Colombo Port City Debate! Live Fireside Commentary

The Advocata Institute hosted a live fireside commentary on the Port City Commission Bill Parliamentary debate took place on 19th and 20th of May. The commentary was streamed online from 2.30.P.M onwards.
The session featured a pool of experts who shared their opinions and arguments on the timely and relevant issue. The speakers included an expert panel of speakers; Vinod Hirdaramani, Suren Fernando, Manjuka Fernandopulle, Rohan Samarajiva, Dayan Jayathillake, Lihini Fernando, Milinda Rajapaksha, Lakshman Siriwardana, Murtaza Jafferjee, Charindra Chandrasena, Indika Sakalasooriya, Ganeshan Wignaraja, Thulci Aluwihare, Mevan Pieris, Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, Amar Raj Singhe and Iroma Perera.
The session explored the impact of the bill on areas such as Sri Lanka’s economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Sri Lanka’s external relations, and the impact on organisations and businesses.

You can watch the full discussion here

Watch this video on Youtube 

Five areas for consideration in Colombo Port City Economic Commission Bill debate

Originally appeared in the Daily FT, Ada Derana Biz, Sunday Observer

Advocata Institute submitted a letter to all members of Parliament on Monday 3 May, on the proposed Colombo Port City Economic Commission Bill. The letter was addressed to all MPs, highlighting the potential opportunity the Port City project presents and observations on how to maximise the economic opportunities. 

The full letter can be read on www.advocata.org. The recommendations and observations are summarised below. 

1. The case for Special Economic Zones in Sri Lanka

  • Special Economic Zones (SEZs) have been a tool employed around the world by bringing in positive value addition to an economy. More broadly, SEZs are places that have all the facilities that firms need to thrive. SEZs can play an important role in creating the right conditions for industrial success. This might include suitable land plots, hard infrastructure, and site-specific policies or clearances. Moreover, firms in SEZs can benefit from each other’s proximity – they can be each other’s suppliers and customers – thereby making a strong case for Sri Lanka to utilise SEZs to achieve economic growth.

  • If implemented with the right policies and a globally accepted regulatory framework, the Colombo Port City has the potential to emulate some of the successful financial centres in the region and become a driver of growth that Sri Lanka needs.

  • However, the success of an SEZ can only be determined by evaluating the linkages generated within the local economy. In order to become successful, Port City should facilitate positive spillovers in technology and know-how that enable the local economy to enhance productivity.

  • In order to become truly effective, given the thicket of red tape in Sri Lanka, SEZs require a certain degree of discretionary powers. The provision of such powers allows SEZs to operate independently and achieve productive targets without having to deal with tedious and time-consuming processes that hobble businesses in the rest of the country. This is why SEZs can effectively accelerate economic growth while also being an incentive for Foreign Direct Investments.

2. The issues with tax concessions 

  • Taxes are the most important source of revenue for the Government. However, in 2020, tax revenue fell to 8.1% of GDP, exacerbating an already precarious fiscal situation. With a history of fiscal deficits, the compounding effects of debt financing has snowballed into serious concerns regarding debt sustainability.

  • The tax concessions as provided for in the Bill can create distortions within the economy while seriously impairing fiscal sustainability. Businesses located within the Port City will benefit from the agglomeration effects of being in the Port City and having access to world-class infrastructure. Therefore an investment in the Port City should yield a much higher return, thus not requiring further fiscal incentives. Research also suggests that the effectiveness of tax incentives in attracting foreign investment is low. Having only a marginal impact in attracting FDI compared to other factors.

  • While recognising the need to be competitive vis-à-vis other zones, the provisions to provide tax relief over and above the tax concessions already provided for under the Inland Revenue Act No. 24 of 2017 will further compromise the progressivity of the tax system and affect competitive neutrality.

  • There are, however, instances when fiscal incentives (tax credits, grants, etc.) may be warranted, for example, where private returns are below the cost of capital but social returns (positive externalities) can be generated. However, the existing Inland Revenue Act provides for such incentives – we recommend that the power to grant fiscal incentives be retained within the Ministry of Finance.

3. Considerations on financial regulation 

  • Developing a fully-fledged OFC (Offshore Financial Centre) requires the relaxation of capital controls to permit free movement of capital, improving the ability to compete globally. However, given Sri Lanka’s current status of debt sustainability, sovereign rating downgrade, and foreign exchange crisis, it may not be the most appropriate time to set up an OFC. Stringent foreign exchange controls in place as of now may not allow the relaxation of capital controls.

  • The success of a financial centre depends on the confidence and trust that it evokes in investors and customers. The key to building this trust and confidence is dependent on two factors. First, the governance structure in place, i.e., the laws, rules and regulations governing financial products and services. Second, the way in which the regulatory authority/ies apply and enforce the regulations. Further, these regulations must conform to international best practices set out by institutions such as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and Financial Action Taskforce (FATF) recommendations on anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism and proliferation (AML/CFT), to ensure global acceptance. Any attempts to circumvent these standards could have adverse impacts on financial institutions operating in the rest of the country as well.

  • There is, however, a case for moving from a rules-based financial regulation, as is currently in place, to a more principle-based financial regulation. Such a move encourages financial innovation and facilitates the expansion of financial services in a dynamic global environment. There is also a case for unified regulation of financial services (a single omnibus legislation which has been adopted by other financial centres). The Bill only refers to regulation of banks and capital market institutions. It is silent on whether insurance companies would be allowed to operate within this jurisdiction and who would regulate that sector. It is of vital importance that this issue be addressed if the Port City is to be operated as an OFC.

