Sri Lanka Economy

Full Remarks : Eran Wickramaratne at the Economic Freedom Summit

The following is transcribed version of the remarks delivered by Hon. State Minister of Finance at the Advocata Economic Freedom Summit on 12 October 2017.   Minister spoke about the challenges in policy implementation with regards to economic liberalization.

Thank you. I want to thank Advocata for inviting me to be here this morning and I read with interest what Advocata is doing and also about the Fraser Institute and its work, particularly work relating to economic freedom. 

I am going to make some general comments and maybe also, quickly take up some of the issues that [previous speaker] Anushka raised so that we could think about it a little bit more deeply, I guess as your day progresses. 

As you know, in Sri Lanka our issue is that the government’s stake in the economy is very big-it’s much bigger than we think. Just to illustrate it, the advocates of the right to information and me being one, very vociferously talking about it while in the opposition, and supporting the present speaker even when he brought a private members bell to parliament to get the right to information, now sitting on the other side and trying to implement the right to information, still strongly believes in the principle of the right to information, but I also realize some of the practical issues that have also arisen. 

For example, I was having a discussion with some friends the other day and I was telling them you know you don’t realize when you ask some information, that I’d rather not give it you because if it is commercially sensitive information unlike in other countries in which you are monitoring, in Sri Lanka the state is so big in the economy that if I give you that information it will affect the state institutions’ competitiveness, vis-à-vis, those in the private sector that are competing. Now something that we have never really thought about. So we have the state which has commercial entities, maybe around 250 commercial entities in the economy. 

So our fiscal dynamics don’t really support this as we move more and more towards eliminating, or minimizing the fiscal deficit. so the government is trying to create an environment in which, because of its low savings in the economy of inviting investment and foreign investment, looking at ways and means of sharing the risk and also having structures like the PPP structures and models to optimize the return on state assets. 

Unfortunately, a few years ago we had this situation where there was enabling legislation to expropriate some assets. I must say that this was a very negative signal and detrimental to the economy. The present government does not agree with what happened and steps will be taken to repeal such legislation. 

On the area of property rights, and private property rights I would say, that these must be exercised with responsibility, particularly to the environment and to negative externalities and pollution and so forth. I also happen to be the United National Party Organizer for an electorate south of Colombo. One of the frequent complaints I have, and I’ll probably receive that complaint this morning because I chair the district development council at 10 o’clock this morning in the south of Colombo, is that the private companies are polluting the Bolgoda, the Kalu Ganga and all the waterways around there, so I think we have lots of issues regarding the security of property rights and we want to basically secure property rights, but secure property rights in a responsible way. In terms of monetary policy, our government has upheld the principle that the Central Bank must have its independence and can act independently. And we have recently made sure that the Central Bank has that right. I recently was in a pre budget discussion and some of the younger, if I can call them, business entrepreneurs, one of the things they told me was the Central Bank has made some comment about real estate and that it is dampening the real estate market. I quickly leaped to the Central Bank’s defence, and what I said was that the Central Bank has every right it make that statement independently of the government because we don’t certainly want to have an Asian crisis - like a  Malaysia and Singapore situation - where the Central Bank was subsequently accused of really not acting in time. So we have a central bank which is free to act independently. 

Exports have come down as you all know, drastically as a percentage of GDP over the last 15 years. Our government’s twin strategy is while attracting foreign investment is also to encourage trade, and particularly exports. A national export strategy has been formulated and much work has been done, and we are certainly looking at implementing some of those suggestions. 

In terms of revenue that comes to government, most of our revenues are collected at the border. Whether it is the taxes on duty or other taxes in terms of efficiency of collection, are collected at the border, so more that 50% of revenue is collected at the border. About 80% of all our revenue comes to three state institutions- the customs, the excise department, and the Inland Revenue department. 

So we must liberalize trade, but we have to do this in a measured way. We must bring in anti- dumping law to ensure fair trade practices. We will have to have a trade adjustment package as we adjust particularly while these domestic industries and entities, some of which will get hurt, in our move to liberalize further. We are under no illusion, and I think in Anushka’s remarks this morning he made it clear too about the imperfections of the market, ranging from information asymmetry, weaknesses in competition and also externalities. We want to have regulation, but hopefully, smart and unobtrusive legislation- institutional  reform and a change in the mindset.

