charindra chandrasena 00:02 A Jana. Speaker 1 00:05 Hi Jari. Hi Anushka. Hi Jari. charindra chandrasena 00:08 Anushka is now more regular presence here, no? Dhananath Fernando 00:11 Regular presence somehow again good competition to Riyadh, no? So that's always good competition. Gen Z replacing, I don't know Riyadh. Yeah, charindra chandrasena 00:19 Gen Z replacing, but real is Gen X or Dhananath Fernando 00:22 I don't know. Very very normal. Any substance? charindra chandrasena 00:27 Absence. So a lot going on as usual. The war in Iran is going on, Dhananath Fernando 00:37 which has become now very normal. Yeah, charindra chandrasena 00:39 it's almost boring now. That is going on. Then locally, I mean, a lot on the non-economic front. We had the death of a former IGP last week. Quite unfortunate. We've had today. I mean, today there's Parliament going on, so there'll be certain debates there. But I want to focus today, guys, on Sri Lanka's working population in terms of age and and the demographics around it. Okay, I Sri Lanka has long had this booming elder sector more than other developing countries because Sri Lanka's healthcare system was so far ahead of the rest of the country, right, and therefore so far ahead of a lot of other countries in in our category. Our you know life expectancy has been higher as you know even when we were third world country. This is like something that goes back decades actually. So there was a famous saying that Sri Lanka is getting old before it gets rich, because a lot of other countries face this issue at a certain level of their development. We face it prematurely, and then that itself has some problems. But right now, in terms of the the working age population, which is the peak working age, which is 18 to maybe 35 or even 40, countries like India is having a major demographic dividend on that front, and certain countries are facing that. Certain countries are facing another the other side of the issue. Anushkar, just give us an understanding of where Sri Lanka stands on that front. Speaker 1 02:46 Yeah. So to look into this data, firstly, what we did was we looked into the 2024 population census, right? So this is done by the DCS Department of Census and Statistics. So relying fully on their data, what we have noticed is so how they give the data is they give it per cohort. So there's an age cohort, for example, there's zero to four age, then five to nine, so on. So that's called a cohort, right? So when we look at our age cohorts, we have a massive bulge of the population in the 10 to 14 and 15 to 19, right? But the population after that is quite low. So if we put it into numbers, the population between 10 to 24 as of 2024, because this whole population census was done in 2024, right? So as of 2024, we have 5.1 million people in the 10 to 2024 cohort. 10 to 24. 10 10 to 24. We have 5. 5.1 million, and within that, 1.8 million is in the 15 to 19 cohort. 1.7 million is in the 10 to 14 cohort. So, between 10 to 24 only, we have 5.1 million, and our total population is just below 22 million, right? So, we have a massive bulge in this peak population that's coming up. I mean, as of this as of 2024. So now it's 2026. So you can expect someone who's 10 to be 12 now. Someone who's 19 to be 21, right? Someone who's 24 to be 26, right? So we have this massive population that's entering the workforce. Some of them have already entered, right? And the rest is entering as we speak, charindra chandrasena 04:40 so six of those years, 18 to 24, are presumably either entering the workforce as we speak, or are already in the work. Speaker 1 04:53 Already in the work, right? Yes. charindra chandrasena 04:54 And the other 18, sorry, other eight years because it's 10 to 24 now. Yeah. Eight years from 10 to 18 or 10 to 17 is the one that is we are we expect we expect Speaker 1 05:06 yeah we expect but we also have to keep in mind that even though like for example our retirement age is about 60 right but people do work after 60 just like that even even though we consider our working population maybe to start after 18 there are a certain set that starts maybe after 15, after 16, because not everyone like goes through the entire schooling system, right? More, charindra chandrasena 05:28 more and more now, and and you might have a better idea than me on this. More and more people in that age group of say 13 to 16 are chosen to forego A levels. A levels exactly. There's a Speaker 1 05:45 higher trend in students moving for vocational training and things like you know foundation and all that. I think once you exit the school system and you enter foundational education, you enter into bachelor's. You have the chance of working part time, so this also, you know, gets captured in the working population. charindra chandrasena 06:05 Yeah. What's interesting there now is that I think the current generation of that age is figuring out what they want to do a bit earlier than we did. Dhananath Fernando 06:15 Yeah. charindra chandrasena 06:15 You know, because we didn't have specialisation at that age. Absolutely. We just went through Dhananath Fernando 06:21 the you know we just went through the motions of doing the O charindra chandrasena 06:23 levels and then doing A levels and Dhananath Fernando 06:25 we were happy. I remember like O levels. I mean after O levels to A levels till results comes like there's a gap. No, we are the one no enjoy. We expected it to be further extended because then you have more free time, no studying. charindra chandrasena 06:38 Exactly. Dhananath Fernando 06:38 But now things have changed. Yeah, people are. But Anushka, interestingly, so that means now earlier as Chavi initially started, our even even for for me the perception was Sri Lanka is having an ageing population, so we have to get prepared. So do you mean to say that it is wrong now? It's like the youth population is higher, like 5.1 million from 10 to 24. Does it mean that our population is not ageing, or how does it come? So we Speaker 1 07:04 do have an ageing problem as well. Okay. The thing is, if you graph it, let's say you start from the young people and go towards the older, it's