  • According to the draft Bill, licensing (Section 42(4)) and regulating (Section 45) for offshore banking businesses is done by the Commission with the concurrence of the Monetary Board under the Banking Act No.30 of 1988. However, as per the Bill, the examination of such entities would be undertaken by a “competent authority” appointed by the Port City Commission (Section 49), and the Monetary Board may only call for information and reports from these entities through the Commission (Section 51). But the Bill is silent on the expertise and experience of those who would be appointed by the Commission to undertake the examination of these entities. Our recommendation is that until a separate financial regulatory framework for the OFC is set up in the Port City, and until persons with the necessary capabilities are recruited, the existing regulators must undertake both the regulation and supervision of financial institutions set up within the Port City.

Advocata also call upon members of Parliament to make an addition to clause 5, as subsection (k) reading “Uphold laws and regulations on anti-money laundering and terrorism financing” in light of the above mentioned AML/CFT issues.

4. The need for flexible labour regulations 

  • The Colombo Port City expects to operate as a service-oriented SEZ that propels Sri Lanka to be a major trading and services hub within the Indian Ocean. It hopes to attract top-notch IT, financial service firms and types of businesses and economic activity that will be highly innovative. In order for such firms to thrive and grow, a labour environment that accommodates failure, mistakes and high rates of experimentation is crucial.

  • This requires a flexible labour market with low redundancy and restructuring costs that promotes swift adaptability to market changes. Prioritising labour solutions over capital will result in job creation that will ultimately benefit the country. However, the labour regulations in operation in Sri Lanka does not facilitate the same.

  • Unemployment is a social problem, the burden of which must not be borne by the employers alone. Hence, we recommend the establishment of an Unemployment Insurance Scheme similar to EPF and ETF funds to compliment flexible labour regulations.

5. Recommendations on Parliamentary oversight and accountability

  • At present, the Bill states that the Commission should submit to the President or Minister in Charge an annual report setting out the status of operations, income and expenditure of the Commission. Alongside this, it also provides for the audit of accounts of the Commission. However, as the main parliamentary oversight mechanisms in place to examine the activities of the government bodies responsible for public accounts and public enterprises are the COPA and the COPE, we recommend that the Port City Commission be made accountable to these committees.

  • In relation to the composition of the Commission, it is our recommendation that the Secretary to the Treasury be appointed as an ex-officio to the Commission since this would allow for fiscal accountability.

  • Parliament should also consider the provision of including a mechanism for staggered appointments to the committee would ensure institutional stability, preserve institutional memory and political representation. In line with the international governance standards, Parliament should also consider having a minimum quota for women’s representation in the Commission.

The Advocata Institute recommends the consideration of the reforms outlined above to achieve maximum economic outcomes. 

Murtaza Jafferjee on Face the Nation: Port City Economic Commission Bill, the good, the bad and the ugly

Murtaza Jafferjee Chairman of Advocata Institute was featured on the News1st Face the Nation: Port City Economic Commission Bill, the good, the bad and the ugly programme that was aired on the 19th of April 2021. Murtaza comments on the Good and the Bad of port city and why do we need the Port City workaround

Click here to watch the full video:

Dhananath Fernando on Newsline with Faraz Shauketaly. April 19, 2021

Dhananath Fernando, Chief Operating Officer of the Advocata Institute speaks how Special Economic Zones are needed because doing business in SriLanka is difficult and how the Port City is not going to solve all our problems. He addresses this on Newsline with Faraz Shauketaly. April 19, 2021.

Click here to watch the full video:

Media coverage on the launch of Advocata's Bath Curry Indicator

Daily Mirror: Sri Lanka gets localised food price tracker - ‘Bath Curry Indicator’

Sri Lanka yesterday saw the launch of its own localised food tracker ‘Bath Curry Indicator’ (BCI), a spin on the popular ‘Big Mac Index’ conceptualised by The Economist in 1986. 

The BCI, designed by Colombo-based free market think-tank Advocata Institute, is aimed at tracking the retail prices of the goods that could be included in a packet of rice and curry. 

The indicator, that is specific to Colombo at present, tracks on a weekly basis the prices of common food items that go into rice packets and provides an insight on the rate of change of the prices over time. 

The Central Bank’s weekly economic indicators publication is used to feed the indicator. The retail prices used are from the Pettah Market, except where data is unavailable, in which case data from the Narahenpita Economic Centre are taken into account.

The items on the BCI are selected from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016.  

Pointing out that the food prices are a fairly volatile indicator, Advocata stated the prices are not only dependent on the seasonal and weather patterns but are also affected by policies.

While the BCI is not a measure of inflation, it indicates the manner in which the cost of a specific basket of goods has moved over a short period, thus providing an insight on the impacts of certain policies, as they come into effect.

Furthermore, Advocata noted that although the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) is a comprehensive method of calculating inflation and is a useful indicator to help assess the country’s macroeconomic conditions, there are some shortcomings in the process. 

The index does not necessarily measure consumer reactions and preferences that change relative to price changes, the think tank noted. 

Read the full article


News 1st: Prime Time Sinhala News 10 PM | (07-04-2021) රාත්‍රී 10.00 ප්‍රධාන ප්‍රවෘත්ති

News 1st: Prime Time English News - 9 PM | (07-04-2021)






NEWS RELEASE: Advocata Institute launches a novel policy tool to track everyday food price changes

NEWS RELEASE

Originally appeared in the Ada Derana Biz, Daily FT, The Morning, The Businessnews.lk, Daily Mirror, Ada Derana, Lanka Business Online, Economy Next

Advocata’s latest policy product tracks the average retail prices of a basket of goods and provides an indication of how much prices have changed over time.  With the use of such tools, anyone including policymakers and politicians alike has access to track price fluctuations. This could enable anyone to see if policies have a direct or indirect effect on food. Which is an essential item and can have a direct impact on the food consumed by households. The indicator launch was held at the Tulip Hall of the BMICH on the 7th of April 2021 and was live-streamed on Advocata’s Facebook and YouTube. 