I would like to conclude my brief remarks by actually taking the four issues that were raised and also to show the complexity when we deal with these issues.

For example, Anushka said that in a recent exchange at the Ministry of finance that the industry pointed out that there was a lack of skills and if they were to try to get those skills from overseas, the immigration department would refer that to a line ministry and then it would be months before a response comes, and once the response comes and the process is completed, you may or may not have the requirement for the skill you were actually seeking. So that’s a very practical problem and I asked them then and there, what do you think is the solution. And they immediately suggested a solution- they said can’t you give the discretion to the controller of immigration and emigration to make that decision. This was just about two weeks ago. I had a discussion with the controller of immigration and emigration and I told him that he will be soon getting the power to make that decision. Yesterday I followed it up, and it might require a cabinet approval and the suggestion that came from the industry was very simple: just annually decide what are the skill sets you need, give him a list of the skill sets and then let him make the decision on the spot, review the list from time to time depending on the needs of the economy. 

Now the reason I highlighted this was, as Anushka said, our issue often is not very large disagreements on what needs to be done, but is actually an inability to implement. I think if I were to pick one thing as a priority that needs to be done it is to focus on implementation.

Often, not often, every day almost every hour, I get phone calls saying that can we have a meeting, can we discuss something and I’ve got to the point that I just do not have time in my calendar time for meetings. This is my first meeting at 8.30 in the morning and my final meeting concludes at 12.30 tonight. And therefore we all need to do some sleeping. 

So I tell people please send us a note, just a very short note with what the problem is but also include in your notes, what you think the solution is going to be. Because if I could just pick it out and send it to the relevant point of implementation, that will greatly help them and assist them and then we can monitor or get some feedback as to why it can or can’t be actually done. So implementation is actually the key. So we are open, send us a note, remember that change does not always come from the top, change often comes from the bottom because that’s where people are under pressure to change.

He also referred to the three wheelers and I really liked that, because there is this very middle class idea that “my heavens this is a menace. Can we in some way limit it or get rid of it”. Three wheelers are here to stay. They are a very important part of our economy; they are a very important part of our community. But we all understand that they need to be regulated in some way because of the undesirable aspects of that industry, too. 

We are doing it in an interesting way. If a man falls from a coconut tree and gets injured, the three-wheeler was his ambulance. If there is a road accident, the three-wheeler is the ambulance.  Until very recently, the districts of Hambantota, Matara, Galle, Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara, until very recently there was no ambulance service that anybody could call. Unless you had private insurance and called your private hospital, you have virtually no ambulance. Today, we have a very modern ambulance service operating in all these cities; 93% of all telephone calls are answered within the first minute. And I’ve had a personal experience addressing a meeting like this, where somebody suddenly fell ill and I timed it, and it took 8 minutes for the ambulance to get that person from off the premises, on the road and to the hospital. When are rolling this out country wide, but before that it was the three-wheeler that was the ambulance. He talked about the three-wheeler being the last mile connectivity and I agree with it; I think it will always be the last mile connectivity. But the problem today is that it is not the last mile, it is the long mile. That’s the problem we are facing and that needs a change in government policy from getting off the highways and into public transport. Who cares about the high way? It is the politician that Anushka referred to, in his very expensive car. Or it is maybe some of you, who drive on the highway.   I’ve asked audiences on places I go, and ask them how many have actually driven in the highway - sometimes I get only 2 or 3 hands in an audience of 100 people. That’s the economic benefit that people have received in terms of transport. 

Of course, there are other benefits that come from a highway in terms of industry and the economy. So we need to improve our public transport and this something we need to persuade the government to do.

We have a lack of capital in the system: small savings and a lack of capital, often wondering how this could actually be handled. The government comes up with all kinds of schemes with some being elaborated on, but how do we actually overcome this problem? We are, if I could generalize, I know these generalizations are always dangerous, we are somewhat risk averse.

China is China, but China certainly does not have a risk-averse entrepreneurial culture. We are somewhat risk averse, whether it is the micro financing industry. They went with all good intentions to the North and the East and today the things they have to hear about their microfinance loans. I can understand both sides of the argument. On one side, that’s all they have- all they have, what they have is loan money and not capital. On the other hand, people that took the loans, but they actually needed some equity in their businesses even if they were female headed households but there was a lack of equity and we’ve gotten into a bind where loans have turned into equity without really intending them to turn into equity. The same is happening in small industries because of a lack of capital. 