just the two extreme edges that have the highest population, and the middle you see the dip. Right. That's the problem that we have. Like after 25, so we were we are doing this other report on. So what charindra chandrasena 07:26 are the what are the numbers there for 25 onwards? Speaker 1 07:28 Yes. So the biggest difference between your age and the population starts after 19, right? So if I give you the difference, what do you Dhananath Fernando 07:40 mean by the difference? So Speaker 1 07:41 yeah, for so what we did was this population census was done in 2024. So for example, someone who was 15 as of 2024 is was born basically in 2009. Dhananath Fernando 07:54 Okay. Speaker 1 07:54 So yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. So what we did was we took the birth numbers and then matched it, matched them, added them, and matched them according to the cohort, just to get an estimate, right? To see what the difference is between what the population says and you know what was the birth numbers. So Dhananath Fernando 08:09 basically, what you what you mean to say is that you check. Okay, someone in 15 has born in 2009. So you check how many people actually have born in 2009, and actually what the census says, how many people, how many of them are staying in the captured in the census, who have born in 2009, nine exactly. So Speaker 1 08:30 basically, who is 15? Okay, basically born. So since it's done cohort wise, we added up the years 2005 to 2009 will give you who is 15 to 19 in 2024. So when we looked at the data, the gap is quite consistent, only up to 19. After 19, you see a massive difference that starts increasing. I'll get to that number soon. But coming to your previous question on what happens to the population, what happens according to the census that they have given on 20 in 2024 after so this was after the 20 to so 15 to 19 is the highest after 15 to 19 so 15 to 19 let's say it's one point it's 1.79 let's assume it's 1.8 million so after 15 to 19 we have 20 to 24 age 20 to 24 is 1.6 million. charindra chandrasena 09:24 Okay, so it's Speaker 1 09:24 reducing, and then 25 to 29 as of 2024 is 1.3 million. So the dip is massive. charindra chandrasena 09:34 Yeah, but but keep going on. Speaker 1 09:35 Yeah, and then 30 30 to 34 is 1.4. So we have dropped below 1.5, Dhananath Fernando 09:42 right? Speaker 1 09:43 And then 35 to 39 is 1.4 million again. Then 40 to 44 is 1.6, which is a little higher. But again, 45 to 49 is 1.4, right? charindra chandrasena 09:54 Right. So you're you're I mean you're hovering in that yes. 45, 1.4. Yeah, that range. The so what this tells me is that maybe this demographic dividend that we are going to get in the next 10 years or so will plummet afterwards. Speaker 1 10:21 Yeah, it will plummet given we remain the same without the reforms that we are pushing for, without the without creating. charindra chandrasena 10:30 I'll come to the reforms. Yeah. I mean, yes. Speaker 1 10:32 That's if simply answering your question. Yes. If if charindra chandrasena 10:35 this trend trend continues, all other factors being the same. Yeah. We are going to have a shortage of our working population. Speaker 1 10:45 Exactly, because when you look at the, I'll give you the exact differences. So when you look at the numbers, so I told you I was comparing when they were born versus what the population says. So in the zero to four age cohort, you see a difference of like 115,000, and then the next cohort is 83,000. So that's little less. charindra chandrasena 11:07 Yeah, just just so that the audience understands, you are saying you have taken the number of registered births in a certain year, Speaker 1 11:16 year, charindra chandrasena 11:17 and then pushed over. For example, a 2009 born person in 2024 would be 15 years of age, so then you have checked. Okay, how many people were born in 2009, and then according to the census of 2024, how many 15 year olds are there? Speaker 1 11:35 Exactly. So charindra chandrasena 11:36 the gap between the birth number and the actual census number is what you're talking about, and you're saying it is higher for people above 24 years of age. No, Speaker 1 11:51 above 19. Above 19. But after 19, their difference increases. Okay, now we can assume for zero to four, we can we can consider child mortality, right? We can consider people going abroad with their families when you're young, right? You can't we can't expect when you are before 15 people going abroad for studies. It's there, but it's very less, right? So it's either death, it's either migrating with the family, you know, a combination of different factors, which is very hard to put in. Which is also charindra chandrasena 12:20 out of their hands. Yeah, exactly. Right. So Speaker 1 12:23 let's let's start from the cohort zero to four. So zero to four cohort has a difference of 115,000. Then five to nine, the difference is 83,000. So that's less. Then 10 to 14, the difference is 66,000. charindra chandrasena 12:37 Right. Speaker 1 12:38 Right. 15 to 19 is 77,000. Now we are starting the increase. 20 to 24 is 200,000, right? 25 to 29 is 296,000. So this trend continues after 19. Basically, after there is 19, that's where the difference. What we are trying to do in our study, if we are trying to see what adds up to the increase in the differences, yes, we can assume that deaths after 19 are higher, right? But when we looked at the figures, more males and even females-I think it was more males-more males died. The highest number of males that died were in the 40 to 44 cohort, right? And the 19 issue were bit lower, right? So there's a higher tendency that proves the fact that a lot of people are migrating, charindra chandrasena 13:30 right? Okay, so it's it's part that they are. I want to look at why this should be a problem. Why why is it something that should worry people, Dana? Dhananath Fernando 13:43 Yeah. So why people should worry about it is for two reasons. One is as you can see, there is a lifestyle change that is taking place. That means people are not willing to have kids, not willing, or for some reason I don't know the exact reason to be honest, but