charindra chandrasena  00:04
Hello, Dana. Hi, Chari. Hi, Riyadh.

Speaker 1  00:08
Hi, Chari. Interesting week, no?

charindra chandrasena  00:09
Interesting, interesting week. Globally, there's a lot happening, and there's a lot that we can also talk about. I mean, last night there was a full price increase in Sri Lanka,

Speaker 1  00:23
yeah,

charindra chandrasena  00:24
and you know 20 and above kind of spike. So there are a lot of views expressed about it. Do we need a government here if all they are doing is you know increase in the fuel prices when the global prices increase? Do what is the point of having a government in that case or a ministry of energy? And the other side of it is that it is a global crisis and therefore it's out of the hands of this government. So that that debate rages on as as we speak, and on the war front, President Trump has signalled that the war is almost complete now. So it has been one and a half weeks, as opposed to the earlier four to five week timeline that he said. So the oil prices that climbed well above $100 have come down now to a more manageable level, and there are various. I mean, Iran has a new supreme leader, so there's a lot going on on that front, and and that appointment is a rebuke to Trump because that's the one guy Trump didn't want to get rid of the father for the son to come in. So a lot happening, and in terms of markets, markets have been crashing, but I think they're slightly recovering now after Trump's signal that it might be ending soon, so there's a lot happening. But but I want to today focus on something closer to hope about foreign policy and diplomacy. Our our diplomatic corps, our foreign ministry, the government as a whole does it have the the skills and the diplomatic savvy to to deal with the world? And the catalyst for this conversation is this interview that was conducted by Indian journalist Parkish Sharma with with the Indian Foreign Minister and the Sri Lankan Foreign Minister, right? Yeah. So mr. Jay Shankar's answer to that question that I think you know what I'm talking about, where she was asked, are you going to repatriate the Iranians, and are you under pressure from the U.S. not to? And his answer was,

Dhananath Fernando  03:09
"You mean Minister Vijita's answer, not Jayash Ankhar's, right? Sorry,

charindra chandrasena  03:12
Minister Vijay's answer. Yes, Vijay's answer was, "We we will we follow yeah own clause. Yeah, basically international

Speaker 1  03:23
law.

charindra chandrasena  03:23
Yes, international law own clause, right? And then the reason I brought up Jayshankar is when he was asked, he repeated that saying we we also you know follow own clause and international law. So then actually that got a bit of laughter from the audience as well, because he was basically echoing

Speaker 1  03:45
what he was saying. Visitor's sentiment,

charindra chandrasena  03:47
but on a in a broad sense, guys. Let's start with that English problem, right? Because a lot of people have been sharing speeches made by Professor Sorry, Lakshman Khadrigramar. The

Speaker 1  04:07
past foreign minister. Yes,

charindra chandrasena  04:09
past foreign ministers. Because we've had Mangal Samaravera, we've had G. L. P. Ris, we've had Rohit Bogola Gamar, we've had a few people who are comfortable in English. Yeah. Now, Vich Deharat is not comfortable in English. No. But is that a problem? Is there a barrier to him being foreign minister? So yeah,

Dhananath Fernando  04:35
even okay, okay. So

Speaker 1  04:37
yeah, I have to be be primary. Come on, be primary question, right? So I don't know how to do

Dhananath Fernando  04:43
that.

Speaker 1  04:44
So the thing is, it's like this. Tactically, I mean, any government position. Technically, you don't. I mean, you don't have to because if you can't, if you don't have the prowess of the language, what you can do is you can have an interpreter and all that. But you have to understand now. If you take the government, the government. Basically run by five key people. I'm talking about the political front. It's the president, prime minister, finance minister, foreign minister, defence minister, right? Out of the five, per se, the the the one that really needs the skill of the language is actually foreign minister because you are not doing a. It's not a. It's not an internal relation; it's external relation. So, external relation is better that you have the language, right? And if you take, if you go back and you know some of the some of the names that you said as foreign ministers and others, if you go back, Sri Lanka's longest serving foreign minister, ACS Amit, who is you know actually nicknamed as all countries in Amit, right? All countries were ACS, ACS, right? I mean, he was he was the longest standing economist. I think during JR's cabinet, I think he was there for almost like 12 or 13 years. I think both terms he was there. So thing is, they actually have the skill of the cab, so they really could go. Because the problem is, one thing is if you go with interpreters, one thing it slows things down. One thing is the interpreter interpreting the right thing. Because if he makes a mistake, then the long language comes out. That is one. Second is another one is impression. I mean, you have to be the foreign minister. You expect them to speak the international language. So the international accepted international language worldwide is English. I mean, that's the most. It used to be Mandarin, but but now worldwide in the last 10 years, what they say is the most spoken language in the world is English, and that's a general accepted diplomatic language. So sending someone who doesn't have that skill, there is a question. But then again, there is something called government seniority, right? So in seniority, foreign minister is a very powerful role, so you can't put a you can't fleet up with the junior role, right? Okay, so that problem is there, but still, if you have someone in your government in the cabinet, maybe a deputy minister can be a state minister of let's say of foreign affairs, you can probably send him into a event like this, saying that okay, you have the language, you know what to, and other thing is normally the foreign ministry will generally brief the minister or whoever who's going there on the possible questions that will be asked, right? So, so this the only journalist I see that you have to be really careful is Mehdi, right? So yeah, Mehdi is you don't know where he's going to because you know you know Ranil Brickram Singh went for this. You think I mean Ranil Bikram Singh English is nobody and he does the research and he does the you know Oxford scholar Oxford debated him all that right. So the thing is apart from you know apart from few journalists who are like that generally 90% 95 I would say even 99 percent generally the foreign minister can breach the guy who's going there. So if you're having issues with the language, one thing you can do is you either have to learn it and make yourself better, or either you have to send someone else. So that is my pick. But of course, some people will say, you know, interpreter, this thing is there where Vladimir Putin comes and speaks in even though he is converse in English, he speaks in Russian. But the thing is, you know, Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka, the government as a country, we have a smaller calibre than that. And the other, this thing is, you know, the foreign minister is a person who actually goes and connects with people overseas, right? So it's if you know, for example, if you go for a World Economic Forum, you can speak to a lot of people who are there because if when you go for forums like this, it's not only the diplomats. You get businessmen, high-profile entrepreneurs, and who are there, right?

