Year on Year increase in food prices of 2%

Originally appeared in the Daily Mirror, Daily FT, The Morning

Advocata’s Bath Curry Indicator (BCI) which is a price-index that tracks the monthly changes in the retail price of a basket of commonly consumed food items recorded a year-on-year increase of roughly 2% between September 2022 and September 2023 and a month-on-month fall of 1.6% in between August and September 2023. Additionally, the BCI also tracks the price of the same basket of food items as they retail at local supermarkets, which shows an annual decline of roughly 16% of the BCI’s basket of items between September 2022 to 2023, and month-on-month fall of 3.2% between August and September 2023.

The graph below visualizes the fluctuations in the BCI and BCI-Supermarket indices over the last 3 years.

According to the BCI, the items that contributed the most to prices falling between August 2023 to September 2023 were tomatoes (12%), pumpkin (10%) and brinjals (8%). Alternatively the prices of green chillies (7%) and beans (4%) increased during this period. The Advocata BCI tracks the weekly retail prices in the Colombo market of the most commonly consumed food ingredients that might be used in a typical bath curry meal. The prices are collected from the “Weekly Indicators” that the Central Bank publishes. 

The BCI Indicator can be accessed at www.bci.advocata.org

Media coverage on the launch of Advocata's Bath Curry Indicator

Daily Mirror: Sri Lanka gets localised food price tracker - ‘Bath Curry Indicator’

Sri Lanka yesterday saw the launch of its own localised food tracker ‘Bath Curry Indicator’ (BCI), a spin on the popular ‘Big Mac Index’ conceptualised by The Economist in 1986. 

The BCI, designed by Colombo-based free market think-tank Advocata Institute, is aimed at tracking the retail prices of the goods that could be included in a packet of rice and curry. 

The indicator, that is specific to Colombo at present, tracks on a weekly basis the prices of common food items that go into rice packets and provides an insight on the rate of change of the prices over time. 

The Central Bank’s weekly economic indicators publication is used to feed the indicator. The retail prices used are from the Pettah Market, except where data is unavailable, in which case data from the Narahenpita Economic Centre are taken into account.

The items on the BCI are selected from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016.  

Pointing out that the food prices are a fairly volatile indicator, Advocata stated the prices are not only dependent on the seasonal and weather patterns but are also affected by policies.

While the BCI is not a measure of inflation, it indicates the manner in which the cost of a specific basket of goods has moved over a short period, thus providing an insight on the impacts of certain policies, as they come into effect.

Furthermore, Advocata noted that although the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) is a comprehensive method of calculating inflation and is a useful indicator to help assess the country’s macroeconomic conditions, there are some shortcomings in the process. 

The index does not necessarily measure consumer reactions and preferences that change relative to price changes, the think tank noted. 

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News 1st: Prime Time Sinhala News 10 PM | (07-04-2021) රාත්‍රී 10.00 ප්‍රධාන ප්‍රවෘත්ති

News 1st: Prime Time English News - 9 PM | (07-04-2021)

NEWS RELEASE: Advocata Institute launches a novel policy tool to track everyday food price changes

NEWS RELEASE

Originally appeared in the Ada Derana Biz, Daily FT, The Morning, The Businessnews.lk, Daily Mirror, Ada Derana, Lanka Business Online, Economy Next

Advocata’s latest policy product tracks the average retail prices of a basket of goods and provides an indication of how much prices have changed over time.  With the use of such tools, anyone including policymakers and politicians alike has access to track price fluctuations. This could enable anyone to see if policies have a direct or indirect effect on food. Which is an essential item and can have a direct impact on the food consumed by households. The indicator launch was held at the Tulip Hall of the BMICH on the 7th of April 2021 and was live-streamed on Advocata’s Facebook and YouTube. 

The newly launched Bath Curry Indicator tries to provide such a policy direction while highlighting the importance of the affordability of food. Around 35% of household expenditure is on food and drink. Therefore the Indicator is a tool to see how policies coming into effect directly or indirectly impact food prices.  Naqiya Shiraz, a research executive at the Advocata Institute spoke about the rationale behind the Bath Curry Indicator by commenting that the BCI “represents any average Sri Lanka household. The items are Samba rice, beans, pumpkin, tomatoes, brinjals, coconut, green chillies and fish. Therefore it is important to understand the decisions that impact the prices of goods.

According to Economist Deshal De Mel, “The idea behind the BCI is that in Sri Lanka the cost of living is a concern. The inflation in Sri Lanka has been of single-digit levels for the last two years but it is still a concern for the public.  So Advocata’s Bath Curry Indicator is similar to the ‘Big Mac Index’ by The Economist. It is simplistic and real.”  Rehana Thowfeek Zain (Economic Researcher and Blogger) was of a similar opinion when she commented that such indicators can be used to highlight the impact of policies that affect people’s food consumption.  According to her, the BCI will “capture a relatable way to cover the cost of living and also investigate the merit behind politicians when they use the cost of living as a hook in their election manifesto”   She further commented that  “53% of Sri Lanka population can’t afford a healthy diet, That’s a huge number. We are food secure but are we nutrition secure? Kids don’t develop as they should. Trade policies should focus on the overall objective and cater to the health of Sri Lanka’s population.” Thereby highlighting the socioeconomic impact of rising food prices on the general public. 

The panelists for the discussion were Deshal De Mel (Economist), Rehana Thowfeek Zain (Economic Researcher and Blogger) and Naqiya Shiraz (Researcher). The discussion was moderated by Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute). 

The BCI Indicator can be accessed at www.bci.advocata.org.

Advocata is an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We conduct research, provide commentary and hold events to promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka. Visit advocata.org for more information.    

Advocata spokespersons are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 077 621 6788

CONTACT:

Yasodhara Kariyawasam

Communications Manager, Advocata Institute

Email: yasodhara@advocata.org