Sumhiya Sallay

Partial privatisation: A happy middle ground?

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In this weekly column on The Sunday Morning Business titled “The Coordination Problem”, the scholars and fellows associated with Advocata attempt to explore issues around economics, public policy, the institutions that govern them and their impact on our lives and society.

Originally appeared on The Morning


By Sumhiya Sallay

Reforming Sri Lanka’s state-owned enterprises has been part of the new Government’s policy agenda. With 527 SOEs, Sri Lanka has an excessive number of state-owned enterprises. Financial reporting of these enterprises has been low, and the Ministry of Finance has published the financials of only 54 of these state-owned enterprises, which have been classified as “strategic”. The losses of these 54 are staggering enough; in 2018, they made a net loss of Rs. 26 billion, thus making it clear that reform in this sector is badly needed.

The Government has committed itself to transforming them into profitable entities; a committee has been appointed to hire technocrats onto the boards of these state enterprises, and the committee has called for applications. While this is commendable, the reform agenda appears to end here; the next step of privatising some of the loss-making, non-strategic state enterprises has been taken off the table. This is made abundantly clear in the Government’s National Policy Framework, which states that it will enact laws to stop the privatisation of state enterprises.

If privatisation is off the table, what can be done?

The three main state enterprises – Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC), Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), and SriLankan Airlines – recorded a combined loss of 1.3% of GDP in 2018, compared to 0.5% of GDP in 2017. Given that the expected revenue loss from the recent tax cuts is an estimated 2% of GDP, it is clear that turning our state enterprises around would go a long way towards achieving the fiscal targets set by the Government.

If the Government has taken the option of privatisation off the table, but wants to actively transform state enterprises into profit-making entities, the option of private management should not be dismissed in the same breath as privatisation. Private management of state enterprises would essentially be partial privatisation. In this scenario, the Government would share ownership of the enterprise with a private company, and the management of the enterprise would be transferred to the private company. In the case of strategic enterprises, the Government could retain majority shareholding.

A government’s primary responsibilities towards its country and people should not be the management of business enterprises; the government has a responsibility to uphold the rule of law, ensure national security, and protect the rights of its citizens, and the management – or in this case the mismanagement – of state enterprises should not make the list. A government is the entity that sets the rules of the game; it details out the laws and regulations that govern businesses. When a government also enters the playing field, there is an inherent conflict of interest that occurs. Even if the government remains impartial, it does not have the necessary incentives in place to run a business successfully.

However, when a private entity manages a business, they would look at increased profits as the business is under their sole control, and any losses they make or issues they face would be their responsibility. The incentive is to minimise losses and make the business more productive. A private entity managing state enterprises would absolve the Government of having to invest in loss-making public enterprises and reduce government borrowing.

Privatization

Further, private management would bring down fiscal and administrative pressure of state-owned entities and remove the huge weight of having to manage state enterprises off the Government’s shoulders. This encourages the Government to work towards providing increased quality of living for the people through effective governance, rather than spending so much of its time and money on managing businesses.

The idea of partial privatisation, initially, may be a challenge to implement, but in the long run, it would result in highly effective results. This would also mean that there would be less political influence on the management of state enterprises.

It has worked before, so why dismiss it?

Looking back at partial privatisation in Sri Lanka, a significant achievement has been the liberalisation of the telecommunications industry. This was implemented in order to provide better services for customers through competition and industry development through private sector participation. Both customers and society as a whole benefited from it as there was a reduction in call charges (tariffs), improved telecommunications in rural areas, decrease in equipment costs, industry profit growth, increased government revenue, etc. This example of partial privatisation shows us the benefits not only the Government but also the people would gain. Taking into account these loss-making state entities and the debt repayments the Treasury will have to make over the next few years, the option of partial privatisation by the Government should be seriously considered.


Addressing Sri Lanka’s debt: How to move forward

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In this weekly column on The Sunday Morning Business titled “The Coordination Problem”, the scholars and fellows associated with Advocata attempt to explore issues around economics, public policy, the institutions that govern them and their impact on our lives and society.