Speaker 1  08:29
I mean, you can't go and talk to them in via an interpreter because they won't take you seriously. Because generally, you need to go and so you need that stature also because the stature comes with your or at risk. So that is something I think the government should take more seriously. And the other thing is, this government has a track record of mumbling things up in with the language. Yeah, but like when it comes to when

charindra chandrasena  08:52
it comes to sending someone,

Speaker 1  08:54
yeah,

charindra chandrasena  08:55
this is with S J Shankar.

Speaker 1  08:58
Yes,

charindra chandrasena  08:58
you you can't be sending your deputy minister. So you

Speaker 1  09:02
can send the prime minister. Why didn't they send the prime minister? So my view

Dhananath Fernando  09:06
is, sorry. I mean, overall, I don't think language has to be a barrier for anything. I mean, I in in my view, because you know, I have I think spoken it publicly as well. I mean, we speak multiple languages, so I mean, it should not be a barrier, and you have basically options in that case. But having said that, there are certain jobs that sometimes it's a need. Like for an example, if you are applying for a job as a your former role, like if you are going to become an editor of an English newspaper, you can't say my language cannot be a barrier. Okay, I'm good in Singala because that job itself requires certain language skills. So I think out of all, I think president and whoever I think sometimes manageable. But I think when a foreign minister, even if you look at the Russian foreign minister or like the Iranian foreign minister, who. Whether the foreign minister generally it they can speak one or two languages to begin with, but I think rather than the language, what they bring to the table is that gravitas and like you know ability to analyse a lot of complicated issues and being able to put it across without hurting the other side and being able to bring it you know you know both sides to the table. I think that's the key skill. It's like a key negotiator, mediator sort of a role that these foreign minister profile comes in. For an example, if you look at you know when Mangala Sambharavir launched his book, Samantha Bawa came to deliver the keynote. Like it goes beyond sometimes. I mean, it's the PR skills that really goes beyond. Even there was a story of late Foreign Minister Khadregama. I think it was Jeremy Powell, right? That the Treasury, the Foreign Secretary, or someone. I think the yes,

Speaker 1  10:53
yes, Powell.

Dhananath Fernando  10:53
Powell. Former. So what he had done was, I mean, you know, to get an appointment with Powell, it was very difficult because always there is a long queue. But when he came to Sri Lanka, he had he had seen a banyan tree which was very beautiful, and he was commending a lot about this tree. Jeremy Pavel and Lakshmana Kadam has done the research. I think he was come from he's originated from Caribbean islands or somewhere, so he knew this island mentality, so what he had done was as a Sunia, he had taken a picture of this this banyan tree and sent it as a gift to power. Yeah, he

Speaker 1  11:30
framed it and put it and sent it.

Dhananath Fernando  11:32
So that thing, you know, it is that level of skill that is required. I mean, language is part of it, but to really understand the other side of the table, and bring it together, and you know who can calm things down and get the thing done is the key skill. Language sometimes okay, sometimes you can. There are different layers of language as well. I am sure all these ministers can when they meet like casual, they can speak. I mean, they can speak. They can get across the idea. But sometimes when you do public speaking, I mean there are so many people who can speak singular. But if you give them the opportunity to deliver a speech or the public speak, I mean a public speaking assignment, that would be basically not may not be their cup of tea. So even if you are facing that situation, I still think still it can managed, but maybe use an interpreter or you know another you know. But ideally, the profile should have the language as a skill. But even if there's a limitation, because let's look at the reality with the government. I mean, if you have a senior minister, but you really need to play the politics as well, you cannot, of course, appoint someone from the opposition as who can only can speak English and have gravitas in your government as the foreign minister. So on that sense, you can basically manage it with an interpreter. That's the priority wise. That's the last thing that you should do. Ideally, you should look at for someone. Otherwise, I think even someone like prime minister who can say. But otherwise, I think there are options. Important thing is you you basically give it you it's not the language in my view it is the gravitas that was missing because if you look at that question what's the yes or no answer ideally I'm sure if you ask it from Khadrakam or someone probably they will say in a complicated geopolitical situation I wish that I could answer I saw I can give an answer with a yes or no and that's the end of it, right? But you need to have that sense of humour and all that to make it. But the important thing is an economic impact. This is all this diplomacy is like not going to countries and like all as all countries in Hamid is not the job of the foreign minister. It is all about economic integration. That's why the foreign ministry is established. It's all economic diplomacy. You, I mean, on a you know, when the world is moving for trade, the the the security, the security of the oceans, and the diplomacy is to strengthen the trade because the first line is before you go to war and security, you first try to solve it in the table, and that's where the foreign ministry comes in. Even if you can't solve it, there is where you move to the defence mechanism, right? Because solving it over the table is quite, I mean, cheaper than moving ships and all. So that's my overall.

charindra chandrasena  14:15
So I have a complicated view on this, right? Because you brought up Harini, Prime Minister, I think she was the most obvious choice to become Foreign Minister. But I also think that she was not given that job because diplomatically, geopolitically, she is not knowledgeable enough, possibly, possibly. No, but no, but no. Hear me out, right? This is an assumption because otherwise, she could easily have been given foreign minister an education, despite her background in education. If it was about work. Workload management. Okay, with her background in education, yes, she's best qualified for that. But a lot of people could have

Speaker 2  15:08
done it.

charindra chandrasena  15:09
There is literally only one person in that top tier that can do the foreign minister job. Meaning in terms of English, so my hunch is that she was not given that either because she refused it, or they felt that she was not conversant enough in in terms of geopolitical matters, right? Because you need to know also not just the language, know also.