The newly launched Bath Curry Indicator tries to provide such a policy direction while highlighting the importance of the affordability of food. Around 35% of household expenditure is on food and drink. Therefore the Indicator is a tool to see how policies coming into effect directly or indirectly impact food prices.  Naqiya Shiraz, a research executive at the Advocata Institute spoke about the rationale behind the Bath Curry Indicator by commenting that the BCI “represents any average Sri Lanka household. The items are Samba rice, beans, pumpkin, tomatoes, brinjals, coconut, green chillies and fish. Therefore it is important to understand the decisions that impact the prices of goods.

According to Economist Deshal De Mel, “The idea behind the BCI is that in Sri Lanka the cost of living is a concern. The inflation in Sri Lanka has been of single-digit levels for the last two years but it is still a concern for the public.  So Advocata’s Bath Curry Indicator is similar to the ‘Big Mac Index’ by The Economist. It is simplistic and real.”  Rehana Thowfeek Zain (Economic Researcher and Blogger) was of a similar opinion when she commented that such indicators can be used to highlight the impact of policies that affect people’s food consumption.  According to her, the BCI will “capture a relatable way to cover the cost of living and also investigate the merit behind politicians when they use the cost of living as a hook in their election manifesto”   She further commented that  “53% of Sri Lanka population can’t afford a healthy diet, That’s a huge number. We are food secure but are we nutrition secure? Kids don’t develop as they should. Trade policies should focus on the overall objective and cater to the health of Sri Lanka’s population.” Thereby highlighting the socioeconomic impact of rising food prices on the general public. 

The panelists for the discussion were Deshal De Mel (Economist), Rehana Thowfeek Zain (Economic Researcher and Blogger) and Naqiya Shiraz (Researcher). The discussion was moderated by Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute). 

The BCI Indicator can be accessed at www.bci.advocata.org.


Advocata is an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We conduct research, provide commentary and hold events to promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka. Visit advocata.org for more information.    

Advocata spokespersons are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 077 621 6788

CONTACT:

Yasodhara Kariyawasam

Communications Manager, Advocata Institute

Email: yasodhara@advocata.org


Online Discussion: Economists Take On The Cost Of Lunch

The Advocata Institute hosted an online discussion on the topic "Economists Take On The Cost Of Lunch" in line with the launch of the 'Bath Curry Indicator' by Advocata on April 07th at 12 noon at Tulip Hall, BMICH.. The panel for the discussion included Deshal de Mel (Research Director, Verité Research), Rehana Thowfeek Zain (Economic Researcher and Blogger)) and Naqiya Shiraz (Research Executive, Advocata Institute). The session was moderated by Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute)

You can also watch the full discussion here

Watch this video on Youtube 

NEWS RELEASE: Launch of the “Bath Curry (බත්ක​රි ) Indicator” by the Advocata Institute

Originally appeared in the Daily FT, Lanka Business online, Lanka Talks and The Morning

Live on Advocata YouTube and Facebook pages on the 7th of April, 12pm onwards. 

Food inflation has risen over the last year, although the overall inflation is low. According to the National Consumer Price Index, overall prices rose by 3.7% between January 2020 and January 2021 but food inflation rose by 5.9%.

While this is a matter of concern to the public, items like turmeric and green gram which made the news after rising to dizzying heights tend to steal the spotlight. While Sri Lankans appreciate a good plate of rice and curry, the cost of this essential meal is something that must be discussed.

“Bath Curry'' (බත්ක​රි ) is something that all Sri Lankans can immediately identify with. The “Bath Curry Indicator” (BCI) by the Advocata Institute is a Sri Lankan spin on the infamous “Big Mac Index” by The Economist. It simply tracks prices of a limited basket of goods that are consumed in Sri Lanka, and provides an indication of how much prices have changed over time.

The event for the launch of the BCI will feature a panel discussion that explains the BCI, what it measures and its potential for use in policy analysis.

The expected panelists will be Deshal De Mel (Economist), Rehana Thowfeek Zain (Economic Researcher and Blogger) and Naqiya Shiraz (Researcher). The discussion will be moderated by Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute).

In-person seating is limited with strict Covid-19 guidelines. The event will also be live streamed on Advocata’s social media pages.

To register for the event please visit www.advocata.org/events 

Dr. Roshan Perera and Professor Sirimevan Colombage joins the Advocata Institute as Senior Visiting Fellows

Originally appeared in Daily FT

Dr. Roshan Perera and Professor Sirimevan Colombage joins the Advocata Institute as Senior Visiting Fellows.

Advocata Institute is pleased to announce that Dr. Roshan Perera and Emeritus Professor Sirimevan Colombage have taken up roles as Senior Visiting Fellows at the Advocata Institute.  In their new roles at the Colombo based independent public policy think tank, they will be playing a leading role in providing insight, analysis and guidance on key economic issues that affect Sri Lanka.  