for some reason people are not having have decided to not to have kids, so that means on the business. I mean, if you are in business relating to any other kids items or anything that you are going to basically shrink, including the schools, including nurseries, including all baby care products, all that is going to get impacted. Number one, number two is that also shows in a long run, zero to four in like 15 years time. That means less people are entering the labour force because less and less children are being born, and we can see that trend. So that means after 10, there's 1015 years there's a problem coming up. That means not many people. I mean, when company starts recruiting people, you really don't have people. That's the other problem. The second problem that you need to worry is while there's a problem with the you know zero to four, four to eight cohort, there's another problem or a problem. It's actually an advantage that there's a big. Bulk joining the labour force, as Alushka was speaking. So two things can happen if there are no job opportunities for them. If there are opportunities, there's a demographic dividend. So people should be able to recruit more. People should be able to actively, like you know, these are the healthy young men and women who can contribute, who can work. But if there are, I mean, that's a demographic dividend which you spoke about, India, younger population, we have a bulge. But what if if we don't have opportunities? That's the threat or the risk factor. So, like Anushka's slide, if it's broadening, who the people are born after 19, and if you compare with the census, how many actually staying in the country? If it start broadening further, that means all these demographic dividend become a demographic dividend of Australia, New Zealand, USO, wherever, because then that means these people are migrating or Middle East, right? So that's the other worry. Third one is if they actually the real worry. So that that means again we are wasting our money, all public education and all that. You are wasted your money and also young, talented people. And don't forget, these people are smarter than you and I. We have to admit because I mean I don't know. We haven't grown in like exactly. I didn't have a phone till I did. I mean till I entered university. So these guys are born with internet and social media and all this tech coding and all that. It's just like you know, they know how to do it. So it's an educated population compared to the previous generation. We have to give them give them that, and then the other thing is if they don't have opportunities. Let's say also the labour migration tightening up in Australia and wherever. If they tend to stay, and if there are no opportunities, generally as we know, what the history says is this ends up in a unrest, charindra chandrasena 16:42 revolution. Dhananath Fernando 16:43 Revolution, right? So those are the ones that we have to worry about on that bulge. The other end that you need to worry about is that's till about 24, and then people are slowly, slowly shifting, shifting, shifting to the ageing population, and then you have a massive ageing population growing at the same time. So these guys are getting pressured because you have to have high healthcare cost, all that in the tail end, and these guys have to work for it. And there's not many people coming up in the system as well. So on one side we have a demographic dividend. It's our choice to make it like an advantage. If you don't make it an advantage, it will likely end up as a waste of money or unrest or a threat, and on the other hand, we have a ageing population which we have to again look at everything. So while these are the factors, sorry, because generally business operates on day to day basis, but these are the long term things that the businesses needs to think about how things are changing and also the policies what made probably it had to re-evaluate why people are not having children? Is there a cost factor? Is there a lifestyle change? Is there something else? And why people are migrating? Is it less of opportunity? So, in my view, for for us to get the maximum dividend, we have to create about 100,000 companies, and to create about 1 million minimum job opportunities for these people because already some people are retiring, but if you if you don't create nine about a million jobs and million jobs won't come easily, you know you can't run like you know one day cut days and all that. No, you have to have more revenue gen. I mean profit generating companies for that you have to work very hard. charindra chandrasena 18:21 Yeah, just to add to that, Dana, I think another thing is, in terms of the macro picture, an economy is sustained by people. Yeah. So economic activity is stimulated by people buying and selling, right? Participating in the economy. If you have people in a in in that age group where consumer spending is high, right? In the sense that they buy a greater variety of things. Yes, like the 55 year old might spend a lot on a on a cruise or you know all of that, but the the young population in any country is what actually keeps the economy going. That in in terms of you know all this consumerism is about the young population. They are the ones who go to concerts, go to clubs, you know, take part in the economy in that way, and they are also the ones who really, you know, entrepreneurship is based on them. So if you have a lack of that cohort in those terms, then that can suffer as well. The other thing is, if we have an ageing population, and we have less people in this age group. That ageing population is likely to be dependent on this young population. So, for example, in a family, one person who's maybe a 25, 35 year old could be supporting. Both their parents, and there won't be anybody else in that family to share the burden with. Dhananath Fernando 20:10 Correct. charindra chandrasena 20:11 Maybe lack of siblings or whatever, right? So that just increases the pressure on on on that age group as well, right? No, I agree. I agree, Dhananath Fernando 20:23 and also like there will be also challenges of find. I mean, for