Speaker 1  15:40
No, sorry, it's like this. What I said was like specifically, like if you look at this government, this government has a track record of going to international events and going and mucking things up because of the language, right? They have basically murdered the king, right? So to speak, right, on a colloquial term. So the thing is, I mean, you don't need to have perfect English, but you need to have at least understandable English too, right? So we had another minister who went again. Palki was there, and this happens with Palki a lot, right? Yeah, what's his name? What's his name? Bibal? No, not Bimal.

charindra chandrasena  16:13
Hanuneti.

Speaker 1  16:14
Hanuneti. He went and he made a spectacular blunder there, right? At the World Economic Forum, if you are not mistaken, that was not park. That was not park, sir. This Indian there was another. I think there was another Indian where Palki was there. There was another bank. So this country has a track record of going for these big events and bungling up the whole thing. Maybe not because of the lack of knowledge. It's a lack of the the lack of the language, lack of the ability of the language. Also,

Dhananath Fernando  16:42
Ria, to add to that, I think this is a very tough job because you know, I mean, even language agree, but also the knowledge because you need know you need to know about the history. You have to be really up to date before you go for these things because things change drastically. That's the point that I'm making. You have to be really like a intellectual educ. I mean, intellectually, this is who has the behaviour of basically on a news cycle and basically understanding it and not only understanding in one dimension, understanding in multiple dimensions is needed. Sorry, go ahead. Yeah, so

Speaker 1  17:19
so then I agree with you. But the thing is that was reason. No, Lakshmana Kadarka was bought in from the nationalist, right? I mean, he never Lakshmani Kathar never contested in election. He was bought in from the nationalist for that reason. So one option is you can bring someone from the nationalist and get a guy with the skill to come and do it. That was was not done. So if you look at the whole particular this thing on this particular matter. Government has done lot of good things. This is one area they have completed. I'm

charindra chandrasena  17:47
I'm not disagreeing with you.

Speaker 1  17:49
Yeah,

charindra chandrasena  17:49
I'm saying that in that top tier, what's the top tier? You take so president, you get Harini, you get Bimal, you get Vijita, you get Lal Kantha, and then you get Nalinda.

Speaker 1  18:03
Yeah.

charindra chandrasena  18:03
So that's six people. Yeah.

charindra chandrasena  18:05
Out of those six, he was the sorry. She was the most qualified.

Speaker 1  18:10
Yeah.

charindra chandrasena  18:11
In terms of language, I'm trying to figure out why she wasn't given it, and I think it may have a a bit to do with Knowledge,

Speaker 1  18:22
I don't know, but but if you look at the government,

charindra chandrasena  18:25
because what is what is your guess? No, no. No, but

Speaker 1  18:28
the government hierarchy is after the prime after the president is the prime minister. So normally the foreign minister is normally if you look at most of the other countries, normally the finance minister or the foreign minister is the prime minister in waiting, right? She is the prime minister, so she is no Prime Minister in waiting. So why should she go down? Knowledge was

Dhananath Fernando  18:45
also Chari. In my, I mean, if you look at the portfolios, I think Mangala was quite a. I mean, he was had a fashion designing. But if you look at even Ministerly Sabrik, I mean, he was a lawyer. So he knew actually. I mean, international law and all that is a not just a lawyer. I mean, he was practising at a very special counsel, and even Professor G L P is, regardless of all criticisms or whatever. Oh yeah, he is knowledgeable, and he knew and and even Mangala Samarveda. I I mean, from the little that we know, he's well read. He pretty much knew more than very experienced very experienced in politics, he knew and language-wise good, but also knowledge-wise, he had was he he's a reader, so he was up to date and he got a good team around him. And even before that, people like Tiron Fernandez, Hamid, Lakshman Kadirgam. Obviously, I'm not sure about Rohit Bogle. I don't know much about him, but Mahinda Samarasinghe even you know they are. I think regardless of all criticisms and allegations and all that, at least they knew they are like you know they knew how to manage the game. And I think they are a senior people. Yeah. Of course, I think mr. mr. Palihakar. They are a senior diplomats at the same time who really can feel. Yeah, but I'm not sure in this case

Speaker 1  20:02
comes to yeah former ambassador to so high sorry high commissioner to India. So so thing is the team was there and other thing is now lot of people again sorry not disturbing but the thing is lot of people say you know you need to have the knowledge no the knowledge is passed on with the officials at the foreign ministry you're going for this particular. You're going for this particular. You're going for this particular discussion. 90% they know what's going to be asked, and the other things from the back channel. Sometimes the questions are already sent. Yeah. So yeah, our point is that we are trying to venture a guess as to why she wasn't given that, right? Because now, yeah. Because this this whole conversation now. I mean, we are trying to direct it. No, no, no. Sorry, listen. What I am saying is not given now for some event like this where it's sensitive and how you answer. It's better to send send someone who is converse in English. I am not saying being the foreign minister. No, but your argument was Ayashanka being there, you send the deputy minister. Then there is a gap. So what I said that's okay for this particular one. Don't say they

charindra chandrasena  21:02
know it as a cap. No, because Jay Shankar is the foreign minister, external affairs minister. Yeah. You, I mean, our prime minister, as small as we are, is still outranked.

