Originally appeared on The Morning
By Dhananath Fernando
Kumar Sangakkara in his famous Colin Cowdrey Lecture at London’s hallowed Marylebone Cricket Club (MCC) in 2011 said: “In cricket, timing is everything.” Not only in cricket but in economics and politics too, timing is everything.
Unfortunately, Sri Lanka’s track record on “economic reforms” has been very poor and completely devoid of timing. We have been completely ignorant of the need for economic reform and things are now at a dire stage. Across the board, even the Government has conceded that things are not easy!
Sri Lanka is experiencing a second wave of Covid-19 and the continued imposition of curfew in parts of an important district such Gampaha, which is a key economic centre, is a cause for concern. The recent lockdowns also cover a free trade zone, the country’s main international airport, and many export-oriented factories. Hence, one cannot simply ignore the economic impact of this health crisis.
Our economy contracted by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2019 and the second quarter data is yet to be released. On the positive side, our exports have exceeded the $ 1 billion mark in September and our remittances have increased by 28% YoY (year-on-year). While this increase in remittances is a good sign, this sudden increase may be due to workers sending home their final savings due to job losses. Another positive sign is that our stock market is performing well with about Rs. 5 billion turnover with more than 41,000 transactions, the highest since 2011. However, on the other hand, following Moody’s credit rating downgrade and even prior to that, the departure of foreign investors from the stock market can be observed, and our treasury bills have been undersubscribed as of late.
Unfortunately, with Covid-19 infections picking up again, it is unlikely that people will see further relief measures from the Government, as the Government’s finances are in a complicated situation; in fact, they are probably worse off than our household finances. Reopening the country for tourism will most likely be postponed, at least until the end of the first quarter of next year, and further moratoriums or government handouts may be unlikely, given that the budget deficit for 2021 is expected to be around 9% of GDP.
In this context, we have to admit that our economy cannot be fixed just by incremental reforms. Superficial changes or stopgap solutions will not help us reach where we aspire to be.
Unfortunately what we are seeing at the moment are attempts to micromanage what is essentially a macroeconomic problem, while serious core economic concerns are reaching a boiling point. Measures such as the reduction of tariff lines on a few consumable goods and allowing the importation of some ingredients for the production of incense sticks are just a couple of examples of ad hoc micromanagement of the macroeconomy. When a senior minister has to engage himself in a micro-task such as creating a tiny tariff reduction on just one HS (Harmonised System) code, it prevents them from prioritising the broader issues to navigate the economy at a time where the country is facing the unprecedented crisis of Covid-19.
A similar situation was reported to have occurred during the 1970s where the Minister of Finance had to go through a file every morning to evaluate the licence requests for the importation of motor vehicles. When a Finance Minister has to sit and supervise such a micro issue, it is obvious that many other policy priorities will be either ignored or mismanaged.
The World Bank predicted an economic contraction of about 6.7% for 2020 even before the emergence of the new wave of Covid infections, but mainstream conversation has been focused on constitutional reforms, particularly the 20th Amendment. It is true that people have provided a clear mandate for a new constitution, but our policymakers have to think of the timing of the new constitution and other constitutional reforms. The country and people’s needs and expectations have shifted, especially as the entire world is grappling with a pandemic. New needs and lifestyles have been created. Consumer and citizen behaviour and priorities have undergone a massive transformation. This doesn’t mean that the mandate for a new constitution is no longer valid, but the timing and focus being given to a new constitution has to be reconsidered. This matter could just as easily be taken up whenever the current crisis has been dealt with.
There is no doubt that our constitution is far from our expectations, but the brewing economic crisis (not just in Sri Lanka but across the world) requires 100 times greater focus for the economy to be put back on the right track.
The previous Government too was spending its energy on a new constitution without focusing on much-needed economic reforms. After spending significant time and resources during its tenure on a proposed constitution, it was ultimately not even presented to Parliament. Much-needed economic reforms were postponed and we ended up with 2.3% economic growth with stagnation in exports and foreign direct investments.
It is a political reality that there is a trade-off between constitutional reform and economic reform. Ultimately, for both constitutional reforms and economic reforms, one needs to sacrifice some political capital as, naturally, there is opposition to any type of reform. It all comes down to prioritising what reforms are urgent considering the internal and external environments.
Serious legal reforms can be carried out to positively affect businesses and the business climate before these planned constitutional reforms. As I have highlighted before in this column, Sri Lanka’s land regulations, regulations on micro and small enterprises, and employment regulations can be easily reformed to bring faster results. Age-old laws, regulations, and bureaucratic practices continue to hamper investment. Therefore, instead of a heavily energy-consuming constitutional reform process, we can focus on getting our economic fundamentals right. Creating competition and competitiveness is the way to go.
Over the years, while we have been discussing constitutional reforms, our regional peers have moved ahead of us, especially on the economic front. For example, Vietnam increased its exports from $ 50 billion to $ 250 billion from 2008 to 2018, while Sri Lanka’s performance improved only from $ 7.5 billion to $ 10 billion in the same period.
National Budget 2021
Now the Government has a golden opportunity to bring in a series of economic reforms through the upcoming national budget. A clear direction through serious reforms will bring back credibility to the Government and the economy, and send a positive signal to investors locally and globally. Sri Lanka’s economic problems have gone far beyond ad hoc fixing. Now it can only be fixed through macro reforms.
Then comes the question of what sort of reforms. In the world of business and economics, it is incentives that drive growth and innovation. It is by expanding markets and access to markets that growth can be achieved. It is through competition and by creating a level playing field that growing economies, including our regional peers, have achieved growth. So, for a market of 21 million people, our reforms have to be based on setting up proper incentives, connecting with other markets, and improving productivity for those who work hard and value-free exchange of goods and services.
Bringing in these macro changes before micromanagement has to be at the forefront of government policy. Unfortunately, we have no other alternative if we are serious about creating a prosperous country. Let’s hope that Sri Lanka will get its timing right at least this time and establish the right fundamentals for a competitive economy.
The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.
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