He mentioned Sri Lankan airlines in the few comments he made on state owned enterprises. Clearly there is a problem with Sri Lankan airlines. I would like to ask the question, what should we do with it? What should we do with it? It doesn’t matter who is in charge. It doesn’t matter what the management team is. Fundamentally, is there a proposition for Sri Lankan airlines? Is there a business and economic proposition for Sri Lankan airlines in the current economic context of the airline industry? My own personal view is that there isn’t an economic and financial proposition. We need to be honest with ourselves. We need to then ask ourselves the question- how much are we willing to pay, if it brings some kind of national pride to fly the flag in the air? That’s the question we need to ask ourselves. That’s a political question, that’s not an economic and financial question. A political question needs a political answer and sometimes we have to make political decisions. But I would like to say this about Sri Lankan airlines. Sri Lankan airlines was sold eight A350 900 aircrafts-long flying, broad bodied aircrafts which didn’t fit its strategy. I think the sellers also have a responsibility, Airbus industries in France also has a responsibility. They should have taken note whether a small country like ours, with a small GDP, a small airline competing internationally should have actually been sold these aircrafts. Sellers and buyers both have responsibilities in an economy. And that is unfortunate that we have had to already pay nearly 100 million dollars, in basically terminating 4 aircrafts- still 4 aircrafts on our books today.

I would not take more time responding to some of the issues that came out of Anushka’s speech but I would like to say this. I think your conference is a very important conference. I’m particularly glad about the discussion topics that you have chosen. Exchange control liberalization, property rights, improving the bureaucracy, free movement of people and then labour market reforms. Certainly, I would look forward to the deliberations and the conclusions that you reach but please send us a note on implementation and not a report. Thank you.

Foreign investment necessary to wipe out poverty, economist says

Although fixing Sri Lanka’s economy is not easy, the model of foreign direct investment flows into the Asia Pacific region in countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and other countries was worth looking, according to Economics Prof. Prema Chandra Athukorala from the the Australian National University.  Speaking on the topic “Foreign Direct Investment and Manufacturing for Export and Emerging Trends and Opportunities for Sri Lanka” in Colombo last week at a forum organised by Advocata Institute, a Colombo-based free market think tank, he said his theory was based on research done by him on FDI inflows into those countries.

He said there is no panacea for economic development but there is one avenue which had been very effective in drawing direct foreign investment for promoting manufacture for exports.  To reduce poverty it was necessary to generate employment and the use of labour as a resource is necessary as one cannot start at the top end with sophisticated machinery without training unskilled labour. “Countries such as Malaysia Thailand Singapore and now Vietnam have used labour resources to eradicate poverty. We cannot ignore globalisation if we are to emulate developed countries such as Singapore to eradicate poverty and not remain like Myanmar.

Although some ministers have voiced their opinion to bypass manufacturing and to focus on the tourism sector, manufacturing was absolutely necessary to generate employment to eradicate poverty with unskilled workers. Foreign investment is also needed to generate employment and countries like Japan relies on foreign investment and the technical know how. It comes as a package with market linkages.”  Foreign investment is an important component for a country like Sri Lanka to start big industries like MAS Holdings, Brandix, Hirdaramani and others. “We need foreign investment to link up with the global market chain.” Referring to international brands such as Nike, he said different components of the shoe were produced in five countries including Vietnam and Sri Lanka.

Read the article on Sunday Times 

Economist urges more investment protection To drive global production sharing in Lanka

Prof. Prema-Chandra Athukorala

Prof. Prema-Chandra Athukorala

Sri Lanka should cut barriers to trade and investment to attract foreign investors into electronic component manufacture, top trade economist Prema-Chandra Athukorala said at a forum organised by Advocata Institute, a Colombo-based free market think tank.

This would form a natural progression from garment manufacture, on which the country is now heavily reliant. Sri Lanka's protectionist trade policy and erosion of confidence in the legal system are key factors that have discouraged investors resulting a decline in Sri Lanka's share in world manufacturing exports from around 2000, said Athukorala, who is a Professor of Economics at the Australian National University and a top consultant on international trade to a host of international organisations. The liberalisation undertaken in the late 1970s resulted in a notable increase in manufacturing exports and a steady increase in Sri Lanka's share in world manufacturing exports.

