Will India’s cobra bite Sri Lanka’s cattle?

Originally appeared on The Morning

By Dhananath Fernando

• A ban on cattle slaughter could create a herd of new problems

Not long ago, India had a serious issue with snakes. Many people died, as a result of being bitten by a specific species of cobras. As a remedy to this problem the government of the day, proposed a cash reward system. A bounty was made available for every dead cobra. It appeared to be a good solution at the initial stage but later on the government realised the cobra numbers are increasing though people redeem cobras. Later on the government realised that entrepreneurial Indians were now breeding cobras as an income stream and they maintain breeding houses of the same type of cobras. As a result the government suddenly stopped the cash incentive system. Then the breeders did not have any financial incentive to keep them at their breeding houses. As a result they just released the cobras to an open environment which rapidly increased the cobra population and the problem became worse than ever before. This is called the “cobra effect”, where you bring a solution with good intentions but the outcome is a series of negative consequences far worse than the original problem. This is a story all Sri Lankan policy-makers should keep in mind, especially the ones who keep proposing the banning of cattle slaughter. Every ban so far has backfired economically as well as politically. The only bans which haven’t backfired are the ones which haven’t been implemented.

The former president proposed a ban of carpentry sheds and chainsaws in a move to protect the environment which didn’t get implemented. Then a ban on glyphosate was proposed. Recently, in addition to many import bans, a ban on sachets and a ban on chemical fertiliser have been proposed. The impact of these bans have been like a boomerang, making colossal losses to our economy, the livelihoods of the people and the political capital of the government which could have been invested to implement much needed macroeconomic reforms.

The cattle slaughter ban is most likely going to bring similar consequences. The biggest impact being farmers having the burden to maintain animals past their productive prime. This will significantly impact the productivity of the dairy industry. In the very likes of the cobra effect in India. Undoubtedly the policy is implemented with good intentions but merely having good intentions isn’t sufficient to the harms and consequences of these actions. Our politicians cannot just run away from these bad consequences without taking responsibility, just because their intentions are good. Governing Sri Lanka is not like the high school prefects checking for the uncombed hair or the bags of fellow students. We are a democratic country where the actions of policies determine the well being of people’s lives. Just to mention “we did it with good intentions without realising the bad consequences” is not an acceptable excuse at all.

With the ban on cattle slaughter, and the topic gaining national attention, it is sufficient for milk farmers to accelerate the selling process of cattle for slaughter. This will be fueled by the fear that they will lose out by holding on to cows in future. In the meantime our dairy industry which is finding it difficult to manage even with very high tariff protection will find it further difficult to sustain. This will greatly affect national milk production and the livelihoods of dairy farmers.

In the liquid milk industry, the output of the cow depends on the feed, temperature and protection from infections. Better the feed and lower the temperature (which avoids sweating of the cow) increases the output. Sri Lankan dairy farmers are already finding it very difficult to provide better feed for cows. According to data, in 2019 Sri Lanka had about 323,490 milking cows but the average output is about four to five litres a day where the global average is about 28 litres per day. In countries like Israel the output per day is as high as 40 litres.

It is a clear indication of how difficult it is for our farmers to provide adequate water and food for milking cows. So after a certain period most farmers recover money by selling it for meat. Otherwise economically it doesn’t make sense to keep them at home just feeding. Another aspect that must be explored is the impact on natural forests. Most of Sri Lanka’s forest reserves are facing dangers by cattle farms, especially in villages bordering sanctuaries. Cattle farmers let the cows enter protected sanctuaries for feed which then affects the natural vegetation of herbivorous animals such as elephants. This too is one contributory factor for human-elephant conflict where elephants come out of forest areas looking for food as a result of depleting vegetation.

On the other hand the male cattle or bulls will have a very short life span as maintaining a bull without the ability to sell doesn’t make economic sense. So illegal cattle slaughtering will increase. Already Sri Lanka’s domestic liquid milk supply is about 373 million litres and the local demand is almost twice that, which is 700 million litres. So the milk powder imports will most likely go up and employment will be affected. According to the EDB (Export Development Board) data, there are about five large companies, 10 medium-scale companies, and more than 1,000 small enterprises and seven tanneries that produce 25 tonnes of leather daily which brings in about $ 550 million worth of foreign exchange annually. This decision to stop the slaughter of cattle will have a significant impact on these livelihoods and Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange revenue will take a hit, especially at a time where we are desperately in need of foreign exchange.

Keeping money matters aside, from an animal cruelty perspective, this regulation will discourage farmers to take care of their cattle and keep them well-fed. This decision will further distort the incentives to provide proper protection and shelter for cows due to a lack of financial incentives. This is best illustrated by the situation in India. A similar policy decision by the Indian government on banning the slaughter of cattle has been one factor leading to vehicle traffic, in some areas due to the overpopulation of cows and cows inhabiting roads. In some cases the government has had to spend extra resources, building cow care centres as many cows were being mistreated.

In policy decisions “good intentions” is not the litmus test to decide which policy should get the priority. It is the cost benefit analysis, causes consequences analysis and factual and evidence-based research that should decide the implementation of a policy. Intentions are important but bad consequences such as the “cobra effect” can only be avoided by sensible well thought economic thinking.

The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.