Dhananath Fernando 00:20 Hello, hello! Welcome back to our programme. As you are aware, we are discussing about Dr. Rajapatiranath's latest book that he authored, and we already discussed about three chapters of the book. And it's very importantly a book about Sri Lanka, and also getting regional comparisons and discussing about the policy challenges of a globalised world. Dr. Rajapati, remember welcome back to our programme. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 00:49 Thank you for having me again. Dhananath Fernando 00:51 So we discussed on the methodology and globalisation friendly policies, globalisation unfriendly policies in Chapter Four. Interestingly, you are touching something that many economists or writers really do not want to get into, which is the which is the ideology. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 01:12 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 01:13 So first of all, as an author, senior economist, what made you to basically think about it and actually incorporate that in a book because it was easy to skip that, and no one will probably question you or the author why you did not sort of include the ideologically part of it. What made you to touch on the ideology in chapter four? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 01:41 Yeah, I'll give you a classic answer, but you might want to take it out. When Englishman was asked why did he climb Mount Everest, he said because it is there. Dhananath Fernando 01:56 Good answer. Yeah, I like it because it is there, and you cannot really, you cannot really ignore it. Yeah, avoid it. Interesting. So you have basically, you have basically touched on the ideology on multiple frames. You have taken some philosophers to define ideology. Can you first define what what do you mean by an ideology, and what are the global definitions that we can think about when you think about ideology? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 02:26 Yeah, that's a very important question to ask. I ask that question many times from myself, but actually, it's not a very difficult thing. Ideology is a set of beliefs that we have accumulated. You know, different people accumulate different way. What is the the out outcome of a particular policy change? That what we are dealing with, and if you leave leave out ideology, then there is a big vacuum there. So you have to have ideology. Statistically, it can be shown that if you omit ideology, then the fit won't come very well because it has an important role to play. Now, what is ideal is set of beliefs. It's ideal. For example, my ideology is free trade. I think your ideology same free trade. We think free trade works, and actually it actually works. So that is our ideology between markets. We are ideologically committed to the idea of market because it has worked. So that is the way people do it. Karl Marx said ideology is something bit or like something cover. So he didn't believe the idea, the way how beer defined ideally. Dhananath Fernando 03:45 So you have actually taken Karl Marx as an example. No, yeah, you have to take Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 03:48 Karl Marx. Yeah, he was an intelligent guy with the wrong idea. Dhananath Fernando 03:53 And also, you have also taken people like Max Weber, right? Max Weber, yeah. Max Weber, and also I, I, I, I. I I apologise for mispronouncing this name for sure. Big new Brens Brenzinski Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 04:09 Bresinsky Dhananath Fernando 04:10 Bresinski Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 04:10 Sprignu Sprignu Dhananath Fernando 04:12 Sprignu Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 04:12 Bresinski. Yeah, Dhananath Fernando 04:13 it's pronounced with a Z B I G N I E W. Yeah. So what what gathered you on the ideological front from those definitions? You explained about Karl Marx. Yeah. He thought it's like a cover and Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 04:29 yeah Dhananath Fernando 04:30 yeah. But but what was the? Is it the same from Max Weber and Brzezinski and no? There are different Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 04:35 there are different justifications for for it. But actually, as I've said before, people were very worried about using hydrology because it is something that is not very easily grabbable. It's it has different people have different ideas, but simple idea is that idea is a set of beliefs. And if you want to develop even more and say that ideology is a attribute that is helpful to think about future of something, some project or some country. So, for example, I think I let you use the name about the Indian gentleman who advised India, which Indians very conveniently and sadly for them did not take him seriously. Dhananath Fernando 05:37 Not only, I mean, not only Indians. Even he did a report on Sri Lanka and even Sri Lankans did not take it seriously. Indians did not take it seriously. We can discuss it. But Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 05:46 one man, one did take it seriously. Jaya Jawadar. Dhananath Fernando 05:49 Jaya Jawadar took it seriously. But in terms of the implementation, it wasn't. I think we could have done better. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 05:56 Yeah, we could certainly done better. Actually, India would have grown by today. India would be, in my book, would have done better than the United States. Dhananath Fernando 06:04 Yeah, and if that was the case, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 06:06 then then Dhananath Fernando 06:07 we could have been the first beneficiary. If India was significantly important as U.S. yeah, then I think our destination could have been definitely different from what we are going through now. So, Dr. Rajpati, you know, in terms of ideology, so you mention it as a set of values, set of beliefs. Is it? I was about to ask whether it is its beliefs, and when you say beliefs, do you also think it's the values, and also to an extent, institutions are also part of that belief system. Yeah, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 06:41 of course, all these things are. You know, that's why people didn't want to get into it. It's very slippery. Dhananath Fernando 06:47 Right. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 06:48 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 06:49 And also now afterwards, then you basically discuss about the policy paradigms. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 06:58 Yeah. Now ways of thinking about it. Exactly. There Dhananath Fernando 07:01 are ways of thinking about it. So, can you elaborate a bit, very briefly, on the policy paradigms and the and the role of ideology in those policy paradigms, a bit? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 07:14 Yeah, ideology allows you to get a good fix on what you have to do and how ideology will have an impact on Dhananath Fernando 07:23 it. Right. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 07:24 So, if for example, if you go back to your story about the Indian gentleman, if we followed Indian gentleman, if India followed, we had different outcomes. So would would we, because we we are very closely associated with India and what they done well, we would have followed. And today we will be more having higher GDP growth rate than what we have had. Although we our GDP growth rate, frankly, was not too bad. It was 4.1 percent for 76 years. We would have done better than that, of course. Dhananath Fernando 08:02 Absolutely. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 08:03 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 08:04 And Dr. Ajay, now when you say ideology, since you also agreed, and we are pretty much on the same page when it comes to ideology, values, beliefs, and interest and institutions. Yeah. So I know you haven't touched it on the same order. Yeah. But now generally, when let's say when there's a policy maker in the front seat who believes instead of believes, which you define in a way as ideology, and generally the rest of the other things basically falls aligning with their ideology. You know, then there will be an interest on one side, and then generally you think of institutions. When I say institutions, it is not like the you know the physical institutions that you set up the ecosystem in a way that it supports your ideology. So how do you how do you basically see Dr. Rajapatirano in Sri Lanka's case and those beliefs, and also setting up the institutions and the interest when it comes to the policy challenges of globalisation for Sri Lanka. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 09:12 Yeah, actually, I can't give a little bit turn here. This way, if we listen to Chennai, or if Shannay spoke to us earlier. I I discovered Chennon by by accident. Central bank has this book by this man. Dhananath Fernando 09:31 Okay. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 09:31 Yeah, nobody has seen it before. And since I was with the central bank and I had agreement with the central bank staff, they are very good library, by the way, run by the. She was the head of the library. Right. When she start asking what other books we should learn, I loved it because Dhananath Fernando 09:54 I Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 09:55 wanted the books like Chennai book to be there in the library, and it. They they kept it bought Dhananath Fernando 10:03 it, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 10:03 right? Yeah. So Dhananath Fernando 10:04 yes. So so it's important that you you brought Shenoy to the conversation. I just wanted to touch upon on like how that ideology and institutions basically shape up the you know pathways to globalisation, and what is in your book that the readers probably can go a little bit deeper on understanding it? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 10:29 Yeah, I'll go and say the other way. Okay. Supposing we had left ideology, right? And and like everybody believed, then nothing you can do with it. Right. But they find a big hole in their thinking if they were to to have abandoned it. So it it helped to service now the the the way that people started thinking when Shanoi brought that. They didn't fully discover what he was saying, or didn't agree also. But it it worked out well. So, for example, India would have had a different growth rate, and as you say, we would have also had like India, you know, better growth rate. Dhananath Fernando 11:20 And Dr. Ajay, in your policy paradigms, you speak about I think about two models like the rational choice and the reflectivist sort of model. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 11:31 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 11:31 And you, in the rational choice model, like the interest groups and the policies coming from the coalition, building, negotiation. Yeah. You discuss about it. Could you also elaborate a bit more, like how those two models, when you when you consider Sri Lanka, how those aligned? I'm coming to the next part, like you know how different governments and their coalition building basically shaped up to globalisation friendly policies versus globalisation unfriendly policies. But I was for to understand the two models, and do you have any comparables? Because you also mentioned in Sri Lanka, for from shifting for ideologies, it was a little bit slow compared to Latin America, where the shift was kind of faster. Could you elaborate a bit? Give a flavour of this interest group model and the reflection reflectivist model a bit, so then we can easily deep dive into the Sri Lankan episodes like the the narrations that we had. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 12:30 I'll say begin by saying it's not easy, Dhananath Fernando 12:32 right? But I'll try Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 12:33 to do it. Start with the very beginning is that is that if you had be not taken ideally into account, you will have got a different result, and the result won't be as good as what we have got. Dhananath Fernando 12:47 Right, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 12:47 that's first idea. Dhananath Fernando 12:49 Right, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 12:49 but people think in different ways. Marx never bought this idea. He thought ideology was a cover for what you want to do obviously not a good thing, but supposing Marx somebody set him down, Senai I think Marx was alive actually. Shenai had a good conversation. Senai would have been able to change Marx's idea, but Marx himself was a very good thinker. The way the the the support he got from people who listened to him were very strong. They are still here, you know, and so it's very difficult to define. Dhananath Fernando 13:42 Understand? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 13:42 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 13:43 And before I come to Sri Lanka's those ideological shifts, now you you also look at economics on a more data driven, factual basis sort of a lens. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 13:55 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 13:56 So when you look at policy challenges for a globalised world. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 14:00 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 14:02 When you weight ideology, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 14:04 yeah, is Dhananath Fernando 14:05 there a way that you can quantify it, or is there a model that you can? There's Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 14:11 a way actually. Okay, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 14:12 from statistics, no problem. So we have what are called we have different barrier worlds, Dhananath Fernando 14:19 right? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 14:20 And if you include ideology in it, then you get a better fit for your equation. Dhananath Fernando 14:28 Right. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 14:28 Yeah. So you can, if you neglect it, then you are losing an important part of the argument. Dhananath Fernando 14:35 Right. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 14:36 And so, therefore, by bringing ideology back into the house where people are thinking about these things, we get a better fit for our statistical information that we can we use it in order to make ideology whether it worked or not. Usually, if we leave. Ideology from the equation, then we don't get as good a fit, good result as we would if if you if you were to include ideology. Dhananath Fernando 15:13 Got it, got it. Next, Dr. Rajapatra, we'll move to the the four like you know the the trajectories of Sri Lanka. So, from 1956 to 59, there was this on the ideological context of Sri Lanka. There's this SWRD Bandaranaike's time, yeah, and that was after independence. So, how do you see the ideological weightage? Because it's obvious that was more to the left of centre, yeah, more self-sufficiency. You do everything on your own, and also it's more the singular Buddhist majoritarianism that was prominent. So, when you look at that ideology versus globalisation, how do you? What is the connection? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 15:57 No, I think that the results would improve by including variable that matter, not something just taken out of you know, this could be would make a big big difference if we we would if we didn't include in it this variable we wouldn't got such a good fit result. Got Dhananath Fernando 16:17 it. When it comes to Doctor Doctor Ajay, Patrina mr. S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike's time, the the ideological connection and how it like you know globalised world. How does it basically, in in your view, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 16:32 S. W. R. D. Bandar Nayak was influenced by Jalal Nehru. Nehru was a globalist and unfriendly man because he was he was a part socialist and he thought that is what what would help India, but actually some people have estimated my friends among Indian theorists put the crock back for India by about 50% So, in other words, if they follow this, India would have been growing double the rate it has been growing. Of course, now India is about to do so on so 1% GDP growth rate average in the next 10 years. That is because they are they have taken all these factors into account. Dhananath Fernando 17:22 Correct. So you, yeah. Again, coming back to how if the if the ideologically, you know, framework was different during Nehru's time, and if the if someone like Shenoy were to or some you know some person like Shenoy to influence the ideological context of Nehru. Definitely, things could have been much different. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 17:47 Yeah, but actually, Nehru would have Nehru would have never agreed to Shannon. Then they would agree to because Nehru had his own guy. Dhananath Fernando 17:54 Right, and we I think we broadly spoke about in the previous episodes. Yeah, how there was a delegation came from different parts of the world to Sri Lanka and having that conversation. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 18:06 Yeah, Dhananath Fernando 18:07 and then after after SWRD Bandar Naik, then came Sirma Bandar Nayaka. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 18:13 Yeah, but there is I will comment as we go on. Dhananath Fernando 18:17 Right, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 18:17 Sirma Bandar Nayak was very good person. However, she was coached by the leftists at that time. Samsung, the party, Communist Party. They she created a coalition, and she was quite happy, satisfied, satisfied that she followed their. These are very well informed people, like Doctor Nempera. You know, they Dhananath Fernando 18:40 are all good, nice people. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 18:41 Nice people, good people, but they they had the wrong ideas about economics. And actually, if I believe that if they were living now, they would not be in this. They would have been thinking. Never have Dhananath Fernando 18:55 changed their mind. They Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 18:56 changed their mind. Actually, the bright people are always ready to change their mind. So. they didn't unfortunately, and lot of Indians complain and say, "See what these people did. They held us up by 50% We will double our per capita income if they didn't follow these some silly ideas. Yeah. So Dhananath Fernando 19:21 then came Jaya Jayavardhana. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 19:22 Yeah. Jaya Jayavardhan wanted from the very beginning. He he he has respect for ideology. Yeah. He said we need this idea. Dhananath Fernando 19:32 Is it? I just just to just to pause you there. I I heard that Jaya Jayavardhana actually before he I mean before he I mean in 1977 he of course pretty much convinced. But before that, in the you know in the previous election or the election one election before that, he was also more inclining with the with the not really the socialist side, but he was also on the self sufficiency front. And then I think Shenoy reports. And things like that actually got him to think the other way around and change. Is is there any truth to it, or is there any evidence to back that up? No, I Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 20:08 think I think that is correct. That there are them being also very smart man, a lawyer, good lawyer, And who who got convinced that this should this is worth a try because this is this was not the standard thinking at that time. Chenoi brought a new idea into it, and so Chenoi was then Jayal was Jayal was convinced that this is a good thing to do, and therefore he was supporting Chenoi's ideas. That is so. This correct that were also what became Jayawardena's ideas. Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 21:02 got it. And then after Jaya Jayavadana, it came pretty much. Of course, there were multiple episodes afterwards. Of course, there was Rana Singh Premadasa for a short period. There was D B V J Tunga, and then there was Shantika Bandar Nayaka Kumar Tunga. Yeah. So any any thoughts on I think what you have mentioned in Madam I mean President Chandrika Bandaranaike's time was she basically in a way softened the stance of the SL SLFP which were not which were originally quite globalisation unfriendly and she basically softened their position yeah you want to elaborate that, Doctor Ajina? Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 21:42 So, and this is true that he made it little bit soft compared to what what other people were talking about, and she had a great person to help him, Sjawadana. Dhananath Fernando 21:56 Sjawadana. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 21:56 Yeah, who was the governor of the bank? Later, he was also a Marxist. Dhananath Fernando 22:02 It's Javal Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 22:02 before before before he saw the light. Smart Dhananath Fernando 22:05 person also changed their mind after realising. No smart Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 22:08 people always change the mind. Actually, you know, so they work together a lot. Yeah, Dhananath Fernando 22:14 right, right. And then came President Rajapaksa's time, and again, pretty much kind of a reversal for of the globalisation friendly policies again. Yeah, more tariffs, para tariffs. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 22:26 Yeah, Dhananath Fernando 22:26 and of course there was war, so it has to be financed. Yeah, our friend Professor Korola mentioned like how basically tariffs were used to finance the war. Yeah, so it became more protectionist. Do you want to comment on on that period on a globalisation lens? What happened? What could have been different on the other front? We I think discussed also in the in the book on the on the on the different time frames that we have analysed globalisation friendly versus unfriendly. But ideologically, do you see anything different or anything that we have to make noteworthy during that period. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 23:03 No, I think that what we have already discussed so far in the book, you know, is is what could actually happen. Dhananath Fernando 23:11 Right. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 23:11 We are using an incident that actually happened. We are thinking about Sri Lanka that we know very very well, and a lot of people agree that that with that analysis, yeah. Got it. Dhananath Fernando 23:22 Also, Dr. Ajay, I want to quickly, in the final few minutes, also to look at the regional aspect. We spoke briefly about India and the ideological influence they had. Any other countries that we should consider? Countries like Bangladesh or any other countries where that ideological framework really shifted and changed the interest and the institutions, and really went. I mean, as you have mentioned in the book, there could be similar contexts for two countries, but that ideological difference may probably end those two countries in two different destinations based on one range. Yeah, yeah. So in Sri Lanka, in Asia's or South Asia's context, any any any lessons from Bangladesh or from India that we missed out? No, there's a whole Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 24:06 lot of countries that did very well. Dhananath Fernando 24:08 Okay, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 24:09 look at the East East Asian countries. The ASEAN, huh? The ASEAN Dhananath Fernando 24:14 bloc. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 24:15 ASEAN bloc. They they looked at the other countries and say why did they grow and they suddenly, they imitated. They followed the same thing. They followed what other people were doing and showing good results. That's very creditable that they did. Yeah, they were not stopped by ideology. No, nobody. They didn't care for it. They said we want to get this growth rate going. This way of doing it. These are the. Indonesian did, or you know, the Dhananath Fernando 24:51 Vietnam, Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 24:52 Vietnam all followed, but they thought good for them, and they succeeded. Dhananath Fernando 24:58 Got it, Dr. Rajapati. Any final thoughts on Chapter Four? We discussed three chapters, and today's the more conversation about, as we discussed at the beginning, that's something that many economists really do not want to touch upon because the the path is a little slippery. Yeah. Anything that you want to highlight? What I Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 25:18 I want to say that they can't ignore now. We have made the case also. Dhananath Fernando 25:26 Right. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 25:26 They can't ignore other other countries in Asia that you mentioned. Dhananath Fernando 25:31 Vietnams, the South Koreans, ASEAN blocked the Indonesian. Yeah, they had Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 25:35 no. Actually, the Vietnamese guy who was negotiating, I think, told me, you know, we should have done even more. Dhananath Fernando 25:44 Right. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 25:45 I said, you have done enough. That's enough. No, we could have done even more. And so they, so they followed. They they had no even Indonesians have no problem. When they see something working there, they say we'll do that, and he'll ask me why why wouldn't we do that, and they are completely right on those things. Dhananath Fernando 26:08 Thank you, Dr. Ajapatira, for joining this episode, and looking forward to see you on on discussing on chapter five as well. Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana 26:17 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 26:18 So if you are watching us, please go and subscribe and also become an Advocata Insider. It's just 12,000 rupees per year. That's 1000 rupees per month. And we are also you can find us on social media. In Singala, we are there as Advocata Plus, and in Tamil, you should be able to find us as Advocata Kural, and it could be Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube-we are pretty much across all social media platforms. Now, Karaja Madrid, thank you very much again, and we'll see you with a new episode next week. Transcribed by https://otter.ai