Originally appeared on The Morning


By Sumhiya Sallay

Sri Lanka’s debt-to-GDP ratio is at a staggering 82.9% as of 2018, an increase from 76.9% in 2017. While the Ministry of Finance projects that these ratios will decline in the future, achieving these targets is of the utmost importance.

With a new Government in place, the country can expect to see new projects and policies introduced as the Government works on achieving their campaign promises. It is crucial that our loan commitments are a constant point of reference in this postelection period, where policies and projects that would shape Sri Lanka for the next four years are being evaluated and decided upon.

Our new title of upper middle-income country recognises the economic growth we have witnessed as a country. The challenge that lies ahead is sustaining this growth and clearing this hurdle of debt.

What can we do about our debt?

Sri Lanka debt

Total government debt is currently 82.9% of GDP, with the total debt service amounting to 14.5% of GDP. Government revenue as of 2018 was Rs. 1,920 billion, while government expenditure was Rs. 2,693 billion. The shortfall is clear, the Government has to borrow and borrow extensively to keep the country running. To elaborate further, the amount of money spent on debt servicing in 2018 amounted to 108.8% of government revenue. What is more alarming is the fact that the revenue-to-GDP ratio of Sri Lanka is one of the lowest in the world, and with the fast-growing emerging market economy, this brings much concern.

Bringing our debt-to-GDP ratio down will be challenging. The country will have to commit to a clear and stable monetary policy and maintain investor confidence. If these conditions are coupled with nominal growth in the economy, the result would be a fall in our debt-to-GDP ratio.

Of course, this is easier said than done, and borrowing from Peter to pay Paul is not a solution in and of itself. This needs to be accompanied with strong fiscal policy to ensure that the country gets a better grip on its finances.

Addressing expenditure

Given the recent tax cuts, it is clear that the country will have to balance this decrease in tax revenue with a corresponding decrease in government expenditure. The question is: How does a government manage their debt, taxes, and expenditure in a way that allows for economic growth while avoiding prohibitive rates of taxation?

Simply, some compromises have to be made and a delicate balance struck.

In order to achieve this balance, it is vital that we move away from ad hoc policymaking and the Government plans and works within a medium-term policy framework. In other words, the country needs to adopt a well-planned medium-term expenditure framework. This would mean that the Government would be able to plan projects and programmes taking into account a three-year resource envelope and fiscal obligations aligned with the allocated annual budget which would provide productive financial outcomes. This encourages the fiscal management of the Government’s revenue and expenditures, and thus helps control debt.

A medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) sets out a rigid budget plan within which the Cabinet and central agencies ensure fiscal discipline when allocating public resources. This approach would set fiscal targets and allocate resources for strategic priorities within these targets, thus forming the basis of national priorities and expenditure prioritisation.

The MTEF aims to improve inter and intra-sectoral resource allocation by effectively prioritising all expenditures according to the Government’s socioeconomic programmes and committing towards allocating resources to only the most important projects.

This approach would monitor current expenditure estimates of policies and programmes and form a reference point for the upcoming years’ budgets. A MTEF would pave the way for policy and funding changes and thereby give time for ministries and agency managers to adjust and make better plans for their operations.

While following a MTEF is important, the Government could look at economic policies that would need adjustments to allow the country to repay loans, such as diversifying the labour market, supporting micro to macro businesses, re-regulating SOE finances, etc.

The Government could also create a policy environment that would encourage investment. While there are clear strategies that could be followed to manage our debt, this should be at the top of the new Government’s agenda, and our debt situation should guide policies on expenditure, borrowings, and taxation.

The Ministry of Finance projects that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio will decline in the coming years, with an expected drop to 72% of GDP in 2022, but this is wholly dependent on Sri Lanka putting in place and adhering to a sustainable fiscal policy. Sri Lanka has an opportunity to overcome this challenge and it is vital that we grab this opportunity and adopt necessary policies.