The reforms suffered a significant setback from about the early 2000: with the imposition of para-tariffs (taxes over and above normal tariffs), and a proliferation of ad-hoc duty exemptions and case-by-case duty adjustments. Sri Lanka has a bewildering number of para-tariffs including: Ports and Airports Development Levy (PAL), the Customs Surcharge (SUR), the Commodity Export Subsidy Scheme (Cess), and the Regional Infrastructure Development Levy (RIDL).

Sri Lanka needs to continue with reforms if it is to reap the benefits of export led growth. "That is why South Asian countries have not been able to join global production sharing like East Asia. Just having cheap labour alone is not enough." The global economic environment is changing with production sharing (Global Production Networks- GPN's) becoming the prime mover of cross border production and trade. GPN's are of two types, buyer driven and producer driven.

Read the entire article on Sunday Observer 

Driving Global Production Sharing In Sri Lanka

Australian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka Bryce Hutchesson and Prof. Prema-Chandra Athukorala

Australian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka Bryce Hutchesson and Prof. Prema-Chandra Athukorala

In the light of Ministry of Development Strategies and International Trade promising to present the Agency for Development (AfD) Bill to parliament, think tanks and economists lament that Sri Lanka has a long way to go in removal of para-tariffs (taxes over and above normal tariffs) and trade liberalisation to make Sri Lanka a haven for investments.

To attract Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) for Sri Lanka, its burgeoning Indian Ocean Island economy, should cut barriers to trade and investment, top trade economist Prof. Prema-Chandra Athukorala recently said at a forum organised by Advocata Institute, a Colombo-based free market think tank.

“This would form a natural progression from garment manufacture, on which the country is now heavily reliant. Sri Lanka’s protectionist trade policy and erosion of confidence in the legal system are key factors that have discouraged investors resulting in a decline in Sri Lanka’s share in world manufacturing exports from around 2000,” he said.

Athukorala is a Professor of Economics at Australian National University and a top consultant on international trade to a host of international organisations.

The liberalisation undertaken in the late 1970’s resulted in a notable increase in manufacturing exports and a steady increase in Sri Lanka’s share in world manufacturing exports. The reforms suffered a significant setback from about the early 2000: with the imposition of para-tariffs, and a proliferation of ad-hoc duty exemptions and case-by-case duty adjustments.

Sri Lanka has a bewildering number of para-tariffs including: Ports and Airports Development Levy (PAL), the Customs Surcharge (SUR), the Commodity Export Subsidy Scheme (Cess), and the Regional Infrastructure Development Levy (RIDL).

Sri Lanka needs to continue with reforms if it is to reap the benefits of export led growth. “That is why South Asian countries have not been able to join global production sharing like East Asia. Just having cheap labour alone is not enough.”

The global economic environment is changing with production sharing (Global Production Networks- GPN’s) becoming the prime mover of cross border production and trade. GPN’s are of two types, buyer driven and producer driven.

To date, most of the Sri Lanka’s FDI is in Buyer driven GPNs where a buyer (usually a retailer) buys finished goods. Although common in industries such as garments and footwear, globally buyer driven GPN’s formed only 12 per cent of world manufacturing trade (in 2012-13), and its share is declining.

Producer driven GPNs are where an end producer assembles the final product from components made in several locations. This takes place in vertically integrated industries such as electronics, medical devices and cars. Producer driven GPN’s accounted for 51.1 per cent of world manufacturing trade in 2012-3 and its share is growing; this is the trend Sri Lanka needs to tap into, according to Prof. Athukorala.

Successful integration of the manufacturing sector into producer driven GPN’s has played a key role in employment generation and poverty reduction in China and other high-performing East Asian countries.

The determinants of a country’s success in joining global production networks are the availability of trainable labour, proactive investment promotion and service link costs, according to the economist. He emphasised that while the importance of infrastructure and political stability to reduce link costs are often spoken about, Sri Lanka needs to focus on property rights protection, ease of enforcing contracts and a liberal trade and investment policy to attract FDI.

