charindra chandrasena 00:00 Hi Dana. Dhananath Fernando 00:03 Hi, Shari. charindra chandrasena 00:04 So we meet again. Again, but we have a new member today, Dhananath Fernando 00:10 and you can see charindra chandrasena 00:11 yes, a new member who who is bringing colour to the show, both literally and figuratively. Dhananath Fernando 00:19 Absolutely, bringing the Advocata colours. charindra chandrasena 00:22 That too, no. You plan, you plan and won, no? Tirani Kulathunge 00:26 Definitely charindra chandrasena 00:27 loyal, loyal. Loyal, Dhananath Fernando 00:29 exactly. That's how we bring the Advocata theme into yeah. How charindra chandrasena 00:33 are you, Trini? Tirani Kulathunge 00:34 I'm good. I'm good. Great to be here. charindra chandrasena 00:36 Great to be here. Yeah, great to have you as well. So as I said, literally and figuratively, we will add some colour to the show today. And also, before starting, I had to sort of make mention of the fact that now this is not an interview, Dana. This is a podcast. So this is where all of us sort of you know share ideas and and talk and so you know if anybody thinks it's an interview I think it's important to sort of get that distinction correctly that this is not a traditional Q and A interview where I sit here and I ask questions from you and you and then you answer, and then you're ready for the next question, and that kind of format. This is where all of us are talking, like around a dinner table. Yeah, for the Dhananath Fernando 01:29 for the for the clarification of some of our viewers, because it's not a yeah. Let let let also Charinda speak on his on his views. That's what I'm trying to say without saying. Please, I love him to speak his speak his mind and brain. Give me charindra chandrasena 01:46 give me my soapbox. But yeah, so to start off today, the the hot hot news is that the rupee has hit 300 to the dollar for the first time in just over a year. So in Sri Lanka, there is a tendency for this to cause like alarm bells. Oh my God! Rupee has gone up. Rupee la oprama nevela. Rupee negala na rupia la behala. What is going to happen to Dhananath Fernando 02:28 us? charindra chandrasena 02:29 SMS alerts. SMS alerts. All of that, right? But of course, the other side of it is that if you are an exporter, you are celebrating as well, right? So just just overall, Dana, what what do you what do you make of this? That it is the first time in one year that it has gone past the 300 mark. What does that say about the economy? Dhananath Fernando 02:53 It's basic, Chare, because what we need to understand how this works. I would like to give a framework for everyone to think about it because ultimately, exchange rate is the price of the dollar. It's like you go to the you go to the grocery store and buy like a cake of soap. The same way, imagine the grocery store was like hanging with $1 note. How much that you have to pay to buy that dollar note? The challenge is when the dollars become scarce. Of course, the price starts going up, and of course, at the same time, on the other side, if it's from the demand side, if more people are going and asking for more and more dollars, of course, the shopkeeper will increase the price because otherwise, he will not have enough supply to keep dollars, so where the demand comes from, and where the supply comes from. Supply is mainly we have about three to four channels remittances. Then we have exports. Then we have tourism, which is also part of exports, service exports, or the grants or any loan or something that comes up, but the demand mainly comes from two fronts. One is the imports; importers are going and buy buying dollars, and the other one is imports. Then the second one is I lost my train of thoughts. The central bank, the other party that who is going to buy dollars is the central bank, and when the central bank buys dollars, you call it reserves. How they buy dollars from the rupees that they can create easily without any restriction. So in this case, there's a constant like there's dollars coming in as with the channel, so if the exports, if the remittances is not picking up, and at the same time, if the central bank also buying dollars aggressively, either one thing has to happen: either you have to increase the, I mean, the dollar, the rupee has to depreciate, or the dollar price has. To go up, or else interest rates should go up because when the interest rates are higher, people are less willing to spend more money because instead of spending them, they will go and save. So when they are not spending, means the dollar demand or like import demand will automatically come down because then they will not buy the computer, tab, or the phone. So that's what has happened because central bank is also it's not their dollars are scarce. Of course, dollars are scarce in the context of central bank also need to aggressively buy dollars to build up the reserves. So there's a slight depreciation. I think it's normal. I mean, the impact for personal finances would be now. This is like also if you have dollar savings. It's like a increasing the interest rate that it's. I mean, it's appreciate not really in value, but in terms of rupees, it has a appreciation. Of course, the exporters, as you said, will benefit, and the importers will sometimes rush to buy more dollars. The vehicle prices will go up if it continues. Some of the import items will