Debt Sustainability

Media Coverage on #ReformNow Conference: Let's Reset Sri Lanka

Let us focus on global changes immediately - President

We can’t use the old economic model further:

We can no longer use the old economic model and we must pay attention to global changes by thinking innovatively, said President Ranil Wickremesinghe yesterday. He was delivering the keynote address at the professional forum to launch the Advocata Institute’s research report on Sri Lanka’s economic reforms held at the Bandaranaike International Conference Hall in Colombo yesterday (05).

The conference organised by the Advocata Institute under the theme “LET’S RESET SRI LANKA” is held on August 5 and 6 at the Lotus Hall of the Bandaranaike International Conference Hall.

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President reiterates, difficult times ahead

President Ranil Wickremesinghe says Sri Lanka has '6 difficult months ahead' as the island nation attempts to stabilize the economy through agreements with the IMF.

Speaking at a forum organized by the Advocata Institute in Colombo today (05), President Wickremesinghe said that the 'way out' for the country is through the agreements reached with the IMF.

"Although people talk of alternative measures, they have not worked out," the President said, emphasizing that first and foremost, Sri Lanka has to enter into the standby agreement, with the staff level agreement with IMF.

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Sri Lanka President hints on possible wealth tax for economic, social stability

Amid widening gap between the rich and the poor in Sri Lanka, the island nation will have to go for higher taxation including on wealth, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said on Friday while delivering a keynote speech at an economic forum.

The crisis-hit country is struggling with lower state revenue and higher government expenditure with 86 cents of each rupee of tax revenue spent on state sector wages and pensions.

Read the full article here

Sri Lanka President hints on possible wealth tax for economic, social stability

Amid widening gap between the rich and the poor in Sri Lanka, the island nation will have to go for higher taxation including on wealth, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said on Friday while delivering a keynote speech at an economic forum.

The crisis-hit country is struggling with lower state revenue and higher government expenditure with 86 cents of each rupee of tax revenue spent on state sector wages and pensions.

Read the full article here

SL must focus on higher revenue mobilisation to overcome crisis

Sri Lanka still has scope to overcome the macroeconomic instability if the Government could focus on revenue mobilisation through inclusive tax reforms based on scientific analysis, Advocata Institute Senior Research Fellow Dr. Roshan Perera opined.

Speaking at the ‘Let’s reset Sri Lanka’ forum organised by the Advocata Institute recently, she underscored that the root cause of the existing macroeconomic instability was due to lack of fiscal discipline.

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The old economic model is no longer viable, IMF proposals must be implemented - President

President Ranil Wickremesinghe says the old economic model can no longer be implemented adding that innovative thinking is required while paying attention to global changes.

Delivering the guest speech at a conference today (05) Mr. Wickramasinghe said proposals of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) must be implemented to recover from the economic crisis the country is facing, regardless of whether they are good or bad, and regardless of who likes them or not.

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‘National carrier matters, but profitability matters more’

Delaying the privatisation of SriLankan Airlines will not help, however the steps towards privatisation of the national carrier should be taken in consultation with international experts who understand the aviation industry, Thilan Wijesinghe, Chairman and CEO of TWCorp (Pvt) Ltd., said at ‘Let’s Reset Sri Lanka –Reform Now’ conference hosted by Advocate Institute, recently.Thilan who is knowledgeable about many aspects of SriLankan Airlines’ operational outlook said so responding to a query on how debt-laden SriLankan Airlines can attract potential buyers to push a privatisation process forward.

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IMF, a starting point in path to recovery - President

Advocata Institute hosted its economic reform conference, #ReformNow last week. The two day event discussed the economic reforms needed to recover from the current crisis and promote growth.

The event brought together policymakers, l internationally recognised thought-leaders, the business community, civil society and citizens of Sri Lanka to facilitate this much needed discussion. The sessions focused on themes such as reforming taxation, state-owned enterprises, social safety nets , trade policy and land policy.

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‘Only 15 out of 40 employment laws in regular use’

Sri Lanka has over 40 laws that relate to employment, of which only about 15 are in regular use.

