Why are we poor?

By Ravi Ratnasabapathy

Originally appeared on the Daily FT

Economists tell us that Sri Lanka’s economy has stabilised but what does this mean if so many are struggling?

To economists stability means that the imbalances in the economy have been resolved. The symptoms of the imbalances appear as rising prices, shortages of foreign exchange and goods. These have indeed disappeared but what does it mean to ordinary people? It only means that the rate at which people were being impoverished has slowed. We were crashing down the mountainside but the fall has been broken, if only temporarily. This is no mean achievement but obviously people expect much better.

People enjoyed a particular standard of living in 2020 but three short years later find themselves pauperised and cannot fathom why. What caused this steep decline in living standards? Corruption, poor governance and weak public finances are blamed but these were prevalent for decades. Why did the effects of these pass unnoticed for so long and how did they suddenly manifest?

The fact is that while these are connected to the problem they are not the immediate causes. To understand the causes of poverty today we must understand what changed between 2020 and 2023.

Two distinct causes of poverty today

There are two distinct causes but for the sake of clarity they must be dealt with separately.

Between December 2019 and August 20221 the Central Bank printed huge volumes of money – net Central Bank credit to Government grew 10-fold; from 363 billion to 3,162 billion. The end result of the increase in the supply of money is the fall in its value. This is reflected in rising prices and depreciation of the rupee in the foreign exchange market.

The Government at the time tried to mask the symptoms of the problem by imposing price controls; the exchange rate for the rupee was fixed at Rs. 200 along with the prices of many other goods. The result was scarcities – of foreign exchange and of goods which were visible in the long queues and in power cuts. As the printing continued, the Government imposed ever tighter import and price controls until eventually economic activity ground to a near halt. People were either standing in queues or sitting in the dark. Work in factories and offices stopped because of the unavailability of materials, the inability to transport staff or products and the lack of power.

To resolve this problem the only option was to allow interest rates to rise to slow the credit growth that was fuelling excess demand. A partial devaluation was initially attempted without a significant rate increase but this failed and forex shortages persisted. The corner was turned only when rates were hiked significantly and a peg re-established at 360.

As the rupee fell all prices rose. Price controls had to be removed, most importantly on energy – fuel, electricity and cooking gas to reflect the diminished value of the currency. This explains the sudden increase in prices of both goods and services.

Unfortunately while prices rose people’s incomes and savings did not. People’s living standards are measured not by their income but by what that income can procure. When the value of money falls living standards fall.

Effects of currency debasement are permanent

How is this to be reversed? The tragedy is that the effects of currency debasement are permanent. Complete reversal requires that stock money to shrink back to the level it was in 2019 – this would lead to a massive increase in interest rates; much higher than present. The consequences of this would be widespread business collapse and an economic contraction that would impose even more suffering.

What should be done? The debasement of the currency can only happen through the Central Bank. It must be prevented by rules from ever doing so again.

People mistakenly think that the Central Bank should try to keep interest rates low but the only way in which this can be done is (a) if the Government reduces its volume of borrowing, the sheer size of which puts significant upward pressure on rates or (b) if the Central Bank keeps increasing the supply money (money printing) which lowers rates. It is difficult to reduce Government spending in the short term, therefore the borrowing will have to continue. This means the only avenue to lower interest rates is money printing which ultimately impoverishes all.

The Central Bank should not engage in activist monetary policy to stimulate the economy. It must not finance the Government’s budget deficit and in its role as provider of liquidity to the banking sector it must not become a banking intermediary. Liquidity to the interbank market needs to be purely temporary, based on market rates with an added premium to prevent moral hazard. Central Bank intermediation is in some way a substitute for interbank markets and therefore the relative level of costs between the two is crucial.

If the value of the rupee holds it will allow people to try and restore what has been lost. People need to start all over again and through their own efforts try to rebuild their lives.

Second reason for increase in poverty – increase in taxes

The second reason for the increase in poverty is the increase in taxes. People who have already suffered terribly because of currency debasement now face another blow when the Government appropriates even more of their income and raises the prices of goods through sales based taxes. The Government is fixing the problems in its own finances but doing so by passing the buck on to the people.

