Originally appeared on The Morning
By Dhananath Fernando
Shortages have now become abundant and the new normal. We all know the reason: the foreign exchange shortage that is causing shortages of many essential and non-essential goods. Shortages have even affected our basic essentials, such as fuel and electricity.
We all know the solutions for the problems as well. Unfortunately, we have a shortage of policymakers who have the courage to enact the reforms to rescue our people from the commodity shortages.
There are many contributing factors to potential shortages: supply chain disruptions, natural disasters, and many other externalities. However, in the Sri Lankan context, it is primarily price controls that are causing shortages.
When there were price controls on tinned fish, there was a shortage of tinned fish. We had a controlled price for dhal, and dhal disappeared from the market. Cement prices were controlled and we experienced a cement shortage. The same has happened for US Dollars (USD). The Government controlled the price of USD, and the country has a shortage of USD. However, the USD problem is somewhat more complicated as price controls are just one of the reasons for the shortage. Controlling the price of the dollar has the worst effects of all the price controls as it has repercussions on all imports and exports.
As a result of the deteriorating situation, the Government removed price controls on most items which is commendable. It was clearly the right thing to do. Cement, milk powder, and many other commodities removed their price controls. But controls remained in a few very important categories: most significantly, USD and pharmaceuticals. The dollar shortage is worsening the shortages in all other industries and pharmaceutical shortages are creating a nightmare for many patients and their families. Even shortages of basic medicines such as the painkiller paracetamol have been reported. Although it was reported that the demand has increased by more than 200% due to Covid and Dengue, in a market system paracetamol cannot suffer shortages unless there is an economic issue (1).
One of my relatives has a rare type of pneumonia, and only one drug brand is effective in treating it. Since the disease is rare, only a small quantity of that particular drug was imported. Now with dollar shortages and delays in opening Letters of Credit (LCs), that particular drug is of less priority to the drug importer, as the same dollars could have been utilised to import more profitable drugs.
On the other hand, there are price controls on some drugs and pharmaceuticals. As a result, when the prices have increased, no businesses would have the incentive to import them, as they would be engaging in a business where the cost is higher than the selling price (or where the profit margins are so razor-thin that investment is not justified).
Additionally, pharmaceutical prices and some active pharmaceutical ingredient prices have increased due to the pandemic and resulting supply chain interruptions. Simply maintaining rigid price controls doesn’t make economic sense and it only causes shortages in the market. It even makes the situation worse for local manufacturers, who find it difficult to source raw materials/ingredients. The State Pharmaceutical Corporation (SPC) can survive, because it’s a government institute, and it will receive preferential treatment from the State banks in opening LCs and will receive subsidies from the taxpayer.
In the case of private companies, the importation of drugs and active pharmaceutical agents are conducted through long-term contracts. If LCs cannot be honoured or opened, both their professional business relationships and the reliability of supply will be affected. Sometimes with changes in credit periods, cost factors will change. This will occur particularly when there are doubts in the market on the exchange rate. In today’s Sri Lanka, where the kerb/black market rate is 20-30% higher than the rate offered by banks, the cost of imports is obviously going to be higher.
Price controls on pharma are going to create shortages of the drugs that we depend on, as we have already experienced with products including tinned fish, dhal, milk powder, and cement.
Due to shortages of USD and difficulties in opening LCs, even without price controls it will be difficult to avoid shortages. The main reason is that 2022’s entire global economy is connected through the dollar alone. In such a context, price controls are just going to make the problem worse.
It is understandable from the Government’s point of view that allowing a sudden price increase of pharma products may not be politically feasible. But it may have a more significant political impact if the products are simply not available on the market. As with oil products, we could have aligned the prices slowly at regular intervals so that the price hikes would be more digestible for the average citizen and therefore less politically damaging. If we had enacted price revisions that aligned with global market prices we may not be where we are today. That is why the market system depends on the price mechanism – it is the thermometer which balances supply and demand.
For a market system, competition comes before regulation. Imports and exports must work together at full capacity for prices to come down. Therefore, the regulatory framework has to be managed in a way that allows market forces to work.
When the Board of Investment was positioned as a ‘One Stop Shop,’ there was a joke among the business community that “It’s one more stop” would be more apt. Similarly, the National Medicines Regulatory Authority (NMRA) – supposed to be the regulator of prices and quality of medicines and medical equipment – has simply added a severe burden to the process rather than making it easier.
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The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.