continue. So as a result, the demand will also come down. Like because let's say three rupee, five rupee difference is basically the vehicle prices will go up. If it's like a $50,000 vehicle, you can do the maths: 50,000 into five rupees, 250 rupees, 250,000 rupees. It should go up. So those were the implications, charindra chandrasena 06:25 right? So generally, now you're saying at the moment that doesn't really make any commentary on the economy as a whole, right? Dhananath Fernando 06:35 Not really. I mean, you people, unfortunately, Jari, that's. But we have been saying also people measure the economy by the either the stock market, which is not a bad. I mean, you can, but you need to. I mean, in charindra chandrasena 06:48 Sri Lanka, the stock market is such a small component. Absolutely. At least in say a developed country, you can get a fair idea about what the economy is doing based on the stock market. But in Sri Lanka, you really can't. Dhananath Fernando 07:01 Yeah, that's that's one, and also the currency. I mean, currency depreciates; it appreciates. You remember, it went to 360, came to 285, and if the central bank doesn't buy dollars, actually, it can appreciate. That's what I said. It depends on which tool or which mechanism. If the central bank says, "No, I'm not buying dollars, the currency will actually start appreciating. But if the central bank aggressively wants to buy to build reserves because there's $1 payment that is coming up or something like that, the currency will depreciate. So it's a it's a dynamic thing. It's better that you allow it to depreciate, appreciate to an extent rather than trying to hold it. Because if you're trying to hold it, you are basically distorting the. I mean, in a way, trying to distort the market, so yeah. But you know, what do what do you think about the impact on the poor people? Because that's one of the concerns generally, the social safety nets and all that. How how would it reflect in them, or what is like the sentiment in the society in your view when the dollar appreciate depreciate? Tirani Kulathunge 07:59 On that front, of course, I can't really say I have a lot to comment on that, because one is that, let's say, if I was ultra poor or let's say on the poor end of things, I really do not have the expectation to buy a lot of things, let's say from e-commerce or from Timu or from Alibaba, where I have to directly negotiate or like use dollars, right? But if it really impacts the food prices or if it impacts the car, I mean electricity on those fronts, then okay, there's an issue, right? But that also means whether are we using dollars to purchase oil and whether that reflects the you know purchasing power on the lower bottom half of the country, right? So, I wouldn't say that because of this dynamic, there's a first order change or second order change because of it, but something to keep look at. Yeah, Dhananath Fernando 08:56 it's an interesting point because Shari, if the if the rupee, as you know, the electricity prices. This formula has a that exchange rate is one variable. So that's the other side of it. charindra chandrasena 09:07 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 09:07 Exchange rate is one variable, and for example, there's a lot of other costing even the food imports. Let's say onion, the the purni sambhar that we are going to import. So all that has to adjust accordingly, so then the prices will have an impact. But also, it's an indication that you contract the demand because when it becomes expensive, people, I mean, then you buy less of it, and you think of alternatives. So that's how the economy works, including electricity and other utilities, which has an upstream effect on the economy. So I think people. I mean, as long as it's not a drastic change, like you cannot go from like 300 to 400. Yeah, it's a gradual change. People adjust because they have time to adjust because they know. Okay, I'm getting a signal. Dollars ask. So I have to look for already to do the pricing all in in in accordance with that. charindra chandrasena 10:06 Right. Another interesting news that came out yesterday was that Jaffna has been named number two on the list of places to visit in 2020 26 by Lonely Planet. So, Lonely Planet, that's a pretty prestigious ranking. But what I found interesting about this is that some of the comments on social media about this were not really celebrating it. It was more about ridiculing it. Like, no, is it? I didn't see that. Yeah, in the sense that, okay, what is there in Jaffna to see so much, right? And I don't think a lot of places in this country would have that reaction. So I was quite intrigued why that reaction was, and then I thought, is it because if you if you leave the whole race angle aside, right? I'm also wondering: is it because Jaffna still doesn't feel like it's fully integrated into the Sri Lankan national economy? Dhananath Fernando 11:16 Do you mean to say that Jaffna has include? I mean, whether Jaffrays merged enough to the Sri Lanka. So that that's charindra chandrasena 11:25 my question to you about whether you have an insight on this, because I'm wondering whether that sentiment comes. I don't want to assume that it comes from a place of bigotry. I am wondering if there's a a less sinister reason for it, and whether that reason is that Jaffna still doesn't feel like it's fully integrated into the economy. Because