In the short-term some increases in taxes were unavoidable because of the rigidity in Government spending – the bulk of which is salaries, pensions and interest. These must be reduced but this takes time. However there is no excuse for making no attempt to cut costs. For example, the high prices of electricity and fuel include the extra costs caused by corruption in fuel purchases, inflated power purchase costs, excess payroll and inefficiency.

Corruption and waste become relevant to the problem of impoverishment when their costs are transferred to citizens through increased taxes, higher prices and poorer quality of services provided by the Government. The use of debt and more moderate levels of money printing allowed the Government to conceal the real burden of its spending from people for decades.

The public blames the general increases in prices that result from money printing on “profiteering” by traders. Increases in debt have no immediate impact, it is only when it has to be repaid are the consequences felt at which point the lenders are blamed.

Citizens who voted repeatedly for corrupt populists have awoken from slumber as the costs of past profligacy have finally become apparent.

Ability of the Government to disguise the real burden of its activities

Because of the ability of the Government to disguise the real burden of its activities, in the context of corruption citizens need to have a singular focus on all economic activities of the Government. It is Government spending rather than taxation that ultimately determines the total burden of Government activity on the private sector. The critical question citizens must ask is how far does Government activity and spending actually improve the lives of citizens?

The IMF program is trying to reduce the Government’s deficit and debt – but the approach they have taken is to simply increase taxes rather than doing so concurrently with cutting expenditure. There seems to be unquestioned acceptance of the level of public spending, regardless of its quality or nature.

Tax morale – citizens’ willingness to pay taxes – depends on the trust they have in the Government and the quality of services they receive. In the modern world a state must earn the right to collect tax. To do so it must treat its citizens fairly. It must be responsive and seen to be addressing needs and improving services. The lack of this was evident in the protests of 2022.

The Sri Lankan State fails in the provision of the most fundamental of public goods – those that cannot be provided by private markets: the rule of law and a functioning system of justice. While some useful services are provided in health and education, quality is poor. The spending on private tuition, private schools and private healthcare is a testament to this. Corruption is rampant. For example, COPE reports show the State Pharmaceuticals Corporation has repeatedly procured substandard drugs2, dud software3 and failed to follow strictures imposed by COPE4.

Promises of jobs are a vote-winner. Elections have been won, jobs have been created but only now have the public been presented with the bill. A large proportion of taxes are in effect sustaining the patronage system that enables the election of corrupt politicians.

Voters must realise that there are no easy or painless solutions. After a crisis such as this, countries may experience ‘a lost decade’ before output reaches its pre-crisis level. Populists who promise quick solutions without proper diagnosis or are unable to locate the sources of the problem could easily tip the country back into crisis

Identify the villains in this tragedy

People need to identify clearly the villains in this tragedy; the Central Bank and mis-spending by the Government. Public outrage is justified but unless the sources of the problem; the Central Bank and Government spending are correctly identified, they may well be duped again.

That the rate of impoverishment has slowed will not satisfy the public but do they realise the fragility of this meagre achievement? Politicians are eager to promise quick and painless solutions. The electorate can expect to be subjected to “death by slogan” over the election cycle. A fairer society. End corruption. A brighter future.

Desperate people may clutch at any alternative assuming that things cannot get any worse but they are gravely mistaken. Politicians who do not grasp the problem may trigger another spiral. Criticism of the current approach is needed but people should look for politicians who offer realistic alternatives. How should voters evaluate alternatives?

To avoid another crisis it is vital to maintain monetary stability and fiscal prudence. Serious politicians must commit to both. Ambitious manifestos must be seen to translate into pragmatic programs within the fiscal constraint. The British tradition of access talks: pre-election talks between opposition politicians and civil servants helps prepare the opposition for Government. They need to decide on policy priorities and the mechanics of delivery. Those who have done their homework will demonstrate familiarity with the public finances5.

Some talk of billions in stolen assets and imply that all it takes is to recover this and all will be well. Have they examined the complexity of the legal proceedings in the recovery of stolen assets? The international record of successful of stolen asset recovery is poor. The Stolen Asset Recovery (StAR) Initiative – a partnership between the World Bank and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has over 15 years recovered a total of around $ 1.9 billion6. The most successful has been the Philippines which recovered more than $ 1 billion over 21 years. This is a tidy sum but do those who tout this as a solution understand the gargantuan size of the Government expenditure?