Read the entire article on The Sunday Leader

Joining producer-driven GPNs key to revive exports: Top Economist

Sri Lanka lags far behind the East-Asian countries in reaping gains in exports as it has failed to join producer-driven Global Production Networks (GPNs) despite the country being either equally or better placed than countries like Thailand and Malaysia, a top academic lamented last week.

Delivering a public lecture on FDI and Manufacturing for Export: Emerging Patterns and Opportunities for Sri Lanka, renowned-Economist Professor Premachandra Athukorala said that in the past, although the country did well in joining buyer-driven GPNs with heavy concentration in apparel exports, it fell short of potential in gaining momentum in joining the producer-driven GPNs, where FDI played a key role.

“There is strong evidence that Sri Lanka missed the opportunity of becoming an assembly centre within producer driven GPN because of political instability and uncertainty,” Athukorala said.

Producer-driven GPNs are common in vertically-integrated global industries such as electronics, electrical goods, automobiles, scientific and medical devices with the ‘Lead firm’ being the manufacturing Multinational Enterprise. The bulk of global production sharing takes place through intra-firm linkages within MNE network rather than in an arms-length manner.

“Successful integration of the manufacturing sector into production networks, in particular producer-driven GPNs, have played a key role in employment generation and poverty reduction in China and other high-performing East Asian countries,” Prof. Athukorale said.
He pointed out that based on 2013 statistics on the total share of GPN products in manufacturing exports, Sri Lanka’s producer-driven GPN stood at a low of 8.5% while buyer-driven GPNs formed a majority of 67.2%.

Meanwhile, Prof. Athukorale said Sri Lanka’s immediate policy priority should be to restore policy emphasis on export-oriented industrialisation, set up institutional safeguards to avert further backsliding from reforms, and continue with implementing the incomplete reform agenda.

“The Sri Lankan experience highlights the complementary role of investment liberalization for exploiting the potential gains from trade liberalization. Trade liberalization increased the potential returns to investment by capitalizing on a country’s comparative advantage, while liberalization of foreign investments permitted international firms to take advantage of such profit opportunities,” he highlighted.

He further emphasized that the island now needs to formulate proactive well-targetted policies to attract foreign investors and not solely rely on roadshows as attracting a big international player has ‘demonstration’ effect on others –the so-called herd-mentality in global industries.

FTAs: Good, bad and ugly

This newspaper, in an article titled 'FDI lowest in 10 years' which appeared in its columns on Saturday, quoting an economist said that free trade zones (FTZs) and not free trade agreements (FTAs) were the road to boost exports.


Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala, Professor of Economics, Australian National University, speaking at a function in Colombo on Thursday organized by Advocata Institute, a local think tank, said global studies had shown that vis-à-vis enhancing exports, only 10% of the concessions offered by FTAs have been utilized in this regard.
With Sri Lanka planning to broaden its current FTA with India to an Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA), due to space constraints, this editorial will only focus on FTAs.


Meanwhile, as per Athukorala's lecture, the balance 90% offered as concessions under FTAs has proved to be only theoretical, with no practical value to enhance exports. He said that the stumbling block was the rules of origin (ROO) under FTAs.
In Sri Lanka's case, the island currently has two FTAs, one with India as aforesaid and the other with Pakistan. Both these agreements are over a decade old.


Athukorala, citing an example of the ROO and its impediment to boost exports vis-à-vis the Sri Lanka context said that he spoke to a joss sticks manufacturer at Mawanella the other day. This manufacturer said that he cannot export joss sticks to India by trying to avail himself of the concessions to which exporters are reportedly entitled to under the Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) because of India's stringent ROO. As a key component in the manufacture of joss sticks is imported from India it disqualifies this manufacturer from exporting to India under the ILFTA duty concessionary umbrella because of this ROO law.

Read the entire article on Ceylon Today 

Rationalise tariff system to liberalise trade: renowned economist

Sri Lanka’s immediate policy priority should be to restore policy emphasis on export-oriented industrialisation, set up institutional safeguards to avoid further backsliding from reforms and continue with implementing the incomplete reform agenda, senior economist Prof. Premachandra Athukorala said.

Delivering a lecture titled ‘FDI and Manufacturing for Export: Emerging Global Patterns and Opportunities for Sri Lanka’, organised by the think tank Advocta Institute, Prof. Athukorala said Sri Lanka failed to capture the full benefits of trade and investment liberalisation due to the protracted war that undermined the investment climate and macroeconomic stability and that instead of formulating a new model from scratch the Government must learn from the past.

