charindra chandrasena 00:06 Hi Riyadh. Speaker 1 00:07 Hi Chadi. charindra chandrasena 00:08 Hi Ravi. Hi Chadi. Today we don't have our star. Speaker 1 00:14 Dana is not there. Dara charindra chandrasena 00:15 is not here, but we have the two of you. I think we surely it's a nice combination also. Speaker 1 00:25 Yeah, we might be almost related, no? Almost related, charindra chandrasena 00:27 yes. So, so with this nice combo, we are going to talk about about the latest developments. But particularly now, we have finally had some good news this weekend after more than three months, and we had a lot of false dons, you know, false promises about tending and then not tending. But this time it feels different. This time it feels real. Speaker 2 01:00 Yeah, charindra chandrasena 01:01 because both parties have confirmed, both Iran and the U.S. have confirmed that the deal is on, and the latest is that the deal has been electronically signed, and that the first Iranian ship has already exited the Strath of Hormuz, which means the U.S. naval blockade is off, and there are reports emerging that other vessels are also making their passage, which means the the the blockade by the Iranians is also off. Speaker 2 01:37 Yes, charindra chandrasena 01:38 so I think for for the time being, and we had to be very careful with this. But for the time being, the state of Homos seems like it's open. Speaker 1 01:47 Yes. charindra chandrasena 01:47 Now this came as part of this deal, of which we don't really know much because the details have not been released. But the speculation that frozen Iranian assets worth at least 25 billion is going to be released back to the the country, which is going to be a massive boost to their economy. The Iranian stock market has just hit an all time high, so you know for for the Iranian economy, this is really good news, and they might actually be emerging stronger than they were before. Yeah, ironically, right? Because the whole point was to change the regime and bring that country down, but they might be coming out stronger. On the U.S. side, U.S. stock markets are booming as well. On the good news, and that's going to cascade across the economy, across the U.S. economy, and the global economy as well. So for us as well, we are expecting you know lower lower oil prices, fuel prices. Just initially, what are your thoughts on on on particularly the impact on Sri Lanka, opening reopening of the state of Homo sapien both sides. Yeah, absolutely. charindra chandrasena 03:05 In terms of fuel, Speaker 3 03:07 yes, charindra chandrasena 03:08 that's the main driver of inflation. Speaker 2 03:11 Yes, charindra chandrasena 03:11 how fast do you think it's going to come down? Because now oil prices globally are coming down. Speaker 1 03:16 No. So the thing is, one thing is, you know, I think Ravi will be able to explain this a little bit better. The thing is, you know, you get the contract price, so the contracts are done before this. So it's going to take a while when you finish that contract. You go to the next one. So we don't know the time periods how they are done. If it's a spot market, then it's a different story. But if they're going on, you know, contracts sometimes go on three months and other people do that just to secure the oil sometimes. Yeah, don't know the price because I don't charindra chandrasena 03:39 now. There's a full price revision scheduled for the end of the month. Yes, I don't know whether this will reflect in that full price revision because it's too soon. I feel no. Speaker 1 03:48 The the other thing is it's not only the oil because we're only speaking about crude. The thing is the refining the refinery capacity of the world has come down because the refineries in Saudi, refineries in South Qatar, refineries in Omando, refineries in Kuwait, all have got hit, and plus refineries in Russia have got hit by the Ukrainians. So globally, prices I think on the on on the good news it will come down, but to actually to reflect at the pump, it might take a little bit longer. charindra chandrasena 04:16 Yeah, yeah. Then coming a little closer to home, the currency has been fluctuating, but there was a time when it was rapidly depreciating. Then the government, the central bank, intervened and controlled the depreciation so much so that it started not just halting but also appreciating, wasn't Speaker 1 04:45 it? I think it was more of like a, it was more of a like a panic defending of the currency, right? Because the currency really started to move and it went. So I'll just give you the numbers. In April, central bank bought $83 million of they bought 83 million. Dollars from the market, but in April they sold 95 point 9 million, right? So that's a basically a net. It's it's a net sale, right? Then in May they bought $12 million of currency, and they sold 223 point 3 million. That was basically a panic sale, right? So this has been this has been for the simple reason because central bank didn't manage the liquidity of the market, right? So when you don't do that, what happened was initially from January they were aggressively buying dollars. So when you buy, I think we had this chat before also. When they buy, what happens is you get a lot of liquidity that you get raised because when you buy from the market in you buy dollars foreign currency, you have to pay the market. So you pay in rupees, and that what happens is that goes and creates credit and all that, and really creates imports. That's what now. That's