Dr Roshan Perera is an eminent public policy specialist with 20+ years of experience in formulating and implementing monetary and fiscal policy. She also has expertise in regulating and supervising financial institutions and in helping strengthen approaches to managing risks. She was a Director at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and presently works as an independent consultant to multilateral agencies both in Sri Lanka and abroad. She has also served on many boards including the Institute of Policy Studies and the Sri Lanka Institute of Directors.  Presently she also sits on the board of Senkadagala Finance PLC. She joins the Advocata Institute with her world-class academic credentials where she recently completed a Masters in Public Administration as an Edward S Mason Fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard  University USA, 2020.  She also has a PhD in Economics from the University of Melbourne Australia, a Master in Environmental Geography from the University of Illinois in Chicago Chicago, IL, USA  and a Master in Economics and a  Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of Colombo

Prof. Sirimevan Colombage, an eminent economist, served on the academic staff of the Department of Economics, University of Ceylon, Peradeniya, before joining the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. He had a career of 30 years in Economic Research and Statistics Departments of the Central Bank in different capacities. He was the Director of Statistics of the Central Bank when he opted to return to academia as the first Chair and Senior Professor of Social Studies at the Open University of Sri Lanka. He has a B.A. First Class Hons. (Economics) from the University of Ceylon, Peradeniya, and M.A. (Economics) and Ph.D. (Economics) from the University of Manchester, UK. Prof. Colombage has wide expertise in central banking and monetary policy, fiscal operations, international trade and finance, econometric modelling and macroeconomic frameworks. His research includes collaborative studies with the University of California, University of Manchester, University of Lund, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Asian Pacific Development Center, Asian Productivity Organization and South Asian Network of Economic Research Institutes. He is currently a member of the Working Committee on Social Sciences, National Science Foundation and a Co-Editor of the Sri Lanka Journal of Social Sciences. He is also a member of the Board of Management of the Social Policy Analysis and Research Center, University of Colombo. He is an external reviewer of the Central Bank Staff Studies Journal. Prof. Colombage has published widely in refereed journals and authored several books and monographs.

 Professor Sirimevan Colombage made the following comments about joining the Advocata Institute “ I consider it a great honour and privilege to join the team of the esteem Advocata Institute. I hope that we can work together to explore and address the critical socio-economic issues for the betterment of the people in Sri Lanka as the world at large.  Dr. Roshan Perera had the following comments, “I have been very impressed by the cutting-edge policy analysis coming out from the Advocata Institute.  I consider it a privilege to be invited to join this team and to contribute to the public policy debate in Sri Lanka.”

Dhananath Fernando COO of the Advocata Institute made the following remarks “We are honoured to have distinguished academics and economists along with the likes of Dr Roshan Perera and Professor Sirimevan Colombage as senior visiting fellows at the Advocata Institute.  I look forward to working closely with them to improve and scale-up Advocata’s research products and outputs and become the leading voice in Sri Lanka’s public policy discourse”.

For more on Advocata’s scholars, members and associates see www.advocata.org/about

Online Discussion: ලංකාවේ කම්කරු නීතිය කාන්තාවන්ගේ ආර්ථිකයට හිතකාමීද?

On the 5th of March the Advocata Institute hosted a panel discussion on the topic ලංකාවේ කම්කරු නීතිය කාන්තාවන්ගේ ආර්ථිකයට හිතකාමීද? | Gender Discriminatory Labour Laws in Sri Lanka. The discussion was organised to bring awareness to legal and policy barriers that prevent women from entering and sustaining in the workforce. The panelists for the discussion were Hon. Ali Sabry (Minister of Justice), Madhavie Gunawardena (Former Commissioner of Labour (Women and Children Affairs), Department of Labour| Director Telecommunication Regulatory Commission), Malsirini de Silva (Deputy Head of Legal Research at Verité Research) and Kanishka Paternott (Human Resources Business Partner, Fonterra).

You can also watch the full discussion here

Watch this video on Youtube 

New Policy Interventions by Central Bank Could Negatively Impact Exporters

Aneetha Warusivitarana, Research Manager at Advocata Institute was featured on News 1st : Prime Time English News on 20-02-2021. She comments on how the new policy interventions by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Central Bank of Sri Lanka could negatively impact exporters.

Click here to watch the full video:

Online Discussion: වරාය සංවර්ධනයේ ඉදිරි දැක්ම: විකිණීමක්ද ආයෝජනයක්ද?

The Advocata Institute hosted a discussion on the future of ports development in Sri Lanka featuring Dr. Nalaka Godahewa (State Minister of Urban Development Coast Conservation Waste Disposal and Community Cleanliness), Rohan Masakorala (Chief Executive Office Shippers' Academy, Colombo), Asanga Abeyagoonasekera (Strategic Advisor on Geopolitics and International Security), moderated by Dhananath Fernando (Chief Operating Officer, Advocata Institute) and Sathya Karunarathne (Research Executive, Advocata Institute). The event was held on Friday, February 12th, 2021.

Watch this video on Youtube 

NEWS RELEASE: වරාය සංවර්ධනයේ ඉදිරි දැක්ම:විකිණීමක් ද, ආයෝජනයක් ද?

Originally appeared in the Daily FT and Economy Next

LIVE discussion with limited participation on 12th February 2021 from 6.00 pm onwards 

Advocata Institute is hosting an event on the topic වරාය සංවර්ධනයේ ඉදිරි දැක්ම:විකිණීමක් ද, ආයෝජනයක් ද? and the surrounding policy issues on the 9th of February  at the BMICH. 

The event will feature key presentations and discussions by a panel of experts on various issues surrounding the development of ports in Sri Lanka.   