“We have achieved a lot under a lot of constraints - particularly political instability and policy uncertainty. Now that peace is here, the Government has to try and learn from our past instead of thinking about a new model. I think we have a model that has been tested very well. It can generate more benefits to the country if the Government has a very focused plan to continue with this strategy,” he said.

Trade and investment policy reforms initiated in the late 1970s, said Prof. Athukorala, set the stage for globally integrating the Sri Lankan manufacturing sector with Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) playing a pivotal role.

The Sri Lankan experience highlights the complementary role of investment liberalisation for exploiting the potential gains from trade liberalisation, said Prof. Athukorala, adding that trade liberalisation increased the potential returns to investment by capitalising on a country’s comparative advantage, while liberalisation of foreign investments permitted international firms to take advantage of such profit opportunities.

Responding to a question on Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) at the Q&A session that followed the lecture, moderated by Chief Economist at the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Anushka Wijesinha, Prof. Athukorala said that though they are called FTAs they are actually not free trade.

“The term FTA is a misnomer,” he said, adding that FTAs have very low utilisation.

“I consider it a political gimmick. The admin compliance costs are too much,” he said.

He suggested that what Sri Lanka needed to focus on instead was the rationalisation of the trade tariff system in order to liberalise trade.

“What is needed is to rationalise the tariff system. People think that higher tariff means more revenue for the Government, which is not the case. There is evidence to suggest that a more uniform, lower tariff system can generate more government revenue simply because the system becomes much more transparent,” said Prof. Athukorala.

Cascading tariffs can be a breeding ground for corruption, warned Prof. Athukorala, adding that if the tariff regime was low and uniform, it competed against smuggling and could improve Government revenue.

Policy inconsistency can also be a killer, said Prof. Athukorala, pointing out that last year saw the lowest FDI levels in history.

The Board of Investment (BOI) was relegated under the last regime and investments were done on a political basis, he charged.

Prof. Athukorala suggested that Sri Lanka market itself internationally to potential FDIs by sharing its success stories and using successful entrepreneurs in proactive investment promotion campaigns.

Read the article on Daily FT

Exploding myth of ‘Ceylon Tea’

BogawantalawaValley_10d.jpg

Primary Industries Minister Daya Gamage exploded the myth surrounding the "Ceylon Tea" brand name.
Speaking at the Spices and Allied Products Producers' and Traders' Association (SAPPTA) Annual General Meeting in Colombo on Friday, he said that the term was coined by British planters.


But statistics showed that only 1% of the British consumer currently opted for ' Ceylon Tea'. The rest go for other brands. Nonetheless, Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala, Professor of Economics, Australian National University, addressing a seminar in Colombo said that he was domiciled in Canberra where his neighbours consume a very popular tea marketed by a major private firm in Colombo".
"They were unaware that this was in fact what's known as 'Ceylon Tea', said Athukorala. The secret of this company's success was its packaging, he said. Gamage pooh-poohed the island's packaging standards saying that Vietnam's, Thailand's and China's packaging were far superior to that of Sri Lanka.

Read the article on Ceylon Today

Sri Lanka needs stable liberal policies, property rights, to get export oriented FDI: economist

ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka should have a stable liberal policy framework with free trade and strong property rights to draw foreign direct investors who will build East Asian-style global production networks, a top trade economist has said.

To attract foreign investors into merchandise exports, concurrent trade and investment liberalisation is needed, Prema-Chandra Athukorala, professor of economics at Australia National University's Crawford School of Public Policy, said in Colombo.

Read the entire article on Economy Next 

FDI lowest in 10 years

Political stability and policy consistency were imperative to attract foreign investments, an economist said.
Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala, Professor of Economics, Australian National University, speaking at a function in Colombo Thursday said Sri Lanka foreign direct investments (FDI)inflows to Sri Lanka were the lowest on record last year .
Total FDI receipts last year, excluding foreign loans, amounted to US$ 681 million, down from the previous year's (2014) figure of $ 894 million (excluding foreign loans). Last year Sri Lanka held two major elections, the Presidential Election on 8 January, 2015 and the Parliamentary Election of 17 August, 2015.


Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Governor Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy said earlier that FDI in the first half (1H) of the year was poor, but was looking up in the 2H of the year. According to CBSL, FDI in the first five months of the year, including foreign loans, amounted to a mere $ 164.5 million, down 52.5% year-on-year compared to last year's commensurate figure of $ 346.4 million.
The Sri Lanka's Board of Investment signed agreements for foreign direct investments worth an estimated 1.6 billion US dollars in 2015, up slightly from last year, according to the island's investment promotion agency.
When this reporter asked Athukorala whether it's possible to have policy consistency in a democracy like Sri Lanka, where the island has to go to the polls once in five years, Athukorala said that it was possible, and gave as examples the island's free trade zones (FTZs) established after 1977, as an example of bipartisanship, where no steps have been taken to dismantle FTZs despite 40 years after their establishment, by successive governments.


FTZs, with the concessions offered to investors, are conduits to attract foreign investments.
Athukorala further said that studies have shown that FTZs, and not free trade agreements (FTAs), boost exports. The 'Achilles' Heel' in FTAs is their subtle rules of origin (ROO), he said. Athukorala said that he spoke to a joss sticks manufacturer at Mawanella the other day.
This manufacturer said that he cannot export joss sticks to India by trying to avail himself of the concessions to which exporters are reportedly entitled to exporters under the existing Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) because of India's stringent ROO. A key component in the manufacture of joss sticks disqualifies this manufacturer from exporting to India under the ILFTA duty concessionary umbrella.

Read the entire article on Ceylon Today 

All it takes is Barber’s skills – Expert

The story that highly honed skills are required for manufacture of high value exports such as computers is a myth, an economist said.


Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala, Professor of Economics, Australian National University, speaking at a function in Colombo on Thursday (18 August) said that in 1968, when Singapore, with an unemployment rate of 15%, opened up its economy for electronics investments, the country's Finance Minister had said... ...that the skills required for a woman engaging in computer manufacture, should be akin to that of a barber, to do the job.


And Singapore has proved it by being a computer hub today. "In a labour abundant country, Singapore has become one of the richest countries," said Athukorala. Singapore has proved that this so called deficiency of a "skills barrier" is a myth, he said.
He said that similarly, what Sri Lanka needs to grow its economy is not services such as tourism, but manufacturing. Only manufacturing can absorb unskilled workers and the island has a large pool of unskilled labour, said Athukorala.
The BoI is not going in the hinterland to tap them for employment potential and as a result many companies are paying incentives to their workers to recruit labour, he said. Though they talk of the lack of human capital in the island, manufacturers don't believe that lie, said Athukorala.


Nonetheless, there is a company in the outskirts servicing the global automotive industry, which has an annual turnover of US$ 45 million, whilst employing a thousand, he said. There is another company at Badalgama in the Wayamba Province which manufactures electronic sensors, while providing employment to 600, said Athukorala.
Industrialization is the pivot for employment generation and thereby poverty reduction, he said. An example is China which has reduced poverty from 40% to 9% through industrialization, he said. Sixty eight per cent of the world production comes from developing countries, he said.


Athukorale said that while China is involved in labour intensive electronic assembly industries, Sri Lanka's labour was better than that in Thailand, but because the latter has ventured in to high tech manufacture, their labour grade per capita annual income is US$ 500 per capita per mensem, whereas the island's lowly garment sector worker earns a mere $ 100.
He said that though Sri Lanka lost large electronic giants such as Harris Corporation and Microsoft due to the July 1983 disturbances, it's still home to middle level electronics firms which employ an average of 400 employees each in their workplaces, providing a total employment of 20,000. Sri Lanka's trade regime is comparable to that of Malaysia but what is needed is the rationalization of tariffs, said Athukorala. The seminar was organized by Advocata Institute, a local think tank. 

Read The article on Ceylon Today 

 

Deshal de Mel delivers lecture on What's wrong with the Sri Lankan economy

Deshal de Mel delivering the lecture organized by Advocata Institute

Deshal de Mel delivering the lecture organized by Advocata Institute

Senior economist at Hayleys Group, Deshal de Mel gave the inaugural lecture on a public lecture series organized by Advocata Institute last month.

A crowd of more than 200 people attended the lecture which concluded with an engaging Q&A session moderated by  Shiran Fernando,  an economist attached to Frontier Research. 