a normal cycle. So, and normally, what they do is even if you buy, you need to mop up the liquidity. So, only two ways you can mop it up. Technically, three, but primarily two because you do it fast. One thing is, if the liquidity goes in, you need to issue some kind of a central bank security and and take the liquidity back into the into into into CB, right? Or the other option is basically you have to you have to sell dollars because when you sell dollars through the market also, what happens is the bank, the commercial banks buy dollars and they give the rupees back to the central bank, which the central bank was very late to adapt, and then what happens is they go on a either or a panic buy or a panic sell, which I think didn't work for the best interest of the country. And another thing I will tell is that the central bank, this is complete central bank's domain. This has nothing to be the government, because normally what happens is when these things happen, the political front is the people go and point fingers at each other, especially in parliament and all that. It's not a government function. Yeah, charindra chandrasena 06:46 special area after the Central Bank Speaker 1 06:49 Act, the charindra chandrasena 06:50 independence absolutely is legislative. It's their responsibility. Speaker 1 06:55 Yeah, it's not parliament's responsibility. Now you charindra chandrasena 06:56 can't say that fiscal policy is dominating monetary policy or the government is interfering. I mean, they can make those arguments, but those arguments won't hold water. No, they don't hold water Speaker 1 07:07 because the reason only thing is in parliament. The only way, like the only thing is in parliament. Parliament can question central bank, and I think which they all did that. The I think Ravi can let me speak better on this. They did question, but the thing is because of the independence and all-it's a complete central bank function. So I think central bank has to bear the responsibility, and they have to be more responsible how they manage this. Because central bank, you know, can't say we don't have the people and all that because people in central bank are highly paid, highly that you know they are what you call professionals in the subject, and they are. I'm pretty sure you know they are highly paid. They are all bill compensated and all that. So if that is the case, it's like a corporate you know entity. You know, corporate entity. If you get all that, you know, you need to perform like that. The central bank has to perform. charindra chandrasena 07:53 Right. Speaker 1 07:53 Simple. So I want charindra chandrasena 07:54 to. I want to bring Ravi in here. Ravi, do you have the same views as Riyadh on the the fact that the central bank was late in you know intervening or that it was a panic selling that happened with the figures that he has presented for April and May and if so what should the central bank have done? Speaker 4 08:23 Yeah, maybe just before we come to that, maybe we'll go back to the situation in the Middle East for the moment. So, if you look at just contrast it with now from 2023, Israel has been bombarding Gaza. So, for for two years that was going on. But you see, it didn't disrupt. It it had no effect on us. The the difference with this one is it has affected because it has affected transport. It has affected flights. It has affected energy prices and things derived from energy, for example, from the from from gas, which is which is which is fertiliser. Right now, 23% of our exports roughly go to the U.S. About 25 to the to EU, and there's there's more to Canada, Mexico, so all of that gets affected. You have the tourism from the Western countries that tends to come through the Middle East. You have, in addition, the remittances, which is probably the most important thing for our people. So all of that gets affected by this war. So now the question is: I think first before anything else, you have to ask: Is this really a durable peace? So I think these the Iranians are fairly sensible; they don't want to fight unnecessarily. And Trump is, I think, wishing to go in for adventure, but not on a. Long-term basis, right? So he also wants to. charindra chandrasena 10:04 Iranians are sensible, Ravi, but they are firm. You know, they have to resilient that they have Speaker 4 10:10 to get because they have got a good Speaker 5 10:12 deal from from India suffered a lot Speaker 4 10:15 from the. They have taken a meeting, so they want to. But they have used their position very cleverly in terms of because the problem is that the spoilers is Israel which doesn't really want this thing. So so whether this will now I hope it will hold because we we we are in a very precious position if it doesn't and let's hope it does. But this thing, you know, I don't know how how much it can it can give way again at any one point because one party to the game is is a spoiler, right? So that's so that's your issue there. I charindra chandrasena 11:01 actually, I actually think Iran is a big problem, but Iran is it? Sorry, sorry. I think Israel is Israel is a. I think Israel is a big. Speaker 4 11:09 Not the most sensible fellow seems to be Iran. Yeah, exactly. I think charindra chandrasena 11:13 Israel is a big problem, but I also feel another potential block that could come in is that this transparency of this deal is almost nil? So once it's signed, only it's going to be released. Yeah, and even then there could be different versions released