healthcare sector, if you recall, sorry, most of the people who migrated, even I'm sure you know, I know the bankers and even quite technical people who did technical jobs went for caring jobs in the in Europe and in the other parts of the world, so the same need will be there now for us. Yeah, I mean, who is going to take? I mean, regardless you have children or not, or you know, who is going to take care? Because when the population is shrinking, yeah, there's very productivity wise, it don't it doesn't make sense having your younger population in like taking care of elders because they have to contribute to the economic growth and out of the factor markets is economic. I mean, labour is one of the main factors, so that's where the demography challenge comes in. Yeah, and charindra chandrasena 21:13 just to add to your point about the care work, people think now AI can replace a lot of things that humans do know. Dhananath Fernando 21:21 Yeah, charindra chandrasena 21:21 care work because of the you know inherent empathy that is required. That you know care that is required. AI is not going to replace care work anytime soon. They can create a system which talks to the person, but who is going to actually take the elderly person who who is not mobile to the bathroom. Absolutely right. So there are there are issues like that in terms of now the economic impact. Generally, I think we have a good understanding. I also want to understand why, what is if you had to, I don't think you need to take a guess, but you can take a guess or tell you tell me through the research why is this happening. Speaker 1 22:13 So we need to understand when this when we're talking about a change that's happening in the demography, the demographic change is to a lot to do with the birth rates that are happening, right? We have seen data that have been put out, and we're trying our best to verify this data that our birth rate is falling below replacement levels, right? That that means if you take the difference between the number of people that are being born and the number of people that are being that are dying, the addition to the population is falling, and we have seen this trend. I have the data. We have seen the trend. It's falling. It's falling by 1000, 10,000, 20,000. It's falling over time. So, but we need to understand that this is specifically do with you know the birth numbers only because I looked at the marriage numbers, the marriage numbers aren't falling, right? So I compared with the number of marriages and the number of births. It's the number of births that are declining. charindra chandrasena 23:12 Are you sure marriage numbers are not falling? Marriage Speaker 1 23:13 numbers are not falling. There's a small list, but it's not like it's not charindra chandrasena 23:18 it's not as pronounced. It's not pronounced. No, no. You see, Speaker 1 23:21 there's a slight. Yeah, yeah, because because marriage numbers have been. Yeah, I'm not saying it's increased. Yeah, yeah. It has gone down a little bit, but not not in a. Yeah, you can't. Yeah, I mean, if you compare that with the birth numbers, it's technically not falling. There's no, there's no drastic shift in that. charindra chandrasena 23:34 What may be happening is that more people are getting married, Speaker 1 23:37 but and they're charindra chandrasena 23:39 choosing either not to have children or to have children late. Speaker 1 23:42 I think we can back the fact that they're having children late because I looked at the the mean age of the mother at childbirth, the first child. So in 2007, the the age of the mother was about 28 when they had the first child, right? But in 2029, this increased to 29, right? So charindra chandrasena 24:04 2024, you mean? Right? Speaker 1 24:05 2029. Sorry, 2019. Correct me. I'm sorry. 2019. It was 29. So the trend charindra chandrasena 24:13 from 2011 year 29 Speaker 1 24:15 2007 charindra chandrasena 24:16 2007 to 2019. Yeah. Speaker 1 24:19 So it has increased. So the trend. I'm looking at the graph at the moment, it's a very steep rising line, right? So the mean age of the mother at the second childbirth is 29.8, so basically close to 30, right? So they are either opting to, like you said, not have the child, but we can back the fact that they are having children late, right? And I looked at the mean age of men and women both getting married. There's a higher jump in the number of women that are getting married later. Like men, it was I think 27 and then 28. The change actually the increase, but women it went from like 24. To 26, a large difference. I have the numbers, but yeah, it was a large difference between men and women. So marriage is happening. We can we can back that up, but it's the it's the birth rates that are falling in this the the whole country. Okay. Therefore, that is the main reason we highlight why we need to make use of this demographic dividends that come, that's coming, the demographic bulge that's coming. charindra chandrasena 25:28 Okay, why? How do we make use of it? Speaker 1 25:32 Well, there's there's no one answer to this. Firstly, charindra chandrasena 25:36 and Dana, feel free to come. Yeah, sure, sure. Speaker 1 25:37 Yeah, firstly, like Dana mentioned, we need to understand that this generation is smarter, right? We have looked at we have one researcher working on looking at the the pass rates, you know, university entrance. So, in 2024, 73% of the candidates qualified for A levels, right? So these are 73% of the candidates who sat. 73 were eligible for A levels. 