the fact of the matter is that if Jaffna's tourism goes up, if it develops, the tourism income from that doesn't go to Jaffna; it comes to the national economy. But and I'm wondering why, when any part of the country is listed on a on a national sorry international ranking, you are usually celebrating on social media, you see jubilation. Here, I saw some comments about okay, why Jaffna? What does what is Lonely Planet smoking? Dhananath Fernando 12:32 Right, that kind of charindra chandrasena 12:33 vibe. So I want I don't want to assume it's the sinister reason. I want to assume that it's a more a less harmful and a more sort of a practical reason, if that if I can use that. Do you this answers the question? Is this do you feel like Jaffna is fully integrated into the national economy? Dhananath Fernando 12:58 I would say not yet, because for a couple of reasons, one is the the logistically connection was quite poor one side. Then probably on the land and property rights front, it's still not integrated properly, and also even if you look at our ocean resources, it's not integrated adequately. That's that's that's one side. I think the Jaffna, and also we are underutilizing the potential because of poor connectivity with India on the other side. Because Jaffna is closer to India, especially the growing states of India, if they have that, there was a conversation about a ferry service. I'm not sure whether it's actually operational at the moment, and there was the conversation about the airport, Jaffna Airport, because that could have basically activated the economic activity drastically, and in a way, the land available in Jaffna to utilise for production and all that. Even I think this government had an initiative to, in terms of the coconut, because there was a conversation about coconut. No, no coconut. I mean, not enough coconut for coconut sambal and all that. So they declared a lot of areas in you know in for coconut cultivation in Jaffna, and also I think still there is a capital expenditure allowance for companies who are investing in Northern Ireland, if I remember right, subject to correction and some tax concessions because then to improve the economy economic activity. So I don't think it's connected for poor logistics, for poor connectivity with India, and also because of poor penetration in like other other like the banking, there's Nara branches and all that, but I think it's still not fully integrated. There was massive potential in Jaffna, and I don't know why people. I really didn't. I mean, I couldn't. I I didn't. The social media post, but probably people may not aware that what the tourism sentiment also, no, because you may think there's nothing in Jaffna. Of course, there lot can be improved, but it's a culturally, it is an excellent opportunity for others. I mean, for for a Sri Lankan, you may be wondering sometimes what's in all, but for someone who hasn't seen all, it's an excellent opportunity. I think it charindra chandrasena 15:28 may also be a simple case of Jaffar not having mountains, or I mean, real major beach is Kashmiri is there, but not the kind of beaches that you get in the in down south or the east coast, so it could be an innocent reason like that. But I'm just trying to drill down. I think the reason Tirani Kulathunge 15:47 is actually because of its rich culture and traditions that they have. So the coal wills and how there are stories around it. I think most that's the most reason why Japan is being promoted comparatively to down south. Let's say why is down south not in Lonely Planet or something? But I think that's the rationale behind that. Dhananath Fernando 16:05 And also the I mean, if by the way that we like it or not, also the he's the comeback. No, there there was a terrorist like the challenge was there, and now people also want to see after 20 years how people have like you know how the transformation Takes place, so I think that is that is another aspect. Yeah, charindra chandrasena 16:25 it has a stronger story than most. Exactly, it has a very strong. It has a Dhananath Fernando 16:29 stronger story, and I think we don't have people who are interested charindra chandrasena 16:32 in, and that's what some people don't realise that tourists are also interested in narratives and stories and background and history, and they are not coming purely for beaches and mountains and or partying, as is the case with Allah. Allah is almost everybody who goes there is looking for a good party, and parts of the the south also like that. Whereas the tourists who go to Kandy would have a different story, but of course they would have the mountains. So they say you are either a beach person or a mountain person, right? So I suppose very varied Dhananath Fernando 17:09 point, Jari, because I mean you exactly we should not have we should not judge tourists by our preferences. charindra chandrasena 17:16 Exactly. Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 17:17 Because you know different people travel for different reasons. Yeah. Some people go for museums. Some may not. So just because you don't like museums doesn't mean the others do not like museums. So in Jaffna there is something that we do not know that may be interesting for people and the international, you know, travelling community. So I think we have to embrace that. Yeah, of course. And even the beaches and that Nila Valley too. That stretch is, I mean, even even if you're looking for beaches and things like that, it's still an excellent destination. So so you you are spot on. You should not judge charindra chandrasena 17:52 them Dhananath Fernando 17:52 by it has to be a mountain or a or a beach. charindra chandrasena 17:56 Have you guys done any sort of research on? But generally, yeah. How how do you see like the because I think the I was Tirani Kulathunge 18:03 thinking around the fact that Lonely Panet was saying that this will be good in 2026 and not now, right? I was just thinking around it like are we really equipped to you know with the demand that's going to be I mean with this post of course it's creating demand right people are interested in this, but is Jaffna really ready for that income? Is something that I was thinking about. Like, okay, that dynamic come in. What are the things that you are going to do? But that also translates to whether Jaffna is business ready, right? Whether economic activity is ready to perform for that, and I was thinking again. Now, obviously, this government has done a programme like Himikom, where they distributed land and all that. But there are plenty of land that's still stuck under, let's say, either on mines, or it's still the deeds are not even properly declared on these lands, right? It's deedless to be precise. So there are programmes in Sri Lanka like Bimsave where land heightling can be used, but since it's not accelerated, also ownership of land is also not clearly defined. So given that land is something foundational for a business, right? For business to thrive on, and if you don't have that clearly, again another issue, and land is just number one, right? So one second. So do you mean that the Dhananath Fernando 19:29 Jaffna, in particular, after the war, the land titling or like the ownership of the land is fairly unclear compared to other parts of the country? Do you have any numbers? I mean, Tirani Kulathunge 19:38 not numbers per se, but with the KIIs, the interviews that I had with the government authorities, that I from them only I understood that there's some negligence, let's say, because their priorities more towards the western province and other centrals and all that, right? Where economic activity is performing, but charindra chandrasena 19:59 and the the. Just go into the economic impact of the lack of land, or the lack of land title-not lack of land. How do you invest the money you have, the income you have, the profits you get, the wealth that you Generate one major thing that you invest in, and you can come in here is in land. A lot of people, if they have the title, then they can whether they use it for agriculture, if they or they use it for some sort of construction. If they have the title, it just becomes so much simpler for them. Correct. Tirani Kulathunge 20:43 Yes, very much easier. The transaction is quicker. There you go. Right. charindra chandrasena 20:46 So if you're doing it on somebody else's land or land that you don't have title for, you wouldn't commit to it in the same way. Tirani Kulathunge 20:55 Correct. charindra chandrasena 20:55 Right. So then that investment would go elsewhere. Tirani Kulathunge 20:59 Yes. charindra chandrasena 20:59 And where that would go, we don't know. Dhananath Fernando 21:01 Yeah, Tirani Kulathunge 21:02 this again translate whether you know a foreign business person wants to come and do business in Sri Lanka. Exactly. Tirani Kulathunge 21:08 If I mean, if Sri Lankans can't have access to land, how could a foreigner do something about it, right? charindra chandrasena 21:14 Exactly. Tirani Kulathunge 21:15 So that's something. I Dhananath Fernando 21:16 think the other point is, Shari. Now, in terms of economics, since you asked that whether we are integrated enough. The other point is actually Jaffna has in that case the massive potential than any other part because if we can clear that land, you know, if you try to do something in Colombo, it would be very difficult because you know already urbanised and all that. But of course, the Jaffna, the challenge is the logistically like the distance to the port. But in other sort of investments since it's like not very populated. One thing. Second thing is you have a massive diaspora community who has money, who has also network and know-how. It's just a matter of creating that narrative that why you should come back and invest, right? Because charindra chandrasena 21:58 I went to Jaffna a few years ago, okay, and by that time it was already certainly more than 10 years after the end of the war, and it there was development, but I couldn't help feeling that there could have been more, you know, with a focus initiative, and and and that's why I feel Dana and Tirani that governments maybe also to blame for this that it Jaffna has not been fully integrated and and I think you back this up but it doesn't really like it's fully integrated into the national economy because if it was it should benefit from the South Indian growth, and you know this better than me. South India is the growth hub. North India is actually struggling comparatively, so South India is basically carrying most of the burden in terms of the growth. So we haven't. Jaffna hasn't benefited. I mean, it hasn't benefited visibly from that. Correct. Then secondly, the fact that that diaspora that you were talking about, yeah, the