from both sides. No, that's because Trump's one of his long-standing complaints was about the the JCPOA, which was signed by the Obama administration with Iran, that they released 1.7 billion funds to Iran in exchange for their cooperation with the nuclear enrichment programme. Speaker 1 11:55 So this is 25. charindra chandrasena 11:57 That's that's that's the whole point, right? So they are Trump is very sensitive about this being known by people that any funds have been released. So I think so. What what analysts are saying now is that it might not go from the U.S. to Iran. That it might be channelled through another Middle Eastern country, maybe the UAE, because then they can claim that we didn't release anything, and the other countries did. So it's just all political optics. And Speaker 1 12:26 that's not the only thing. Other things, you know, Iran had a massive problem with cash. No, no, because you know they were running ghost fleets because they were banned from selling oil. They were banned from selling gas. So they were running all these ghost fleets and all that. So currently, if you look at that, I think this deal also says that a particular bank might be taken off from them actually selling their petroleum products, right? So, which means that going forward, but going forward, Iran won't have a problem, or their problems will be greatly mitigated because cash flow is there, right? And their banks will be getting the money, but they were very particularly on the deal was sold that they can't go and finance, for example, you know, rebel groups in the region, for example, you know, Hamas and Hezbollah. So that is also that's the thing. But only problem is how do you how do you check if the money is going on? How can you prove the money if it's going out. So there's a there's a lot of you know smokes and mirrors here. charindra chandrasena 13:24 From what I'm hearing, that is not part of the deal. Funding the three groups, Hamas, Houthis, and no, Speaker 1 13:32 that's right. So so they they are not supposed to do it. charindra chandrasena 13:34 No, that's what they're saying. No, I I think in the final text that's agreed. Yeah, and I might I might be wrong because we don't know, but I think Iran has insisted that that not be a condition. So the the Iranian side, what they are providing is guarantees on the nuclear programme, which which they will discuss for the next 60 days, and opening free passage to the threat of HOMOs, and that they will not be the aggressor in the Middle East. I think I feel like those are the main things, and and maybe there's a sort of a unwritten clause about having a better aggressor in Speaker 1 14:13 the Middle East because if you look, cannot yeah. Is that as I think bound above six countries exactly, but from a US lens, that's why they keep saying. I mean, I mean, they did that whole crazy thing. They went and bombed Qatar, right? Which they had relatively good relationship. So that's what I'm saying. So the thing is, this whole Israel matter how things will go and how things will be sorted out and what kind of agreement everyone will settle to. It's a big question. So because of that, it's it's it's it's it's actually still very early days. Yeah, charindra chandrasena 14:42 right. So because this is an economic show, we want to focus on the economic side of it as well. We are becoming a bit of a geopolitical show, so that's also good. But coming back to the economy and coming back to my question to you, Ravi. Now I want your answer on that. Could the central bank have done anything different? Speaker 4 15:03 So now, if you look at the currency, there were two things that were at work. One was, of course, the the policy that they were following from 2024, so which was increasing the liquidity in the market, the monetary bill, which is driving the credit, which is driving the import, and then you saw the steady depreciation from the 280 of late 2024 to right down to about 3.9 by December January of this year. So what happened afterwards? So on one side, it's the policy that affects your currency. The second thing is the confidence, because you see market participants observe everything that the central bank is doing, right? And when they were buying aggressively in in January, that effectively sets a floor price on the market because people take it that this is going to be where it it stands. So, and I think I was I was told they bought up 314 also during that during that period. So, what happened when the war broke out in on 28th of February was that there was panic amongst the traders. So then, then you have this thing of people start wondering what's going to happen. That's what causes the currency to start bobbing in. Every time you start now, if you don't react to that properly, and and you spread more uncertainty, which when you put on import controls, ad hoc controls, you know it it destroys confidence. So you see the way what the central bank needs to operate in a predictable way and follow rules consistently. You know you suddenly have a restriction on loan value ratios for cars. You certainly want importer conversion. You are changing the rules, right? So that gives a signal to the market that you may not be that you know you are not following a set clear set of rules, and you are reacting to situations. So that creates more fear and uncertainty. So far from calming it, you actually contribute further to the to the loss of confidence. So the speculation arises because