67% they were eligible for university entrance. So this has been increasing. We have a digital literacy at 90 of 91% right? So we need to understand that if we are to make them stay, because the trend is that they live in the country. If we are to make them stay, we have to give them the right jobs that match their skill, right? And jobs can't be created overnight, and jobs can't be randomly given. You can't just hand out jobs. To create jobs, you need growth. You need growth. You need investment. You need businesses, and growth comes through productivity improvements, right? So a business needs to be productive in order to expand to create the jobs, we can't randomly create new markets, right? Now, if I give a basic example of a farmer, a farmer needs to be able to produce more efficiently with less resources, less time, and less money. So, if a farmer can do that, a farmer has more produce. If a farmer has more produce, like we can't guarantee the farmer sells everything, but he'll sell more than before, right? And that will give him more money, more income to invest in technology, to hire more people. So this indirectly you can see how it gives more jobs, how we adopt more technology into things. So this is how we keep this bulge and make use of them. Dhananath Fernando 27:15 And also, Shari, the important thing is also the new markets creation. Now, for an example, when we were schooling, salons was wasn't a thing, right? I mean, I cannot recall lot of. I mean, sir, charindra chandrasena 27:27 beauty salons, beauty salons, yeah, not as much as this. Not as much as this, Dhananath Fernando 27:30 right? I mean, for a wedding, I mean, for a wedding, I remember even my parents. They, I mean, if you are the bride, you go to address. I mean, someone to you know for the hair dressing and everything, but if you are just participating at the wedding, you are you are not pleased to go to the salon. That's what I react. charindra chandrasena 27:48 No, it was not such a thing. It's not such a thing. Dhananath Fernando 27:51 But generally now things have changed. For every wedding, family wedding, females have to go for a salon, and also I'm sure the product range is has also like quite different like for yeah colouring but I don't know I'm not the most fashionable person even for men right even for men that's it and even let's say like a category like gyms when we were schooling I don't know I remember even our school also get to get a gym is a big thing right you know but now it has become a trend, and everyone generally goes for a hitchy, right? So those are new markets that has come up with all sorts of lifestyle changes. So likewise, if we were to create the jobs, we have to explore these new markets at the same time. And earlier, like taxi hailing wasn't a thing. I mean, when we were going to school, like even going in a two-zero, it wasn't the first prior. You take the bus. I mean, if you don't have a personal vehicle. But then now it has become even the people who have personal vehicles now opting out for cabs and taxis and all that. So there are new markets developing. I think we will continue to explore new markets to create these 100,000 jobs because you can't really absorb this for the existing businesses or just expanding the existing businesses. For that, you have to create new businesses, maybe in the existing industries. At the same time, you have to create new markets, also to basically create these new jobs. Is what I feel. charindra chandrasena 29:20 So, what you guys are talking about is now we have this demographic dividend looming, right? That we are anticipating, we will lose out on that if we don't create the right economy for them to thrive in. I mean, the the Speaker 1 29:37 data proves it, right? In the sense that charindra chandrasena 29:40 you are saying it has already started. It has already Speaker 1 29:42 started. Yes. charindra chandrasena 29:43 Yes. What if somebody were to say that this is mainly due to the economic crisis, which is an anomaly? I mean, let's face it. Okay, it was the first in a 70-year period. And let's hope we don't see that ever in our lifetimes again. Are you not attaching too much importance to this one period? Yes, there is migration from Sri Lanka throughout. There has been even after the war ended, but the spike is because of the economic crisis, and we shouldn't worry about that happening in the years to come. Speaker 1 30:29 Just one sentence that I've found on this whole migration thing. So migration numbers in 2025 were higher than migration numbers during the crisis, right? So the small thing that I've written on the paper, net migration has actually increased well after the crisis, right? And we had a net migration of negative 30,000 people in 2025. So charindra chandrasena 30:54 okay, Speaker 1 30:55 this shows that the crisis. Do you charindra chandrasena 30:57 have the figures? Just show that. Yeah, I'll I'll Speaker 1 30:59 get you the trend. This just the report that I've written. Right. Right. So. charindra chandrasena 31:04 So 30,000 migrated Speaker 1 31:06 net migration. Net migration is in 2025. Right. And these net migration number is a higher number than in the crisis years. Yeah. So Dhananath Fernando 31:15 now just to argue on the other side. So it may be because also the post. I mean aftermath of crisis, right? Because 2022, you know, it's not during that period of crisis, but after the crisis, it will take people to think about Speaker 1 31:28 migration. Yeah, you know. And and charindra chandrasena 31:30 and and the other thing is, it doesn't it doesn't happen. You're not. You're really not well. Dhananath Fernando 31:36 I'm not well. Last time you you have not been well for a long time. Long time, charindra chandrasena 31:39 but now the the other side, the other thing to add to what Dana said is, it doesn't happen overnight. No, Dana. Yeah. Where this migration, you apply and you apply and you have to get that document. That document you just prove that you're going to come back, get the finances, all of that. So it takes time, right? Yeah. So so this could be that sort of backlog that is being cleared also, but the point I think stands in the sense that there hasn't been a drastic increase in now there is a perception that okay so 2024 September we got a new president 2024 November we had a new government it's a new Sri Lanka one president actually had a slogan saying, "Ina hit an attack. You have to make this country a country that you want to stay. Now somebody could argue that we have that country now, right? But I mean, we may have that country for sure in the next few years. We don't. We have to Dhananath Fernando 32:41 create that country. We have to create charindra chandrasena 32:43 that country, but I don't know whether we are there Speaker 1 32:46 yet. Yeah, because in 2024, I just got the figures. The 2024 net migration was 27,000. charindra chandrasena 32:52 Okay. Yeah. 2025 Speaker 1 32:53 is 30,000. 