The expected panelists will be Dr. Nalaka  Godahewa  ( State Minister of Urban Development, Coast Conservation, Waste Disposal and Community Cleanliness), Mr.  Rohan Masakorala (Chief Executive Officer, Shippers Academy, Colombo) and Mr.  Asanga Abeyagoonasekera (Founding Director General Institute for National Security Studies). The discussion will be moderated by Dhananath Fernando (COO - Advocata Institute) and Sathya Karunarathne (Researcher - Advocata Institute). 

The event is free and open to the public.  In-person seating is limited with strict Covid-19 guidelines. The event will also be live streamed on Advocata’s social media pages.  

To register for the event please visit www.advocata.org/events 





Advocata Institute submits constitutional proposals

Originally appeared in the The Morning

  • Recommends series of inclusions to Drafting Committee

The Advocata Institute has submitted a series of proposals for consideration to the committee drafting the new Constitution. As an independent public policy think tank advocating for the implementation of sound public policy ideas, the institute considers itself responsible to advocate for constitutional provisions that protect economic freedoms. The constitutional protection of these freedoms, Advocata stated, is fundamental to a democratic society, and more importantly, an effective and efficient economy.

There are at least two important reasons why constitution drafters must consider the economic implications of a constitution. The first is that the constitution of a country constitutes the economy as much as it constitutes the polity, and as such, a constitution can have both good and bad consequences for a society’s economic growth and development. The second is that modern constitutions often provide the fundamental framework, supplemented by subordinate laws, for good economic governance as part of the Constitution’s role in ensuring transparent and accountable government. 

This second dimension of a constitution’s role in economic governance can, in turn, be expressed in the form of two key objectives: (a) the minimisation of agency costs; and (b) the maximisation of effective management of externalities, both positive and negative. 

Recommended reforms to be enshrined in the new constitution 

1. Full-time Minister of Finance

For 23 of the last 30 years, the Head of Government in Sri Lanka has simultaneously held the title of Minister of Finance.

A government can only govern if it maintains control of public finance. Maintaining a balance between government income and expenditure is one major dimension of control of public finance. This is intrinsically challenging, because it is much easier to spend money – and also to spend money badly – than it is to raise money. Invariably, there are multiple powerful supporters with ideas on new spending. But powerful support for raising revenue is rare.

A major role for the Minister of Finance is to advance the case for both, finding appropriate new revenue sources and scrutinising the effectiveness of public spending. These tasks are rarely popular. 

In most countries, it is for this reason that Ministers of Finance are powerful members of the ruling party or coalition, most of the time. They are unable otherwise to execute their job effectively. Public finances will typically be badly managed if they are weak, or if the job is effectively delegated to someone lacking ministerial status. However, while they are normally powerful members of the ruling party or coalition, Ministers of finance are very rarely also the head of government (e.g. prime minister, executive president). 

Experience shows that combining the two roles is usually a big mistake: In those circumstances, the responsibilities of the Minister of Finance are typically performed poorly. There are three reasons for this. 

One is that the job of the Head of Government is already very demanding; it is almost impossible for any one person to combine that with being an effective Minister of Finance. The tasks associated with being Head of Government almost always gain priority. 

The second is that a Head of Government who is also Minister of Finance can more easily overrule the Central Bank, allowing short-term fiscal priorities to drive monetary policy. Further, the Governor of the Central Bank is conflicted between fulfilling the core objectives of the bank and their allegiance to the President, who is the appointing authority and also the Finance Minister.

The third is that resisting political spending pressures is generally particularly hard for the Head of Government, who is the leader of the ruling party or coalition. The normal and proper role of the Minister of Finance is to play “bad cop” in the face of those pressures – to allow the Head of Government to explain to political supporters that they would like to accede to their requests, but the Minister of Finance will not agree.

2. Include fiscal rules in the Constitution

The persistently high fiscal deficits successive governments have maintained since Independence have been the major source of Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic instability. Such high fiscal deficits have led to very high levels of public debt and large current account deficits in the Balance of Payments, resulting in the value of the Sri Lankan rupee depreciating steadily. 

Usually, the fiscal deficits and higher levels of debt coincide with election cycles. Successive governments have spent public resources very heavily towards elections by making promises on subsidies and handouts out of nonexisting resources aimed at winning elections. 

The Fiscal Management Responsibility Act (FMRA) was introduced in early 2000, to counter this vicious cycle. Provisions in the FMRA were expected to bring in more transparency and accountability of fiscal affairs, together with binding medium-term fiscal and debt targets. 

However, in the event of deviation from announced fiscal targets, there were no strong provisions in the FMRA to compel the existing Government to bring fiscal consolidation back to the announced path. Therefore, the prescribed medium-term targets continued to be postponed through use of a simple majority vote in the Parliament by the ruling party. 

This made the fiscal targets announced under the FMRA highly ineffective. Even introducing stronger fiscal rules under the FMRA will be ineffective, as such provisions are highly likely to be amended by the ruling party through a simple majority in Parliament. 

Therefore, it is necessary to introduce strong fiscal rules with some flexibility to deviate from the announced targets only under exceptional/unforeseen circumstances, such as the pandemic, in the new Constitution. This would ensure that any deviation from the targets in the FMRA would only be possible if approved by a two-thirds majority in Parliament. 

3. Need for an independent budget office

There is clear provision in the Constitution for parliamentary oversight of public finance. 

The institutional architecture has also been established to enable the legislature to exercise its oversight responsibilities through the Committee on Public Accounts (COPA), the Committee on Public Finance (COPF), and the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE). 