remittances are coming, but where are the remittances then? You know, going into and then maybe the lack of land title is one reason for the lack of investment on that front, as you said. But is there also sort of a drug issue as well? There, Dhananath Fernando 23:34 yeah, definitely. Yes, I'll come to the remittances. But the important point is, Shari, now on to allow that business system to work. Now, if you look at Colombo, why it is? I mean, comparatively developed is because of the port. So the airport and the port, Jaffna port. I am not very sure, but the Jaffna airport has to have. I would say the international. I am not sure whether I remember there was a international status was given or not, and then it was given. It was given. No, so then you have to basically go for a public-private partnership and allow some airlines to come and set it up and all that, because that's where you basically develop the economic. Because when you have the airport, there is I mean there's massive ecosystem. No, you have the taxi people, there's restaurants, there's you know everything comes with the airport and the port, so that Tirani Kulathunge 24:22 connectivity exactly with Dhananath Fernando 24:24 connectivity it it it it it basically creates the economy. So that has to be the focus area. I mean there was a I mean there's a cricket stadium and all that, but rather than a cricket stadium, maybe it may be coming at the latter part because okay then with this IPL and all that you may get some, you know, spillover impact, but when you target on the port and the land, that's where you basically activate. And if you have the logistic issue, let's forget about then the manufacturing. Why not the services? Because services that is mainly you're not shipping something from you know, so you get. The services because this yal this centre and all that is there, and there are people that has that can be done on your point on remittances. But unfortunately, what happened? What is also the downside of remittances? While we all celebrate remittances, I feel also from the conversations that I had with people in Jaffman who are connected, these remittances also has become bit of a curse to them because now you get easy money without because there was a sentimental jaffna people are hardworking they are smart and all that which is I think true, but now with remittances coming in they have become complacent. Now that's where the drug issue comes in and all the other social issues because now you get easy cash, and then you are not really you know hardworking, or the business ecosystem is not there for you to build skills and to get on something, and you are depending on remittances. So that's the other side of remittances. Any thoughts, Tirani, with your no? Tirani Kulathunge 25:56 Precisely, precisely. What I was thinking is that now again boils down to whether how I can reinvest these remittances into the Jaffna market or that area, right? Other thing is that I don't know whether it's you know because of not being able to reinvest that these entities are now using drugs. I I don't think we want to go to that angle, as in to try to understand this. But because of let's say some influences, you could say. I mean, obviously there's a trend going on on drugs and whatnot. But again, I think the government, of course, should prioritise on less seasonal infrastructures like the stadium or whatnot, but again, as Vadana mentioned, more on connectivity, on how businesses can perform in that, and the question is that this that I mean, apparently in Jaffna there's more startup penetration, right? And my question is that despite all that, these drug issues is also happening. It's a big cloud for me. I can't connect the dots on that front. I charindra chandrasena 27:07 mean, could it could it be the haves and the have-nots? Tirani Kulathunge 27:09 Yeah. That charindra chandrasena 27:10 the the startup ecosystem is being is benefiting the haves there, Speaker 1 27:14 the charindra chandrasena 27:15 sort of elite privileged classes, and the drug issue is among the lower segments of society, and that's I mean that's the story around the country, right? So there's no reason because Jaffna actually has a caste issue as well. So there's no reason for it to be any different in Jaffna. So that could be the answer to your question. Dhananath Fernando 27:42 Yeah, and also I think the in utilising the land, I think the it's right move to have because a cultivation like coconut because it's not much labour intensive, but you can utilise the land and work around it. So that's that's one way to look at it. But at the same time, if you are looking at more services and all that, I would say think of a tax credit system where what incentives can be provided basically to attract and make it happen. I think that's where you have to allow those decisions to be made, also to an extent to the Jaffna people, no, because they know the environment better, they know the connections better, rather than me and you going and trying to set up in Jaffna. It would be very difficult. We don't understand the cultural differences, the caste issues, and all that. So when you allow that system to work, they will, I am sure, will be responsible and develop it to the charindra chandrasena 28:36 homegrown. It has to be Dhananath Fernando 28:37 not the homegrown economic thing that we have, but mainly the