confidence is lost. Right now, what has happened now is that because of this ending of this war, you have seen the currency strengthening and stabilising because now people people had assumed the that a lot of the the issues were related to the war. So because of that, debt is going also. Some of the some of that has come now, but but the underlying yeah sorry yeah charindra chandrasena 18:07 exactly so the the LKR isn't particularly strengthening even now. In fact, today it has depreciated slightly. So so but I think that that it noted yesterday. Yeah, exactly. So maybe the the immediate impact of the the war ending. Yes. But whether that is sustainable, whether in the long run. Now, one thing that's going to happen is if there is more stability, the the demand for the dollar may reduce, and therefore the dollar may depreciate or appreciate less than it was during the the conflict time, where and that might help us whether whether we are actually you know in a basket of currencies we are appreciating. I don't know whether that that will be the case. Speaker 4 18:56 So what so so after the thing fell to 350 years or whatever. Then the central bank got intervened, so they raised rates, which is a good thing. They have started selling dollars back into the market, which is has pushed it down and also absorbed some of the excess liquidity from the market. So, and you are seeing other interest rates also have moved up. I think bondages have fallen again on that thing. So so now the question is how far is that enough? Because what you saw was a lot of liquidity driving credit and driving imports. Right now, have these measures been enough? The increase in the interest rates, the the sale of dollars, which has reduced the liquidity, has that be enough to curb the credit and the import demand? Now that is something that's a little difficult to say because you have to wait and see how because you don't know how people will react to the definitely the credit will slow, so that will. But is it enough? And do we need further tightening, further increases in rates, further reductions in liquidity? That is something we have to wait until and see because you'll have to see how people take these things, and so it's very difficult. You can't just you know have a fixed formula and say this is how it will go. You know, it's it all depends on how people take decisions. charindra chandrasena 20:23 Yeah. What are your thoughts on the three measures? There are three specific and distinct measures that the central bank has taken to to prop up the the currency over the past couple of months. The first was that 15% surcharge on vehicle imports. Secondly, the reduction of the loan-to-value ratio again on vehicle imports, and then the third most recent one, which came just a couple of days ago, was the exposure conversion period being reduced. Those measures, just if you give me a binary answer, are going to work, right? Because Speaker 4 21:11 you are not dealing with the problem. You are dealing with or trying to fix symptoms of the problem, right? You are looking at at the import of cars, at the import of this or that you are not you haven't understood what's driving what's driving it is the credit and the credit is because of the liquidity now what will work is the interest rates going up what will work is now the sale of dollars to the market is withdrawing because you're withdrawing rupees giving people dollars to import yeah so so that also so those things will help. These other things, what they'll do is they'll temporarily reduce the demand for vehicles, loan to value ratios, surcharges. You know they'll bring down the but that demand can shift to other things. The exporter conversion rules will force exporters in the short term to bring in more supply, it will fall, right? But if the credit demand keeps growing, your imports will continue to grow. So, so, so those measures are not going to work, and those are the things that break confidence because you are suddenly changing the rule book, right? There is a commitment that you know you you have reserves you are supposed to you have you are not a completely closed economy no that way people wanted you will give them dollars you are breaking the breaking it's not a real promise but but in other words so these are the things that break confidence because you are you are not sticking to a known rule book, right? That's the issue. So none of those things are going to work. charindra chandrasena 22:48 So so they they Speaker 4 22:48 will deflect demand from vehicles. They will reduce. They may they may temporarily bring your your your rate exchange rate down, but it will not solve your long term problem and adds to the problem of confidence. The confidence has to come from consistency, right? Yeah. Dog measures. Yeah. So what you're saying disturb it. charindra chandrasena 23:15 Yes. So what you're saying is the policy rate hike is an effective move, but these these three measures that I mentioned are just going to divert the divert that import demand from vehicles to something. Yes, because Speaker 4 23:32 you are not dealing with the you need to understand yourself. Yes, but Ravi. Now that applies charindra chandrasena 23:39 to the the first two measures, the loan to value ratio reduction and the the surcharge, but what about export exporter conversion? Speaker 4 23:51 If you look at it, if the I'm just growing, I'll just set it up. I'll just set it up. I'll just set it up for the audience, right? charindra