Most are dated before independence or shortly thereafter and many are outdated, Shyamali Ranarajah- Attorney at law (Pictured) said.

Sri Lanka’s labour reforms must be led by the highest level of government whilst stakeholders must have a seat at the discussions for labour reforms.

Moreover, Ranarajah said dispute resolution mechanisms must be made efficient, productive and must not become a barrier or a hindrance to growth and employment creation, she opined.

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South Asia can have integration in dancing & cooking, but not trade, quips Prez RW

Strengthening trade relations with the world is essential for countries to fulfil their economic aspirations, however, efforts will have to be made by individual countries to strengthen ties as within the South Asian region and trade integration will not happen, said President Ranil Wickremesinghe. “There will have to be bilateral agreements with whoever we want. There is too much politics involved for there to be a regional trade agreement in South Asia,” the President told a fully-packed audience at the ‘Reform Now’ conference hosted by Colombo-based economic thinktank Advocata Institute.

“So we can keep that aside. We can have integration in dancing, we can have integration in cooking. but certainly, we are not going to have integration as far as the economy is concerned,” Wickremesinghe quipped.

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CSE seen as being controlled by a few people; ‘not a proper platform to list SOEs’

The CSE is not a proper platform to list state owned enterprises because it’s being controlled and dominated by a few people or small groups of them. It cannot be a match for leading stock markets like the London Stock Market because it doesn’t reflect a broader perspective, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said.

“Either you must change or bring into being a new organization to broad base the stakeholder participation level without allowing a small set of people to control it, Wickremesinghe told an economic forum which was organized by the Advocata Institute and held at the BMICH yesterday.

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‘Negotiations with China needed as well to evolve sustainable debt restructuring proposal’

Sri Lanka’s debt advisors are currently looking at local debt, as a restructuring plan to negotiate with our creditors is being developed as part of efforts to make debt sustainable in order to obtain support from the IMF. The latter has specifically told us to bring a sustainable debt restructuring proposal through negotiations with China as well, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said.

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Low revenue growth, main reason for primary deficit – Advocata Chairman

Covered by Ceylon Today

“Post-independence Sri Lanka has continuously had a fiscal deficit, while it had a Primary Balance surplus only in 1954, 1955, 2017 and 2018,” stated Advocata Chairman Murtaza Jafferjee while speaking on Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability. 

However, the primary balance situation reversed in 2019 due to the Easter Sunday tragedy, and a broad primary deficit is expected in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, Jafferjee cautioned. 

“Civil wars, insurgencies, populist election promises are some of the reasons for fiscal deficits to emerge. However, Sri Lanka’s high Primary deficit is due to low revenue in comparison to excessive spending. Twenty years ago, revenue formed 20% of GDP, which has been reduced to 13% currently. Relative to the rate of expansion of the economy, revenue did not keep up,” he noted.

He said, “Except for Bangladesh, all other countries in the region have higher revenue percentages to GDP than Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, except for India, regional countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia all have had lower fiscal deficits than us according to 2018 data.” 

Jafferjee suggests fiscal consolidation as a solution to improve the government’s fiscal position and reduce debt to GDP. He suggested however that the government should implement this in a structured manner over a period of time. Size, pace, duration and the composition of fiscal adjustment should be done systematically as failure to do so could lead to economic disaster or political instability, explains Jafferjee.  

“In a country such as ours asking people to pay higher taxes all of a sudden may lead to lost political capital. The degree of adjustment is highly dependent on economic and political circumstances. In the short term, fiscal consolidation may lead to lower GDP growth. 

In periods like pandemic situations, higher fiscal consolidation could be disastrous. It would reduce aggregate demand, which in turn can lead to low tax revenue. “

Jafferjee further notes that the least distortionary tax measure could be a wealth tax, which Sri Lanka doesn’t currently possess. He noted that over the past decade our credit growth was higher than the money supply, and has also significantly outpaced nominal GDP growth, irrespective of whether it was a loose or contractionary economic policy. 

“Credit drives the economy, fund’s investments and the economy. Credit growth hasn’t boosted economic growth or nominal GDP. This could be due to the investment in real estate, leading to a spike in land prices.”