homegrown, yes, the the Jaffa people to decide. So, but not to depend on remittances. That is not the way forward because there's a, as we all know, there's in Canada and UK and US there's a significant diaspora community who basically left for political reasons. Also, when you sometimes the other side of it, Charlie. When you leave for political reasons, sometimes it's very difficult to bring them back because you have a very dark or unpleasant memory of what has happened. If it's for economic reasons, when the economy becomes better, basically you come back. But when it's for political reasons, people died, and it's not a pleasant memory. Yeah. So it's very difficult to sometimes bring them back, but also it's why we are pushing for this free movement of people because now these people left in 1980s. Probably their kids and their grandchildren now they are foreign citizens. So you have to allow them to come back. Of course, just because they took like a passport or a citizenship really doesn't mean that their roots are no longer in Sri Lanka. So even for them to come back and start something, you have to love that you know environment to for them to come back and invest. So that's why the free movement of people, the foreigners to come and probably invest in land more easier regulation is important because they are in a way Sri Lankans. They left for some reason. They are no longer Sri Lankan citizens, but you. Depend charindra chandrasena 35:00 and and most importantly, then a social safety. The the word safety is relative. Dhananath Fernando 35:06 Absolutely, charindra chandrasena 35:07 right. Your safety may not be my safety, may not be her safety. Dhananath Fernando 35:11 Yeah, correct. charindra chandrasena 35:11 So what what do we feel safe in? How much of an income do we need a month to feel Dhananath Fernando 35:19 safe? Safe exactly, charindra chandrasena 35:20 and that's. So Dhananath Fernando 35:21 probably I have a feeling that may have driven to an extent why for people to apply while it's easy to criticise. Okay, there's a depending mentality, which is I agree. I charindra chandrasena 35:32 still stand by that. Exactly, I still stand by that. It's Tirani Kulathunge 35:35 also signal of stress and inadequacy of things, right? Where people struggle still, and people want to get more relief. Dhananath Fernando 35:42 Yeah. So let's say even out of that 80% definitely 25% is on the poverty. No. So and there's another 10% according to the World Bank itself, says they are at the margin. So it's natural for them to consider that 35% to even to apply because you are the you are pretty much at a difficult situation, so then the challenge is what's this other 45% They maybe you call it like you know I don't know the you know they may be falling below the poverty line and again bouncing back sort of a context, but I think that's the the the notion of that as you said the safety varies how at what point that I feel safer, or like at what point whether I have like a you know backup option if something if I lose my job or anything, so I keep it as a backup with the absence of the safety net. But I think what also this brings up the opportunity on the other side. Why the financial markets, the insurance market has to step up and offer products because that can provide a sense of safety. Because if, for example, if I have a way to contribute to an insurance scheme when I could earn, then I may not apply at the age of 55 because I know at least from my insurance I can depend, and it's like hedge for inflation. So then I'm I'm assured that I will I I don't have to depend on Aswasum or any other government or taxpayer funded social safety net programme because if we if we have the age wise data we can have a better sense. But I I don't think we have because if you know how many people out of these 80% are like above 55 or above 50, or whether whether that drives their insecurity to apply, then we may have a better sense. charindra chandrasena 37:31 Yeah. So when you say families, I think fairly you can assume that these are maybe nuclear families and the father and mother both or whatever, but but generally, I'm I'm wondering, yeah. So age-wise, we won't know, but I'm also wondering whether the targeting. Are you guys okay with the targeting that is there faster, Summer? Tirani Kulathunge 37:52 Tirani has better sense on this. I mean, it's better than summers. Yeah, so can't age. That's that's a low bar, charindra chandrasena 38:00 though, right? It's a low bar. So, but I think Dhananath Fernando 38:02 22 is, I feel, too much. That's charindra chandrasena 38:04 the thing. Whether whether that is too much, Dhananath Fernando 38:06 yeah. But you you have a different Tirani Kulathunge 38:09 audience. Just the fact that I mean, this all applications, the trend on that is also an issue of whether people understand that Aswasamu is not the same as Samurdi, and also the fact that with this application, they obviously hope to get all these funds and benefits right. On addition to that, it's basically getting stuck again over there. But Dhananath Fernando 38:39 yeah, on those 22 ones, I feel it's too much on one side. The other thing is now. I don't know whether if you noticed now all the Astrasuma recipients has to be. I don't know on data security. I think it's a bad move. You can see who actually is eligible or like who is receiving Astrasuma. They