However, there is no arrangement to provide Parliament and its committees with access to the independent and non-partisan information and technical analysis that is necessary for these bodies to exercise their oversight responsibilities effectively. 

In several countries, an independent budget office has been set up through the constitution to fill this gap by providing information, simplifying complexity, promoting transparency, enhancing credibility, and promoting accountability through its work. 

This office will also have an independent research unit with the following core functions: a) Creating economic forecasts and baseline estimates;

  1. b) Analysing the Executive’s budget proposals;

  2. c) Developing medium and long-term analysis;

  3. d) Analysing policy proposals, regulation, tax proposals, and economic analysis; and

  4. e) Preparing policy briefs.

This office will operate in a nonpartisan manner, and will be required to provide the same information to both the majority and minority parties. It will avoid making recommendations, and will principally be required to serve committees and subcommittees. Its office should ideally be located separately from the legislature. 

 

4. Auditing and accountability function

Composition of the Audit Services Commission 

The Audit Services Commission, which was set up under the 19th Amendment to the Constitution, was created to provide independence to the functioning of the Auditor General (AG). The AG was vested with the power to audit all Government entities, as well as companies where the Government held over 50% stake in the shareholding. 

It was felt that giving that level of independence to the AG would ensure a free and unbiased view when expressing an opinion on the financial performance of the entities audited by him. 

However, the function of auditing has evolved over time, with significant emphasis on a risk-based approach, coupled with the use of data analytics and computer-assisted tools, in making assessments on the truth and fairness of the assertions in the financial statements under review. 

Currently, apart from the financial statement audit, the AG undertakes a Value for Money (VFM) review of the expenditure incurred by these institutions. While VFM reviews remain relevant even today, the techniques used by the AG’s Department in undertaking such reviews have not kept pace with the developments in the area of risk-based assessments, and the use of data analytics and IT-based audit software and tools to arrive at audit conclusions. 

Presently the composition of the Audit Service Commission comprises the following: 

  1. a) Two retired officers of the AG’s Department who have held office as Deputy AG or above;

  2. b) A retired judge of the Supreme Court, Court of Appeal, or the High Court of Sri Lanka; and

  3. c) A retired Class 1 officer of the Sri Lanka Administrative Service.

It is Advocata’s view that a retired partner of an established audit firm in Sri Lanka should be appointed to the Commission so that they could bring to bear knowledge of these new developments in the field of auditing on the deliberations of the Commission. The said Commission should annually assess the performance of the AG’s Department in the effective discharge of their function, to close the loop on the accountability mechanism. 

Professional qualification of the Auditor General 

Traditionally, the AG has been a fully qualified chartered accountant, keeping in mind the important role he plays in expressing opinions on the truth and fairness of the financial statements of entities where public money is involved. 

With the increasing complexity of auditing and accounting standards in use today, it is imperative that the position of Auditor General of the country be constitutionally or similarly prescribed for such holder of office to be a fully qualified chartered accountant, so that he can effectively discharge the duties constitutionally thrust upon him. 

Need for professional staff to support the work of COPE and COPA 

Reports issued by the AG are generally placed before the COPE and COPA, where the performance of the public enterprises and government agencies are subject to scrutiny using the AG’s report as the basis. However, although some useful discussions do take place therein, there is no mechanism or structure to follow up on the issues raised. 

As a result, due to the lack of effective follow up on the said issues, the concept of accountability suffers. It is therefore imperative that an effective mechanism be set up and staffed with qualified professionals, who can support the COPE and COPA to discharge the responsibilities vested in them. 

Chair of COPE and COPA 

COPE and COPA are bodies set up within the legislature to ensure accountability in the use of public funds. As the utilisation of public funds is often determined by the government in power at a point in time, the standing orders provide for the chairmanship of both committees to be from the Opposition in Parliament. 

However, these standing orders have occasionally been observed in the breach, weakening the accountability mechanism therein. It is suggested that the chairmanship of both these committees be constitutionally mandated to be from among the Opposition in Parliament. 

5. Strengthening the independence of the Central Bank and reducing its agency functions

Appointments to the Monetary Board 

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has not been able to achieve its key objective of economic and price stability over long periods mainly due to two reasons. 

First, large fiscal deficits incurred by the government have been monetised consistently through Central Bank financing due to provisions in the Monetary Law Act (MLA), which allows the Central Bank to subscribe directly to primary auctions in raising funds for the government. Such monetisation of fiscal deficits has a direct conflict with the implementation of monetary policy, which is the prime responsibility of the Central Bank. Such a phenomenon is called fiscal dominance of monetary policy. 

This conflict can be addressed through amending certain provisions of the MLA. Introduction of fiscal rules into the Constitution could also minimise fiscal dominance. Another channel of fiscal dominance often comes through the appointment and removal of members to the Monetary Board by the Minister of Finance when differences emerge between the fiscal and monetary authorities, particularly in relation to setting interest rates. Members of the Monetary Board should be able to make decisions in setting interest rates without undue influence from fiscal authorities. 

While amending certain provisions of the MLA can address this conflict, it would be desirable to recognise the independence of the Central Bank in the Constitution, at least regarding the

process of appointing the Governor and members of the Monetary Board, through a process like appointing key members of the judiciary and AG. This is important to enable the Central Bank to have the capacity to formulate an independent monetary policy, which promotes sound fiscal/monetary co-ordination that supports price stability, rather than having an arrangement that facilitates fiscal dominance. 