30,000. Yeah. Right. So even though we did get the new government and we had hope and all that the trend doesn't. Still, the trend doesn't back. And also, Dhananath Fernando 33:03 I remember we, as per the data earlier, the perception was sorry people are leaving for like domestic work, no? And it's females who have mainly migrated. You know, remember we were saying like when they were coming from the duty free, they are buying washing machines, TVs, after spending. I mean, after you know working for 1015, years in Middle East and all that, but now it has changed that mainly the males and who are skilled males. It's no longer like the unskilled people are migrating. Skilled ones are the one who are migrating. At the same time, with the age cohorts of this 19 to 2530, is the stretch, and females who are migrating are at the latter stage in life, like 4550, It's more females are migrating, so that also is worrying. That means they really are migrating because they have run out of all other options of probably earning income. So those trends are taking place, which all the businesses, everybody has to be keep in mind that while we focus on like little things, the entire you know landscape is changing. charindra chandrasena 34:14 Is it also not a case of Sri Lanka still being yes, we are now a middle-income, upper-middle-income country, but in the real sense, people don't feel like the upper middle income, Dhananath Fernando 34:27 right? charindra chandrasena 34:27 And also, we just we barely qualified for it. Yeah. So, isn't it a case of if Sri Lanka's as Sri Lanka continues down, you know, its fiscal consolidation path, its reforms process. Sri Lanka will become a more prosperous nation, and this migration trend will stop automatically. Speaker 1 34:52 Yeah. So, just if I am to say, we can we can hope that you know in the coming years, in the coming decade, we will. And this, you know, will be, you know, a much richer, a better country. But people won't win. You know, this generation is smarter, and they want option. They they have the skills, right? They have the options of leaving, and they have the talent, and they can attract global jobs. You know, and we've seen many people move to like countries like Australia for these jobs. So that the whole sense of this argument is that the government will take time to achieve all its goals and all its promises, but people won't wait. And we can see that after 19, they haven't waited; they're leaving. Dhananath Fernando 35:39 Let's put Anushka on the spot. Now, which age cohort that you fall into? Nah, Speaker 1 35:43 25. Dhananath Fernando 35:44 Okay. So, just on your point of view, just to understand. Speaker 1 35:49 Yeah. Dhananath Fernando 35:49 What made like in your generation? What are they discussing about? Actually, is it like migration is a thing? Like they all like generally like during our time, it was just the thing. I mean, we all know we were going to do A levels and then you know do work for a bank or something. I don't know. I mean, we all had aspirations, but that was the thing. But in your generation now, what are they actually talking about? Is it like to migrate or is it to settle your? Well, in my generation, everyone has Speaker 1 36:18 migrated already. That's the problem. All of my friends. If you take 90% of my friends, they abroad. Dhananath Fernando 36:23 Okay. Speaker 1 36:23 Everyone's in Australia, is in the U.S. Right? Is in Malaysia. They all they are all away. Do you Dhananath Fernando 36:27 think is it an urban thing or is it also like the? I mean, no, it's Speaker 1 36:31 not really urban because my friends' distant relatives and my distant relatives are in the Middle Eastern countries working as chefs. You know, working as receptionists in other countries, working as you know these bell boys, the room boys, yeah, and because you know the lifestyle is better, the the living standards are better. Yes, income wise, it might not be much. You might be earning about 100,000, 150,000. But then it's the lifestyle that they get to you know enjoy there. I think many people in this generation seek a lot of you know experiences more than materialistic things. You know, so at least a life where you can live abroad and you know you know manage your expenses, even if you don't have to save, as long as you can you know relax and wait in a nice country. You know, you don't have volatility. I charindra chandrasena 37:20 just I just I just also feel that there are certain factors that would have also contributed. Not that the main issue isn't there, like for example, girls being sent abroad alone is more of a thing now than it was in our generation. You know, because parents had major concerns about a girl living alone in another country, what she would get up to, and all these you know cultural traditional views, slowly going away because we are talking now you know a couple of decades, right? Mobility as a whole has increased where airfare is cheaper. Speaker 1 37:58 Cheaper, charindra chandrasena 37:58 you know. I remember travelling to the U.S. used to be so much more expensive than it is now. We have more, you know, budget carriers, and some people are choosing to take like three transfers because it cuts cuts down. So there are factors like that also that it's it's I think the larger point stands though. Yeah. But there are factors like that, and also the fact that the world is so connected now that I mean back then you really couldn't apply to a job in another country in in the way that you can now. Yeah. Because we are talking. I mean, technically, I mean, Facebook was just coming in, right? Facebook wasn't the thing. Now, now Facebook is not a thing now because Instagram came, and then Instagram is also not really a going-away thing because TikTok is there, and the TikTok is going to be overtaken. So that's the you know. So there are there are factors like that, but but it's it's that's the Speaker 1 39:00 whole point