Living the same economic year 73 times

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

Both the Government and the Opposition are in agreement that Sri Lanka’s ailing economy is at peril. A few weeks ago, the Minister of Energy admitted that buying fuel has become a challenging task with import payments only being settled after nine months. These same sentiments were echoed by the former Prime Minister when he was recently sworn in as a Member of Parliament. However, the diagnosis of the problem at hand and building an action plan to address it is continuing at a snail’s pace.

The problem has reached a level where letters of credit (LCs) are opened on a rationed basis and some importers have claimed that private banks do not facilitate foreign currency for their imports. On the other hand, forex dealers have been barred from quoting above Rs. 200 for the dollar.

This will simply create more forex shortages as people who have USD now would not sell it to the Government as it does not reflect the market value. Instead, people may consider parking money outside or keep it in USD terms considering the devaluation of the Sri Lankan rupee in real terms. Owing to the Central Bank regulation, even though the USD rate is less than Rs. 200, in the open market the rates are much higher.

Shortages in foreign exchange is not a recent phenomenon. The Minister of Trade mentioned at Parliament that the current foreign exchange crisis is the worst ever in history. However, our solution for the problem so far has been “not proposing any solution”.

We are doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. If we rewind back to 16 June 2020, the President criticised the Central Bank for not extending their support and not utilising the tools to revive the economy.

In February this year, the State Minister of Finance mentioned that the fears of debt sustainability have no grounds as we expect $ 32 billion of inflows and total International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs). He went on to say that the country’s outstanding debt is only about 16% and annual debt servicing of $ 4 billion is manageable compared to $ 32 billion of inflows.

Depending on the same figures, the President in November last year assured debt sustainability after a credit rating downgrade by Fitch.

However, the forex crisis pops up again and the frequency of the problem is getting higher. Earlier imports were controlled and then exporters were requested to convert 25% of their earnings on an immediate basis. However, regardless of strict measures and stringent regulations being imposed, the results have been the same or are getting worse.

Now even the members of the ruling party have started to admit the forex challenge at hand.

Earlier, the Leader of the House said answering a question posted by a journalist that the Government has enough money to take up mega development projects. However, last week, the Minister of Trade and the Minister of Energy were open about how difficult the situation is.

It is an indication that things are getting challenging. On the flip side, it’s a positive indication. At least, everyone is getting to realise the gravity of the problem in the first place. Until recently, there was denial of the fact that there is even a crisis to begin with. A Citi Bank report in December last year was titled “Denial is not a strategy”. This shows that even our international stakeholders were aware that we as a country have been denying the problem rather than providing a solution.

According to the current Government, the previous Government is mainly responsible for the economic crisis at hand as growth numbers were low and the debt numbers were high at the point of the transition. According to the main Opposition, this Government’s tax cut programme introduced in December 2019 and poor Covid management are the main reasons for where we are now. In politics that is how things are. It is always someone else that is responsible for the problem.

The common belief is that bad politics is leading to bad economics as the politicians lack understanding of economic policy and the inherent corruption. While there is some truth to it, often bad economics leads to bad politics.

It is unavoidable that bad economics fuel political storms. If we look at the defeat of the previous Government, it was too led by bad economics. Policies by the two Heads of State were in two different directions. The very first interim budget was stretching the government balance sheet beyond our capacity with massive pay increases for government employees. A proper economic plan was absent and by the time the V2025 policy formulation was done which was poorly implemented, it was too late to come back to a growth trajectory. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Management (CCEM) was dissolved and a National Economic Council (NEC) was appointed and later even the NEC was dissolved. The same policy contradiction on the top led to a constitutional crisis and a vacuum in national security ended up in a terrorist attack that could have been prevented. The Easter attacks were a big negative shock to our entire economy.

As a result of this sequence of events, the then ruling party, United National Party (UNP), was divided into two and the then Prime Minister had to experience a historic defeat in the last general election, which was just 10 months ago with a roaring two-thirds majority for the current ruling party.

It seems back-to-back economic decisions by the current administration are repeating the same mistake of the previous administration and another political crisis spiral is brewing.

Growing import bans, not implementing a proper economic reform agenda, and inward-looking policies of self-sufficiency combined with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has created instability in the entire financial system leading to a historic balance of payment crisis. Politically, it has opened a window for the same Prime Minister who was defeated just 10 months ago and has challenged the Government on economic and Covid management. So we are back again on the vicious cycle of bad economics leading to bad politics. The irony is that bad economics not only leads to bad politics but also has a serious negative effect on the quality of life and poverty of all Sri Lankans. Unfortunately, we as a nation have become victims of this vicious cycle. Robin Sharma popularly said: “Don’t spend the same year 75 times and call it a life.” There is no doubt that here in Sri Lanka, we have been doing exactly that for the past 73 years since Independence.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.