Originally appeared on The Morning
By Dhananath Fernando
When I was a kid, my father used to share stories about heroes, science, literature, and many more. I still remember the day he shared the story of Sir Issac Newton’s famous story of an apple falling from a tree, which made him think more and discovered the theory of gravitational forces. I wasn’t very impressed with the story. I questioned back as a kid: “If there is a force, why can’t we see it. Can’t we avoid gravity during the night? How can gravity act on a water surface and how can water flow if there is gravity?”
Later I realised, just because we can’t see it, that does not mean it doesn’t exist. It was because as a kid I simply did not understand the concept of gravity. The concept of “markets” is the same. It’s there and we all are part of it. When markets work well, we do not feel the existence of it. We only feel the existence of markets when we try to intervene in markets.
The current milk powder shortage and long lines to buy LP gas is a classic case of market interventions. While we have long lines for LP gas and milk powder, there are no lines to buy shampoo or soap or similar household products. In both cases, the market exists, but we just don’t see it.
Milk powder shortage
In the case of milk powder, supermarkets have rationed the quantity that can be purchased and most of the milk powder shelves are empty. There are many sides to the story. One side is that milk powder is not good for health, so we should move to liquid milk. There is further argument that Sri Lanka has to be self-sufficient in milk and produce all the milk it requires. As a result, Sri Lanka has always imposed high tariffs on powdered milk as well as imported milk, as high as 33.1%, as per the previous tariff calculations. This has been carried out with the objective of promoting local milk farmers and industry.
In Sri Lanka, there is a conspiracy theory for anything. The conspiracy theory is that milk powder companies create artificial shortages to cause inconvenience for the government and promote milk powder.
When we look at data and numbers, however, the story is different and it is multidimensional. First, global milk powder prices have been increasing significantly over the past few years. Since most of the milk powder is imported, when the global prices are increasing and when our currency is depreciating, there is no alternative to keeping prices constant. However, the Government and it’s main price regulating body, the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA), are not allowing price increases by milk powder companies. They have at present imposed a price control – if you visit their website, the price controls can be seen.
Different brands and different pack sizes have specified prices. However, when global prices continue to increase constantly at one point, milk powder companies will reach a point where the losses of selling one pack of milk powder exceeds the loss of not selling a packet of milk powder at all.
At that point, obviously, the supply will be curtailed by the companies as no company can survive by making losses. So in a market system, the shortages start taking place. The long lines or shortages of any product category is the outcome of the market intervention in the form of price controls. (Source: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/)
This is basic economics which this column has explained many times.
The second argument is on the health concerns of milk powder. Many people are confused about why people do not consume liquid milk regardless of much propaganda by certain trade union groups and ideological groups.
The answer again lies in economics. In Sri Lanka, the domestic liquid milk demand is at about 700 million litres per annum, whereas our production is only 374 million litres per annum. Obviously, the balance has to be matched if we cannot produce it. On the flip side, our milk production is extremely unproductive. The average production by a milking cow is about 4.3 litres per day, whereas the world average is about 28 litres per day. In some countries like Israel, the productivity is about 40 litres per milking cow per day. Obviously, our productivity is very low to match the demand and we have been protecting the inefficiencies in the milk industry by imposing high tariff rates as high as 33.1%, as per the previous tariff calculations on milk-related products in importation.
When the global prices move up and when our currency is depreciating, when banks are going through a hard time to provide foreign exchange for importations, there is no way we can keep our prices constant in the milk powder market.
Only if we allow the prices to move up will the people who value milk powder at those prices will buy it, and there will be an incentive for other alternatives for milk powder to enter the market. So people can decide what they want and shift to alternatives. Even the promoters of liquid milk should now support a move to raise the prices of powdered milk, so that there is an incentive for increasing the supply of liquid milk in the market.
The case of LP gas
The liquefied petroleum (LP) gas market follows similar dimensions. Global gas prices have increased rapidly along with crude oil prices, and Sri Lanka has only two players. One is the government-owned operator and the other is the private sector operator. Private sector local businessmen cannot increase prices and they cannot import due to the US dollar shortage in the country. When we only have two players in the market and when one player is going out of the market due to price controls and US dollar shortages, the markets react naturally. It reacts in ways such as shortages, hoarding, or people who are storing more than what they want for future usage/panic-buying. So naturally, products will start disappearing at an accelerated rate. (Source: Saudi Aramco LPG prices per metric tonne)
The prices should move up and there is no doubt it would burden people with an increasing cost of living. But having long lines and making people inconvenienced during a global pandemic would cause more harm than a rise in the cost of living. As a result, the Government has finally decided to let the prices go up by Rs. 386 for the private sector player, but the actual value will be determined by the market.
Markets work whether we like it or not. Thinking that we can oversmart markets by price controls and regulations is no different to a man who tries to avoid gravity without realising the entire concept in the first place.
The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.