Cricket while the country burns?

Originally appeared on The Morning.

By Dhananath Fernando

In the mid 1990s, when Sri Lanka’s Cricket was performing extraordinarily well, there was an accusation that then President Chandrika Bandaranayake Kumarathunga was announcing unpopular policy decisions while public attention was on cricket. After Sri Lanka won a match, and while people are celebrating the next morning, the prices of items such as bread and LP gas are increased. There were even rumors that LTTE leaders had said “Sri Lankans remember any event only for two weeks”. Today, while public & media attention is focused on our historic cricket win against Australia, our policymakers seem to think that the attention diversion from cricket would save them from a historic Economic crisis. They are definitely wrong.

While IMF representatives are in Sri Lanka to explore the details of the programme, the drive for reforms among policy makers is extremely slow. Even more than 2 months after announcing the suspension of external debt, we have not yet provided any policy direction for stakeholders on reforms that we intend to follow to overcome the crisis.

So far, it seems like another round of political musical chairs without any genuine effort from policymakers to enact economic reforms. The school of thought that favored bringing political reforms hand in hand with Economic reforms is also now in question due to the situation with the 21st amendment. According to the Prime Minister, as per his recent speech in Parliament, we have to show our willingness for reforms to get the support of other countries. So what willingness has been indicated by our policy makers on any reforms? We have only been going to other countries and organizations with a begging bowl to find money for essentials on a weekly basis, and sadly that has become the new normal. We are at a very high risk of some level of social unrest with no reforms on the table and the poor leadership on display from our representatives. A short video clip uploaded by a journalist of a man in a fuel queue alerted me to the degree of risk we are in. The journalist asked about the impact of the economic crisis from this particular person in the queue. He said, with a very calm tone and patient body language, “I am a chauffeur and a father of 3 kids. I kindly request our leaders to not test the patience of fathers like me. The current protests & ‘Galle Face Green protests’ are broadly by youth. Not by fathers like me. Fathers like me do everything for our kids. We can’t see them suffering. When a father crosses the border of patience we don’t know where it will stop,” he said, with a measured tone and with a lot of depth.

While this column highlighted many preliminary reforms over the last two years, there are new reforms that we have to expedite given the severity of the crisis. As recent news stories have indicated, the debt restructuring in Sri Lanka seems likely to be very complicated and time consuming. In particular, the news that Hamilton Reserve Bank is suing Sri Lanka in American Federal courts indicates how complicated the situation could become. As per the report, they possess more than 25% of the July 2022 bond series and are requesting the full amount to be paid; they possess a share of the bond large enough to make them a ‘blocking minority’ which can block and delay the entire debt negotiating programme. The IMF, for their part, has indicated that they want to see a clear direction on debt restructuring if they were to support Sri Lanka. Bilateral partners such as China and Japan will also play a vital role in the entire process.

Given this situation and our slow approach to Economic reforms even after announcing debt restructuring, we will be left with a lot more debt to be paid. If we move at this pace, there is no doubt that we will have subsequent defaults even after restructuring, if we fail to boost economic growth. Therefore, the establishment of an independent debt office is extremely important. Our debt portfolio is diverse and expensive so highly skilled financial analysts should manage our debt in line with global trends. Following the dilution of our Civil Service, that level of skill is unfortunately not available in our public sector. Given the salary scale of the public sector we can’t expect talent with the calibre of skills of a fund manager to stay in the public sector. Simply put, a salary scale of LKR80,000 will not attract a fund manager who has to manage a few billion rupees worth of debts. Therefore, the independent public debt office should have a different salary scale (based on key performance indicators) and independent regulation if we are to have a sustainable problem for our debt crisis. We are where we are today due to our poor debt management. The “Common Minimum Programme” by the National Movement for Social Justice has indicated the same.

Furthermore, this crisis will inevitably impact many private enterprises and a record number of businesses will go bankrupt. In a market system it is unavoidable that while some companies succeed, others will fail. Our legal framework should allow the failed firms a faster exit so entrepreneurs can bounce back with a new business or otherwise utilise their time productively. Investing their energy and money on something productive instead of on an already failed business will inevitably affect the overall productivity and efficiency of the economy. Unfortunately, Sri Lanka does not have unified bankruptcy laws. So when a company fails, exit is not easy. More money, time & energy has to be invested to manage a bankruptcy as a result. There are some exceptions laid out as provisions in the Companies Act, but for most micro, small and medium enterprises - which are sole properties and partnerships - the absence of a bankruptcy law will cause severe repercussions. Sri Lanka should proactively think of these issues before the situation gets out of control.

Our policymakers should realise that the hunger and anger of the common man has created a volatile and flammable situation. There is no way for cricket or any other diversion to stop the righteous fury of a hungry man, so it is imperative that we bring about Economic reforms before a spark ignites the entire situation and pushes us deeper into crisis.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.

Policy instability is as bad as political instability

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

The Govt. must start pulling the economy in one direction

We are just over five months away from the 25th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s 1996 Cricket World Cup victory, which is still engraved in every Sri Lankan’s mind. Since then, our players have gone on to break world records and build legendary careers. They have been named in many Greatest XI lists and represented all the major cricket leagues around the world. Therefore, it is clear the quality of our cricketers has improved in leaps and bounds over the past quarter of a century, and we even secured a T20 cricket World Cup in 2014.

However, cricket’s greatest prize has eluded us since 1996 so it is interesting to re-evaluate the contributory factors of the 1996 victory. It is my belief those key takeaways will provide us with some insight on strategies to overcome the current economic storm. There are many elements and ingredients in mapping out the winning formula. However, I see two main contributory factors.