Speaker 1  21:13
But it's like this. Then why not send the

charindra chandrasena  21:16
president? I mean, no, no, no. It's

Speaker 1  21:17
like this. No president also. You can't know. There's a language issue. No, I'm saying

charindra chandrasena  21:20
any president. No, you are not saying these

Speaker 1  21:22
charity when you go for a very sensitive this thing that's going on, right? It's better to go and send someone who can actually do the job than than sending someone for a you know parade, right? Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I'm

charindra chandrasena  21:34
saying that that would be a plaster solution, whereas what what is the actual thing for her to be foreign minister in that case, right? Not for her to represent the foreign minister just because he. No, she can represent

Speaker 1  21:46
the foreign minister. You can say the foreign minister is indisposed. He is talking, Kalambo, and so on. Very bad, very bad

charindra chandrasena  21:52
optics. Very bad optics. No, no,

Speaker 1  21:53
optics are there. But the thing is, just imagine with worldwide media. What happens? Everyone will be watching that, right? And then you see some some guy came and said something and went.

charindra chandrasena  22:02
Coming back to the point that Dana made about English, yes, but also the gravitas and and the the the way you communicate, right? One thing about Khadra Gamal was his English was different to say JLPs, who uses it's lovely to hear him speak, but then sometimes you realise how how empty those words are because the the actions don't match the words. But both

Speaker 1  22:33
of them are Oxford qualified, so

charindra chandrasena  22:34
that's the thing, right? So you you get people like Khadragamar and and even even say Lalit Tataragundali, who who don't necessarily use and I think the criticism about Sajit Pralas is this that they don't necessarily use big words unnecessarily, right? So Kadrakama's famous speech that everybody refers to is when he went to the Oxford Union and said that Oxford was the icing on the cake, but the cake was baked at home.

Speaker 1  23:06
Yeah.

charindra chandrasena  23:06
Right. So that's a very very simple sentence. Yeah. You know. So you don't have to know very advanced English to to be you know communicating with the world, and I think that kind of English helps in getting us economic benefits, you know, you know, enhancing trade because it's a more sort of a more real life everyday English that you would speak over a dinner table as well, and a lot of these discussions happen over dinner, lunch, you know, like a tea party, whatever. Yeah, of course. So I think I think that's important. But let's move beyond English, okay? And in terms of our diplomatic, you know, talent, do we? And and I wanted to completely forget English, okay? Do we have the skills, especially, particularly in terms of getting us these deals that we want-the the trade deals, the the the entrance to different markets, all of that at the diplomatic corps level, and as a government, how have they performed so far?

Dhananath Fernando  24:26
So, Deachari, I I think we are we are we our structure is very poor. I I I structure is very poor in the sense, in terms of permanent secretaries, permanent postings, the examinations, and identifying really people. I think things are very poor. I speak with a little small experience that I had. These chartered accountants they have their annual conference, which is one of the largest conferences. Last year, they asked me to come and moderate the panel, and this panel was comprised of all. I mean, key diplomats. There were, they I think they have kept. I mean, U.S. India, and Japan. Out, but it was Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, yeah, European Union. So I saw how they basically, of course, as a part of my job, like I tend to get to meet most of these diplomats. The way that they pitch their countries and the process that they come through is completely at a. I mean, I'm not saying everyone is at the same level, but completely different. For an example, even I remember the Malaysian High Commissioner. He was wearing something from Malaysia. He was wearing a hat, and he was basically promoting, say, like you know, this is Malaysian batik and all that. And Indonesian, it's the same. Same with. I mean, European Union was very like on the GSP plus. They really had their agenda, agenda in the sense they knew where they are pitching in when it comes to Sri Lanka, and they were very knowledgeable. And this was kind of after the tariff scenario with President Trump, so they were very diplomatic, not to you know, not to overcomment, and even the Bangladesh High Commissioner, brilliant. I mean, very well read. They knew where the economy was moving. This is just after also the Bangladeshi crisis, like how they how he basically unfolded. Like this is what happened. This is how things happen. This is why it happens. Explained really really well, and then real. So in our case, I don't see. I mean, even the the businesses because they purely coming from a very business economic diplomacy angle. I haven't seen it from from our diplomats, unfortunately. Probably they may they may not have the depth because I remember the Malaysian. He said, I I actually know. He said a lot of Singaporeans are coming to play golf in Malaysia, right? He said, "I would love to support the same in Sri Lanka because this golf is also like it's a sort of a cult. Like they want to go for different play golf in different places. So he said, "You know, but he said I don't get that support. I would love to make that integration and bring because as we know, golf players are not like you know these are healthy businessmen and all that who really want to invest, and probably they will invest just because they want to play golf. So likewise, they are they were really pitching where they have to, and they were very knowledgeable about everything, and they did not even overcomment even the Turkish High Commission. So they exactly knew. They knew the truth to Sri Lanka. They exactly knew what they were talking about. But I mean, I'm sure there are a lot of very well respected diplomats. But the process is not there in terms of training. So

charindra chandrasena  27:32
the problem there, Dana, with your assessment is the government could turn around and say Trump imposed all these what was it the tariff very high. We were one of the highest countries. We got that down to if I remember correctly 30% and then we got it down even further. Right?

Dhananath Fernando  27:53
Yeah, 2018.

charindra chandrasena  27:55
Yeah, right. So we more than halved it. Diplomatic will, okay. IMF. What does it? Georgia, Georgia is coming. Christina Georgeeva is coming and saying, the government has the trust of the people, and therefore the people are willing to put up with that pain, the pain of reforms, and that's very important. She comes and hugs Harini, right? She's effusive in her praise about the government, diplomatic win number two. Indian relationship came. Modi came here. He was given an honorary title, and India has been at our side throughout, including in the the the example I brought up earlier, where Jay Shankar wanted to support Vijita, and therefore said the same thing that Vijita said, very subtle things, diplomatic queen number three. All of those things they could point to and say, "What are you talking about? This is what we have achieved.