Autonomous debt management agency 

Another source of fiscal dominance of monetary policy arises from the responsibility for managing public debt by the Central Bank as an agency function. This has a direct conflict with monetary policy when the Central Bank is required to adopt a tightening stance at the same time, as it is also required to raise financing for the Government as cheaply as possible. This also can be addressed by amending the MLA and other related legislations to remove this agency function from the Central Bank. 

Furthermore, the current management of public debt is dispersed between the Public Debt Department of the Central Bank that manages debt securities (they represent 67% of total central government debt), and two departments of the Treasury; namely the Department of External Resources, which overlooks foreign loans, and the Department of Treasury Operations. 

Such a fragmented arrangement does not lend itself to high performance, for there is no focus and an absence of cross-functional teams (e.g. commercial lawyers, capital market professionals, accountants, economists, etc.), strong leadership, and governance to achieve the mission. The country’s debt is forecasted to exceed 100% of GDP by the end of 2020, hence managing this liability is quite literally the elephant in the room. 

However, given historical experiences and several controversial issues that have arisen in public debt management, simply removing this function from the Central Bank and assigning it to the Treasury instead, could make things worse. The best practice globally is to set up an autonomous debt management agency as a strong institution with proper governance and accountability directly to the Parliament and public. 

Therefore, it is recommended that provisions are incorporated in the new Constitution for the creation of a well-resourced agency with the appropriate checks and balances.

Online Discussion: Building The image of destination Sri Lanka in the post COVID-19

Sri Lanka Tourism (Official Policy Partner - Advocata Institute) hosted an online discussion on 'Building Destination Image for Post Covid Tourism Revival” via Zoom and Facebook on December 11, 2020. 

The discussion featured John Bailey (Managing Consultant, Global Communication Consulting), Kimarli Fernando (Chairperson, Sri Lanka Tourism), Damian Cook (Global Tourism Marketing Consultant | CEO, E Tourism Frontiers), and Dr. Lalith Chandralal (Senior Lecturer, University of Sri Jayewardenepura). The session was moderated by Dileep Mudadeniya (V.P Marketing & Events, Cinnamon Hotels & Resorts).

Watch this video on Youtube 





Revival of the East Container Terminal, essential to turning Sri Lanka into a Freight and Logistics Hub

PRESS RELEASE

Originally appeared in the The Island, Lanka Business Online, Daily FT

Open and Competitive Bidding must be the way forward

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka—  As reported in numerous media sources, a leading Indian consortium is the front runner to develop the stalled East Container Terminal (ECT) in the Colombo Port. An agreement was reached during the tenure of the former government to develop the ECT in collaboration with the governments of India and Japan. However, the progress of the terminal development was stalled due to various reasons. 

The Advocata Institute welcomes the decision of the administration to resume the stalled project. The significance of the Colombo Port is driven by its large volumes of transhipment to India, which now accounts for about 70% of the total quantity of shipments. It is beneficial that both countries continue to strengthen this relationship through trade and economic partnerships. 

However, we would like to provide input on two main policy areas surrounding this project, in order for policymakers and the public to evaluate the efficacy of the upcoming arrangement. 

Accountability through Competitive Bidding 

The key concern of the Government when entering any kind of public-private partnership such as the container terminal development process should be to ensure that it will produce value for money. The commercial partner selected should be the most capable of producing this outcome. An open tender process would allow for a more efficient allocation of resources by using competitive pricing as a tool to reflect real market sentiments and allowing better utilization of resources.  

Tax concessions 

The ECT provides an unique competitive advantage for the operator. The risk in this investment is relatively low, given that the port is already established. The Southport (deepwater port) is well known and has been in existence for 6-7 years. The port is also strategically located with only a 4-hour deviation from the major east-west shipping route. Additionally, its competitor, the CICT terminal is running close to capacity.  Finally, there is a very limited employment multiplier effect that this project can create. The private returns are significantly higher than the cost of capital factoring in-country and project risk.  Taken together and based on the publicly available information, the case for tax holidays on this project is weak. Further consideration must also be placed on the precarious fiscal situation that the country is presently in and the need to mobilise more tax revenue.

The Advocata Institute calls upon the government to strengthen oversight and accountability through an open tender process. We believe that such a policy direction would be more conducive to reaching the administration’s vision of a more productive and prosperous Sri Lanka. 

Key Points 

  • Advocata Institute welcomes the decision to resume the stalled project of developing the East Container Terminal.

  • The economic benefits of developing the East Container Terminal is significant to both Sri Lanka and India- management of this relationship is crucial. 

  • The Advocata Institute believes that a tax holiday should not be granted owing to the advantageous location of the Port of Colombo.  

  • Implementing an open tender process is essential to signal to investors needed to drive future expansion that a fair process will be followed.

Online Talk | Q&A: Predicting Elections: An Introduction to Data Science

The Advocata Institute and Echelon hosted a live talk| Q&A on “Predicting Elections: An Introduction to Data Science” via Zoom on the 4th of November 2020. 

The talk featured Nuwan Senaratna (Computer Scientist/Founder, ColomboLabs) and was moderated by Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute). The talk covered how data science can improve the way we approach social science research. The session also explored the role played by data science in predicting electoral outcomes.

Click here to access the presentation by Nuwan Seneratna

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Is the Economy in Peril? Sri Lanka's National Debt

Murtaza Jafferjee Chairman and Dhananath Fernando, Chief Operating Officer of the Advocata Institute participated in an exclusive News 1st discussion on the topic “IS THE ECONOMY IN PERIL?” with Chandra Jayaratne Former Chairman of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and Dr. W. A. Wijewardhena Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

To access the opening presentation by Dhananath Fernando

Click here to watch

Low revenue growth, main reason for primary deficit – Advocata Chairman

Covered by Ceylon Today

“Post-independence Sri Lanka has continuously had a fiscal deficit, while it had a Primary Balance surplus only in 1954, 1955, 2017 and 2018,” stated Advocata Chairman Murtaza Jafferjee while speaking on Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability. 