of the fact that they have options exactly they have options they won't wait around charindra chandrasena 39:04 they won't wait around that's that's that's a very good point and and I think they are less patient as a generation exactly yeah Speaker 1 39:09 because they're used to quick stuff and also Dhananath Fernando 39:11 the the the point that Anushka made about the experience of like people because I think the previous generation even like our parents and all of them they will save kind of everything for the next generation taking the hit, but in this generation, as he says, they want the experience rather than the income. So then you can experience a different lifestyle, and you are not in that you know considering about the next generation. So that's interesting. charindra chandrasena 39:37 Yeah, yeah, yeah, and and the experiential part of it, part of it, where where they would go to. I mean, they would go to a concert, but they would stay at a very you know low end, maybe a like an Ibis somewhere, which is like a hostel. Speaker 1 39:53 Yeah, charindra chandrasena 39:54 but then they will go to the Coldplay concert or go to you know whatever. Dhananath Fernando 39:58 But this is one interesting thing I think. It's not kind of not relevant and relevant to this conversation. One guy who met me somewhere in US, but that's what he said. He said, "Look, one reason why China basically cannot take over the world is because of their child policy that they had. He says because like a country becomes a superpower when their generation thinks about the future, you know how to retain that and all that, and that generally naturally comes when you have children and when you think about them. If you are not thinking about them, you are just you cannot be. I mean, at one point, okay, you you may be leading the race, but at one point with these generations shift, and when you don't have enough people, system collapses. I'm not endorsing his view. No, no, no. But I thought like it may be there may be a point what he's trying to say is charindra chandrasena 40:53 absolutely, and and China is facing a major problem on that front because China's now one child policy that they took way too long to abolish because they thought as soon as it's abolished, people are just waiting to have. But they didn't realise the times are changing. So 2016, it's exactly 10 years ago. 2016 they abolished it, and they haven't seen that you know boom that they were expecting, and they are having to give more incentives to families to to reproduce. Japan is going through this issue. Japan is like the the poster child for this issue. You know, European countries, you most EU countries are facing this issue. So, but but I think ours is unique in its own way because we are having that and the the migration. Correct. So we are having like double trouble. Dhananath Fernando 41:50 Yeah. charindra chandrasena 41:51 Right. Recipe for disaster. Are there any any any specific things before we wind up? Now we are almost out of time, but there's anything specific you want to add, and and you also don't about can we how helpful would it be for us to expand our tech sector, IT sector, you know, because because you mentioned that they are digitally literate more than any previous generation, right? So the tech first jobs. I mean, every job is a tech job now, but like the tech first jobs, is that maybe a measure that we can think about? Speaker 1 42:28 Yeah. So I think in general the tech sector is expanding. So that is I think something that's naturally happening with the global trends that are happening. Right. I think I'm not saying we shouldn't, but as much as we give focus on that, I think, like Dana mentioned, we have to look into new markets. And now we can't expect the government to do everything, right? We can't expect the government to start a business and employ people. But the government has the the power to ensure this happens faster. The government has the power to make the ease of doing business faster, right? The government has the power to give you know the regulatory power to create the initiatives, and we are not asking to create the jobs or you know push just locals to create the jobs. You know we can attract more FDI. We can make this economy a more attractive economy, so we get more FDI, you know. So we have more jobs, and unless we are very open to international trade, right? We can't even expect our local businesses to adapt their technology, adapt their working practices. You know, I think that is also very essential because we were looking at the the Sri Lanka India Free Trade Agreement, and even when I was looking at that, we had so many items, over 1000, over 1000 items on a negative list, and this negative list is something where the so free trade agreement is basically where you can, you know, exchange goods and services without tariffs, taxes, and tariffs. But when an item is placed under the negative list, regardless of the free trade agreement, you have to pay taxes and tariffs. So the whole point of having a free trade agreement is, you know, gone. It's there's a massive trade off when you have put over 1000 items under a negative list. So this is why Dana was mentioning even on the last part. Kalaba construction materials are very high. Construction is high. So, in in in a lot of aspects, we have to increase our productivity, right? So, we last I think last podcast we were talking about how we need to improve the roads and safety standards, and you know how this traffic is an issue, right? We were talking about how you know there's no incentive for people to buy vehicles in Sri Lanka, but they don't have public transport. So, there's so many factors that are a you know disrupting our productivity, and there's those leading to people leaving because you know young boys and girls they have different aspirations. You know they they like to own a car, they like to this, but you know we have blocked that as well, right? That's not there. So you know you might as. Go to a country like Australia and pay like two, $3,000 and start getting a car. You can, which is possible. charindra chandrasena 45:05 You