The Chairman noted that the expansion of credit was evident for over a decade across multiple sectors including loans and leases, which could have been used to buy real estate. He claimed that there were no taxes on land, despite Sri Lanka’s direct taxes being low. “Indirect taxation accounts for 75% of total tax revenue, which is highly regressive, meaning tax is applied uniformly, imposing a higher burden on low-income earners than high-income earners.

As per Central Bank data, real estate prices in the Colombo District have increased over 170% in the last ten years and 95% in the last five. It’s time that policymakers think of collecting property taxes excluding lower value ones,” noted Jafferjee.  

NEWS RELEASE: Eminent economists urge decisive action to prevent emerging debt crisis

NEWS RELEASE

Originally appeared in the Daily FT, Ceylon Today, Lanka Business Online and The Morning

The Advocata Institute DeepDive Series on "How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?"

A panel of eminent economists urged that the Government take credible and decisive action to prevent a painful debt crisis in Sri Lanka. Although immediate debt payments can be met, to build credibility, a medium-term plan is required. This was also emphasised by Dr Nishan De Mel, Executive Director of Verite Research, who made the point that "We think that Sri Lanka does have flexibility, but the price of flexibility is credibility. If you cannot establish credibility, the flexibility erodes very quickly."

 The rating agency Moody's downgraded Sri Lanka's rating to Caa1 from B2 signaling issues with the country's debt sustainability. This year Sri Lanka's foreign debt service forecast is USD 4208.6 million. The central government debt to GDP ratio at present stands at about 86.8% with some estimates expecting the figure to increase.  

Prof Ricardo Hausmann from Harvard University said the more important measure is to look at the interest burden to tax revenue as opposed to the commonly cited debt to GDP ratio. "I think it's unfortunate that people talk about debt to GDP ratio, instead they should be talking about interest burden to tax revenue ratio. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 230%, and it's all contracted at zero interest rate. 230% at zero interest rate, you have to raise zero taxes to pay for that. 86% debt at 7% interest rate, you're talking about almost 6% of GDP in interest burden compared to Japan that has to pay zero" Sri Lanka has one of the worst interest burdens to tax revenue measures in the world according to Professor Hausmann. 

Prof Mick Moore, who has done work on Sri Lankan taxation systems explained that the situation has worsened due to a revenue problem and urged the need for a collective realisation of the necessity of higher taxation to meet debt servicing requirements. He mentioned that "If there is going to be a social contract drawn, built up, it's going to have to be a social contract around the crisis. If we do not do something about tax-raising, like Prof Hausmann said, the big bad wolf [of the debt crisis] is going to come."

These views were expressed at the event "Deep Dive", organised by the Advocata Institute that aims to bring focus on Sri Lanka's biggest policy challenges. The event was moderated by Dr Roshan Perera, Former Director Risk Management Department of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, and Aneetha Warusavitarana, Research Manager, Advocata Institute. As a precursor to the event, Advocata released a primer on debt sustainability with the aim of helping Sri Lankans understand the topic.  

The recording of the discussion can be found at https://www.advocata.org/ to get a comprehensive understanding of debt sustainability and how it affects Sri Lanka's economy and livelihoods of all Sri Lankans.

Advocata is an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We conduct research, provide commentary and hold events to promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka. Visit advocata.org for more information.    

Advocata spokespersons are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 077 621 6788

CONTACT:

Yasodhara Kariyawasam

Communications Manager, Advocata Institute

Email: yasodhara@advocata.org


Online Discussion: How Can We Improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?

ONLINE DISCUSSION by Advocata Institute featuring Prof. Ricardo Hausmann (Director Growth Lab, Harvard University's Center for International Development), Prof. Mick Moore (Political Economist, Founding CEO & Senior Fellow, International Centre for Tax and Development, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies), Dr. Nishan De Mel, (Economist, Executive Director, Verité Research). The Panel was moderated by Dr.Roshan Perera (Economist, Former Director Risk Management Department of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and co-moderated by Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute).