First is the “stability of the team”. Second is a combination of all other factors along with the cricket administration, which I like to call cricket-political stability, or “crickelitical stability” if you will. The 1996 team was not a star-studded team. Most of them became stars after playing the World Cup, including Sanath Jayasuriya, Muttiah Muralitharan, and Chaminda Vaas. It was the above two factors that made them world champions, which have unfortunately remained unattainable to Sri Lanka, even following 25 years of advanced investments and resources.

In an economic context, similar to the cricket team, “policy stability” and “political stability” are both extremely important. Sri Lankans have never had the luck to experience the joy of a World Cup victory in economic terms. This can be mainly attributed to Sri Lanka’s excessive focus on political stability rather than policy stability. The economic equivalent to a World Cup victory in the Sri Lankan context would be achieving lower poverty rates and reaching a GDP per capita of above $ 10,000. This, in my opinion, remains an elusive dream. Over the years, the business community and policy analysts have been highlighting the importance of policy stability and consistency, but we have failed on both fronts.

Lessons from the previous Government

Initially, the last national Government had a two-thirds majority in Parliament. However, policy stability was non-existent. Different parts of the Government functioned with opposing views which resulted in public policy being pushed in two opposing directions. This filtered down to all levels of government.

The then Prime Minister’s policy statement and the Budget Speech by the then Finance Minister prioritised two different policy agendas. Significant salary hikes for the public sector which were not affordable to the state balance sheet, and revising the VAT (value-added tax) rate several times, are a few examples of policy inconsistency. The Vision 2025 policy statement which was the main policy agenda of the Government, was released a considerable time after taking over office. Moreover, in implementation, it was not given equal priority by all sections of the Government. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Management (CCEM) was then replaced by the then President with the National Economic Council (NEC), which was later dismantled by the then President himself. This resulted in a major setback, since important policy decisions took place without sufficient deliberations, thereby leading to further policy inconsistency within the Government. 

Cabinet reshuffles on key portfolios were observed a few times. The constitutional crisis that emerged with the appointing of a new Prime Minister was a key highlight of the island’s policy instability. It goes without saying that this level of instability and inconsistency is beyond the capacity of a small economy in the Indian Ocean. Policy stability and consistency is something that cannot be achieved only at the top level. Consensus between political leaders executing government functions in order to get something done is political stability. The policy implementation team and the execution of those decisions have to fall in line with the policy. It is only then that we can achieve policy stability.

There are so many things that can get held up at the lower level, starting from misplacing documents. This may have a significant effect on policy implementation, especially if we fail to get policy execution in line with the policy agenda. The World Cup victory in 1996 was a team effort where everyone contributed equally at all levels, from the team manager to the water boy. Another important element is political stability in Sri Lanka. This requires policy stability in the economic front, especially to overcome the current crisis.

Evaluation of the current Government: Post one year

In completing one year of being in power, the current Government should be extra cautious and re-evaluate their performance on realistic measures. The accuracy and relevance of their actions, policy consistency, and stability should be the Government’s priority.

Last week’s Economic Summit organised by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce highlighted a few sentiments that are reflective of some elements of policy inconsistency.

The Governor of the Central Bank highlighted the importance of self-sufficiency with an emphasis on state sector-led development as a key strategy to support local industries to navigate these uncertain times. The Governor expressed his lack of interest in resorting to advice or support of any foreign agencies.

This statement was followed by a session where the Chairman of the Export Development Board (EDB) and Director General of the BOI (Board of Investment) emphasised on the importance of the Government simply playing the role of an enabler. They highlighted the importance of the private sector in driving economic growth and exports. Furthermore, they reiterated the importance of attaining know-how and capital through Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs). This, in their opinion, was the only way forward, if Sri Lanka is to seriously consider development.

For any economy to thrive there are few drivers that come into play. The ability of the people to connect with the economy and link with global production networks has become a fundamental necessity of the modern world. However, the question remains as to how we can achieve the above and if we will ever get implement the reforms to enable this.

From a public policy perspective, “self-sufficiency” stands in contrast to driving global trade, increasing exports, getting connected to global production networks, and FDIs. They are opposing policy outcomes. Having such opposing policy outcomes makes it difficult for a government to have a twin strategy to approach problems which are interconnected and it sends mixed signals to markets.

A common mistake of many governments that is attributed to their failure is their inability to consider the economy in its entirety. FDIs, exports, exchange rates, labour market, debt management, and all other factors of the economy are interconnected. If we fail to look at an overall picture and only target certain sections of the economy, policy instability will be inevitable. This in turn leads to a vicious cycle of political instability. Sadly, this has been Sri Lanka’s excruciating reality for a while.

This vicious cycle is precisely what this administration must strive to avoid.

In my opinion, getting the reforms done, expanding our connectivity to global value chains, and letting the private sector drive the economy is of paramount importance.

Policy stability goes beyond keeping the tax rates consistent or retaining certain sectors as priorities. It requires cohesiveness from all levels. Mainly at the implementation level where there has to be a continuous follow up between the different actors, while simultaneously keeping in mind the overall picture of the economy. It is about creating an ecosystem between sectors where all sectors work at an optimum capacity and level. The only way to do it is to allow the price mechanism to lead the market and let the resource allocation be done based on market prices.

If Sri Lanka is looking for a World Cup-winning era in terms of our economy, we must focus on policy consistency and stability, while maintaining political stability.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.