chandrasena 23:57 The problem that the the government or the central bank says they are trying to solve. Okay, what they're purportedly trying to solve is exporters hoarding the the proceeds, knowing that the rupee is depreciating, right? Until the rupee goes further, further down, because they are going to you know make a better better exchange at that point. Speaker 4 24:21 So that's what you what they call speculation, and that arises because you have no confidence. Speaker 3 24:26 Yeah. Speaker 4 24:26 You when you when the rupee is falling like a rock, right? Who's going to hold on to hold on to this, right? And who's causing that, right? So so so, and when you make something like this, this makes people they'll they'll comply, but you know it it it it creates more uncertainty in the market because it tells you that you don't really know what you're doing of fixing fixing that. Then you think should I should I bring bring forward my purchaser the that's what he. Importers are going to take, and if you look, exports have been doing well. They've been they've held up despite remittances have held up. Exports have held up. You haven't. Yeah, the the people not converting is because they don't have confidence, right? That is a key. And Speaker 1 25:17 the other thing is, there's energy danger, right? So if you look at a guy who either imports or exports and all that, and you put all restrictions. What will he do? He'll keep the money horses, right? So I mean, has the central bank? No, and when money Speaker 4 25:29 cheat now, I have friends, right? They used to some of it. People are playing the stock market on margins, right? But now there are people who are wanting to invest in vehicles purely as an investment, because your returns on your fixed deposits and bank deposits are so low, right? People are wanting to not to not to buy vehicles to use to buy it as investment. So, so, so when you have rates that are too low, people start doing that as well, so so that creates new demand for for vehicles not to not to drive. People are buying them, and people are going for real assets because when your currency now there was a situation in Turkey because they've had a badly depreciated currency, but some some some some years ago, you know, people were buying washing machines and keeping them as investments. Buying in, you know, and other other home appliances like that. So so so you know you create all sorts of perverse kinds of things. So so so you need to you need to understand where your problem is in liquidity and credit. Control that right. Don't try to do other things. Yeah, charindra chandrasena 26:42 if you could go into that a bit. Yeah, what is the prescription on how to control it for for our audience to understand? Speaker 1 26:51 No, I mean the thing is that the central bank they have all the tools, right? They have the independence, right? So the thing is liquidity management. They have tools to to manage to manage the liquidity in the market. So I mean, is it through overnight market operations? Yeah, yeah. So so that yes, so the various these things are there. I mean, they can they can they can sell dollars to the market, right? Then because the thing is selling dollars also, there's issue because you know there's a IMF mandate also. That's the problem. That's one of the problems. They have to go and they have been Speaker 4 27:21 mandated to go and collect a million dollars by the end of the year for that. So that's so that's another issue. Yeah. So but so so yeah, increasing the allowing the rates to move up by yeah allow the market to play on the yeah without trying to manipulate the rates down allows the market to determine the inter interest rate, and if there is predictive demand, let the let the interest rate move off exactly and curb that demand to the level that you have actual saving, real saving, yeah. And I think Speaker 1 27:53 that is the central bank's primary function, not putting import bands and all that. No, that's not the central bank's primary function. The price stability is this yeah yeah so the price enterprise primary function I mean you get multiple things they have to do but charindra chandrasena 28:06 mainly price stability and actually yes so basically value three because money because Speaker 1 28:13 because it's it's two front because if you take the preserving the value of money but Ravi said right it's two fronts one thing is the exchange rate preserving the value. The other one is the local. So there is a foreign component and a local component. The local is the obviously inflation. The foreign component is the exchange rate. That's both go together. Both hold together because both are the two anchors. You have the interest rate anchor and you have the foreign exchange anchor. So that the central bank has to to manage. Another thing is if the this IMF target is also like very correctly Speaker 6 28:44 said, Speaker 1 28:44 it's a massive issue. So that also, if they are going for that 2 billion additional that which they have to get before the end of the year, I think they will have to look at you know issuing how to look at. I mean, there are tools which they can use to mop up the liquidity. So the problem is you know when you go and do that. Whatever invariably, the interest rates go up. Yes, so you can't exactly. Let's say so. Interest rates are the currency. These are the two angles. But Speaker 4 29:07 of course, when they from 2020 year they they started down there was 