Public salaries and wages cost Rs. 956.2 billion in 20227. For year of 365 days that works out to Rs. 2.62 billion per day. Subsidies cost another 1,020 billion or Rs. 2.23 billion per day. Including interest total recurrent expenditure runs at Rs. 9.64 billion a day.

The sum total recovered under the StAR over 15 years would only cover the public sector salaries for a little over seven months; total recurrent expenditure for only two. In any case can a realistic budget be built on such an uncertain stream of revenues? Can the rich pay for this all? How many billionaires and millionaires does the Government need to find to sustain spending at a rate of Rs. 9.6 billion per day?

Government spending

Government spending can create the opportunities for corruption; affecting not just the level of public expenditure, but also its composition, favouring projects that allow the collection bribes.

If the misspending in the public sector were reduced greatly then the tax burden could be reduced. Salaries and pensions for the 1.5 million employees of public sector and the 672,0008 pensioners made up 36% of recurrent spending in 2022 (interest took up 44%). This is an ongoing expense that needs to be paid. Are the citizens receiving valuable public services in return?

In 2016 there were 230,525 teachers and around 62,000 in the health service. The problem is with the million others in employment. The number in public employment stood at 812,472 in 19949 but is now estimated at 1.5 m10. Was there a proportionate increase in the quality of services that people received?

Voters must realise that there are no easy or painless solutions. After a crisis such as this, countries may experience ‘a lost decade’ before output reaches its pre-crisis level. Populists who promise quick solutions without proper diagnosis or are unable to locate the sources of the problem could easily tip the country back into crisis.

Footnotes:

1 Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts, First Quarter 2023, p34 https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/statistics/mecpac/Chart_Pack_Q1_2023_e1.pdf

2 See reports: https://www.advocata.org/commentary-archives/2019/11/5/coping-with-latest-cope-report; https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/Fraud-corruption-rampant-at-SPC-GMOF/108-276243;

3 https://readme.lk/spc-has-paid-lkr-644-million-for-software-that-doesnt-work/

4 https://www.news.lk/news/political-current-affairs/item/26077-govt-agencies-failure-to-act-on-cope-recommendations

5 The Institute for Government, a think tank offers a useful guide: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-01/preparing-for-government.pdf

6 https://star.worldbank.org/blog/fifteen-years-star

7 Ministry of Finance Annual Report 2022, p109, https://www.treasury.gov.lk/api/file/39a16e61-7659-476b-8f18-d969c7a69733

8 https://www.parliament.lk/uploads/documents/paperspresented/1662013778004147.pdf

9 “Census Of The Public And Semi-Government Sector Employment 1994”. 1994. Statistics.Gov.Lk. http://www.

statistics.gov.lk/PublicEmployment/StaticalInformation/census_reports/CensusOfPublicAndSemiGovernmentSectorEmployment-1994FinalReport.

10 https://economynext.com/crisis-hit-sri-lanka-finally-starts-to-deal-with-bloated-public-sector-96277/

(The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not reflect the views of organisations he is affiliated to.)

Ending the annual budget auction

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

Budget 2022 must be the first step to getting the fundamentals right

As Lee Kuan Yew famously said: “Sri Lankan elections are an auction of non existing resources”. Over the years, our annual budget speech and promises have not been different. A long wish list of proposals skewed towards expenditure is read by the Minister of Finance. In between, some policy decisions and revenue proposals are pronounced 

A few weeks after a massive media focus, the budget is forgotten and everyone goes into deep slumber. This again gets the attention of next year’s budget. The same cycle follows, as some senior ministers fall asleep during the budget speech and wake up again for the traditional tea party generously sponsored by taxpayers. 

According to the analysis by Verite Research on PublicFinance.lk, of 34 proposals from 2020 (Verite has analyzed 34 selected proposals in the absence of a budget speech in 2020), only 4% were fully completed. On 50% of the proposals, information is not disclosed even to track whether the projects are progressing. Even in the 2019 Budget, only about 32% of the budget proposals were fulfilled. 