Dhananath Fernando  29:08
The

charindra chandrasena  29:08
proof is in a proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Dhananath Fernando  29:12
So, those things, those are incidents which are quite in favour of us. I mean, real win in the diplomatic world, in my view is basically striking a deal. These are events, of course, like the IMF, even the Geeta Gopinathans visit, the Cristalinas visit. That's that's good. Definitely not denying it because we have been performing well on the IMF programme. That's a that's a win. But those are rather the incidents that we have played well, but diplomatic win is really striking a deal, like you know, a free trade agreement in India's. I mean, there are some credit because they have also changed the diplomatic stance what they had with India, and there has been. I mean, what they did with like even President Prime Minister Modi is giving their King Coconut. And you know all that is good, well played, but the real win is whether we really have the depth to get it going. Like even the trade talks, they they they individually that actually can consider that. I agree, like that bringing the tariffs down and that negotiations was done well. But also there is a regional element that we also need to keep in mind, because the tariff schemes, of course, we negotiated well, but the regionally they wanted to keep you neutral because of the sensitivities in the region. So all that is done well, but at the same time, don't forget there has been also similar wins in that case. If if that is the threshold that we are measuring, because in that case, during President Ranil Bikram Singh's time, he made a geopolitical gambling. I mean, Iranian president was here. He struck a deal with Israel on foreign employment, and then there was some Chinese vessel that was going to come here and some other story. And he was also dealing with India and going with that negotiation, and he managed to convince China on a date negotiation. In that case, even during President Mahindra Japaksa's time, how he got India on our side? Because at one point, when at the height of the war, IMF was dilly dallying. Actually, then India said, "Look, if you are not giving them the money, we are going to support. And then only actually the IMF like accelerated and you know did it. Even during President Chandrika's time, even Minister Ali Sabri during President Gotawai's time to an extent. Even even you know the the split between Mangala Sambarwhir and President Rajapaksa also had happened on like how they managed the you know the the different views probably on the human rights and all that. So striking a deal, I mean, we have to play at that level, and we also have to keep in mind, Chari. Since we are a small country, small economic power, I mean, small economy, we have to on these foreign relationships, we have to punch way beyond our weight class because that's the way that we can. I mean, if we are a globe, if we are dreaming of becoming a global trade hub, our government front representative has to be very strong. Even people really get impressed. We really cannot play at the average level. We have to struck a deal and like get the impression that these guys are solid. But in my view, in my humble view, that theory comes from authenticity because you really cannot create something because the the world is quite interconnected. You really cannot, you know, fabricate something. It comes with authenticity. I think probably Minister Kadir Gama is like what he sent it to Jeremy Pavel, what probably J R this giving that elephant and all that. Probably it's their thing, but if you try to overimpress by doing something unnecessary, and it doesn't make sense. So there are

Speaker 1  32:47
two parts are going to this now. For example, Danabhadra very interesting thing about Jar Jar. I think the greatest diplomatic like speech that was ever done on behalf of Sri Lanka was that famous speech. San Francisco, San Francisco, right? That viral, viral, yeah, viral, viral, and JR is like hailed as a hero in in in Japan, and that's one reason why Japan keeps on you know supporting us, right? So that is one. I think that's. I would actually say that is the single most single most single most great because

charindra chandrasena  33:14
that that has that has long I mean outlasted any JR GAN or even a UNB Ghana exactly. It

Speaker 1  33:21
takes sense to discount as well. Correct. I mean, I mean, it's like almost like and look at the

Dhananath Fernando  33:25
economic impact. I mean, China and like what they are doing exactly. Absolutely.

Speaker 1  33:28
So the other part is like this. There are two parts. One thing in diplomacy. One thing is what you see, but we see in media. That is where I think we have bungled things up. Then you have other part of diplomacy where it's done. 95% of world global diplomacy is done behind doors. It's not in public where the media or anyone doesn't have access. That part I think I agree. They have been doing it for that. You don't need language and all that because it's done one to one. There is no media. There are no mics being held to you and all that. So that so there there is no issue, right? And the other part is on negotiation also. You see, I think with US and all that because it was my primary train, right? Because we only export we export three and a half billion to or 3.6 billion to the U S. We only import about $350 million right. So obviously the President Trump wanted Sri Lankan to buy more American products right and now you can see that within the energy market certain things like certain products are coming from Houston, right? Which is kind of bridging the gap. So these things will happen in the background, right? That's a different story. The problem here is actually the what? How do you put it? It's not the backdoor and you know one-to-one discussion. It's where you go to the public or you know into the world domain where international media is there, and the impression you create to the country, right? Now, for example, when Lakshmi Kadriga or any of the former foreign ministers that were there, I mean, when they go and speak and all that, there's some kind of respect because when you go and bumble and mumble and bungle things up, what happens is the impression what the country gets, right, is bad. That is where the problem is. Even actually, Prime Minister Harin did fabulously well. I think the World Economic Forum. Yeah, you know, I think it's the same thing that you know a year ago another minister went and he had a bit of a he basically fell off the tree, right? And I don't know if he got hit by a bull also after that, but right, so to speak. But same thing, Harini went. The Prime Minister went, right, and she did a she did a relative she did actually she she better very well there. So that's what I'm saying because the end of the day you need to send you know there are horses for horses you need to send so back to our channel discussion and all that maybe the current foreign minister is accepted

charindra chandrasena  35:36
and since you brought him up Minister Sunil Hadan yeah I don't think his problem is only English. I think I think even in Sinhala, he says a lot of problematic things. Problematic things, right? Politically problematic and sometimes technically incorrect also. So that's the thing that I don't think it's just English. Exactly. This is not about English at all. That's the thing, right? I think I I think sometimes they just lack the that savvy exactly that that the attention to detail. Absolutely, which which weirdly the president has. Yeah. So they should just you know take a leaf out of the president's book because for the most part he's very on point. Exactly.