2024. They were they were selling down the stock of treasury bills that the central bank was holding, so the money supply was contracting, which is why the currency appreciated from 360 to 280. Right, so so now that was reducing the money supply. So the currency appreciated, the imported prices came down, and so so so now that and because of that there was less credit growth. You have taken the liquidity out, so central bank was able to buy dollars that nobody wanted in the market. So so you know if you don't manage your liquidity, you can't buy dollars. So so you need to. You need to understand that that if you don't, so that's what you need to do. You need to keep pulling the liquidity out of the market if you are going to manage this. But but that also has a cost. I mean Speaker 1 30:13 that loss has a cost. The cost is interest rate simple. charindra chandrasena 30:15 Yeah, yeah. I think that's but a Speaker 4 30:17 lot. Not a lot. I mean, it's manageable. You get into a difficult situation. Paints have to go up a lot, or if you are stable and you take timely action, then because one Speaker 1 30:29 increase will do the job. You have to be predictable. When you become unpredictable, only the market starts going away. And charindra chandrasena 30:37 I wonder if one of the concerns that the central bank has is the impact of you know rising interest rates on the economic growth as a whole. Now, economic growth is not actually part of the mandate of the central bank, right? So, is the central bank almost bringing in fiscal policy and and bringing in the government into their decision making, even though they are not required to, they have been provided independence. Are they are they worrying unnecessarily about the impact on economic growth when that is not part of their mandate? Is that is that one of the reasons that that they are the Speaker 4 31:21 you see you find these strange things on central bank says no growth is not the objective. We we can't do anything about growth. And then when you say you should have lower inflation, they will say no, no, no. If you have lower inflation, so so you know they speak with folk tongue. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Speaker 1 31:47 So I mean, I mean, if you look upon that argument, one can argue saying, okay, let's say 20% If you have 20% inflation, how much growth will you have? How much? If you have 20% inflation, if you want the whole inflation argument, if you have 20% inflation, how much of growth will you have? What do I mean? It's it's it's it's a completely different subject. The thing is, this CV has to stick to their primary function, right? That is to retain the value of the currency or the monetary unit. That is the rupee, no, right? From exchange rate, form inflation, right? For that, they have the tools which they have to use to control the liquidity of the market. So, if they don't do that primary function, then what's going to happen is all of us are going to have, all of us are going to have very leaner pockets. All of us are going to have, all of us might have to continue this thing on, you know going using QR codes, all these problems will just keep on coming. So I think what they have to do is they have to manage the liquidity, which is their priority function, and basically stabilise the economy. Then only growth will come because you will never get growth on an economy which is not stable. True, charindra chandrasena 32:57 right? That's a nice note to end it on. Unless Ravi, you have something to add? Speaker 4 33:02 No, just that you see that the the the exchange rate is a is a critical variable. You know, it affects everybody and everything. You can't just say no. It should be you can't do anything about it and and and allow the thing to, because it is very much within your control, right? And so ignoring that because which is why it it basically all your imported raw materials, your imported food items, your imported products that you use in your everyday life, how to go up plus your your fuel, your electricity, and your water. So, so it's a it's a huge thing. It needs to be right something that they they can't they can't ignore it. charindra chandrasena 33:58 Right. All right. So we'll wind up there, but before we go, we don't have Dana today. Yeah, we don't have the yes. Speaker 1 34:06 The message I kind of jotted a little bit down. Not very good at this. So a lot of the content here, what we do is, as you know, and Advocata is an independent organisation. And by being an Advocata subscriber, inside what happens is you can actually help us actually continue with our work because we don't want to get commercially entangled with anyone. So buying an Advocata insider, you will. It's not very expensive. It's 12,000 a year, 1000 rupees a month. And what you will get is you will get updates before it comes out. Before we make it public. You will be you'll get some insights notes on certain things on the market, certain things on the economy, and it'll it'll be emailed to you. So please support us and for us to do the work we are doing. Right. charindra chandrasena 35:00 So thank you, gentlemen. Thanks, Ravi. Thanks, Riyad. And we will see you again in in another show. And thank you to everybody who tuned in and who keep tuning in. Let us know your thoughts, your feedback, your criticism. We are open to suggestions as well on on topics that you want us to cover in our upcoming shows, and we will see you next week. Transcribed by https://otter.ai