have made the process very transgressive. Recipients charindra chandrasena 39:00 are okay, public now. Public, but Dhananath Fernando 39:02 I don't know on a data security point of view how appropriate that is. I mean, just because you receive astrasuma, your house, your face is all online for full transparency purposes. But I mean, on a data security point, not data security like privacy, privacy, which I don't think if charindra chandrasena 39:20 you need aswashum, you there's a good chance that you don't want people to know that you need aswasum. Dhananath Fernando 39:26 Absolutely, right? charindra chandrasena 39:27 I mean, nobody wants to put a poster on their you know parapet was saying I am poor. Yeah, right. I Tirani Kulathunge 39:34 think one comment on that I was trying to bring up is that how people assess whether person gets the benefit, like let's say the granular garden, or the person from the welfare benefit board go to the house, assess whether okay whether you have a AC, whether you have a fan, whether the electricity consumption is there, how accurate all those details are, right? You never know to that granular level. Yeah. So that's something is a down maybe a. Point that you can consider of some issues within us. Electricity charindra chandrasena 40:03 consumption you can Tirani Kulathunge 40:05 know. Yeah, you can charindra chandrasena 40:06 know, but I mean the other metrics and and that's why. So I I I'm not I didn't sort of come prepared with this, but I think Verite Research did a study on this, and maybe they may they may have had help from others. That's why I don't want to sort of go into it. To electricity consumption was the recommended criterion. Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 40:30 Yeah. charindra chandrasena 40:31 Right. So because that is, you can't fake that. Whereas everything else, because not everything has to go through the banking system, right? Yeah. So you can claim to have a lower income than you actually do. Dhananath Fernando 40:48 Yeah. I think no. I think the Veritas proposal was even we were in a way mentioning we were necessarily didn't. I mean, we didn't say it's only electricity, but 22 I think is too much. charindra chandrasena 40:58 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 40:59 It was very difficult to track. But anyway, probably it was brought in for the transparency challenges. But electricity was the recommend because that has a indication. In fact, we published a paper on that, like a white paper research paper. But this is the interesting point. Now, with the digitization approach, actually, this can become more easier because that's one use case. I think probably would be with the digitization, this public digital public infrastructure, on the social safety net, where probably it may have the access, like even you know when you give your whatever that social security number or whatever that you can buy goods from the supermarket chain or whatever at a discounted rate. So then it's easy to trace and to subsidise. charindra chandrasena 41:48 Digital ID would cover all this, right? Dhananath Fernando 41:50 May absolutely charindra chandrasena 41:52 yeah, Dhananath Fernando 41:52 and capture because even you can cross check the data. For an example, one case that was brought out was okay. Some people claim for sushi, but when you ask, they have three German Shepherd dogs, so that questions like okay, of course none of the other things, but it also questions okay, how are you going to okay? This may be a outlier case, but okay, how are you going to feed three dogs if you really are finding it difficult to survive, right? And but when you connect all the digital like public infrastructure, whether you have a vehicle, whether it's registered under your name, whether who is your parent, whether it's under you, all that can be connected. And whether do you have any members overseas? Whether someone has travelled, of course, surveillance-wise is a different case. But on certain data layers, I am not a technical person, but you can probably assess, and on the other side, if you recall, when Samurdi was there, 40% of the Samurdi budget was for administration, which is I thought absurd because you are spending pretty much half of it for admin purposes rather than the real beneficiary. So those all those things can be basically streamlined with the digital digitization process, not the digitization, the building the public retail infrastructure, which will take a few years. But I think that will be a basically a groundbreaking transformational reform that we all think leakage will be minimal, people will be accountable, and the process would be simpler, easier, faster. charindra chandrasena 43:24 Yeah, and it's way overdue. Way overdue. It should have started years ago, but I'm glad it's finally happening. We actually have to talk about that also, but we absolutely have no time today because that's a huge topic. So we'll we'll do it in a future. Dhananath Fernando 43:40 What's your sentiments? I think we are running out of time, but what's your sentiment on the politics, Chary, and all like the issues that we discuss today, the currency depreciation, what is this Jaffna thing, and also the Astra Suman, the social safety net, because with elections, all those three basically are corrected topics. Yeah. What's your sense on the opposition? On no, I mean