Dhananath Fernando  36:17
That's why I said like if the fundamentals are wrong, it's not even about the reading and being up on news. It's about having that fundamentals, right? Okay, how the global system works, how the humanitarian system works. Like, what is the? How do you respect the other side of the table, and how? And those fundamentals is what matters. And

Speaker 1  36:37
Dana, the thing is, normally there's something called the global order. Now, the global order has been shattered with what Trump has done, right? So the thing is, in a global, when the global order is shattered, you need to the key role in government is not anything else. It's actually the foreign minister because he has to basically the navigation between the murky waters now has become even more murkier, even more dark, and even more dangerous. So then you need to have a person with the right skill to basically navigate through these tough waters. So currently, if the skill is not there, then you have to. There's something called the nationalist. The nationalist is made for that. That's why Lakshman Kadrigama was bought in because he knew how to navigate through those murky skill. And the other thing is, if you like it or not? Lot of the global diplomats and politicians and all that, most of them, you know, have very, very connections with particular universities that have gone. Right? For example, Oxford University, they pride themselves by saying, you know, at any government, at any level, any government, there will be there will be Oxford graduate who has been there. You know, one of our old boys, old girls will be there. So in fact, that's part of the problem of the administration. Constitution also.

charindra chandrasena  37:48
In Britain, there's this club of Portugal and whatever. Yeah, so that comes in

Speaker 1  37:55
different. I'm the same because if you check the last 29, considered elite. Yeah, yeah, considered elitist. If you check the last 29 or 30 prime ministers of Britain, exactly right. Apart from John Major, who didn't have a degree, and and Brown Gordon Brown, who was who was from the who was from the north, he from the University of famous or in Scottish. Anyway, Scottish university, right? It's not come to my head. Apart from those, all the prime ministers have been from Oxford, Oxford or Cambridge. No, only Oxford. Only Oxford, right? Including the present one. Okay, right. So the thing is, so Oxford can price. So because of that, through the university, you get particular connections to this thing. So anyone who has watched Yes Minister, they will understand how the little how the little university web how far it goes, right? So so Lakshman Kadrigama he never stood for elections. Like what I said, he was bought it for a political reason. So because what happens is it's your personal connections also. Yeah. So you need to bring the person who can bet, right? It's like bring now. For example, let's say you know you need to in the last 10 hours or last five hours you need to score 100 runs. You can't bring a orthodox veteran to come and do that. You need to bring a Sana Jaisuria at that time who can lash out, right? So that's the thing. So horses for courses. So if those provisions are in government for to where you can bring outside help, which is outside your political domain. You should do that.

Dhananath Fernando  39:27
We are just speaking about horses. I think the the other elephant in the room is the full prices. Oh my God! Yes. Oh yeah, that's

charindra chandrasena  39:34
the thing. So that's what I was going to get to now. So more than by more than 20 rupees, it has been increased.

Speaker 1  39:42
Yeah, 24 and 26.

charindra chandrasena  39:43
Yeah, right. People are asking, as I mentioned at the at the beginning, why do we need a garment if it is just going to trickle down and then translate into higher? Prices at the pump here. The other side of the coin is, well, it's a global crisis beyond our government's hands. Where do you stand?

Dhananath Fernando  40:10
No, I think definitely this has to be adjusted for the global prices. I mean, it's not a valid question to say why we need a government. Of course, the role of the government is not to manage fuel prices. Prices are determined by scarcity, value of the resources. Now the fuel has become a scarce resource because there is a logistical problem of crossing that Homos Strait of Hormuz. So I think this was a completely a misperception, thinking that the government, any government, not these government, asking for them to you cannot. I mean,

charindra chandrasena  40:44
no, no, no. So then they are the people are complaining about the fact that the government told them that we have sufficient stocks for say 3540, days. Yeah. Now in eight or 10 days, the prices have gone up and significantly, so the people are asking, why did you say you had sufficient stocks?

Dhananath Fernando  41:05
No, that is a valid question. And

charindra chandrasena  41:07
then, and then this apparently vindicates the people who were who were queuing up as soon as the war broke out. Correct. And those people were called, you know, idiots and fools for going and they

Speaker 1  41:21
are the smart ones now. So now they look like the

charindra chandrasena  41:24
smart ones to certain people. Not that I'm saying they are smart, but so I want you to factor that in your answer.

Dhananath Fernando  41:32
Correct. So the first first thing is there's, I mean, government cannot regulate the global prices. Number one. Number two, the the statement saying that we have enough step for 37 days. I think it's right, but I mean right in the sense that okay, we have 37 days, but it doesn't mean that the we should not adjust it with the global prices because what happens is people are aware when the global prices are going to go up. So when they know that with the if the global if the bread price if the crude oil price hits like $100 above, it's obviously they know that the next month the prices are going to go

charindra chandrasena  42:06
up. Yeah, but next month, no, no, why, why? Exactly.

Dhananath Fernando  42:08
So there is a problem there because if the agreement is to revise the prices every month, why did you do it in the middle of the month? In my view, this is a exceptional situation because the the the increase of the price it's a record increase it's a record increase at a short period of time ideally they should have revised it first like now till we till the interim period probably to revise it in every two weeks and have that guideline ready and revise it because this is because by staying till next month probably we could have gone for a fuel shortage because then people know the global fuel prices are going to go up, and you are selling it at a below rate. Of course, I understand it's the stocks that we bought earlier, but then people are going to definitely pump as much as possible and store as much as possible. That is

charindra chandrasena  42:57
my guess. That is my guess why they did it so early.

Dhananath Fernando  43:01
Absolutely. So I think it is the right thing to do. While I agree, there is a problem with the with the I mean the the protocol because if you have said it in the month in month you can't do it also the mid month right then you have to change the system saying look there is a problem we are changing it and with this is the revision, so I'm am because the prices has to adjust, and I think a lot of people were even asking me

charindra chandrasena  43:26
or say that there there should be there is provision. Yes, it's a monthly adjustment, but there is provision in exceptional circumstances, and this exists in exceptional circumstances.