To watch Murtaza Jaffarjee’s Three-part Primers on Debt Sustainability, Fiscal Performance and Economic Growth.

To watch the video on Youtube

Deep Dive EP 1. 3 : How Can We Improve Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka | A Primer on Economic Growth

The Advocata Institute launched its latest public policy discussion series 'DeepDive'. This series commenced with several discussions on the topic "How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?".

The discussion series kickstarted with three-part primers by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute.

Print media partner - Daily FT

This is the final part of a three-part primer.

Click here to access the presentation by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee

To watch the Primer on Debt Sustainability

To watch the Primer on Fiscal Performance

Watch this video on Youtube 





Deep Dive EP 1. 2 : How Can We Improve Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka | A Primer on Fiscal Performance

The Advocata Institute launches its latest public policy discussion series ‘DeepDive’. This series commences with several discussions on the topic “How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?”.

The discussion series kickstarted with three-part primers by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute.

This is the second part of a three-part primer.

Print media partner - Daily FT

Click here to access the presentation by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee

To watch the Primer on Debt Sustainability

To access the Primer on Economic Growth

Watch this video on Youtube 





Deep Dive EP 1. 1 : How Can We Improve Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka | A Primer on Debt in Sri Lanka

The Advocata Institute launches its latest public policy discussion series ‘DeepDive’. This series commences with several discussions on the topic “How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?”.

The discussion series kickstarts with a primer on debt sustainability, presented by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute. This is the first part of a three-part primer, focusing on Sri Lanka's debt sustainability.

Print media partner - Daily FT

To access the presentation by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee

To access the Updated presentation on Debt Sustainability

To access the second Primer on Fiscal Performance

To access the third Primer on Economic Growth

Watch this video on Youtube 





NEWS RELEASE: The Advocata Institute Event Series on “How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?”

NEWS RELEASE

Originally appeared in the Daily News and Daily Mirror

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka—  The Advocata Institute launches its latest public policy discussion series ‘DeepDive’. The series will commence with several discussions on the topic  “How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?”. The discussion series will kickstart with a lecture on the same topic, presented by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute. 

This lecture will be released in the lead up to the first discussion, which will feature an eminent panel consisting of Prof. Ricardo Hausmann  (Director Growth Lab, Harvard University's Center for International Development), Prof. Mick Moore (Political Economist | Founding CEO & Senior Fellow, International Centre for Tax and Development| Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies), Dr. Nishan De Mel, (Economist | Executive Director, Verité Research). The Panel would be Moderated by Dr.Roshan Perera (Economist | Former Director Risk Management Department of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and  Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute). The event would be live-streamed on the Advocata Institute Facebook on the 30th of September at  3.45 PM. 

The Advocata Institute remains committed to finding policy solutions to key challenges holding back Sri Lanka’s road to development. Debt sustainability remains a key structural issue affecting Sri Lanka’s Economy. With the emergence of the COVID 19 Pandemic, economies have experienced worsening debt positions.  Sri Lanka’s position has become precarious, with total repayments  (of capital and interest for 2020) amounting to an estimated $ 4.2 billion according to the Ministry of Finance Annual Report. The discussion series would discuss in detail policies and strategies that would enable Sri Lanka to meet all its current and future payment obligations without exceptional financial assistance supported by an analysis of our current position. 

The Advocata Institute cordially invites members of the public to tune into the Live streamed event on Advocata Institute Facebook Page. Questions will be taken online through SLIDO.com Code:#DEEPDIVE. The lecture on "How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?" would be available on https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB9AgjGYUTJhpdjAid4Y2Lg/featured, to get a comprehensive understanding of debt sustainability and how it affects Sri Lanka’s economy and livelihoods of all Sri Lankan’s. To keep yourself updated register at https://forms.gle/hUSNVK7QCZdBCyMJ6

Advocata is an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We conduct research, provide commentary and hold events to promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka. Visit advocata.org for more information.

Advocata spokespersons are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 077 621 6788

CONTACT:

Yasodara Kariyawasam,

Communications Manager, Advocata Institute

Email: yasodhara@advocata.org