and the balance of payment crisis. After serious import controls and trade restrictions, that is one reason why the rupee has achieved a historic low last week.

Though how good may be our intention, not knowing the right concepts not only distorts markets, but also brings united consequences for people and their quality of life. Like my principal advised me many years ago, the way to combat issues is not by rent-seeking but by competition.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Falling in love and developing a country

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

Why both are about processes and not single moments

Simon Sinek, a management consultant and the author of the book “Start With Why”, in a video interview provides some interesting thoughts about measuring “how much you love”. He questioned the moderator: “Do you love your wife?” and the moderator answers: “Yes, of course,” and Simon asks back: “Can you prove it? What are the metrics that you use to prove that you love your wife?”

Obviously it’s a difficult question to answer by anybody, because while love is a feeling which we know exists, it is very difficult to prove in which form it exists. Simon then explains how “falling in love” is a process rather than just an event. It is true there is love at first sight but proving how much you love someone and quantifying it is not easy. Simon explains how tiny little acts like greeting, listening, sharing, caring, dating, and understanding convert to love over a period of time, and that it’s really difficult to pinpoint at which point it became love or how much we love someone. You can check it yourself by trying to recall at what point you really fell in love with the ones you love.

I feel that Simon’s thoughts are not just relevant to love but also applicable to the concept of development of a country. Many of us think development is just a one-off event without really understanding it as a process that occurs over time. We always associate the “development of Sri Lanka” to actions and outcomes such as electing appropriate leaders or utilising an existing natural resource. If we look at recent Sri Lankan history, we have always been of the opinion that one single event can transform Sri Lanka into a high-income country. As a country, we were excited when there was news of a gold mine or even a single incident about a herbal syrup developed for Covid, thinking that this could have taken Sri Lanka out of poverty, by exporting the syrup to the entire world. We tend to get excited when we see news stories on exploring our valuable phosphate mines or hear about explorations of crude oil in our marine territory. We repeatedly forget that all these resources have zero value if we do not have the right institutions as a country. Just take Venezuela for example. They were the fifth largest crude oil supplier in the world, but the exploitation of such a valuable resource is not reflected in the ailing economy.

Sri Lanka’s case remains quite similar. We too have an adequate resource base, but the same resources have become a barrier to our development. This is mainly because we have failed to set up the right institutions. As a result, we always tend to celebrate events and just spend the days, rather than thinking about our economic development in the long term. Now the public discussion on economics is on the China swap agreement of $ 1.5 billion and on the investments in the West Container Terminal (WCT). In both cases, we have failed to propose a credible plan for our debt sustainability or to set up an open transparent tender process on selecting investors for the WCT. This has been the same operating procedure across all governments. So, most likely, these two discussions would just become events to celebrate, which will then be forgotten after a few weeks’ time. Then, we will be back at square one after a few months’ time on our development agenda.

Many have misunderstood the role and purpose that institutions play in the road to development, here in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankans generally perceive a building or an agency as an institution. The Supreme Court or Election Commission are also associated as the bedrock institutions of a country. However, in reality, it is what they represent in a democracy that really defines the meaning of an institution. So the meaning of an institution goes beyond physical places.

According to Jim Collins’ book “Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap…and Others Don’t”, it is not the time tellers but the clock builders that matter. Building an institution is something like building a clock where the concept of time is communicated to anybody at any time without any discrimination. It is a platform where time is shown to all, even without the presence of the actual builder. Just take the election process as an example. The election process is an institution where people have the right to exercise their choice in selecting the person who is suitable to govern. It is not the Election Commissioner or the Election Commissioner’s office that matters. Of course the physical building matters, but it is the concept of election that matters rather than the office.

It is the same when it comes to our economy and facing economic challenges. The recent swap we received would be a great relief for Sri Lanka. Especially at this juncture, as this column highlighted many times, this creates a need to engage with our bilateral partners and international agencies. But instead of just celebrating the swap, we need to direct the institutions to ensure our debt sustainability. We should establish a mechanism for managing our debt, under a single office and a system to avoid borrowing beyond our capacity to repay. Our currency and Central Bank must have the institutional power to roll out the right monetary policy to ensure that our currency is worth holding and people’s hard-earned money is not devalued due to higher inflation.

When it comes to ports and foreign direct investments (FDIs), our need is not to speak to investors and select them single-handedly and offer unsolicited projects, but to set up the right institutional framework, so that any investor will have the ability to invest and to make the process simpler, easier, competitive, and transparent. That is a “clock” that we have to build instead of celebrating the short-lived “time telling” moment. We have to face the moment of truth at one point and our moment of truth for the last few decades is that we have failed to reach $ 4,000-plus per capita income except for a short period before Covid. Our basic needs such as housing, transportation, education, and healthcare have been the same as the last few decades and the improvements are not taking place. As a result, Sri Lanka has become what it is today.

The fundamentals behind sustainable development involve setting up the institutions. When institutions are built and strengthened, the physical infrastructure falls in place, human values such as genuine, integrity, and hard work get recognised. 

The path to development is like falling in love, as per Simon Sinek’s example. It’s a result of so many tiny little actions. Same as “love”, the importance of institutions cannot be seen sometimes or even cannot be measured. But it’s there and it’s the foundation of the development of a country if we are serious about making Sri Lanka a free and a prosperous nation.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.