Most  financial analysts and financial sector professionals provide comprehensive coverages on the budget speech along with insights. Generally, it’s a time when vehicle owners and potential buyers get stressed. It is also commonly known that liquor and cigarette prices increase, and some relief packages in the form of subsidies for people get announced during the budget speech. So far, the budget speech is kind of a festival where people and businesses look for relief. That shows the level of government intervention that exists in Sri Lanka. In an ideal system where the market economy works, decisions cannot be surprises nor ad hoc, enabling people to have time to adjust and the price determining the allocation of resources. 

Traditionally, parliamentarians who support the government say that: “It’s the best budget post independence,” and the opposition says: “It’s the worst budget post independence,” as the microphones get directed by the media for comments on the budget.  

The budget this time is crucial for Sri Lanka. As per the numbers reported by authorities and independent analysts, it is clear we are short of money for detailed expenditure proposals and for daily operations.

86% of our tax revenue goes for salaries and pensions of state workers, and more than 100% of our revenue goes for our debt servicing. 

So as Lee Kuan Yew commented on our elections, most of the budget promises are just mere statements. It’s just a feel good statement or the auction of non-existent resources.  

This time it’s different because we are already inside the eye of the storm. This storm is the worst economic crisis post independence. 

Credit rating agencies have downgraded us, limiting our access to international finances, and we have about $ 22 billion of debt servicing for the next five years to be paid with just less than $ 2.5 billion in our reserves, as of 5 November 2021.

As we highlighted in this column post Budget 2021, it missed the elephant in the room, ignoring the debt crisis and the Covid-19 healthcare crisis. Even most of the business tycoons in most industries did not have the courage to point out that the last budget lacked the policy mechanisms of addressing the brewing economic crisis. Instead, they only looked inwards and failed to look beyond their interest without realising that we are on the same ship. There is very little meaning in demarcating our own territory when the entire ship is sinking.  

So we have arrived at a new cycle with a more serious situation, along with a further credit rating downgrade and more disincentives for exporters. The recent new rules on converting export proceedings will impact exports negatively. First, the exporters are paid a rate of Rs. 203 for each US dollar (USD) they bring, while the market rate is about Rs. 235 per USD. On the other hand, for importers, a USD was sold at Rs. 203 when the market rate is Rs. 235. So, we have fueled more imports and discouraged exports on exchange rate. Secondly, imposing controls on converting export proceedings will make life difficult for exporters to do business. Already exporters suffer from USD shortages and supply chain issues. Current policies just double the weight on their shoulders. 

There were heavy social media criticisms on the response by the Finance Minister on a budget related question. A journalist asked: “What benefits do you expect to announce for the people?”, to which he responded: “We may have to take from the people”. The reality is that the poor people who spend a higher percentage of their income on food have been greatly impacted by the increasing food prices caused due to the global commodity bubble. This has been made worse by the implementation of the Modern Monetary Theory implemented by our policy makers. So, taking from the poor will be difficult. At present they are mainly taxed through indirect taxes. 

Accordingly, this year’s budget has to be the first step to getting the fundamentals right. If we start auctioning non existent resources, this budget would lead us towards the direction of a looming crisis, making the situation even worse. 

Since the budget is now out, we can do an evaluation and make a judgement on the direction of the economy. 

(This article was written before the budget speech) 

Sources:

• CBSL, Annual Reports

• https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/statistics/wei/WEI_20211105_e.pdf

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Why Sri Lanka is poor, according to Bill Gates

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

Bill Gates famously said: “My daughter won’t marry a poor man.” His definition of poor here is interesting. He explains that a person who wins $ 100 million is not wealthy: “He is simply a poor man with a lot of money. 90% of lottery winners eventually return to where they were before as they do not know how to recreate wealth.” “Wealth” is primarily the ability to create “wealth”, explained Bill Gates.

He further explained this with an example: “One day, a bank vigilante found a bag full of money, and delivered it to the bank manager. People called him an idiot, but in reality, this gentleman was just a rich man who had no money. A year later, the bank offered him a receptionist position, three years later he was in charge of clients and a decade later, he managed the regional branch of the bank. The bonuses of hundreds of employees he managed here were beyond the value he could have stolen.” Bill Gates concluded: “Wealth is a state of mind, my friend. That’s what I meant by ‘my daughter won’t marry a poor man’.”