Speaker 1  43:35
Absolutely,

charindra chandrasena  43:36
also

Speaker 1  43:37
mid month. Yeah, so we can just imagine the four queues from the 25th onwards. So one thing is by bringing it on this particular date, what happens is that when prices go up, let's say unannounced, one thing is you can whatever the storage what you have, you can expand it a little bit more because you can. For example, storage is normally done in number of days. It's not a number of litres. They speak in days. So let's say if they say 30, or I think the minister said 37 or something like that, right? When the price goes up, what happens? The 37, you can probably drag it up to more, maybe 45 to 50, because people will you useless. The guy who comes in a car will think, okay, it's too expensive. I'll get into a bus or the train. So those things happen. So then the consumption comes down. Normally, when prices go up, consumption comes down. When consumption comes down, your stock can be you can stretch your existing stock even further, right? So I think the government has taken they don't want to take any chance on that. That is number one. Second is already you see in countries like Australia and all the bombs have gone dry. Now if you look at any of the Australian news like Sky and all that, you will see that you know in particular areas and all that there's no fuel, and in Australia, the price of fuel has gone up by double because Australia is a country that depends because in public transport in Australia is only metro area. It's a massive, it's a massive country, right? And it's a continent, right? I mean, that's why they say no. The distance between Perth and Melbourne is longer than the distance between Perth and Malaysia, right? So it's it's. Continent, right? So and they are having a car is not option. You need to have one something. Even a even a beat up, you know, beat up banger. Even you need to have because end of the day the the travelling distance are so such. So that is number one. Number two is the government also in particular. For example, now the two biggest things that we import is basically fuel and gas. No, Litro already put a kind of a little kind of a like a little graph kind of thing out. I mean, it comes with the litros. I don't. I don't know if litro did it or some outside party did it, but it shows shows where the gas comes from, right? Because until now we have been importing gas from the Middle East until 20 sorry 31st December of last year, it has been the Middle East. That's why in Parliament also there was a lot of discussion on particularly MP Charter Sampraday saying they have changed the supply and other big ao saying that's the reason for the shortage. Right, the reason of shortage was a domestic issue with with the secondary supply we spoke about, that's a different matter. But now the the the gas that is supplied to the country is coming through a different part. It's not coming from the Middle East. It's actually coming from America, right? So which means the ship is not even going through the sewers. They can even come through the Cape of Good Hope and come to the Indian Ocean, and the the the the VLGC. It's called the mother vessel. The VLGC is parked in, as far as I know, in Maldives. And for Maldives, little feeder vessels go and bring the bring the fuel every two or three days, right? So sorry, the gas in every two or days. So because of that gas, we have no issue. Prices will go up, but there won't be a shortage, right? I'm saying that there is no gas, fuel. We don't know because now the the telling tale for me is okay. Australia, even for I'm Australia, the rich car is a G7 country. Australia, how come there is a shortage on fuel? I mean, even at a higher price, if they can buy, so that means the supply system is completely disrupted, right? And there is actual shortage even at a higher price. There isn't enough vessels to bring the fuel in.

Speaker 1  47:07
So because of that, I think precaution revise what the government has done. I think it's okay because end of the day, it's better to have fuel at a higher price or little stock at a higher price than having no fuel at all, right? I mean that's the only way we used to go. So until things settle down, where things become more clear, right? I think we need to go on this conservative. I

charindra chandrasena  47:28
think the the other problem for the government was that literally on the day that they increased the prices, yeah, the prices started coming down. No, no, no. So

Speaker 1  47:39
so that is that that is this thing called Laknochari because you don't know. I mean, the government doesn't know what the future is going to be. President Trump is going to say exactly what he is going to be because he's a guy who will say, "Okay, everything is cool. You know, we have a beauty. I mean, if I'm going to mimic the way he talks, you know, we have a beautiful, we have a beautiful plan. You know, this is the best plan ever. You know, that's how he goes, right? So you don't know the marketers are completely confused, right? So

Dhananath Fernando  48:02
tell my friends. Yeah, yeah. Everything is gonna be okay. Please go on. Just the

Speaker 1  48:12
best brand ever, the best deal ever.

Dhananath Fernando  48:15
Even some might say it will be finished in two days.

Speaker 1  48:20
Taranath like you never seen him before. That's what the audience is thinking now. Daranas like you never seen him before. We are not cutting that. We are giving that, right? So the thing is, you can't. I mean, the thing is, he is the epitome, or he is like the flag carrier of uncertainty, right? So you can't this thing. So in future, if he thinks okay, whatever the thing the the the war he's having with Iran, right, is going to end, and he's going to pull everything out. Then it's fine, but the problem is it's not clear now because okay, let's say US pulls out, we still don't know what BB Netanyahu is going to do.

Dhananath Fernando  48:54
Yeah, and the other thing is I think even the price increase the government did was because I think whole prices went up, but I think about I mean when it was 100 above 100, it was about a 20% plus increase if I remember right. But actually our increase is only about 10% was about so even even if it's after if it comes down, the the adjustment was not actually really reflecting the even the real initial increase that it had, but these are challenging times. It doesn't mean that higher oil prices are indoor cities. Of course, has to come up. I mean,

Speaker 1  49:29
yeah. So the government again, end of the month, end of March, March 34. They can actually put it up again. We don't know. They might bring it down or put it up depending on where the market is. Because actually, the increment the oil price. If you look at the Brent price, Brent has gone up by something like 20 25% It went up to about 14, then it has come down a lot. So the the price adjustment, what we did was only about 10% So which doesn't mean it's going to stick at 10% right? It might if suddenly they say everything is over, and plus we have to understand this also. Even let's say tomorrow it's over, they said. It's over. We are going to continue to some agreement. State of home rules will be open. Still, there is a shortage in the global supply chain, right? Because 200 million barrels used to go through there every day, right? So until that shortfall is reached, that's going to take another couple of months. Because don't forget, the refineries are hit. Correct. Yes. Saudi refineries hit. The Haifa refineries hit in this thing. The Bahrain refineries hit, right?

charindra chandrasena  50:25
And they are stocked that Trump was really unhappy with Israel for hitting Iranian the Iranian refinery. Yeah, refinery because that again spooks the markets. Yeah,

Dhananath Fernando  50:36
and also I think President Trump mentioned that he's going to reconsider the removings of the sanctions for these some other countries probably Russian oil. So then I think that's one reason why the prices came down.

