charindra chandrasena  00:03
The QR code is back. Four queues have formed. Four stations are empty, and everybody's going, "Hello, darkness, my old friend. Around midnight on Saturday, the QR code-based National Foal Pass was suddenly reintroduced, despite the government assuring people there were sufficient for stocks for over a month, motorists who are stuck in queues are angry. They're asking if there are sufficient stocks, why the full rationing? How did we end up back here? Is the government to blame, or is it a global crisis that the government could not have done anything about? Let's find out. To understand why a government with sufficient stocks would suddenly limit how much you can buy, you have to look past the pump and into the plumbing of the country, because the truth is, Sri Lanka's energy security isn't just about how much oil is in the world; it's about how much we can actually catch and hold. In the world of energy, there are two ways to store oil: one, rolling stocks, and two strategic reserves, also known as buffer stocks. Think of rolling stocks like the cash in your pocket. It's the money you spend today on lunch or a bus fare. It's constantly moving. In Sri Lanka, our world is almost entirely rolling stock, it arrives at the port, goes into a tank, and within days it's in your car. For example, a tanker filled with 35,000 metric tonnes of petrol and diesel is due to arrive in the island today. A buffer stock, on the other hand, is your life savings? It's the money in a locked vault you don't touch, unless there is a major crisis. The International Energy Agency recommends countries maintain at least 90 days of this emergency food. For example, Japan, which relies on the Middle East for 90 percent of its oil maintains over eight months of strategic reserves. Sri Lanka is on the other end of the spectrum. We have a wallet, but we don't have a bank account. We have never established a strategic reserve. Our entire national supply sits in two main hubs, Kolonawa and Mutragevera, plus 11 tiny regional depots. If you add up every single tank we own, we have a total capacity of roughly 500,000 metric tonnes. Now I know that sounds like a massive number, until you look at how fast we burn through it, especially when panic sets in, and boy did panic set in. This month, the fuse on our fuel supply was burnt much faster than usual. Fear of the impact of the war in Iran led to a massive spike in hoarding. According to the CPC, diesel demand shot up by 30 percent. Petrol demand was even more extreme, rising by a staggering 60 percent as people scrambled to fill every container they could find. This is the why behind the rationing. The government stocks were sufficient for normal use, but they weren't sufficient for a massive spike in demand driven by hoarding. As of yesterday, the CPC has said our national fuel stock will last until the end of April, because our national fuel tank is so small, the government has no choice but to reach for the QR code as a sort of a digital speed limiter. Rationing is the direct consequence of our lack of storage. Without the space to hold a 90-day buffer, the QR code is the only thing preventing the country from going dry before the next tanker arrives, and we aren't alone. Other countries are hitting the panic button too. The Pakistani government has ordered all schools to close for two weeks, shifted to a four-day work week, and mandated that half of all employees work from home. Myanmar has already implemented an odd-even rationing system for private vehicles. Bangladesh has shut down universities and shifted to a four-day work week to conserve energy. While cutting diesel supplies to farmers, even in Australia, regional suppliers have begun rationing deliveries to grain growers. So clearly, it's not just a Sri Lankan problem. However, while these countries are managing the global supply shock, Sri Lanka is also fighting its own internal ghosts, like the Sapugas Kanda refinery, built in 1969. Our only refinery is so old it can't process many modern crudes and produces far too much low-value furnace oil. It only covers about 20% of our needs, for the other 80% we have to buy refined fuel, petrol and diesel that has already been processed elsewhere.

charindra chandrasena  05:49
Buying refined fuel is like buying a pre-made cake instead of a bag of flour. It is significantly more expensive when global prices spike because of the war, we are hit twice: once by the rising price of oil, and again by the high cost of the refining process. We can't do ourselves. This is why you saw two price hikes in a single month. When Brent crude hits $100, we become forced buyers with a 35 day fuse. So, is there a way out? For decades, we ignored the Trincomalee oil tank farm, 85 giant tanks that sat rusting in the jungle. Finally, the government has started to refurbish them. We are also building new tanks at Kolonawa and Muthrajavela, and replacing 90-year-old pipelines that are so old they cause leaks and unload delays. The plan is to move Sri Lanka towards a 90-day safety net by 2028. We are finally treating energy security like a national emergency, but it won't help us right now, because in March 2026 those tanks are not ready, the refinery is still struggling, and the war in the Middle East is still threatening the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of the world's oil. We are currently living in a just-in-time economy. We are walking a tightrope with a 35 day safety net and a QR code to manage the panic. If the supply chain holds, we'll make it to May. But every time you see a banner saying "No Fool, or you take out your phone to scan that code. It's a reminder of the price we pay for decades of neglected infrastructure. We are building resilience, but for now we are still holding our breath, watching the horizon, and hoping the next oil ship arrives before the fuel tank hits zero.


Transcribed by https://otter.ai