Sri Lanka can learn from this story. A majority of Sri Lankans believe that the country is wealthy, given our resources. We have a sea of marine resources strategically located in the silk maritime route, natural harbours such as Trincomalee, a phosphate mine, and many more. However, as per Bill Gates’ definition, none of these resources create wealth. In economics, resources that cannot create and recreate wealth are no different to having no resources.

This is not endemic to Sri Lanka. Venezuela, which was the world’s fifth largest crude oil producer, is a poor and unstable country now. Afghanistan, which is also a very resourceful country in minerals and land, does not seem to have a very promising future. Nepal, which has the tallest mountains in the world with the potential to generate hydropower, often experiences blackouts. On the other hand, countries which do not have a rich history nor any resources – such as Singapore – found prosperity and wealth in a few generations. They simply knew the art of recreating wealth.

Sri Lanka has always prioritised sovereignty. However, we fail to comprehend that erosion of wealth is indeed erosion of sovereignty. Most of our scarce resources do not create any wealth, instead it consistently erodes existing wealth.

Many Sri Lankans and large scale businesses believe that the Government needs to provide them protection. This ideology has hindered our potential to keep up with global developments and has severely discouraged budding businesses and entrepreneurs. The businesses owned by the Government are managed by political appointees and government officials. They haven’t risked their money, nor do they know anything about business. As a result, they know very little about recreating wealth. There are no consequences to them if they were to lose large amounts of money.

The common denominator of the loss-making state owned enterprises is that they are allowed to manage a business without risking any money. Most trade union action also takes place in these very loss-making enterprises such as the Ceylon Electricity Board, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, and the Ceylon Transportation Board.

The state institutes that make profits also do not create any wealth. Like a man who steals money, they are just poor institutions with little to no profits. Most state institutes make profits either due to hampering competition or by monopolising the sector. For example, the two lottery boards are owned by the Government with no other lottery players in the market. Institutions like the Civil Aviation Authority are monopolies. The government milk supplier makes profits by hampering competition with higher effective tariff rates.

The role of the state should be to maintain safety nets for the poor. However, the state can’t even manage its core functions due to erosion of wealth. State owned airlines lose more money in eight months than the country’s annual budget for Samurdhi.

As per Bill Gates’ example, we are not creating wealth, but over the years we have made a habit of losing the wealth we have. As a result, we have now reached the bottom of poor economic management. The recent credit rating downgrade by Moody’s and Central Bank’s directive on exporters confirms the crisis we are in. As per the news reports, we have submitted documentation to secure $ 3.5 billion from Oman to sustain our fuel supply. This means the country’s future fuel supply is at a potential risk. This will discourage investors and foreign direct investments (FDIs). We already have LP gas and sugar shortages. Even if the price controls have been removed, there are no dollars to open and clear letters of credits for banks to operate. Our misperceptions in thinking that resources are indeed wealth, have made Sri Lanka what it is today.

Wealth is the ability to create wealth. Poverty is the state of thinking about money or resources as wealth without realising how to recreate wealth. Bill Gates was absolutely right.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Sri Lankans’ common enemy is poverty, not each other

In this weekly column on The Sunday Morning Business titled “The Coordination Problem”, the scholars and fellows associated with Advocata attempt to explore issues around economics, public policy, the institutions that govern them and their impact on our lives and society.

Originally appeared on The Morning

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By Dhananath Fernando

We may worship different gods but as Sri Lankans, we all have one enemy – poverty. According to data on Sri Lanka’s poverty line, 4.1% of our population is “poor”, but nearly 50% of our population is eligible for the Samurdhi Programme. Another 1.4 million is employed in the government sector. Therefore, the majority of Sri Lankans are just above the poverty line.

This was confirmed recently by the World Bank (WB), when it downgraded us to a lower middle-income country from an upper-middle-income country, as our Gross National Income dropped in USD (dollar) terms. In other words, we have become poorer.