Speaker 1  50:48
Yeah, because the thing is with Venezuela, the problem is the Venezuelan crude is so thick. The only refinery in the world that is designed to basically to do the refinery work, basically crack it, is only the U.S. ones which are in particularly in Texas.

Dhananath Fernando  51:00
Yeah, yeah,

Speaker 1  51:01
right. So because of that, there's going to be you know, and it's very easy to very very difficult to extract, very difficult to transport, very difficult to refine. So it's a massive this right now. Iranian crude is very low on sulphur. This is a problem of sulphur. Iranian light crude, it's called the sweet crude. No, sweet crude is you know Iranian Iran has the best basically the best crude oil in the world, right? That's why that's the reason they call it, you know, Iranian light, right? So, so when there's a shortage of that, because even though Iran was under sanction, I mean, I think we have seen enough videos on social media and all that how how fuel is smuggled to Pakistan through Toyota pickups and all that, and you know it's in there. And the other one is the ghost. Iran used to have a ghost fleet, right? And and how sanction oil was passed on from hand to hand in particular Asian country. So all these things, that's how the global prices there at that at that level. So now, of course, there's a complete supply shutdown. I mean, crude. I mean, I mean, no bullshit, no fuel, no nothing. So until the global supply chain is again fixed, right? That's not going to happen. Even if the war stops tomorrow, that's going to take another maybe two or three months until everything settles down. Then, of course, we know we are back to normal. But until that time, because the thing is, it's not only the crude oil. The crude oil has to be refined, right? The biggest refining in the world is actually in India. So India will purchase now Russian oil; they'll sort it out. Then the other ones is in Singapore, right? And and the global storage funds are in Rotterdam, and there are various places they keep it. So the whole system has taken is given a good shake, so they have to come back to normalcy. Right,

charindra chandrasena  52:44
we are out of time. Out of time. I want to add,

Dhananath Fernando  52:47
if I have like very quick, because there are there's an opportunity for Sri Lanka in my view. At the same time, we have to be quite cautious. This is connected to the geopolitical, the foreign ministers thing. Actually, what Minister Vijaya said was that we are going to adhere for the United Nations Sea of Law of the Sea, Law of the Sea, right? So in fact, there were Sri Lankans who have worked on this law long time ago, and what is missing is I think we don't have a SOP because now with the submarine coming and hitting in our not the territorial waters, economic development. That means because at the moment with the getting learning a lesson from that Chinese vessel because I think for submaria knows this better. I think for submarines to move you have to have map the seabed, including for the the the submarine cables on internet and all that. There has to be some mapping needs to be done. I think that's where when the research vessels comes, the other countries gets a little upset, mainly the India or the US, right? So then, ideally, and sometimes it may also be needed to be done if we, I mean, to make sure that the trade is done smoothly. So for that, Sri Lanka is too small to manage it on our own. So we have to have a standard operating procedure. Okay, if someone is doing the research, that data has to have I mean access for Sri Lanka, and it has to be sort of a consortium where the data being shared with everybody. So I mean access for you know the Japanese, the US, and Chinese, everyone. So then there will be no data asymmetry in that case. I think that's something that we need to do because we cannot manage it on our own. We are too small to get into that geopolitical mess. Number one, number two is with because trade happens with also the security on the maritime route. So this will again reiterate the importance of Sri Lanka's positioning and the maritime route. So there will be some investment, and

Speaker 1  54:38
there are not only maritime. This is the best time to actually to to see how we can restructure and run with Sri Lankan. Correct. Now, for example, I mean Sri Lanka. Now the whole Middle East they they are called the super connectors. No, right? Middle East has four big airlines. Right? Emirates, Qatar, Ethiop, and Turkish. Right? Turkish didn't get effect. That much because they are further to the north, right? But the other ones got really affected. So if they are looking for another sub base where they can use to, for example, run a budget carrier in this part of the world, or they can actually come when there's emergency and they have runways to land, this is a good time to actually to you know instruct and go and never let go of a crisis. Crisis and

Dhananath Fernando  55:20
also the maritime route that we we are our imponsies now highlighted never than before, and also we can use it as an advantage. And at the same time, the shipping liberalisation because there's one reason why these shipping lines and this also this what do you call that supportive services are not present here is because of those regulations that we have, which is like archaic coal again, so those things we have to change immediately if we are serious about making a paradigm. Because that's the global market. The shipping market is a global market which is just passing us. So that is the opportunity

Speaker 1  55:56
exactly because there's a lot of rent seeking in the business. So because of that, they don't want to let go because it's easy money. So, but the thing is, it's up to the government to make sure that you know regulations are changed. Where only a we are not only a small portion of the population or a few people, where the whole country will benefit. So that is something I think. Like Badana said, something that we really will have to push push for. Right. With that, we are winding up. You have a message.

Dhananath Fernando  56:21
Yes. So, become an Advocata insider. This content is completely free of charge thanks to our Advocata insiders. You get exclusive content on exchange rate, stock market, property market by becoming an advocatarisider. But more importantly, you join the policy community who support for economic reforms in Sri Lanka. So, consider joining as an advocacy insider, it's 12,000 rupees a year, 1000 rupees a month. That's it.

charindra chandrasena  56:46
All right. Thanks, Riyad. Thanks, Dana. As always, and thank you for watching. We will catch you again next week.


Transcribed by https://otter.ai