Delivering the lecture, Deshal said that the biggest risk to the Sri Lankan economy is the ability to meet the external debt repayments. Until about 2005, Sri Lanka had very easy access to long term finance said Deshal, who went on to explain that with the elevation of the country to a middle income status country, Sri Lanka lost access to this low-interest rate loans that allowed the government to maintain a very large government in terms of employees, and activities in the economy as well as accumulate a huge amount of debt.

Continuous deficits that the government keep running and the accumulated debt is one of the key reasons for macroeconomic instability explained Deshal.  High government borrowing crowds out the private investment and vulnerable to episodes of monetary expansion leading to inflation the economist said.   

"Big Government" policies including the maintaining of loss-making state enterprises, large public sector and targeted subsidies and transfers have all resulted in the deficit that the government tries to bridge by borrowing and indirect taxation, which creates further distortions according to Deshal de Mel.

The large government is not just fiscally not affordable, but also is a consumer of scarce resources explained the economist.  "The state owns large quantum of land, and employs about 17% of the entire labour force" all consuming economic resources whilst the 245 odd State owned enterprises employs a further 220,000 people. 



Deshal believes that there is a role for the government in addressing wealth inequalities resulting from unequal opportunities and for state intervention when markets fail through smart unobtrusive regulation. However, he says that the big government policies have not helped in sectors where state intervention is generally accepted, for example in Education where outcomes indicate that only around 50% of students pass science related subjects.

Resources tied up in unproductive sectors such as Agriculture  represents another problem Deshal explained. The Agricultural sector accounts for a massive 30% of labour force, but only accounts for 9% of GDP.  The protectionist policies with the stated aim of 'protect' farmers has resulted in resources being tied up in lower value domestic agriculture instead of utilizing the full resource pool of agricultural land, farmers and other resources into global value chains and higher value agriculture.

Sri Lanka has also failed to attract export oriented Foreign Direct Investment (FDIs) making use of it's strategic location Deshal said and emphasized on a proactive approach to attracting FDIs such as targeting multinationals with operations in southern India to set up Shop in Sri Lanka.

In order to fix the Sri Lankan economy, Deshal recommends that the first thing to do is to rationalize government expenditure. Cutting back on size, and particularly state owned enterprises. Enhancing government revenue through simplification of taxes and relying on direct taxes.  He also emphasize the need to focus on education, ensuring an environment of more private participation in the supply of education and gradually decreasing trade and domestic protectionism as possible ways of remedying the problems in the Sri Lankan economy.

While acknowledging the political realities and difficulties in bringing about economic reform, Deshal said that a possible starting point is reforming State Owned Enterprises, where there is increasing awareness of it's ill-effects. 

Advocata's research report on SOEs are found on our research section.  Advocata Institute organizes monthly lectures focused on the broad theme of 'fixing the Sri Lankan economy'. 

full slide deck from the lecture is available below.   See more articles on the event .  Deshal was speaking in his private capacity as an economist. 

On LBO : Deshal explains what's wrong with Sri Lanka's economy

Aug 01, 2016 (LBO) – Sri Lanka’s most urgent economic risk is external debt sustainability and it has been one driving factor behind macroeconomic volatility in the country, a young economist said.

Deshal de Mel delivering a public lecture hosted by the think tank Advocata Institute said the legacy of access to long term concessional debt and easy repayment schemes eventually enabled the country to build up a large public sector and debt burden.

“Post 2007 requirement to tap into global capital markets due to less access to concessional borrowings is one major reason,” de Mel said.

“Shorter repayment tenors and higher rates of interest – makes it essential to channel borrowings into remunerative investments.”

De Mel said high government borrowing levels influenced higher interest rates and crowded out private investment.

He said recent balance of payments weakness has been largely influenced by external debt repayments with implications for rupee depreciation.

“At other times fiscal expansion drives imports, contributing to Balance of Payments stress and rupee depreciation,” Mel said.

“Episodes of inflation in the past influenced by Central Bank’s accommodative monetary policy to ease government debt servicing.”

Financing the current deficit requires high levels of indirect taxation and it also affects consumer freedom and high import taxes restrict domestic competition.

As per statistics, government revenue has improved in first half of 2016 but sustained improvement needs a shift to direct taxes from regressive indirect taxes, he said

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