Our economy has grown by 2.3% in LKR (Sri Lankan rupee) terms but in reality, we have become poorer as our GDP growth in USD terms has dropped to the standard of living that existed in Sri Lanka in 2005. Even though we were an upper-middle-income country for a short period, Sri Lanka’s province-wise income told a different story. Apart from the Western Province, the other provinces were way below the upper-middle-income range. It is clear that our average income was skewed by Western Province data.

At a time when we have all become poorer, the last thing we need is to fight amongst ourselves based on cast, creed, religion, or ethnicity.

If you look at Sri Lanka’s history, our highest growth rates and higher levels of production were achieved when the country was in peace. Although there were many interpretations of it, after 2009, which saw the end of the civil war, the country experienced tremendous growth rates above 7% with the Northern and Eastern Provinces joining the national economy. 

However, unfortunately, we failed to establish the fundamentals of our economy post-war, and we have been paying constantly for our early mistakes. We only reaped the advantage of ending the war but we failed to utilise the opportunity to put in place basic fundamentals such as incentive structures, competitiveness, and price-based mechanisms in our economy. Till we establish that basic building block, we will have to go back and forth, and will not be able to experience sustainable growth to defeat our common enemy – poverty – and reach high-income status. 

An encouraging work environment as a country 

A country with a motivated workforce is one determinant the next Government needs to establish if we are serious about a prosperous Sri Lanka. Political parties may be victorious after the election but making Sri Lanka a victorious nation goes far beyond just securing a winning majority at an election. Winning elections is the same as an opportunity to play a cricket match representing the national team. In order to make Sri Lanka prosperous, it needs to put in a game-changing performance that ends in victory. A motivated workforce can only be built on unity between all Sri Lankans so that we can all work as one team, resulting in increased productivity. According to Frederick Herzberg’s Two Factor Theory (of Motivation), there is a hygiene factor instead of a motivator and in the absence of hygiene factors, people get demotivated easily. The biggest loser from tensions between the people and racial disharmony will be our economy, a fact that has been proven throughout history.

Most aspirational Sri Lankans are now tired of experiencing lost economic opportunities and revisiting these never-changing issues. Aspirational Sri Lankans expect to work harder, have better living standards, and to not be entangled in micro issues.  

The recent downgrade to lower-middle-income status has a greater impact, after the Easter Sunday attacks and tensions we witnessed thereafter. Even before the Easter attacks, the riots in Digana and internet blockages were indicators that alerted us about tension between ethnicities – a move in the wrong direction. International investors need stable and peaceful destinations to invest their money. Internal ethnic tensions and communal disharmony tend to scare away potential investments that could drive domestic economic growth.  

This phenomenon is key, among many other reasons, for our lethargic performance on the economic front over the last few years. Recent incidents connected to licensed banking institutes, which were shared widely over social media, highlight that tensions still prevail. If allowed to grow and fester, the price we all have to pay for these untreated wounds will be enormous. All Sri Lankans as well as the Government should understand that a peaceful, secure environment with a motivated and skilled workforce is a basic requirement for a small island nation of the calibre of Sri Lanka.

What should be our strategy and solution?

As outlined in this column, and as many other intellectuals have highlighted repeatedly, Sri Lanka’s strength is in its location and connectivity. Our weakness is that we are a small market and our resources are limited, while the available resources are not optimised. So we are left with no other strategy but to produce for a bigger market than our 22 million people and be competitive on all we produce by global standards. However, we cannot be competitive without having our house in order. 

Our success as a country depends on our ability to understand other people’s needs and the ability to provide goods and services for their needs and address gaps in the market. If we produce only for ourselves and for our own consumption, isn’t it a very short-sighted and selfish approach, which will limit us from reaching our full potential? 

If we blindly follow some trends in the US and other parts of the world which have far bigger domestic markets and very different economic indicators, we will be wasting our advantage of connectivity and location while also expanding our weakness as an isolated and divided society. 

As Frédéric Bastiat said, “when goods and services don’t cross borders, soldiers will”. We should ensure all Sri Lankans engage and trade with all Sri Lankans, beyond manmade intangible borders such as caste, creed, ethnicity, and religion. At the same time, we should trade beyond our shores and country borders if we are serious about making Mother Lanka prosperous again and defeating our common enemy – poverty. 

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.