charindra chandrasena 44:05 there's there's there's hardly a real opposition at the moment, so that makes life easier for the government, which is quite sad because irrespective of which side you support, you would, for the sake of democracy, you'd want a strong opposition, but a government that's strong enough to withstand that scrutiny and that pressure. Right now, what's happening is that the government is having an easy ride because the opposition has been completely dismantled, and it hasn't been dismantled like it has in in say Russia or any authoritarian country, this is basically self-destruction on the part of the opposition, and they've just dismantled themselves and made the path forward really easy for the government. So the government, I think the. As I say, with great power comes great responsibility, right? So this government has the responsibility now that it has the two-thirds majority, and even you know, even outside parliament, there's no real opposition now. They they're planning a rally on the 21st called Mahajana Handa, if I remember correctly, and for that rally they can't get everybody together. So that's how fragmented the option is. If they're fragmented, they should be united. You should be stronger. United, you should stand. This is united we fall, and that's that's that's why it's sad. Every time they come together, they seem to collapse, so then maybe they are better apart. But but nobody who who wants democracy, who's a democrat, would like what is going on in Sri Lanka right now because government has so much scope to just abuse everything, change legislation to their preference. I hope the government doesn't go down that path because it has all the opportunity it needs to go down that path. Dhananath Fernando 46:07 Just want to be clear: we are not the opposition; we are just the whistle blowers and bringing the inside in the absence of probably. And that charindra chandrasena 46:15 is where think tanks and you know research organisations, you know, become even more important in the absence of a real, substantial, significant, powerful opposition. It's the think tanks and these other independent organisations that will keep the government in check. Yep. Tirani Kulathunge 46:33 I was just thinking from what you said. Is it can we just say that we the government is more reactive in terms of policies and not proactive in their agendas. I mean, there are so many promises from the manifestos. Are they really happening? So charindra chandrasena 46:48 that's exactly my point, Ernie. To the real judgement on any government comes at the polls, and if you have an election next week, it's going to be a landslide. It is going to be a landslide, right? It is going to come very close to the election result of the parliamentary election. It's going to be so much better than the presidential election because presidential election people were like dipping their toes into the water and without whether people weren't sure whether okay I have two cars will one of my cars be taken, you know I have this extra land will that be taken to the government? People weren't sure, but then they realised that's not happening. They went all in. People who didn't vote, of course, were there, but the people who voted went all in and gave a thundering majority. If they hold an election tomorrow, the sad thing is this: this is how fragmented and weak the opposition is. It is going to be close to that kind of landslide. Dhananath Fernando 47:53 Is it because the provincial council? Sorry, the local government was local charindra chandrasena 47:57 government election was about sending a message, and also local government at the local government level, Dana, it is about I would vote for you because you're my friend. Dhananath Fernando 48:06 Okay, charindra chandrasena 48:08 even if you are in the party that I don't support. Dhananath Fernando 48:11 Okay, charindra chandrasena 48:11 and you saw that very clearly with the northern votes. It didn't necessarily go to the NPP candidates. If you have a general election or a presidential election, of course that's not possible. But if you have a general or presidential next week, it's going to be. It may not be exactly that amount, but it's going to be very close. But that is nothing to celebrate, even if you are an NPP support. That is not good, because this government, as you correctly pointed out, so many things are left undone. So, on the on the anti-corruption side, they are they may be doing certain things. On the war on drugs, it seems like a genuine effort. But the on the macroeconomic side, there's a lot to be done. So, I think we'll have to have that conversation on on a different show because it's a huge topic. But yeah, so since we're out of time, we are going to wind up. Dhananath Fernando 49:10 Subscribe, subscribe, become an Advocata insider because yeah, you should get charindra chandrasena 49:16 Tirani to say it every day. You say Dhananath Fernando 49:18 yeah, no next Tina, you wanna? I could try. I could try. Be a loyal Tirani Kulathunge 49:24 fellow member of Advocata for more greater news and insights. Subscribe. That's a better version. No, that's a better Speaker 2 49:33 version. Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 49:33 And we'll see you. charindra chandrasena 49:35 We'll see you next week. Dhananath Fernando 49:37 Next week. Transcribed by https://otter.ai