However, the primary balance situation reversed in 2019 due to the Easter Sunday tragedy, and a broad primary deficit is expected in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, Jafferjee cautioned. 

“Civil wars, insurgencies, populist election promises are some of the reasons for fiscal deficits to emerge. However, Sri Lanka’s high Primary deficit is due to low revenue in comparison to excessive spending. Twenty years ago, revenue formed 20% of GDP, which has been reduced to 13% currently. Relative to the rate of expansion of the economy, revenue did not keep up,” he noted.

He said, “Except for Bangladesh, all other countries in the region have higher revenue percentages to GDP than Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, except for India, regional countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia all have had lower fiscal deficits than us according to 2018 data.” 

Jafferjee suggests fiscal consolidation as a solution to improve the government’s fiscal position and reduce debt to GDP. He suggested however that the government should implement this in a structured manner over a period of time. Size, pace, duration and the composition of fiscal adjustment should be done systematically as failure to do so could lead to economic disaster or political instability, explains Jafferjee.  

“In a country such as ours asking people to pay higher taxes all of a sudden may lead to lost political capital. The degree of adjustment is highly dependent on economic and political circumstances. In the short term, fiscal consolidation may lead to lower GDP growth. 

In periods like pandemic situations, higher fiscal consolidation could be disastrous. It would reduce aggregate demand, which in turn can lead to low tax revenue. “

Jafferjee further notes that the least distortionary tax measure could be a wealth tax, which Sri Lanka doesn’t currently possess. He noted that over the past decade our credit growth was higher than the money supply, and has also significantly outpaced nominal GDP growth, irrespective of whether it was a loose or contractionary economic policy. 

“Credit drives the economy, fund’s investments and the economy. Credit growth hasn’t boosted economic growth or nominal GDP. This could be due to the investment in real estate, leading to a spike in land prices.”

The Chairman noted that the expansion of credit was evident for over a decade across multiple sectors including loans and leases, which could have been used to buy real estate. He claimed that there were no taxes on land, despite Sri Lanka’s direct taxes being low. “Indirect taxation accounts for 75% of total tax revenue, which is highly regressive, meaning tax is applied uniformly, imposing a higher burden on low-income earners than high-income earners.

As per Central Bank data, real estate prices in the Colombo District have increased over 170% in the last ten years and 95% in the last five. It’s time that policymakers think of collecting property taxes excluding lower value ones,” noted Jafferjee.  

NEWS RELEASE: Eminent economists urge decisive action to prevent emerging debt crisis

NEWS RELEASE

Originally appeared in the Daily FT, Ceylon Today, Lanka Business Online and The Morning

The Advocata Institute DeepDive Series on "How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?"

A panel of eminent economists urged that the Government take credible and decisive action to prevent a painful debt crisis in Sri Lanka. Although immediate debt payments can be met, to build credibility, a medium-term plan is required. This was also emphasised by Dr Nishan De Mel, Executive Director of Verite Research, who made the point that "We think that Sri Lanka does have flexibility, but the price of flexibility is credibility. If you cannot establish credibility, the flexibility erodes very quickly."

 The rating agency Moody's downgraded Sri Lanka's rating to Caa1 from B2 signaling issues with the country's debt sustainability. This year Sri Lanka's foreign debt service forecast is USD 4208.6 million. The central government debt to GDP ratio at present stands at about 86.8% with some estimates expecting the figure to increase.  

Prof Ricardo Hausmann from Harvard University said the more important measure is to look at the interest burden to tax revenue as opposed to the commonly cited debt to GDP ratio. "I think it's unfortunate that people talk about debt to GDP ratio, instead they should be talking about interest burden to tax revenue ratio. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 230%, and it's all contracted at zero interest rate. 230% at zero interest rate, you have to raise zero taxes to pay for that. 86% debt at 7% interest rate, you're talking about almost 6% of GDP in interest burden compared to Japan that has to pay zero" Sri Lanka has one of the worst interest burdens to tax revenue measures in the world according to Professor Hausmann. 

Prof Mick Moore, who has done work on Sri Lankan taxation systems explained that the situation has worsened due to a revenue problem and urged the need for a collective realisation of the necessity of higher taxation to meet debt servicing requirements. He mentioned that "If there is going to be a social contract drawn, built up, it's going to have to be a social contract around the crisis. If we do not do something about tax-raising, like Prof Hausmann said, the big bad wolf [of the debt crisis] is going to come."

These views were expressed at the event "Deep Dive", organised by the Advocata Institute that aims to bring focus on Sri Lanka's biggest policy challenges. The event was moderated by Dr Roshan Perera, Former Director Risk Management Department of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, and Aneetha Warusavitarana, Research Manager, Advocata Institute. As a precursor to the event, Advocata released a primer on debt sustainability with the aim of helping Sri Lankans understand the topic.  

The recording of the discussion can be found at https://www.advocata.org/ to get a comprehensive understanding of debt sustainability and how it affects Sri Lanka's economy and livelihoods of all Sri Lankans.

Advocata is an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We conduct research, provide commentary and hold events to promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka. Visit advocata.org for more information.    

Advocata spokespersons are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 077 621 6788

CONTACT:

Yasodhara Kariyawasam

Communications Manager, Advocata Institute

Email: yasodhara@advocata.org