go to a country where you can dream. Speaker 1 45:07 Dream exactly. So even if you don't earn, right? Even if you work in a warehouse job in Australia, you can earn an easy 500 to 600. I'm not encouraging people to leave, but that's the reality. I mean, no, no. Go ahead, Charlie. No, no. charindra chandrasena 45:19 That just to add to that, the whole brand of New York City was built on that. Right now, I mean that is not relevant anymore because so many other countries have have certain, I mean have similar destinations. But when the New York when New York became the the the city where your dreams come true, if you can make it in New York, you can make it anywhere. That kind of vibe. They were selling that dream, the American dream, and the centre of the American dream is New York. Speaker 1 45:54 Yeah. charindra chandrasena 45:54 So if and now there are so many New Yorks around the world. Why wouldn't you go to one of them? Why would you stay here? Speaker 1 46:03 Correct. charindra chandrasena 46:03 Dana, you have anything to add? Otherwise, we can very very Dhananath Fernando 46:06 briefly. No, I think the entire we need to understand with this this demographic thing is a real thing. I mean, this is same as our debt. When we were speaking about the debt, not many people were not thinking about it. They were saying no, no. We will never going to default. I mean, have we ever default and all that? But now this is going to come real. It won't. I mean, there are things. No, there's a saying. No, how a country goes bankrupt slowly and suddenly. So democracy is the same. It comes slowly and then it becomes suddenly after you realise. My goodness, there's nothing happening, and it becomes suddenly. So this is also the way it's going to unfold, and it's if the numbers are true of Department of Census and Statistics, I'm I'm sure there it is. So this is going to need to change everything. Let's look at our healthcare sector. How this healthcare sector was developed, free healthcare, which is all good, which we all probably enjoy, but it was developed for non-communicable, sorry, communicable diseases long time ago, but now it's no longer the no longer the truth. There are so many non-communicable diseases like diabetes and all that, which require a lot of testing and all that. So the government cannot really bear that. So you have to have alternative models. I'm not saying the government to complete to stay away, but there are modest things have to change, and when you have ageing population from your commuting to everything, your housing to whether you need elevators or whether you need single storey houses or whatever, you have to change and have you to condense. So it's going to change everything. Like AI is, as you say, AI is changing demographic with with that also the country's profile is going to change, or else whether are we going to allow actually a more cosmopolitan country where you allow somehow people to come. I charindra chandrasena 47:48 want to take that up in a different podcast. Different podcast is a very interesting topic that that that we will dedicate an entire entire podcast. Yeah, it's not yeah. So so so whether Dhananath Fernando 47:57 are we going to moving in that direction? So all that has to be considered, and we have to get ourselves prepared. And also the pension crisis that is coming up, is it ageing population? How are can we pay the pensions? And what's going to happen to our tax revenue? And what industry? And also realistically, Chari, most of the people really don't want to work at factory floors. No, everyone wants to have a white collar job. Like so, can we create those jobs? That's what I think Anushka said. You have to create jobs, also the jobs that the people like, and also look at what happened. The IT industry, while it is having, I mean, what we learned as IT probably you know before AI. Now most of the IT jobs, I mean, they are curtailing, right? So so then now AI is impacting them. Nobody expected that to happen, right? So now things are really changing. While AI is coming, actually the it's like you call when the industrialization came. It's the blue collar workers who are worried because their jobs were the ones which was cut down by machinery, and now what is happening is your white collar jobs are being cut down, right? Because of this, so things are changing rapidly, and that's why they need also our audience need to support Advocata before you tell because we are running running out of time. Wonderful, so that's why you need to support Advocata 12,000 rupees a year, 1000 rupees a month, and again we are an independent think tank, and generally, when you are independent, you get shot by both sides. And we want to rely on the audience because then we can maintain our independence. I we agree that we always not say the popular things, but when it's nonpartisan, when it's independent, generally the both sides get hurt. But someone ultimately has to tell the truth, and there's a cost. As for anything else, there's a cost for the truth. And analysts like Arushka are very expensive. He has he has compromised his dream to live in Australia to keep him here. Those are expensive. So there's a cost. So please consider supporting us. There are multiple layers of subscription. Advocata Insiders, 12,000. 36,000, 150,000, and corporates supports us with 1.5 million. Of course, you get benefits for that multiple analytics on exchange rate, stock market, property market, all sorts of markets which is possible. So please consider us unsupporting Advocata and become an Advocata insider. I saved your time, Shari. Nice, charindra chandrasena 50:23 very smooth. All right. So thanks, Anushka, for a lot of data which we always enjoy. And Dana, thanks, Shari. As a regular of the show, and we will talk about things related to this also in the in the coming shows because very very interesting topic which which can go in different directions. Thank you for tuning in as always, and we hope you enjoyed it. Let us know your feedback and your suggestions for for future topics, and we'll try to accommodate them. Thank you and goodbye. Transcribed by https://otter.ai